News-ML-Decoder/eval/results/golden_20260927_1859_transformer.csv

headline,category,exp,rationale,model_label,model_cls,model_score,model_conf,model_margin,model_cls_band,model_ms,kw_xau,kw_cls,ds_s,ds_xau,ds_cls,ds_cached
Powell says restrictive policy needed for longer as inflation proves sticky,hawkish_fed,-1,"higher-for-longer rates lift real yields, gold-bearish",bullish,1,0.1077,0.2529,0.2706,0,10.71,0.0,0,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
Fed minutes show officials leaning toward two more rate hikes this year,hawkish_fed,-1,more hikes = stronger dollar/yields,bearish,-1,-0.9336,0.9384,0.9896,-1,9.24,-1.0,-1,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
Hot CPI print fuels bets on additional Fed tightening,hawkish_fed,-1,tightening expectations weigh on gold,bearish,-1,-0.9436,0.9528,0.9808,-1,8.58,-1.0,-1,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
Fed's Waller: higher-for-longer rates warranted by resilient economy,hawkish_fed,-1,hawkish guidance,bearish,-1,-0.953,0.9605,0.9846,-1,9.87,1.0,1,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
"FOMC raises rates 50bp, flags further increases ahead",hawkish_fed,-1,outsized hike plus hawkish guidance,bearish,-1,-0.9464,0.9563,0.9796,-1,8.62,0.0,0,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
Treasury yields spike as Fed pushes back on rate cut hopes,hawkish_fed,-1,"cut hopes dashed, yields up",bearish,-1,-0.8945,0.9342,0.9184,-1,8.83,1.0,1,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
"Core inflation accelerates, cementing case for hawkish Fed stance",hawkish_fed,-1,hawkish repricing,bearish,-1,-0.9473,0.9597,0.9744,-1,9.52,0.0,0,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
Fed dot plot shifts higher; markets price out easing for the year,hawkish_fed,-1,easing priced out,bearish,-1,-0.9311,0.9459,0.9692,-1,9.23,1.0,1,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
Fed cuts rates 25bp and signals more easing to come,dovish_fed,1,easing cycle is gold-bullish,bullish,1,0.4825,0.7109,0.5136,1,8.85,1.0,1,-0.4,0.7,1,True
Powell hints at rate cuts as inflation cools toward target,dovish_fed,1,cut guidance,bearish,-1,-0.1477,0.3756,0.2448,0,9.17,1.0,1,-0.4,0.7,1,True
FOMC minutes reveal growing support for policy easing,dovish_fed,1,dovish minutes,bearish,-1,-0.89,0.906,0.9652,-1,8.6,1.0,1,-0.4,0.7,1,True
Fed's Williams says rate cuts appropriate later this year,dovish_fed,1,cut guidance,bearish,-1,-0.5075,0.6881,0.5842,-1,9.08,1.0,1,-0.4,0.7,1,True
Soft inflation data boosts odds of a dovish Fed pivot,dovish_fed,1,pivot odds up,bullish,1,0.208,0.5444,0.236,1,9.16,1.0,1,-0.4,0.7,1,True
"Fed pauses hikes, markets price aggressive easing cycle",dovish_fed,1,easing priced in,bearish,-1,-0.2859,0.6263,0.2956,-1,8.61,1.0,1,-0.4,0.7,1,True
Central banks turn dovish as global growth falters,dovish_fed,1,global easing backdrop,bullish,1,0.6048,0.669,0.8248,1,8.59,1.0,1,-0.4,0.7,1,True
Fed to restart bond purchases to support flagging economy,dovish_fed,1,QE is gold-bullish,bullish,1,0.2472,0.4558,0.3722,1,8.87,0.0,0,-0.4,0.7,1,True
Dollar index hits 12-month high on robust US economic data,strong_usd,-1,strong dollar pressures gold,bearish,-1,-0.7474,0.8468,0.7898,-1,9.67,1.0,1,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
"US GDP grows 4.1% annualized, blowing past expectations",strong_usd,-1,"strong economy, hawkish implication",neutral,0,0.0913,0.8623,0.7246,0,9.05,0.0,0,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
Blockbuster jobs report sends dollar surging across the board,strong_usd,-1,strong jobs lift dollar and yields,bullish,1,0.2809,0.3019,0.87,1,9.19,0.0,0,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
"US retail sales smash forecasts, underscoring consumer strength",strong_usd,-1,strong data,neutral,0,0.1461,0.8416,0.6832,0,8.69,0.0,0,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
Greenback rallies as US data outshines Europe and Asia,strong_usd,-1,dollar strength,neutral,0,0.1152,0.8594,0.7188,0,9.57,0.0,0,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
ISM services index jumps to two-year high on strong demand,strong_usd,-1,strong data,neutral,0,0.1326,0.8482,0.6964,0,9.49,1.0,1,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
Consumer confidence surges to post-pandemic high in the US,strong_usd,-1,strong data,bullish,1,0.2504,0.256,0.9572,1,9.39,1.0,1,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
Dollar tumbles to eight-month low after dismal manufacturing data,weak_usd,1,weak dollar lifts gold,bullish,1,0.1,0.4888,0.114,0,9.13,-1.0,-1,-0.4,0.7,1,True
US economy adds far fewer jobs than expected; dollar slides,weak_usd,1,"weak jobs, dovish implication",bullish,1,0.4406,0.4516,0.9522,1,9.51,-1.0,-1,-0.4,0.7,1,True
Greenback weakens as US retail sales unexpectedly contract,weak_usd,1,weak data,neutral,0,0.0253,0.9296,0.8592,0,9.49,-1.0,-1,-0.4,0.6,1,True
"US GDP growth revised down sharply, stoking slowdown fears",weak_usd,1,slowdown is dovish,bullish,1,0.4711,0.4962,0.9034,1,8.69,0.0,0,-0.5,0.5,1,True
Dollar slumps as trade deficit balloons to record,weak_usd,1,dollar weakness,bullish,1,0.5227,0.7181,0.5722,1,9.66,-1.0,-1,-0.4,0.5,1,True
Soft services PMI adds to evidence of cooling US economy,weak_usd,1,cooling economy,neutral,0,0.0403,0.9369,0.8738,0,8.9,0.0,0,-0.4,0.4,1,True
US consumer sentiment plunges to two-year low,weak_usd,1,weak data,bullish,1,0.2721,0.2993,0.8332,1,9.48,-1.0,-1,-0.5,0.5,1,True
Real yields climb to multi-year highs as TIPS sell off,real_yields,-1,rising real yields raise gold's opportunity cost,bearish,-1,-0.572,0.7626,0.6002,-1,9.2,0.0,0,0.6,-0.8,-1,True
10-year Treasury yield surges past 5% on supply glut,real_yields,-1,yield spike,bearish,-1,-0.9196,0.9501,0.9378,-1,9.55,1.0,1,0.6,-0.8,-1,True
Rising real interest rates dim appeal of non-yielding assets,real_yields,-1,explicit opportunity-cost story,bearish,-1,-0.4968,0.6803,0.5752,-1,8.77,0.0,0,0.5,-0.7,-1,True
Treasury yields sink as investors flock to bonds,real_yields,1,falling yields support gold,bullish,1,0.6366,0.6986,0.837,1,8.93,0.0,0,-0.5,0.6,1,True
Real yields turn negative as inflation outpaces rates,real_yields,1,negative real yields are gold's best backdrop,bullish,1,0.3207,0.5398,0.4224,1,9.33,0.0,0,-0.6,0.8,1,True
Bond rally drives 10-year yield to lowest level in a year,real_yields,1,falling yields,bearish,-1,-0.5384,0.7539,0.5554,-1,9.0,1.0,1,-0.5,0.6,1,True
"Geopolitical tensions escalate in Middle East, investors seek safety",safe_haven,1,safe-haven bid,bullish,1,0.4549,0.4637,0.963,1,9.25,0.0,0,-0.7,0.8,1,True
Stocks crater worldwide as banking crisis fears spread,safe_haven,1,crisis flight to safety,bullish,1,0.4187,0.4287,0.9544,1,8.45,0.0,0,-0.8,0.9,1,True
Escalating conflict drives flight to safe-haven assets,safe_haven,1,explicit haven flow,bullish,1,0.2142,0.441,0.3206,1,8.81,0.0,0,-0.7,0.8,1,True
Investors dump risk assets after surprise sovereign default,safe_haven,1,default shock,bullish,1,0.3017,0.3149,0.919,1,8.96,0.0,0,-0.8,0.9,1,True
Military escalation on NATO border rattles global markets,safe_haven,1,geopolitical stress,bullish,1,0.7,0.7426,0.8914,1,8.27,0.0,0,-0.7,0.8,1,True
Wall Street plunges 4% in worst session since pandemic,safe_haven,1,risk-off,bullish,1,0.6095,0.6934,0.7842,1,8.56,-1.0,-1,-0.8,0.9,1,True
Currency crisis in emerging markets sparks contagion fears,safe_haven,1,"contagion, haven bid",bullish,1,0.2205,0.2262,0.951,1,8.58,0.0,0,-0.7,0.8,1,True
"Nuclear rhetoric intensifies, sending investors to havens",safe_haven,1,extreme geopolitical stress,bullish,1,0.5411,0.6753,0.6684,1,8.48,0.0,0,-0.8,0.9,1,True
"Ceasefire agreement lifts global markets, haven demand fades",risk_on,-1,haven unwind,bullish,1,0.2671,0.2759,0.938,1,8.98,0.0,0,0.6,-0.7,-1,True
Stocks roar to record highs as trade deal signed,risk_on,-1,risk-on drains haven demand,bullish,1,0.292,0.3007,0.9442,1,8.85,1.0,1,0.7,-0.7,-1,True
Risk appetite returns as banking fears subside,risk_on,-1,risk-on,bullish,1,0.4151,0.4322,0.924,1,8.35,0.0,0,0.6,-0.6,-1,True
Global equities rally on strong earnings and easing tensions,risk_on,-1,risk-on,bullish,1,0.5096,0.523,0.95,1,8.32,1.0,1,0.7,-0.7,-1,True
Gold hits record high as central banks keep buying bullion,gold_direct,1,direct demand,bullish,1,0.8306,0.8525,0.95,1,8.4,1.0,1,0.8,0.9,1,True
Gold ETFs post biggest weekly inflows in three years,gold_direct,1,investment inflows,bullish,1,0.1983,0.208,0.9112,1,9.46,0.0,0,0.7,0.8,1,True
China's central bank extends gold buying spree to 18th month,gold_direct,1,official-sector demand,neutral,0,0.1824,0.8097,0.6194,1,8.66,0.0,0,0.6,0.7,1,True
Miners struggle to meet gold demand as supply deficit widens,gold_direct,1,supply deficit,bullish,1,0.4046,0.4306,0.8862,1,8.62,-1.0,-1,0.5,0.6,1,True
Gold slides 2% as investors book profits after record run,gold_direct,-1,profit-taking pressure,bearish,-1,-0.8064,0.8759,0.853,-1,8.85,-1.0,-1,-0.6,-0.8,-1,True
Gold tumbles below key support as ETF outflows accelerate,gold_direct,-1,outflows,bearish,-1,-0.6862,0.815,0.727,-1,8.49,-1.0,-1,-0.7,-0.9,-1,True
Bullion demand weakens as Indian jewellery buying stalls,gold_direct,-1,physical demand soft,neutral,0,0.1625,0.8019,0.6038,1,8.81,-1.0,-1,-0.4,-0.5,-1,True
Speculators slash bullish gold bets as dollar strengthens,gold_direct,-1,positioning unwind,bearish,-1,-0.8967,0.9392,0.9134,-1,8.95,1.0,1,-0.5,-0.6,-1,True
"Fed holds rates steady, signals no rate hike on the horizon",negation_traps,1,dovish hold; keyword layer sees the phrase rate hike and flips it gold-bearish,bearish,-1,-0.2518,0.5065,0.3308,-1,8.84,-1.0,-1,0.3,0.5,1,True
Powell says no rate cuts until inflation shows sustained cooling,negation_traps,-1,hawkish hold; keyword layer sees rate cut and calls it gold-bullish,bearish,-1,-0.1605,0.4276,0.231,-1,8.46,1.0,1,-0.2,-0.3,-1,True
Recession fears fade as US data streak beats estimates,negation_traps,-1,fading fear is risk-on; keywords see recession plus beats and cancel out,bullish,1,0.2104,0.2144,0.9636,1,9.72,0.0,0,0.4,-0.4,-1,True
"Inflation fails to accelerate, easing pressure on the Fed",negation_traps,1,disinflation opens door to cuts,bullish,1,0.4018,0.6285,0.4698,1,8.34,1.0,1,0.3,0.4,1,True
"Fed's Bowman: not yet confident inflation is beaten, cuts premature",negation_traps,-1,hawkish pushback phrased around negations,bullish,1,0.3185,0.3501,0.8346,1,9.38,0.0,0,-0.4,-0.5,-1,True
"Central bank stops short of hiking, but warns tightening may resume",negation_traps,-1,hawkish hold with tightening bias,bearish,-1,-0.255,0.3532,0.565,-1,9.12,-1.0,-1,-0.3,-0.4,-1,True
"No safe-haven bid for gold despite equity wobble, analysts say",negation_traps,-1,explicitly negated haven demand,bullish,1,0.5529,0.5748,0.9266,1,8.77,0.0,0,-0.3,-0.4,-1,True
"Jobs report not as weak as feared, dollar recovers",negation_traps,-1,less-bad data is dollar-positive,bullish,1,0.4404,0.4931,0.8068,1,8.41,0.0,0,0.3,-0.4,-1,True
US manufacturing output plunges as new orders dry up,inverted_metrics,1,weak economy is dovish/gold-bullish; keyword layer reads plunges as bearish,neutral,0,0.1649,0.8098,0.6196,1,9.12,-1.0,-1,-0.5,0.5,1,True
US factory activity slumps to three-year low,inverted_metrics,1,weak data; keyword reads slumps as bearish,neutral,0,0.1219,0.8488,0.6976,0,8.43,-1.0,-1,-0.5,0.5,1,True
Consumer spending falls for third straight month,inverted_metrics,1,weak data; keyword reads falls as bearish,neutral,0,0.0446,0.8583,0.7166,0,8.1,-1.0,-1,-0.5,0.5,1,True
Private payrolls growth slides to weakest pace since 2020,inverted_metrics,1,weak jobs; keyword reads slides as bearish,neutral,0,0.061,0.911,0.822,0,8.98,-1.0,-1,-0.5,0.5,1,True
Jobless claims hit two-year high as layoffs spread,inverted_metrics,1,higher claims = weaker economy = gold-bullish,neutral,0,0.1605,0.8272,0.6544,1,9.5,0.0,0,-0.5,0.5,1,True
"US unemployment rate hits 4.5%, highest since 2021",inverted_metrics,1,higher unemployment = dovish = gold-bullish,bullish,1,0.2677,0.4956,0.37,1,8.59,0.0,0,-0.6,0.6,1,True
Lakers clinch playoff berth with overtime win over Suns,distractors,0,irrelevant,neutral,0,0.0464,0.9454,0.8908,0,8.68,0.0,0,0.0,0.0,0,True
New Marvel film smashes box office records on opening weekend,distractors,0,irrelevant,neutral,0,0.0508,0.9449,0.8898,0,8.87,0.0,0,0.0,0.0,0,True
Apple unveils thinner MacBook with faster chip lineup,distractors,0,irrelevant,neutral,0,0.0402,0.957,0.914,0,8.14,0.0,0,0.0,0.0,0,True
Scientists discover new deep-sea species off Pacific coast,distractors,0,irrelevant,neutral,0,0.0483,0.9494,0.8988,0,9.87,0.0,0,0.0,0.0,0,True
Heavy rain forecast for the Midwest through the weekend,distractors,0,irrelevant,neutral,0,-0.0285,0.8605,0.721,0,8.43,0.0,0,0.0,0.0,0,True
Streaming service raises subscription prices in Europe,distractors,0,irrelevant,neutral,0,0.0237,0.972,0.944,0,8.04,0.0,0,0.0,0.0,0,True
"Electric vehicle startup recalls 12,000 cars over software glitch",distractors,0,irrelevant,neutral,0,0.0215,0.9771,0.9542,0,9.02,0.0,0,0.0,0.0,0,True
Local elections see record turnout in several US states,distractors,0,irrelevant,neutral,0,0.0548,0.9367,0.8734,0,8.39,0.0,0,0.0,0.0,0,True