ForexBot2/backtest/research/signal_log_review_2026-09-17.md

# Live signal-log review — 2026-09-17

**Source evidence:** `logs/signals.db` copied from the live server on 2026-09-17 (rows
2026-09-04 00:59 → 2026-09-17 13:25 UTC; 5,487 rows, 5,481 `scan` + 6 `failed`, 0 `blocked`;
telegram 3,458 / dashboard 2,029). Opened read-only. Cross-checked with
`analyze_signal_log.py --parity | --scan-outcomes | --stored-candles` (all read-only), and with a
live-vs-backtest parity replay of the same window through `backtest/gpu_backtest.py` at HEAD
(`5521998`). No tuned value is proposed; this is a health check and a descriptive scorecard.

## Headline

1. **Live equals backtest.** Over 2026-09-06 → 2026-09-17 the validated code produced 29 trades;
   26 of them appear in the live log on the same bar with the same direction, grade and entry,
   and the live advisory R agrees with the backtest R to within 0.14 (mean difference −0.006 over
   23 resolved matches). The 3 backtest-only trades are the Sep 9 bot outage (2) and one M15 bar
   scanned live on Sep 8 with the pre-RSI-change M15 engine (1). All 20 live-only setups are
   consecutive-bar re-entries that fall inside the backtester's 5-bar entry cooldown.
2. **The raw advisory book reads −7.15R over 37 resolved setups, but that number counts cluster
   re-entries the validated book never takes.** The like-for-like views are flat: cooldown-equivalent
   live book −1.62R over 25 resolved (PF 0.84); backtest over the same window +1.09R over 29 trades
   (M15 −0.32R / 13, M5 +2.43R / 15, H1 −1.01R / 1, H4 0). Against the two-year books, a 12–15 trade
   fortnight summing between −0.7R and +2.4R sits at the 25th–49th percentile: an ordinary fortnight.
   The 12 resolved cooldown re-entries alone cost −5.54R.
3. **The market was a one-way bear fortnight with an FOMC hike in it:** 4,477 → 4,367 (−2.5%),
   low 4,235 on Sep 16, daily ranges of 12–30 ATR, then +95$ on Sep 17. Every directional statistic
   below is drift-adjusted against the same-timeframe mean move; the raw 24 h drift was −4.2 ATR on M5.
4. **Direction vs market.** At 1–4 h the composite carried no information this fortnight (Spearman
   rank correlation of score with the 4 h move ≈ 0 on every timeframe). At 24 h it was *inversely*
   related to the move on all three timeframes (M5 ρ = −0.11, M15 −0.20, H1 −0.33, bootstrap CIs
   exclude zero, n = 1,734 / 570 / 150 unique scans): high scores marked bounce tops in the
   downtrend and deep negative scores marked lows that bounced. This is the same pattern the
   2026-09-08 review saw in 16 of 18 episodes, now with n. It is a two-week bear-market reading,
   not a verdict on the two-year edge, and it is the one hypothesis worth a proper in-book test.
5. **AI panel.** 34 unique setups carried a panel (27 resolved). Skipping the macro persona's OPPOSE
   would have avoided 7 resolved trades worth −2.52R (kept book −2.82R vs −5.35R), but the same
   opposed trades moved *in the trade's favour* at 24 h (drift-adjusted hit 4/5) and 6 further
   OPPOSE verdicts are on the Sep 17 long cluster the backtester currently marks +1.13R. Technical
   (79% support), risk (79% oppose) and contrarian (65% oppose) are near-constant voters. Verdict
   confidence is uncalibrated (62% / 50% / 60% correct across the three bands). No evidence either
   way at this n; keep logging.
6. **Delivery findings** (no book impact): the dashboard daemon has run stale code (`2ac7301`) since
   Sep 10 13:28 while the bot moved to `2836024` on Sep 14, and it was down from Sep 7 02:20 to
   Sep 10 13:28; the bot was down Sep 9 00:05 → 19:36 UTC (two validated trades missed, +0.37R);
   the live pipeline has no entry cooldown, so consecutive-bar setups are logged, scored and (about
   one in three) re-alerted; the backtester's CSV labels the gold ATR setups `GENERIC` while live
   stamps them `XAU_ATR` (geometry and R identical).

## Method

- Rows deduped to the first row per (timeframe, bar label); `bar_ts` NULL on 365 rows (354 from the
  pre-Sep-7 logging code) falls back to `indicators_json[tf].timestamp`; 11 rows with no indicators
  (price 0) dropped; `scan_kind in ('blocked','failed')` skipped. Unique bars: M5 2,289, M15 763,
  H1 191, H4 53.
- Setups: 49 unique (M5 24, M15 24, H1 1, H4 0). Outcome = the DB's own advisory model
  (`advisory_r_multiple`, net R at $0.65, next-open entry, stop first, close-only trail): 37 RESOLVED
  (−7.15R, reproduced exactly), 11 PENDING (the Sep 17 long cluster), 1 UNRESOLVABLE.
- Forward moves: `scan_outcomes` (`fwd_{1h,4h,24h}_atr`, + = up; 24 h only where `complete = 1`).
  "Move" = move in the signal's direction; "excess" = the same after subtracting the same-timeframe
  mean move over all scans (the drift); "adj hit" = share of excess > 0.
- Three book views: (1) every unique setup; (2) cooldown-equivalent = after an accepted setup, skip
  the next 5 primary bars (the backtester's rule); (3) alerted = the bot's dedup replayed on the
  telegram rows (fingerprint (signal, direction) per timeframe; re-alert after 3,600 s, on a grade
  upgrade, or when the entry moved ≥ 0.5 × last risk; grade ≥ C; setup required; state reset at
  each restart = code-version change). View 3 is a reconstruction; `logs/telegram.log` on the live
  box is the ground truth.
- Bootstrap null: the M15 and M5 two-year books regenerated offline from the kept cache with the
  section-9 harness (`--start 2024-09-05 --end 2026-09-05 --spread 0.65 --workers 12`), MD5s
  `d185f099482a07f29502cb5a371a9bbf` and `29120a1ee32979431d062f210d41a9d1` (both equal to the
  pinned values; `Backend: NumPy CPU fallback`, `GPU cache fallbacks: 0`); 20,000 fixed-n resamples
  of per-trade R plus every 13-calendar-day window of the book.
- Parity replay: `venv/bin/python backtest/gpu_backtest.py --pair XAUUSD --spread 0.65 --workers 12
  --primary-tf {15min,5min,1h,4h} --start 2026-09-06 --export-csv ... --detail` (no `--end`, so the
  end is the run time; no `--set`). New cache windows, cited here and therefore kept:
  `oanda_XAU_USD_{5min,15min,1h}_20260706_20260917.parquet`,
  `oanda_XAU_USD_4h_20260115_20260917.parquet`, `oanda_XAU_USD_1d_20221106_20260917.parquet`.
  `Backend: NumPy CPU fallback`, `GPU cache fallbacks: 0` on all four runs. The fetch logged two
  interior gaps: M5/M15 2026-09-07 18:15–22:00 (Labor Day, Oanda published no bars — matches the 46
  stale-bar rows live logged) and H4 2026-04-02 → 04-05 (Good Friday). Matching key: (timeframe,
  backtest entry bar − 1 bar) == live bar label.
- Nothing was written to `signals.db`; `scripts/backfill_signal_outcomes.py` and
  `scripts/label_scan_outcomes.py` were run with `--dry-run` only.

## 1. Integrity and coverage

| Check | Result |
|---|---|
| Surface parity (1,953 shared bars) | 0 signal, grade or setup-presence divergences; 8 score differences, none changing a signal or grade: 6 on H1/H4 bars scored by the two code versions (≤ 0.2 pts on H1, up to 7 pts on H4 at Sep 15 00:00: consistent with different confirmation-frame seeding), 2 on the dashboard's Sep 10 13:28 restart catch-up |
| Code versions live | telegram: c44813f → de36b10 (Sep 7 15:08) → 3afc62c → 28b591d (Sep 8) → 2ac7301 (Sep 9 21:45) → **2836024 (Sep 14 01:46)**. dashboard: c44813f (26 rows, Sep 7 01:00–02:20), then **2ac7301 from Sep 10 13:28 to now** |
| Dashboard daemon | down Sep 7 02:20 → Sep 10 13:28 (3.5 days); since then on stale code. Still logs 11 "Primary timeframe stale" M5 rows every day at 21:xx UTC (the settlement pause; a scheduled closure in 2836024) |
| Telegram bot | down Sep 9 00:05 → 19:36 UTC. Cost: M15 BUY B Sep 9 05:45 (+0.23R) and M5 BUY A Sep 9 06:00 (+0.14R) in the backtest, never scanned live |
| Labor Day (Sep 7) | Oanda published no bars 18:25–22:00 UTC (confirmed by the fresh fetch); 46 stale-bar rows logged; no holiday awareness (known) |
| Failed scans | 6 rows at 06:11–06:17 UTC on Sep 15 and Sep 16, both surfaces, primary frame missing: an Oanda blip longer than the retry ladder's 45 s budget. 11 pre-ladder "data unavailable" rows on Sep 4/7 |
| Scan-outcome labelling | 2,467 unique bars complete, 418 labelled but < 72 h old, 408 unlabelled and < 25 h old, 3 unlabelled and older. Last label 13:20 today: the labeler is healthy |
| Blocked scans | none logged (`log_blocked_scans` off); the Monday 00:xx UTC hours are therefore empty by design |
| Engine fingerprints | M15 `dab4d03725d8` → `536f84340ea0` at Sep 9 21:45 (RSI × 0.5). M5, H1, H4 unchanged all window |
| Panel | 35 rows, ≤ 9 per day against the cap of 20, all cache MISS, all `verdict_source = macro` |

## 2. Market context

| UTC day | open | high | low | close | change $ | range / ATR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4 | 4,480 | 4,491 | 4,366 | 4,431 | −49 | 30 |
| Sep 7 (Labor Day) | 4,424 | 4,430 | 4,381 | 4,423 | 0 | 13 |
| Sep 8 | 4,423 | 4,443 | 4,345 | 4,350 | −73 | 20 |
| Sep 9 (bot down) | 4,350 | 4,418 | 4,347 | 4,394 | +44 | 24 |
| Sep 10 | 4,394 | 4,435 | 4,311 | 4,315 | −79 | 25 |
| Sep 11 | 4,315 | 4,403 | 4,292 | 4,349 | +33 | 20 |
| Sep 14 | 4,333 | 4,355 | 4,254 | 4,288 | −45 | 21 |
| Sep 15 | 4,288 | 4,318 | 4,261 | 4,284 | −5 | 14 |
| Sep 16 (FOMC hike 18:00) | 4,284 | 4,367 | 4,235 | 4,272 | −12 | 30 |
| Sep 17 (to 13:20) | 4,272 | 4,381 | 4,267 | 4,367 | +95 | 23 |

Drift baseline (mean forward move over **all** unique scans, ATR units, + = up):

| tf | 1 h | 4 h | 24 h |
|---|---|---|---|
| M5 | −0.23 (n 1,992) | −0.63 (1,998) | −4.21 (1,734) |
| M15 | −0.09 (661) | −0.36 (667) | −2.31 (570) |
| H1 | −0.06 (161) | −0.22 (167) | −0.75 (150) |

## 3. Direction and score against the realised move (all unique scans)

Move is measured in the signal's direction; excess is after removing the drift above.

| tf | direction | n | 1 h move / excess | 4 h move / excess / hit | 24 h move / excess / adj hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M5 | LONG | 18 | −1.10 / −0.87 | −1.27 / −0.64 / 39% | −6.83 / −2.62 / 47% |
| M5 | SHORT | 66 | +0.35 / +0.12 | +0.14 / −0.49 / 53% | −1.13 / −5.34 / 31% |
| M15 | LONG | 7 | −0.81 / −0.72 | −0.31 / +0.05 / 43% | −4.03 / −1.72 / 33% |
| M15 | SHORT | 39 | +0.27 / +0.18 | +0.60 / +0.23 / 69% | −0.68 / −2.98 / 30% |
| H1 | SHORT | 4 | −0.25 / −0.31 | −0.66 / −0.88 / 50% | −2.05 / −2.80 / 0% |

Reading: M15 shorts were right for about four hours (69% hit, +0.23 ATR excess) and wrong by the
next day (the bear-trend lows they sold bounced). Longs were wrong at every horizon. Nothing here
beats drift at 24 h.

Score buckets (direction = sign of score, includes NEUTRAL scans):

| tf | bucket | n | 4 h move / excess | 24 h move / excess / adj hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M5 | ≥ 35 | 22 | −1.83 / −1.19 | −13.06 / −8.85 / 18% |
| M5 | 25..35 | 47 | −1.11 / −0.48 | −9.61 / −5.40 / 28% |
| M5 | −35..−25 | 101 | −0.95 / −1.58 | +0.11 / −4.10 / 31% |
| M5 | ≤ −35 | 41 | −2.06 / −2.69 | −0.15 / −4.36 / 25% |
| M15 | 15..25 | 56 | −0.68 / −0.31 | −5.15 / −2.85 / 35% |
| M15 | 25..35 | 17 | −0.13 / +0.23 | −3.20 / −0.90 / 44% |
| M15 | −35..−25 | 37 | +0.65 / +0.28 | +0.42 / −1.88 / 38% |
| M15 | ≤ −35 | 24 | +0.47 / +0.10 | −0.98 / −3.28 / 29% |

Spearman rank correlation of the composite score with the forward move (+ would mean high score →
price up), with bootstrap 95% CI:

| tf | 1 h | 4 h | 24 h |
|---|---|---|---|
| M5 (n ≈ 1,990 / 1,734) | −0.05 [−0.09, −0.01] | −0.03 [−0.07, +0.02] | **−0.11 [−0.15, −0.06]** |
| M15 (n ≈ 665 / 570) | 0.00 [−0.08, +0.08] | −0.02 [−0.09, +0.06] | **−0.20 [−0.27, −0.12]** |
| H1 (n ≈ 165 / 150) | −0.09 [−0.25, +0.06] | −0.08 [−0.24, +0.07] | **−0.33 [−0.47, −0.17]** |

Grades: M15 grade-A rows (n = 12) had a 24 h excess of −4.8 ATR and an adjusted hit of 17%; M5
grade-B rows (n = 15) −1.9 ATR excess at 4 h, hit 20%. Gates: the only gate that removed A/B/C
directional rows this fortnight was the spread gate on M5 (n = 10; 24 h excess +0.03 vs −5.33 for
the shipped M5 setups): tiny and descriptive. The M15 engine change at Sep 9 21:45 leaves only 10
directional rows before it; nothing can be said about it.

## 4. The trade book

View 1, every unique setup (advisory R at $0.65; PENDING excluded from R):

| cut | n | resolved | wins | sum R | mean R | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| **all** | 49 | 37 | 17 (46%) | **−7.15** | −0.19 | 0.60 |
| M5 | 24 | 14 | 6 | −1.08 | −0.08 | 0.83 |
| M15 | 24 | 22 | 11 | −5.06 | −0.23 | 0.51 |
| H1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | −1.01 | | |
| BUY / SELL | 30 / 19 | 18 / 19 | 8 / 9 | −3.49 / −3.67 | −0.19 / −0.19 | 0.59 / 0.61 |
| grade A / B / C | 27 / 19 / 2 | 20 / 15 / 2 | 9 / 7 / 1 | −4.87 / −2.75 / +0.47 | | 0.48 / 0.63 / 1.46 |
| XAU_ATR / GENERIC / XAU_CP | 10 / 35 / 4 | 9 / 25 / 3 | 5 / 10 / 2 | −1.29 / −7.03 / +1.17 | | 0.69 / 0.45 / 2.10 |
| regime transitioning / trending_down / trending_up | 12 / 15 / 16 | 11 / 15 / 6 | 4 / 8 / 2 | −6.02 / −0.70 / −2.06 | | 0.16 / 0.89 / 0.08 |
| volatility extreme / normal | 31 / 9 | 22 / 8 | 10 / 4 | −4.32 / +0.94 | | 0.59 / 1.30 |
| watch level none / watch / hot | 10 / 24 / 12 | 10 / 20 / 5 | 6 / 7 / 4 | +0.57 / −7.73 / +2.11 | | 1.18 / 0.38 / 10.5 |
| hour 08 UTC | 7 | 7 | 0 | −7.14 | −1.02 | 0.00 |
| hour 12 UTC | 13 | 6 | 5 | +4.15 | +0.69 | 19.7 |
| day Sep 14 / Sep 15 / Sep 16 | 4 / 6 / 11 | 4 / 6 / 11 | 4 / 1 / 4 | +3.40 / −5.01 / −4.53 | | |

Exits: 17 SL, 18 TRAIL, 2 GAP_LOCKED. Setup-level forward moves agree with the advisory model:
M15 setups −0.60 ATR excess at 4 h (hit 35%), −3.33 at 24 h; M5 −1.49 at 4 h, −5.33 at 24 h.

View 2, cooldown-equivalent (skip 5 primary bars after an accepted setup): 28 setups, 25 resolved,
14 wins (56%), **−1.62R**, PF 0.84; M5 +0.11R (12), M15 −0.71R (12), H1 −1.01R; SELL +1.11R over 10
(70% win), BUY −2.73R over 15.

View 3, reconstructed Telegram alerts: 36 alerts in 9 trading days (about 4 a day), 29 resolved, 14
wins (48%), **−4.88R**, PF 0.64; M15 −3.97R (16), M5 +0.11R (12), H1 −1.01R. The re-alert rules let
through 2 of the 6 Sep 15 shorts and all 3 FOMC-evening shorts.

Backtest over the same window (HEAD): **29 trades, +1.09R**. Matched-resolved 23: live +0.47R vs
backtest +0.62R (the difference is the Sep 8 07:30 M15 short, GAP_LOCKED live at +1.13 vs +1.28
on the raw path). Matched but live still pending 3: backtest +1.13R. Backtest-only 3: −0.66R.
Live-only cooldown re-entries 20 (8 pending): the 12 resolved ones sum to **−5.54R**.

Bootstrap against the two-year books (per-trade R resampled; P = share of draws at or below the
observed sum):

| view | tf | n | observed | book median | 5–95% | P(≤ obs) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| view 1 (raw advisory) | M15 | 22 | −5.06R | +3.2 | −4.8..+12.0 | 4.6% |
| view 1 | M5 | 14 | −1.08R | +2.4 | −4.2..+10.3 | 20% |
| view 2 (cooldown) | M15 | 12 | −0.71R | +1.8 | −4.1..+8.3 | 25% |
| view 2 | M5 | 12 | +0.11R | +2.0 | −4.0..+9.3 | 31% |
| backtest over window | M15 | 13 | −0.32R | +1.9 | −4.2..+8.7 | 28% |
| backtest over window | M5 | 15 | +2.43R | +2.6 | −4.3..+10.7 | 49% |

Calendar check: 36% of the M15 book's 13-day windows and 35% of the M5 book's are negative; among
M5 windows where price fell 3% or more the median is +0.2R with 46% negative, median BUY −1.2R and
median SELL +1.5R. This fortnight behaved the way the book says a falling fortnight behaves. The
view-1 M15 figure looks extreme only because its 22 "trades" are 12 independent entries plus 10
correlated re-entries.

Special buckets:

- **M15 grade-A/A+ SELL** (the parked cycle-2 candidate): live 11 setups, 5 wins, −2.77R (PF 0.55),
  but 6 of the 11 are Sep 15 cluster re-entries; the cooldown-equivalent five are +1.13, +0.36, +1.05,
  +0.09, −1.02 = +1.61R. Two-year book: 176 trades, −3.4R, mean −0.02R. The live sample does not
  move the candidate either way; it stays parked.
- **FOMC evening** (Sep 16 18:45, 19:00, 19:15 UTC): three M15 shorts, all −1R, 45–75 minutes after
  the 18:00 decision, all `watch_level = watch` (reading `extreme`), none `hot` because the hot rule
  needs a high-impact USD release within ±30 min. The macro persona AGREED on all three at 82%
  confidence ("the Fed raised rates, which pushes gold down"); gold rose 95$ the next day. The
  backtester took the 18:45 trade too (−1.02R), so it is validated behaviour; 19:00 and 19:15 are
  cooldown re-entries.
- **Sep 15 07:45–08:45 M15 STRONG_SELL cluster**: six setups on consecutive bars, one +0.09R and
  five −1.02R (−5.01R). The backtester took the first (+0.09R) and skipped the rest.
- **XAU_CP**: 4 setups (2 inverse head-and-shoulders, 2 double bottoms), 3 resolved, +1.17R; both
  in-window ones matched the backtester exactly.
- **Exhaustion count at entry**: 0 → +2.57R (4 resolved), 1 → −4.85R (10), 3 → +0.26R (8),
  4 → −3.24R (11). Descriptive only; the 2026-09-06 campaign already closed exhaustion sizing.

## 5. The AI panel

Unique setups with a panel 34 (27 resolved); macro persona is the verdict.

| verdict | n | resolved | wins | sum R | PF | 4 h excess / adj hit | 24 h excess / adj hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGREE | 12 | 12 | 6 (50%) | −2.16 | 0.59 | −2.51 / 22% (n 9) | −7.13 / 22% (n 9) |
| NEUTRAL | 9 | 8 | 5 (62%) | −0.67 | 0.79 | +1.48 / 75% (n 8) | −2.31 / 29% (n 7) |
| OPPOSE | 13 | 7 | 2 (29%) | −2.52 | 0.39 | −0.72 / 20% (n 5) | +0.69 / 80% (n 5) |
| skip OPPOSE (counterfactual) | 21 | 20 | 11 (55%) | −2.82 | 0.66 | | |
| AGREE only | 12 | 12 | 6 (50%) | −2.16 | 0.59 | | |

By realised R the OPPOSE verdict was mildly useful (it flagged the two worst-PF groups: opposed
BUYs −1.61R over 4, opposed SELLs −0.91R over 3). By forward move the same opposed trades went the
trade's way at 24 h (4 of 5 after drift). Six pending OPPOSE verdicts sit on the Sep 17 long
cluster, which the backtester currently marks +0.90, +0.38, −0.15R. Nothing here is decidable at
n = 7; it is consistent with the 2026-09-03 finding that only the macro persona carries information.

Personas (stance share / mean R when they held it): macro support 35% (−0.18R) / neutral 26%
(−0.08R) / oppose 38% (−0.36R); technical support **79%** / oppose 12%; risk oppose **79%** /
support 3%; contrarian oppose **65%**. Three of four personas vote almost the same way on every
setup, so they add little beyond their prior. "Take only setups the risk persona did not oppose"
leaves 7 setups (+0.03R): a curiosity, not a rule. Number of opposing personas (1 / 2 / 3) gives
PF 0.57 / 0.57 / 0.57. Verdict confidence bands < 40 / 40–59 / ≥ 60 were 62% / 50% / 60% correct
(n 8 / 4 / 15): no calibration.

## 6. Findings, tagged

**Observations (small sample, descriptive):**
- The system is doing what was validated: bar-for-bar parity with the backtester, and the
  backtester itself made +1.1R on this window, a 30th-percentile fortnight for the book.
- The live loss is concentrated in cluster re-entries (−5.5R), the Sep 15 08:xx short run and the
  FOMC-evening shorts, and in the `transitioning` regime (PF 0.16 over 11) and `watch` level
  (−7.7R over 20). Two weeks; no action.
- The composite score was inversely related to the 24 h move on all three timeframes with CIs
  excluding zero, and uninformative at 1–4 h. Two weeks of a single bear regime cannot overturn the
  two-year book, but it is the strongest live pattern seen twice now (2026-09-08 and here).
- Panel: OPPOSE mildly helpful by R, anti-informative by 24 h move; three personas near-constant.

**Delivery-side fix candidates (no book impact):**
1. Redeploy the dashboard daemon to `2836024` (or later) and install the systemd unit; it has run
   `2ac7301` since Sep 10 and was dead for 3.5 days before that. After redeploy, re-check the 8 score
   divergences between surfaces on H1/H4 bars.
2. Decide whether the live pipeline should mirror the backtester's 5-bar entry cooldown for
   alerts and for the advisory scorecard. Today every consecutive-bar setup is logged as its own
   trade and about one in three is re-alerted, so the live book systematically over-counts
   correlated entries relative to every validated number. A cooldown view could be added to
   `analyze_signal_log.py` (the existing `one_position_view` is close), and an alert cooldown is
   the owner's call.
3. Backtester CSV `strategy` column: the gold ATR setups appear as `GENERIC` while live stamps
   `XAU_ATR`; entries, stops and R are identical, so this is a labelling gap only. Cause: the
   backtester derives its tag from the text of the first bullish/bearish reason (`"XAU STRATEGY"`
   in the first bullish reason → `XAU`) instead of reading `trade_setup.strategy`, so SELL ATR
   setups and any ATR setup whose first reason is another indicator fall through to `GENERIC`.
   The same tag feeds the research-only `--strategies` filter. Book-neutral; a one-line fix plus
   a test when convenient.
4. Bot uptime: the 19.5 h Sep 9 outage cost two validated trades; the daily 21:xx stale rows and
   the Labor Day stale run are known and harmless.

**Needs a rule-1 backtest (nothing proposed to ship):**
- Score-vs-24 h inversion: test in-book with the replay recorder (`--record --record-bars` writes
  forward 1 h / 4 h / 24 h moves for every analysed bar over the two-year window). If the rank
  correlation is also negative across the book, the gate chain's thresholds, not the weights, are
  the place to look; if it is positive, this fortnight was regime-specific.
- M15 grade-A SELL block stays parked (cycle-2 candidate; live adds n = 5 cooldown-equivalent
  trades at +1.6R and n = 11 raw at −2.8R).

## Caveats

Section 7 adds four scratchpad research runs of gate 6h on the two-year cache (no new cache
windows; `Backend: NumPy CPU fallback`, `GPU cache fallbacks: 0` on all four).

Nine trading days, one regime (bear trend with an FOMC hike), 37 resolved advisory outcomes of
which 12 are correlated re-entries, the advisory model is cleaned-mid evidence and not execution,
the 24 h horizon is drift-dominated (drift-adjusted numbers are shown but a single trend cannot be
fully removed), the M15 engine changed mid-sample (Sep 9 21:45), the dashboard and the bot ran
different code from Sep 14, and the alerted view is a reconstruction. The `--stored-candles`
replay closes only 26 of the 37 DB-resolved setups because the stored candle streams have the
Labor Day and Sep 9 gaps; where both resolve they agree to the cent.

## Appendix: the 49 unique setups

R at $0.65 (advisory model); ex24 = 24 h move in the trade direction minus the same-timeframe drift,
ATR units; BT = backtester over the same window (M = matched, C = live-only inside the cooldown,
– = before the parity window).

| bar (UTC) | tf | signal | g | score | dir | strategy | regime | R | exit | ex24 | panel | BT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-04 05:35 | M5 | BUY | B | +8.7 | BUY | XAU_CP | ranging | −1.06 | SL | −7.4 | NEUTRAL | – |
| 09-04 07:45 | M15 | STRONG_BUY | A | +37.3 | BUY | XAU_ATR | transitioning | −1.04 | SL | −5.1 | NEUTRAL | – |
| 09-04 15:10 | M5 | BUY | B | +8.8 | BUY | XAU_CP | ranging | unres. | | +3.1 | OPPOSE | – |
| 09-07 08:00 | M15 | BUY | C | +26.7 | BUY | GENERIC | ranging | −1.02 | SL | | | M (bt grade B, pre-RSI engine) |
| 09-07 12:15 | M5 | BUY | B | +22.2 | BUY | XAU_CP | trending | +2.04 | TRAIL | | NEUTRAL | M |
| 09-08 07:30 | M15 | SELL | A | −34.2 | SELL | GENERIC | trending_down | +1.13 | GAP_LOCKED | +3.0 | OPPOSE | M (bt +1.28) |
| 09-08 07:45 | M15 | SELL | B | −31.7 | SELL | GENERIC | trending_down | +0.84 | GAP_LOCKED | +2.7 | | C |
| 09-08 08:05 | M5 | SELL | B | −35.4 | SELL | GENERIC | trending_down | −1.03 | SL | +3.7 | OPPOSE | M |
| 09-10 05:10 | M5 | BUY | B | +20.5 | BUY | XAU_CP | ranging | +0.18 | TRAIL | −18.3 | AGREE | M |
| 09-10 05:40 | M5 | BUY | A | +33.4 | BUY | GENERIC | trending_up | −1.03 | SL | −15.7 | AGREE | M |
| 09-10 05:55 | M5 | BUY | B | +29.8 | BUY | GENERIC | trending_up | −1.02 | SL | −15.2 | | C |
| 09-10 09:15 | M15 | SELL | B | −29.1 | SELL | GENERIC | transitioning | +0.07 | TRAIL | +4.2 | NEUTRAL | M |
| 09-10 12:05 | M5 | SELL | B | −30.3 | SELL | GENERIC | trending_down | +1.31 | TRAIL | +3.6 | AGREE | M |
| 09-10 12:15 | M15 | SELL | A | −34.3 | SELL | GENERIC | trending_down | +0.36 | TRAIL | +0.3 | AGREE | M |
| 09-10 12:30 | M15 | SELL | B | −32.6 | SELL | GENERIC | trending_down | −0.22 | TRAIL | −3.4 | AGREE | C |
| 09-14 09:15 | M15 | STRONG_SELL | A | −42.7 | SELL | XAU_ATR | trending_down | +1.05 | TRAIL | −0.1 | AGREE | M |
| 09-14 09:30 | M15 | STRONG_SELL | A | −42.6 | SELL | XAU_ATR | trending_down | +0.70 | TRAIL | −1.0 | | C |
| 09-14 12:45 | M5 | SELL | B | −36.5 | SELL | GENERIC | trending_down | +0.16 | TRAIL | −6.1 | AGREE | M |
| 09-14 15:25 | M5 | BUY | C | +25.1 | BUY | GENERIC | ranging | +1.49 | TRAIL | +4.3 | | M |
| 09-15 07:45 | M15 | STRONG_SELL | A | −37.5 | SELL | GENERIC | trending_down | +0.09 | TRAIL | −8.7 | AGREE | M |
| 09-15 08:00 | M15 | STRONG_SELL | A | −42.0 | SELL | GENERIC | trending_down | −1.02 | SL | −9.5 | OPPOSE | C |
| 09-15 08:10 | M5 | SELL | B | −30.3 | SELL | GENERIC | trending_down | −1.02 | SL | −15.6 | AGREE | M |
| 09-15 08:15 | M15 | STRONG_SELL | A | −36.7 | SELL | GENERIC | trending_down | −1.02 | SL | −9.6 | | C |
| 09-15 08:30 | M15 | STRONG_SELL | A | −41.6 | SELL | GENERIC | trending_down | −1.02 | SL | −9.7 | | C |
| 09-15 08:45 | M15 | STRONG_SELL | A | −45.1 | SELL | GENERIC | trending_down | −1.02 | SL | −10.5 | | C |
| 09-16 03:00 | M5 | STRONG_BUY | A | +36.0 | BUY | GENERIC | trending_up | +0.14 | TRAIL | −4.2 | NEUTRAL | M |
| 09-16 03:00 | M15 | BUY | A | +34.0 | BUY | XAU_ATR | transitioning | +0.14 | TRAIL | −3.5 | NEUTRAL | M |
| 09-16 03:10 | M5 | STRONG_BUY | A | +38.6 | BUY | GENERIC | trending_up | −0.16 | TRAIL | −4.6 | | C |
| 09-16 03:15 | M15 | BUY | A | +30.9 | BUY | XAU_ATR | transitioning | +0.43 | TRAIL | −2.8 | | C |
| 09-16 06:00 | H1 | BUY | B | +28.0 | BUY | GENERIC | transitioning | −1.01 | SL | −0.7 | NEUTRAL | M |
| 09-16 07:00 | M15 | BUY | B | +29.1 | BUY | GENERIC | trending_up | +0.05 | TRAIL | +0.5 | NEUTRAL | M |
| 09-16 07:35 | M5 | STRONG_BUY | A | +37.3 | BUY | GENERIC | trending_up | −0.04 | TRAIL | +3.2 | OPPOSE | M |
| 09-16 15:05 | M5 | BUY | B | +29.7 | BUY | GENERIC | transitioning | −1.04 | SL | | OPPOSE | M |
| 09-16 18:45 | M15 | SELL | A | −34.6 | SELL | XAU_ATR | transitioning | −1.02 | SL | | AGREE | M |
| 09-16 19:00 | M15 | STRONG_SELL | A | −35.4 | SELL | XAU_ATR | transitioning | −1.02 | SL | | AGREE | C |
| 09-16 19:15 | M15 | SELL | B | −26.6 | SELL | GENERIC | transitioning | −1.01 | SL | | AGREE | C |
| 09-17 07:15 | M15 | BUY | A | +31.5 | BUY | XAU_ATR | transitioning | −1.03 | SL | | OPPOSE | M |
| 09-17 07:25 | M5 | STRONG_BUY | A | +35.9 | BUY | GENERIC | trending_up | pending | | | OPPOSE | M (bt +0.90) |
| 09-17 07:30 | M5 | STRONG_BUY | A | +36.2 | BUY | GENERIC | trending_up | pending | | | | C |
| 09-17 07:30 | M15 | BUY | B | +28.7 | BUY | GENERIC | transitioning | pending | | | | C |
| 09-17 07:35 | M5 | STRONG_BUY | A | +35.5 | BUY | GENERIC | trending_up | pending | | | | C |
| 09-17 12:00 | M5 | BUY | B | +34.3 | BUY | GENERIC | trending_up | pending | | | NEUTRAL | M (bt +0.38) |
| 09-17 12:00 | M15 | STRONG_BUY | A | +35.9 | BUY | XAU_ATR | transitioning | +0.50 | TRAIL | | OPPOSE | M |
| 09-17 12:05 | M5 | STRONG_BUY | A | +37.2 | BUY | GENERIC | trending_up | pending | | | OPPOSE | C |
| 09-17 12:10 | M5 | BUY | B | +34.4 | BUY | GENERIC | trending_up | pending | | | OPPOSE | C |
| 09-17 12:15 | M5 | STRONG_BUY | A | +38.9 | BUY | GENERIC | trending_up | pending | | | OPPOSE | C |
| 09-17 12:15 | M15 | STRONG_BUY | A+ | +43.7 | BUY | XAU_ATR | trending_up | pending | | | OPPOSE | C |
| 09-17 12:20 | M5 | STRONG_BUY | A | +39.1 | BUY | GENERIC | trending_up | pending | | | | C |
| 09-17 12:25 | M5 | STRONG_BUY | A | +40.0 | BUY | GENERIC | trending_up | pending | | | | M (bt −0.15) |

Backtest-only trades: M15 BUY B 09-08 04:00 (−1.03R; live scored the bar +24.7 NEUTRAL D on the
pre-RSI-change engine), M15 BUY B 09-09 05:45 (+0.23R) and M5 BUY A 09-09 06:00 (+0.14R), both
during the bot outage.

## 7. The owner's four suspicions, checked

The owner's objective for this review (2026-09-17): is anything functioning poorly in one of four
specific ways. Each is checked on the 49 unique live setups (37 resolved) and compared with the
two-year books where the books carry the same measure. "Reached TP1" means the trade's best
excursion (MFE) reached the planned first target; the advisory model itself exits on the trail, so
TP1 is advisory.

### 7.1 Does the AI panel OPPOSE trades that go on to hit their targets? — yes, as often as not

| macro verdict | setups | reached TP1 | reached TP2 | resolved wins | mean MFE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGREE | 12 | 5 (42%) | 4 | 6 / 12 | 0.87R |
| NEUTRAL | 9 | 5 (56%) | 3 | 5 / 8 | 0.96R |
| OPPOSE | 13 | **7 (54%)** | 5 | 2 / 7 | 0.64R |

Opposed trades reached their first target more often than agreed ones. Concrete cases: OPPOSE at
60% on the Sep 8 07:30 M15 short ("most news points to gold rising") that made +1.13R and hit TP2;
OPPOSE at 62–65% on five of the Sep 17 longs that ran +0.7R to +1.3R (four still open); AGREE at 82%
on all three FOMC-evening shorts ("the Fed raised rates, which pushes gold down"), all −1R, gold
+95$ the next day. The macro persona's notes quote the news narrative of the moment, and the
2026-09-04 study showed that narrative trails price by about a day. The realised-R view (opposed
trades 2/7 wins) looks better for the panel only because the opposed winners are mostly the
pending Sep 17 longs. Structure: technical supports 79% of setups, risk opposes 79%, contrarian
65% — three near-constant voters. **Verdict: OPPOSE has no value as a veto and must never gate;
it is presented as "news context" at best.** (observation; the panel is already advisory-only)

### 7.2 Wrong direction, or entering late after the move is exhausted? — late by design; this fortnight the continuation failed

- 11 of 37 resolved setups never reached +0.3R (wrong from the first bar); 17 of 37 were stopped.
  Book norm: 20–22% never reach 0.3R; live 30%.
- **30 of 37 entries came after price had already moved ≥ 2 ATR in the trade direction over the
  previous 4 h**: PF 0.47, −7.8R. The 7 entries after a smaller prior move: PF 1.21, +0.7R.
- The engine's own exhaustion tags do **not** separate the losers: trades carrying
  `rsi_extended` / `bb_overextended` at entry (21) had PF 0.68 and −2.8R; the 16 without had PF
  0.53 and −4.4R. The 2026-08-04 stretch verdict (stretched entries are the best book trades) and
  the 2026-09-06 sizing campaign already closed exhaustion-based sizing; the live fortnight adds
  nothing that would reopen it.
- Three recurring shapes: (a) M15 shorts fire after a 4–6 ATR down leg, are right for four hours
  (69% hit) and wrong by the next day (the low bounces); (b) longs in the downtrend fired at bounce
  tops — Sep 10 05:40 and 05:55 at the 24 h high, followed by a 20 ATR fall; (c) the FOMC shorts
  entered 45–75 min after the decision, 0.2–0.9 ATR above the day's low, after a 4–5 ATR drop: they
  sold the bottom. Every one of these is the momentum design working as validated; the two-year
  book earns its edge on exactly these entries and this fortnight they failed.
  (observation)

### 7.3 Do signals fire on big volatile candles? — yes, and that is where the whole loss sits

| entry context (last 3 primary bars) | resolved | wins | reached TP1 | sum R | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| a bar ≥ 2 ATR among the last 3 | 15 | 4 (27%) | 5 | **−7.18** | 0.25 |
| the signal bar itself ≥ 2 ATR | 7 | 1 (14%) | 2 | −3.44 | 0.23 |
| signal-bar body ≥ 1 ATR in the trade direction | 12 | 5 (42%) | 7 | −3.63 | 0.34 |
| no bar ≥ 2 ATR among the last 3 | 22 | 13 (59%) | 13 | **+0.02** | 1.00 |

The 15 setups fired within three bars of a ≥ 2 ATR candle carry the entire fortnight's loss; the
other 22 broke even at the book's win rate. Largest cases: Sep 10 12:30 M15 short on a 4.2 ATR bar
(−0.22R), the FOMC 18:45 / 19:00 shorts on 2.5–2.7 ATR bars (−1R each), Sep 14 09:15 short on a
2.7 ATR bar (+1.05R). A gate for exactly this exists (`big_candle_atr_multiple`, gate 6h) and ships
off because the 2026-07-30 test found the removed trades net-positive at every multiple on the long
books. The live fortnight contradicts that book verdict, so the gate was re-run on the two-year
M15 and M5 books (below).

Re-test of gate 6h on the two-year books (`--big-candle 2.0 --big-candle-hours {1,24}`, same
harness as the reference books, control = the MD5-verified W2 books; "removed" = control trades
absent from the candidate, approximate because the cooldown displaces entries):

| book | trades | R | PF | win | max DD | H1 / H2 | ΔR vs control | removed trades |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M15 control | 931 | +146.1 | 1.43 | 60.5% | 16.1 | +67.7 / +78.4 | | |
| M15 gate 2 ATR, 1 h lookback | 643 | +117.6 | 1.51 | 61.9% | 14.4 | +58.4 / +59.2 | **−28.5** | 347 trades, **+32.5R**, 58% win |
| M15 gate 2 ATR, 24 h lookback | 3 | +0.5 | | | | | −145.6 | 929 trades, +147.0R |
| M5 control | 781 | +146.1 | 1.52 | 52.9% | 10.1 | +41.0 / +105.1 | | |
| M5 gate 2 ATR, 1 h lookback | 434 | +86.5 | 1.56 | 53.5% | 10.4 | +31.2 / +55.3 | **−59.6** | 368 trades, **+60.2R**, 52% win |
| M5 gate 2 ATR, 24 h lookback | 0 | | | | | | −146.1 | all |

Same verdict as 2026-07-30: over two years the trades entered within an hour of a ≥ 2 ATR candle
are a net-positive bucket on both timeframes (+32R and +60R at the book's own win rates), and the
gate buys a few points of profit factor by giving up a fifth to two fifths of the R. The live
fortnight's −7.2R in that bucket is a bad draw from a positive population, not a malfunction.
**Gate stays off; not a rule-1 candidate.** (needs-a-rule-1-backtest: done here, fails)

### 7.4 Are take-profit targets too far, with the market reversing first? — targets are normal in R; the stops are what is big

Planned geometry by generator (live): M15 GENERIC TP1 = 1.0R with stops of 3.6–4.4 ATR ($21–62,
one of $121 on the FOMC 19:15 short); M15 XAU_ATR TP1 = 0.69R with a 2 ATR stop ($16 target, $23
stop); M5 GENERIC TP1 = 0.5R with stops of 4.7–7.3 ATR ($13–32 target, $26–65 stop); XAU_CP TP1 =
0.88R. As a share of price the live GENERIC stops (medians 0.6–1.0%) sit above the book medians
(0.58–0.73%) but inside the book's 90th percentiles (0.97–1.66%); only the $121 FOMC stop (2.85%)
is outside. Capping the stop in ATR was tested and refuted in the 2026-09 campaign.

| measure | live (37 resolved) | M15 book | M5 book |
|---|---|---|---|
| reached TP1 | 49% | 52% | 56% |
| never reached 0.3R | 30% | 20% | 22% |
| gave back (MFE ≥ 0.5R, closed ≤ 0) | 16% | 11% | 18% |
| MFE 0.6–1.0R and closed ≤ 0 | 4 of 8 | | |

So the targets were reached about as often as in the books; what was worse was the share of trades
that never moved in favour at all. Trades that did reach 0.6–1.0R often ended flat or negative
because the trail arms at 0.6R (M5) / 0.7R (M15) and gives back to the arm level. A fixed exit at TP1
would have made this fortnight −3.55R instead of −7.15R, which is the same direction as the
2026-08-05 fixed-target study (better in 2024+ trend windows, worse in 2021 and 2023, drawdown
doubled), so nothing changes there. (observation; `--fixed-rr-tp` remains research-only)