Files
ForexBot2/docs/beginner_guide.html
T
Harwinder Sekhon 2ac73017b8 xauusd M15: halve the RSI regime multiplier in every regime (M15 override 5, rule-1 validated)
Owner-approved 2026-09-09 after the pre-registered weight test
(backtest/research/weight_test_2026-09-09.md). M15-only
technical.regime_weights_override = the shipped table with rsi x 0.5
(0.5 trending family / 0.75 ranging / 0.5 transitioning), derived in the
factory and pinned literally by the Module 9 equivalence test; a Module 33
test locks that M5/H1/H4 carry no override.

Evidence, 2-year Oanda window 2024-09-05..2026-09-05 at $0.65: 793/+117.62R
PF 1.41 -> 931/+146.14R PF 1.43 (fixed halves +27.9/+0.6R vs control); OOS
2024-06-01..2025-03-30 300/+40.59R PF 1.38 -> 355/+60.67R PF 1.49; 3-year
+151.90R -> +186.61R (max DD 15.5 -> 19.3R, 2026 -4R). Parity: the factory
run with no --set flag reproduces the validated candidate books byte-for-
byte (2-yr MD5 d185f099..., OOS 6f8f24b4...). M15 canonical book re-pinned
to backtest/oanda_m15_2yr_065_20260909.csv. Docs carry a one-line note.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01Nc9Ninzyi18QkWezrxeBvB
2026-09-09 17:36:41 -04:00

171 lines
16 KiB
HTML
Raw Blame History

This file contains ambiguous Unicode characters
This file contains Unicode characters that might be confused with other characters. If you think that this is intentional, you can safely ignore this warning. Use the Escape button to reveal them.
<!DOCTYPE html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
<meta charset="utf-8">
<title>ForexBot2 — Beginner's Guide</title>
<style>
@page {
size: A4;
margin: 22mm 18mm;
@bottom-center { content: "ForexBot2 Beginner's Guide — page " counter(page) " of " counter(pages); font-size: 8pt; color: #888; }
}
* { box-sizing: border-box; }
body { font-family: "DejaVu Sans", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 1.65; color: #1c2733; margin: 0; }
h1 { font-size: 21pt; margin: 0 0 2mm; color: #0d1b2a; }
.subtitle { color: #5a6b7c; font-size: 10.5pt; margin-bottom: 8mm; }
h2 { font-size: 13.5pt; color: #0d1b2a; border-bottom: 2px solid #d4a017; padding-bottom: 1.2mm; margin: 8mm 0 3mm; page-break-after: avoid; }
h3 { font-size: 11pt; margin: 5mm 0 1.5mm; color: #23374d; page-break-after: avoid; }
p { margin: 0 0 2.8mm; }
table { border-collapse: collapse; width: 100%; margin: 3mm 0 4mm; font-size: 9.3pt; page-break-inside: avoid; }
th { background: #0d1b2a; color: #fff; text-align: left; padding: 1.8mm 2.5mm; font-weight: 600; }
td { border-bottom: 1px solid #dde4ea; padding: 1.8mm 2.5mm; vertical-align: top; }
tr:nth-child(even) td { background: #f4f7fa; }
table.breakable { page-break-inside: auto; }
table.breakable tr { page-break-inside: avoid; }
.signal-box { background: #f4f7fa; border: 1px solid #c9d4de; border-left: 4px solid #d4a017; border-radius: 2mm; padding: 3.5mm 4.5mm; font-family: "DejaVu Sans Mono", monospace; font-size: 8.6pt; line-height: 1.55; white-space: pre-wrap; margin: 3mm 0 4mm; page-break-inside: avoid; }
.callout { background: #fdf6e3; border: 1px solid #e8d49a; border-left: 4px solid #d4a017; border-radius: 2mm; padding: 3mm 4.5mm; margin: 3mm 0 4mm; page-break-inside: avoid; }
.callout.red { background: #fdf0ee; border-color: #eab4ac; border-left-color: #c0392b; }
.callout.green { background: #eef7ee; border-color: #b3d9b3; border-left-color: #2e7d32; }
.callout b:first-child { display: block; margin-bottom: 1mm; }
.example { background: #eef2f6; border-radius: 2mm; padding: 3mm 4.5mm; margin: 2mm 0 4mm; page-break-inside: avoid; }
.example b:first-child { color: #23374d; }
ul, ol { margin: 0 0 3mm; padding-left: 6mm; }
li { margin-bottom: 1.6mm; }
code { font-family: "DejaVu Sans Mono", monospace; font-size: 8.8pt; background: #eef2f6; padding: 0.3mm 1.2mm; border-radius: 1mm; }
.small { font-size: 8.5pt; color: #5a6b7c; }
.disclaimer { border: 1.5px solid #c0392b; border-radius: 2mm; padding: 3.5mm 4.5mm; margin-top: 6mm; font-size: 9pt; page-break-inside: avoid; }
.disclaimer b { color: #c0392b; }
</style>
</head>
<body>
<h1>ForexBot2 — Beginner's Guide</h1>
<div class="subtitle">Everything explained in plain words. No experience needed. &nbsp;·&nbsp; July 2026</div>
<h2>1 · What is this bot?</h2>
<p>ForexBot2 is a computer program that watches the <b>price of gold</b> all day and all night. It studies the price charts using nine different mathematical checks. When the checks agree that the price is likely to move in one direction, it sends you a message on <b>Telegram</b> telling you:</p>
<ul>
<li>whether to <b>buy</b> or <b>sell</b>,</li>
<li>at what price to get in,</li>
<li>at what price to get out if the trade goes wrong (so your loss stays small),</li>
<li>and how to lock in profit if the trade goes well.</li>
</ul>
<p>Most days the bot stays quiet for hours. <b>That is normal.</b> Quiet means "nothing worth trading right now." Never trade just because you are bored.</p>
<h2>2 · Ten words you need to know</h2>
<p>Every trading word used in this guide (and in the bot's messages) is explained here. Come back to this table whenever you see a word you don't remember.</p>
<table class="breakable">
<tr><th style="width:26%">Word</th><th>Plain meaning</th></tr>
<tr><td><b>BUY (going "long")</b></td><td>You make money if the gold price goes <b>up</b>.</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>SELL (going "short")</b></td><td>You make money if the gold price goes <b>down</b>. Yes, that's possible — your broker lets you sell gold you don't own and buy it back cheaper later.</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Entry</b></td><td>The price at which you open the trade.</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Stop loss (SL)</b></td><td>A safety brake. You tell your broker: "if the price reaches this level, close my trade automatically." It puts a hard limit on how much one trade can lose. <b>Every trade must have one.</b></td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Take profit (TP)</b></td><td>The opposite of a stop loss: a level where the trade closes automatically <b>with a profit</b>. In this system it is only a rough guide — see section 6.</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Risk, or "R"</b></td><td>The amount of money you have chosen to lose if the trade fails. If you decide to risk $20, then <b>1R = $20</b>. A trade that wins "+2R" made you $40. This is how traders measure results.</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Trailing stop ("trail")</b></td><td>A stop loss that <b>follows the price</b> as it moves in your favor, but never moves backwards. Explained with numbers in section 6.</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Timeframe (TF)</b></td><td>The size of each candle on the chart. <b>M5</b> = each candle is 5 minutes, <b>M15</b> = 15 minutes, <b>H1</b> = 1 hour, <b>H4</b> = 4 hours. Bigger timeframe = slower, calmer trading.</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>XAU/USD</b></td><td>Just the official symbol for "gold priced in US dollars."</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Spread</b></td><td>The tiny difference between the buying price and the selling price. It's your broker's fee, paid on every trade.</td></tr>
</table>
<h2>3 · Reading a bot message</h2>
<p>Here is a typical signal, with plain-English notes below it:</p>
<div class="signal-box">🔍 XAU/USD Signal Analysis (H1) ← gold, on the 1-hour chart
🟢 BUY Grade: A | 64% confidence ← what to do + how good the setup looks
✅ MTF aligned ← bigger and smaller charts agree
📋 Indicators … ← the bot's 9 checks (you can skip this part)
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🚀 TRADE SETUP ← ↓ THIS is the part you act on ↓
📈 Direction: BUY
▶ Entry: 4,132.50 ← open the trade near this price
🛑 SL: 4,088.20 ← your safety brake (stop loss)
🎯 TP1: 4,176.80 ← rough profit target (a guide, not a rule)
🔄 Trail: once price hits 4,159.08,
trail SL $33.23 behind best price ← how to lock in profit (see section 6)</div>
<ul>
<li><b>Grade (A+, A, B, C):</b> the bot's own mark for how clean the setup is. A+ is best. It never sends anything worse than C.</li>
<li><b>Confidence and the indicator list:</b> extra detail for curious people. You don't need to understand it to trade the signal.</li>
<li><b>⚠️ Warning lines:</b> things the bot noticed, like high volatility. They are "be aware," not "don't trade."</li>
<li><b>🌪 Violent-move watch:</b> now and then the bot adds a line saying the next hour could produce very big candles — usually because an important American economic number is about to come out, or the market is in an hour that is historically wild, or the price has stretched a long way from normal. It is only a "hold on tight" note. It does not change the signal, and it is not a reason to close or move your stop loss early — the bot was tested doing exactly that and it lost money. Your stop loss is already your protection; leave it where it is.</li>
<li><b>📰 News line:</b> a short plain-English note on what is moving the gold price right now and why, written from the last few hours of headlines. It is background information, not a reason to trade.</li>
<li><b>The trade setup at the bottom is the only part you must act on.</b></li>
</ul>
<h2>4 · How much money to put in (the most important section)</h2>
<p>You never put your whole account into one trade. You decide how much you are willing to <b>lose</b>, and work backwards from there. The rule:</p>
<div class="callout"><b>Risk 1% of your account per trade. Never more.</b> If you have $2,000, that means one trade may lose at most $20. Losing trades are a normal part of the system — 1% means a bad week stings but never hurts you badly.</div>
<div class="example"><b>Worked example.</b><br>
Your account: <b>$2,000</b>. Your risk: 1% = <b>$20</b>. So for this trade, 1R = $20.<br>
The signal says: Entry 4,132.50, Stop loss 4,088.20. The gap between them is <b>$44.30 per ounce</b> of gold.<br>
How much gold to buy: $20 ÷ $44.30 = <b>0.45 ounces</b>.<br>
Now, whatever happens: if the price falls to the stop loss, you lose about $20 — and no more. If the trade wins 2R, you make about $40.</div>
<p class="small">Most broker apps have a built-in calculator: enter the stop-loss price and the amount you want to risk ($20), and it works out the position size for you. Use it — it avoids mistakes. (On many platforms gold is traded in "lots," where 0.01 lot = 1 ounce.)</p>
<h2>5 · What to do when a signal arrives — step by step</h2>
<ol>
<li><b>Check the timeframe</b> in the first line. Only act on the one timeframe you have chosen to follow (see section 7). Ignore the rest.</li>
<li><b>Work out your position size</b> using the 1% rule above. Do this before anything else.</li>
<li><b>Open the trade</b> in your broker app, in the direction shown (BUY or SELL), at the current market price. Try to act soon after the message; if the price has already run far past the entry price, skip the trade — another signal will come.</li>
<li><b>Set the stop loss immediately</b>, at the exact SL price in the message. Not "in your head" — in the app. Gold can move fast, and the stop loss is what protects you while you sleep.</li>
<li><b>Then manage the trade with the trailing stop</b>, explained next.</li>
</ol>
<h2>6 · The trailing stop — how winners get paid</h2>
<p>The take-profit price (TP1) in the message is only a guide. The system makes its money by <b>letting winning trades run</b> and following them with a moving safety brake. Every signal message tells you exactly when to start and how far behind to follow. Here is the idea with numbers:</p>
<div class="example"><b>Example.</b> You bought gold at <b>4,132</b>, stop loss at <b>4,088</b> (risking $44 per ounce).<br>
The message says: <i>"once price hits 4,159, trail SL $33 behind best price."</i><br><br>
<b>Step 1 — wait.</b> Until gold reaches 4,159, do nothing. If it falls to 4,088 first, the stop loss closes the trade. That loss is normal and already budgeted.<br>
<b>Step 2 — the price reaches 4,159.</b> Now move your stop loss up to 4,159 − 33 = <b>4,126</b>. From here on, the worst case is roughly break-even.<br>
<b>Step 3 — keep following.</b> Each time the price makes a new high, move the stop up so it stays $33 below that high. Price climbs to 4,180? Stop goes to 4,147 — profit is now locked in. Price climbs to 4,210? Stop goes to 4,177.<br>
<b>Step 4 — the price turns.</b> Eventually gold falls back $33 from its best point and hits your stop. The trade closes by itself, and you keep everything above your entry. <b>You never decide when to take profit — the trail decides.</b></div>
<ul>
<li>Only move the stop <b>up</b> (for a BUY). Never move it back down. For a SELL, everything is mirrored: the stop only moves down.</li>
<li>Move it when a candle finishes, not every second. Checking once per candle (every hour, on the 1-hour timeframe) is enough.</li>
<li>Many broker apps can do this automatically — look for a "trailing stop" order and set the distance from the message.</li>
</ul>
<h2>7 · Which timeframe should you follow?</h2>
<p>The bot sends signals from several chart speeds. As a beginner, <b>follow only the 1-hour (H1) signals</b> and ignore the others. Here is why:</p>
<table>
<tr><th></th><th>M5 (5-minute)</th><th>M15 (15-minute)</th><th>H1 (1-hour) ★ start here</th></tr>
<tr><td>Signals per week</td><td>about 10</td><td>about 10</td><td>about 3</td></tr>
<tr><td>A trade usually lasts</td><td>a few hours</td><td>about half a day</td><td>half a day to a few days</td></tr>
<tr><td>Time you have to react</td><td>1–2 minutes</td><td>up to 15 minutes</td><td>up to an hour</td></tr>
<tr><td>Suits</td><td>full-time / automated</td><td>experienced, quick</td><td>anyone with a job and a life</td></tr>
</table>
<ul>
<li><b>H1 is forgiving.</b> You have up to an hour to act on a message, and small delays barely matter. On the 5-minute signals, being two minutes late already costs real money — they are not for manual beginners.</li>
<li><b>H1 trades are held longer</b> — often overnight, sometimes over days. That is normal. Your stop loss is working for you while you sleep.</li>
<li><b>H1 is BUY-only.</b> All H1 SELL signals are blocked (since 2026-09-03) because they were a losing side on this timeframe — expect to see BUY signals here, never SELL.</li>
<li><b>M5 also holds back some SELL signals</b> — specifically while the market is in a choppy "transitioning" phase, since those shorts tested poorly.</li>
<li><b>M15 got a small tune-up on 2026-09-09</b> — one of its nine indicators (RSI) now counts for half as much, which means a few more M15 signals per week. Nothing changes in how you act on a signal.</li>
<li><b>Never take the same signal on two timeframes.</b> They are usually the same gold move seen at different zoom levels. Taking both doubles your risk, not your profit.</li>
</ul>
<h2>8 · What to expect — read this before your first trade</h2>
<ul>
<li><b>You will lose about 4 trades out of every 10.</b> That is how the system is designed. Losses are small (1R each) and wins are bigger on average. The profit comes from many trades added together, not from any single one.</li>
<li><b>Losing streaks happen.</b> Five or six losses in a row will happen at some point every year. It does not mean the system is broken. This is exactly why each loss is capped at 1% of your account.</li>
<li><b>Expect a rough patch.</b> At some point in a normal year, your account will likely be around 10% below its best point before recovering. If a 10% dip would make you panic or bet bigger to "win it back," trade smaller (0.5% risk) or don't trade.</li>
<li><b>Judge the system over months, not days.</b> On the 1-hour timeframe there are only ~3 trades a week. One bad week means nothing; look at results per quarter.</li>
<li><b>Real results will be a little worse than tests.</b> The bot's numbers come from careful historical testing, but tests can't include your reaction speed or your broker's exact prices. Expect a bit less, not a bit more.</li>
</ul>
<h2>9 · The five rules</h2>
<div class="callout red">
<b>Break these and no signal system can save you.</b>
<ol style="margin-bottom:0">
<li><b>Risk 1% per trade, always.</b> Never increase the size to win back a loss.</li>
<li><b>Every trade gets a stop loss in the app, at entry time.</b> No exceptions, no "mental" stops.</li>
<li><b>One timeframe, one open trade at a time.</b></li>
<li><b>Missed the entry? Let it go.</b> Chasing a price that already moved turns a good trade into a gamble.</li>
<li><b>Only trade money you can afford to lose completely.</b> Never rent, savings you need, or borrowed money.</li>
</ol>
</div>
<div class="callout green"><b>A good first month:</b> follow the H1 signals with the smallest position size your broker allows (or a demo account), write down every trade, and practice the trailing stop until it feels routine. Only then trade at 1% risk.</div>
<div class="disclaimer"><b>⚠️ Risk warning.</b> This bot and guide are for education and research only. They are <b>not financial advice</b>. Trading gold and currencies involves a high risk of losing money, and most beginners lose. Past results — including tested results — do not guarantee future profits. Never trade money you cannot afford to lose. If you are unsure, speak to a licensed financial adviser.</div>
</body>
</html>