Harwinder Sekhon
1793d9167a
Two bodies of work that touch the same files, so one commit. Direction and setup-size campaign (2026-09-30 → 10-01, owner's RISK-FIRST rule, written before the runs): - SIGNAL: M15 daily-trend veto (factory override 7, xau_strategy.daily_trend_veto "both"). A finished setup against a clear daily trend (closed D1 bars, Sunday stubs dropped; close vs its 50-bar EMA AND vs the close 60 kept days earlier) is removed as the last step of the core. One definition (signal_aggregator.daily_trend_series) for live, the bar replay and the twin's host side; D1 is a required frame of the M15 scan; mirrored in cuda_signal_kernels.py K2. W3 824 / +205.12R / PF 1.73 / max DD 12.4R vs 1105 / +195.79R / 1.49 / 20.9R; 2019 → 2026 1473 / +223.33R / 1.42 / 41.5R vs 2091 / +192.53R / 1.24 / 64.8R; unseen holdout −4.62R vs −6.63R. - FAILED, not shipped: the veto on M5 (W3 drawdown 10.1R → 15.2R) and on H1 (−9.7R), buy-only and sell-only on M15, the wide-stop cap (xau_strategy.wide_stop_cap_atr stays 0.0, a research knob). - New M15 pins: W2 dfc647ee…, OOS e87b6de1…, W3 ad3b0dbd…. M5 / H1 / H4 pins unchanged. --set xau_strategy.daily_trend_veto=off reproduces the previous M15 pins byte for byte. Twin and reference script MD5-equal on every window; recorder and feature-export parity re-proved; base-rate table rebuilt. - DISPLAY (books byte-identical): exposure.py — the lot size for trade_size.risk_per_trade (new config.json block, off by default, private to the owner) and the count of alerted same-direction plans still open (signals.alerted_at, read-only open_alerted_setups); the daily trend in words on Telegram, the CLI and the dashboard; signals.daily_trend logged. - providers/oanda: a date window with no bars is an empty page, not an error (a D1 pad starting on a Saturday could not be fetched). - Reports only, nothing shipped: seven context screens (no state nominated) and eight outside data sources (none adds a forecast to gold's own daily trend). - Independent verification (report section 5.13): every figure reproduced on both scripts, scoring identical to the previous commit on all four timeframes, no look-ahead. Caveats recorded there: this is a risk filter, not a more accurate direction call; nine tenths of the 2019 → 2026 gain is 2022; the neighbour clause is thin (a simple 100-day average misses the R line by 1.2R); "never adds a trade" is an observation, not a guarantee. Bug review of the whole codebase (2026-10-01). Signal path clean. 17 defects elsewhere, plus 4 found by an independent review of the fixes; all fixed, each with a test; no trade book changed: - telegram_bot: one _deliver_alert for the candle scan and the level break. The row is stamped alerted_at BEFORE the send, on a one-worker alert-db pool, and un-stamped when no chat received it or the task is cancelled mid-stamp, so two alerts at one candle close count each other and no SQLite write runs on the event loop. The 5-bar cooldown counts bars of the scan's own frame (== gpu_backtest._apply_cooldown; clock time released the 22:00 UTC bar after the settlement pause) and is restored from signals.db at start-up. The lot-size line goes to the owner's own chat only (a group the owner ran /autoscan in used to receive it). /status gains a news-model line and escapes failure details. - signal_log: mark_alerted returns the stamp it wrote; unmark_alerted; last_alerted_bars (read-only). - advisory_outcome: candle continuity is judged bar by bar inside the walk; a hole after a trade's exit no longer voids it. The stored-candle replay resolves 108 of 111 logged setups instead of 99, all equal to the live resolver's R. - providers/oanda: an empty date window is accepted only when it is 5 days or shorter and no malformed candle was skipped; a longer one is retried, then refused, instead of being cached as history with a hole. - news_engine: blank RSS titles skipped; one unreadable headline no longer costs the local model its whole batch (checked on the real bundle); model health recorded; no DeepSeek audit call in a process that does not archive; event-direction cache keyed per release; peek_week_events never fetches. - llm_client: chat_json never raises and never logs the API key (requests quotes the Authorization value in InvalidHeader; error bodies are redacted). - signal_aggregator: the scan's news block is guarded; the replay path (use_news=False) assigns exactly the values it did before. - agent_panel: PANEL_PROMPT_VERSION v2.2 — same prompt text, corrected input (event timing over the cached calendar week, headlines newest first). scripts/panel_replay.py replays the logged payload per persona; scripts/label_scan_outcomes.py counts with an ISO cutoff. - test_all.py: no ALTER TABLE … DROP COLUMN (the live box has SQLite 3.34); tests that write Parquet print a notice and return without pyarrow. Verification after the last code change: suite 632 passed, 0 failed (also with both Parquet engines blocked and FB2_BACKEND=cpu, the live box's view); the five reference MD5s reproduce on both backtesters, 0 cache fallbacks; Module 37 green; static Python 3.9 / SQLite 3.34 check clean on every touched file. Evidence: backtest/research/daily_trend_campaign_2026-09-30.md, context_screens_2026-10.md, new_inputs_2026-10.md; CLAUDE.md sections 2, 4, 6, 8, 9, 10 and 11; pair_signals/xauusd.py docstring (M15 override 7). Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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<title>ForexBot2 — Beginner's Guide</title>
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<h1>ForexBot2 — Beginner's Guide</h1>
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<div class="subtitle">Everything explained in plain words. No experience needed. · updated October 2026</div>
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<h2>1 · What is this bot?</h2>
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<p>ForexBot2 is a computer program that watches the <b>price of gold</b> all day and all night. It studies the price charts using nine different mathematical checks. When the checks agree that the price is likely to move in one direction, it sends you a message on <b>Telegram</b> telling you:</p>
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<ul>
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<li>whether to <b>buy</b> or <b>sell</b>,</li>
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<li>at what price to get in,</li>
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<li>at what price to get out if the trade goes wrong (so your loss stays small),</li>
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<li>and how to lock in profit if the trade goes well.</li>
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</ul>
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<p>Most days the bot stays quiet for hours. <b>That is normal.</b> Quiet means "nothing worth trading right now." Never trade just because you are bored.</p>
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<h2>2 · Ten words you need to know</h2>
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<p>Every trading word used in this guide (and in the bot's messages) is explained here. Come back to this table whenever you see a word you don't remember.</p>
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<table class="breakable">
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<tr><th style="width:26%">Word</th><th>Plain meaning</th></tr>
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<tr><td><b>BUY (going "long")</b></td><td>You make money if the gold price goes <b>up</b>.</td></tr>
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<tr><td><b>SELL (going "short")</b></td><td>You make money if the gold price goes <b>down</b>. Yes, that's possible — your broker lets you sell gold you don't own and buy it back cheaper later.</td></tr>
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<tr><td><b>Entry</b></td><td>The price at which you open the trade.</td></tr>
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<tr><td><b>Stop loss (SL)</b></td><td>A safety brake. You tell your broker: "if the price reaches this level, close my trade automatically." It puts a hard limit on how much one trade can lose. <b>Every trade must have one.</b></td></tr>
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<tr><td><b>Take profit (TP)</b></td><td>The opposite of a stop loss: a level where the trade closes automatically <b>with a profit</b>. In this system it is only a rough guide — see section 6.</td></tr>
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<tr><td><b>Risk, or "R"</b></td><td>The amount of money you have chosen to lose if the trade fails. If you decide to risk $20, then <b>1R = $20</b>. A trade that wins "+2R" made you $40. This is how traders measure results.</td></tr>
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<tr><td><b>Trailing stop ("trail")</b></td><td>A stop loss that <b>follows the price</b> as it moves in your favor, but never moves backwards. Explained with numbers in section 6.</td></tr>
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<tr><td><b>Timeframe (TF)</b></td><td>The size of each candle on the chart. <b>M5</b> = each candle is 5 minutes, <b>M15</b> = 15 minutes, <b>H1</b> = 1 hour, <b>H4</b> = 4 hours. Bigger timeframe = slower, calmer trading.</td></tr>
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<tr><td><b>XAU/USD</b></td><td>Just the official symbol for "gold priced in US dollars."</td></tr>
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<tr><td><b>Spread</b></td><td>The tiny difference between the buying price and the selling price. It's your broker's fee, paid on every trade.</td></tr>
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</table>
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<h2>3 · Reading a bot message</h2>
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<p>Here is a typical signal, with plain-English notes below it:</p>
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<div class="signal-box">🔍 XAU/USD Signal Analysis (H1) ← gold, on the 1-hour chart
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🟢 Grade A · BUY · XAU/USD · H1 🥇 ← how good the setup is + what to do
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📐 Direction: strong buy · Reliability:
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good · timeframes agree ← the bot's two numbers, in words
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🧭 Daily trend: rising — this buy
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goes with it ← which way gold has been heading for weeks
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📋 Indicators … ← the bot's 9 checks (you can skip this part)
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━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
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🚀 TRADE SETUP ← ↓ THIS is the part you act on ↓
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📈 Direction: BUY
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▶ Entry: 4,132.50 ← open the trade near this price
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🛑 SL: 4,088.20 ← your safety brake (stop loss)
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🧱 Already open: 1 buy plan alerted
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earlier (H1) — taking this one adds
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to the same position ← you may already be in this move
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🔄 Exit rule (tested): once price reaches
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4,159.08 (+0.6R), trail the SL $33.23
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behind the best price, moved at
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candle close only. ← how to lock in profit (see section 6)
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🎯 TP1 guide 4,176.80 (1.0R) ← rough profit target (a guide, not a rule)
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⚖️ Planned TP1 RR 1:1.0 (guide only)
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📚 Book (this setup class): 312 trades,
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58% winners, avg +0.19R per trade ← what this kind of signal did in the backtests</div>
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<ul>
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<li><b>Grade (A+, A, B, C):</b> the bot's own mark for how clean the setup is. A+ is best. It never sends anything worse than C.</li>
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<li><b>Direction and reliability:</b> plain words for the bot's two internal numbers. Direction says how strongly the checks lean one way (very strong, strong, clear, weak). Reliability says how much the bot trusts that reading (high, good, fair, low). "Timeframes agree" means the bigger and smaller charts point the same way.</li>
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<li><b>🧭 Daily trend:</b> which way the gold price has been heading over the last weeks, read from the daily chart: rising, falling, or no clear direction. A trade that goes the same way as the daily trend is swimming with the tide. On the 15-minute signals the bot no longer sends a trade that goes against a clear daily trend at all, because years of tests showed those trades earned nothing. On the other signals the line is simply something to know.</li>
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<li><b>🧱 Already open:</b> appears when the bot has already sent buy (or sell) plans that are still running. A new signal in the same direction is usually the same gold move seen again. The new signal is not a worse one, but if you took the earlier one, taking this one too means you are risking more on a single move. As a beginner, skip it, or split your usual risk between the two.</li>
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<li><b>The indicator list:</b> extra detail for curious people. You don't need to understand it to trade the signal.</li>
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<li><b>⚠️ Warning lines:</b> things the bot noticed, like high volatility. They are "be aware," not "don't trade."</li>
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<li><b>🌪 Violent-move watch:</b> now and then the bot adds a line saying the next hour could produce very big candles — usually because an important American economic number is about to come out, or the market is in an hour that is historically wild, or the price has stretched a long way from normal. It is only a "hold on tight" note. It does not change the signal, and it is not a reason to close or move your stop loss early — the bot was tested doing exactly that and it lost money. Your stop loss is already your protection; leave it where it is.</li>
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<li><b>📰 News line:</b> a short plain-English note on what is moving the gold price right now and why, written from the last few hours of headlines. It is background information, not a reason to trade.</li>
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<li><b>The trade setup at the bottom is the only part you must act on.</b></li>
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</ul>
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<h2>4 · How much money to put in (the most important section)</h2>
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<p>You never put your whole account into one trade. You decide how much you are willing to <b>lose</b>, and work backwards from there. The rule:</p>
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<div class="callout"><b>Risk 1% of your account per trade. Never more.</b> If you have $2,000, that means one trade may lose at most $20. Losing trades are a normal part of the system — 1% means a bad week stings but never hurts you badly.</div>
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<div class="example"><b>Worked example.</b><br>
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Your account: <b>$2,000</b>. Your risk: 1% = <b>$20</b>. So for this trade, 1R = $20.<br>
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The signal says: Entry 4,132.50, Stop loss 4,088.20. The gap between them is <b>$44.30 per ounce</b> of gold.<br>
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How much gold to buy: $20 ÷ $44.30 = <b>0.45 ounces</b>.<br>
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Now, whatever happens: if the price falls to the stop loss, you lose about $20 — and no more. If the trade wins 2R, you make about $40.</div>
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<p class="small">Most broker apps have a built-in calculator: enter the stop-loss price and the amount you want to risk ($20), and it works out the position size for you. Use it — it avoids mistakes. (On many platforms gold is traded in "lots," where 0.01 lot = 1 ounce.) The bot's owner can also switch on a <b>📏 Size</b> line that does this sum for their own risk limit; it is shown only in the owner's private chat, so if you do not see it, use the calculator.</p>
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<h2>5 · What to do when a signal arrives — step by step</h2>
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<ol>
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<li><b>Check the timeframe</b> in the first line. Only act on the one timeframe you have chosen to follow (see section 7). Ignore the rest.</li>
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<li><b>Work out your position size</b> using the 1% rule above. Do this before anything else.</li>
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<li><b>Open the trade</b> in your broker app, in the direction shown (BUY or SELL), at the current market price. Try to act soon after the message; if the price has already run far past the entry price, skip the trade — another signal will come.</li>
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<li><b>Set the stop loss immediately</b>, at the exact SL price in the message. Not "in your head" — in the app. Gold can move fast, and the stop loss is what protects you while you sleep.</li>
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<li><b>Then manage the trade with the trailing stop</b>, explained next.</li>
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</ol>
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<h2>6 · The trailing stop — how winners get paid</h2>
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<p>The take-profit price (TP1) in the message is only a guide. The system makes its money by <b>letting winning trades run</b> and following them with a moving safety brake. Every signal message tells you exactly when to start and how far behind to follow. Here is the idea with numbers:</p>
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<div class="example"><b>Example.</b> You bought gold at <b>4,132</b>, stop loss at <b>4,088</b> (risking $44 per ounce).<br>
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The message says: <i>"once price hits 4,159, trail SL $33 behind best price."</i><br><br>
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<b>Step 1 — wait.</b> Until gold reaches 4,159, do nothing. If it falls to 4,088 first, the stop loss closes the trade. That loss is normal and already budgeted.<br>
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<b>Step 2 — the price reaches 4,159.</b> Now move your stop loss up to 4,159 − 33 = <b>4,126</b>. From here on, the worst case is roughly break-even.<br>
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<b>Step 3 — keep following.</b> Each time the price makes a new high, move the stop up so it stays $33 below that high. Price climbs to 4,180? Stop goes to 4,147 — profit is now locked in. Price climbs to 4,210? Stop goes to 4,177.<br>
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<b>Step 4 — the price turns.</b> Eventually gold falls back $33 from its best point and hits your stop. The trade closes by itself, and you keep everything above your entry. <b>You never decide when to take profit — the trail decides.</b></div>
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<ul>
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<li>Only move the stop <b>up</b> (for a BUY). Never move it back down. For a SELL, everything is mirrored: the stop only moves down.</li>
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<li>Move it when a candle finishes, not every second. Checking once per candle (every hour, on the 1-hour timeframe) is enough.</li>
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<li>Many broker apps can do this automatically — look for a "trailing stop" order and set the distance from the message.</li>
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</ul>
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<h2>7 · Which timeframe should you follow?</h2>
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<p>The bot sends signals from several chart speeds. As a beginner, <b>follow only the 1-hour (H1) signals</b> and ignore the others. Here is why:</p>
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<table>
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<tr><th></th><th>M5 (5-minute)</th><th>M15 (15-minute)</th><th>H1 (1-hour) ★ start here</th></tr>
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<tr><td>Signals per week</td><td>about 10</td><td>about 5</td><td>about 2</td></tr>
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<tr><td>A trade usually lasts</td><td>a few hours</td><td>about half a day</td><td>half a day to a few days</td></tr>
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<tr><td>Time you have to react</td><td>1–2 minutes</td><td>up to 15 minutes</td><td>up to an hour</td></tr>
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<tr><td>Suits</td><td>full-time / automated</td><td>experienced, quick</td><td>anyone with a job and a life</td></tr>
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</table>
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<ul>
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<li><b>H1 is forgiving.</b> You have up to an hour to act on a message, and small delays barely matter. On the 5-minute signals, being two minutes late already costs real money — they are not for manual beginners.</li>
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<li><b>H1 trades are held longer</b> — often overnight, sometimes over days. That is normal. Your stop loss is working for you while you sleep.</li>
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<li><b>H1 is BUY-only.</b> All H1 SELL signals are blocked (since 2026-09-03) because they were a losing side on this timeframe — expect to see BUY signals here, never SELL.</li>
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<li><b>M5 also holds back some SELL signals</b> — specifically while the market is in a choppy "transitioning" phase, since those shorts tested poorly.</li>
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<li><b>M15 got a small tune-up on 2026-09-09</b> — one of its nine indicators (RSI) now counts for half as much, which means a few more M15 signals per week. Nothing changes in how you act on a signal.</li>
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<li><b>M15 now respects the daily trend (since 2026-09-30).</b> A 15-minute trade that goes against a clear daily trend is no longer sent. That removes about one signal in four, the ones that made no money in the tests, and makes the bad stretches shorter. Nothing changes in how you act on the signals you do receive.</li>
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<li><b>Never take the same signal on two timeframes.</b> They are usually the same gold move seen at different zoom levels. Taking both doubles your risk, not your profit.</li>
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</ul>
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<h2>8 · What to expect — read this before your first trade</h2>
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<ul>
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<li><b>You will lose about 4 trades out of every 10.</b> That is how the system is designed. Losses are small (1R each) and wins are bigger on average. The profit comes from many trades added together, not from any single one.</li>
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<li><b>Losing streaks happen.</b> Five or six losses in a row will happen at some point every year. It does not mean the system is broken. This is exactly why each loss is capped at 1% of your account.</li>
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<li><b>Expect a rough patch.</b> At some point in a normal year, your account will likely be around 10% below its best point before recovering. If a 10% dip would make you panic or bet bigger to "win it back," trade smaller (0.5% risk) or don't trade.</li>
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<li><b>Judge the system over months, not days.</b> On the 1-hour timeframe there are only ~3 trades a week. One bad week means nothing; look at results per quarter.</li>
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<li><b>Real results will be a little worse than tests.</b> The bot's numbers come from careful historical testing, but tests can't include your reaction speed or your broker's exact prices. Expect a bit less, not a bit more.</li>
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</ul>
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<h2>9 · The five rules</h2>
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<div class="callout red">
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<b>Break these and no signal system can save you.</b>
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<ol style="margin-bottom:0">
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<li><b>Risk 1% per trade, always.</b> Never increase the size to win back a loss.</li>
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<li><b>Every trade gets a stop loss in the app, at entry time.</b> No exceptions, no "mental" stops.</li>
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<li><b>One timeframe, one open trade at a time.</b></li>
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<li><b>Missed the entry? Let it go.</b> Chasing a price that already moved turns a good trade into a gamble.</li>
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<li><b>Only trade money you can afford to lose completely.</b> Never rent, savings you need, or borrowed money.</li>
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</ol>
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<div class="callout green"><b>A good first month:</b> follow the H1 signals with the smallest position size your broker allows (or a demo account), write down every trade, and practice the trailing stop until it feels routine. Only then trade at 1% risk.</div>
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<div class="disclaimer"><b>⚠️ Risk warning.</b> This bot and guide are for education and research only. They are <b>not financial advice</b>. Trading gold and currencies involves a high risk of losing money, and most beginners lose. Past results — including tested results — do not guarantee future profits. Never trade money you cannot afford to lose. If you are unsure, speak to a licensed financial adviser.</div>
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