News-ML-Decoder/eval/results/golden_20260927_1931_transformer.csv

headline,category,exp,rationale,model_label,model_cls,model_score,model_conf,model_margin,model_cls_band,model_ms,kw_xau,kw_cls,ds_s,ds_xau,ds_cls,ds_cached
Powell says restrictive policy needed for longer as inflation proves sticky,hawkish_fed,-1,"higher-for-longer rates lift real yields, gold-bearish",bullish,1,0.8767,0.924,0.9026,1,9.55,0.0,0,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
Fed minutes show officials leaning toward two more rate hikes this year,hawkish_fed,-1,more hikes = stronger dollar/yields,bearish,-1,-0.9836,0.9871,0.993,-1,8.29,-1.0,-1,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
Hot CPI print fuels bets on additional Fed tightening,hawkish_fed,-1,tightening expectations weigh on gold,bearish,-1,-0.9791,0.9839,0.9902,-1,7.74,-1.0,-1,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
Fed's Waller: higher-for-longer rates warranted by resilient economy,hawkish_fed,-1,hawkish guidance,bearish,-1,-0.985,0.9897,0.9906,-1,8.52,1.0,1,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
"FOMC raises rates 50bp, flags further increases ahead",hawkish_fed,-1,outsized hike plus hawkish guidance,bearish,-1,-0.967,0.9795,0.9748,-1,7.74,0.0,0,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
Treasury yields spike as Fed pushes back on rate cut hopes,hawkish_fed,-1,"cut hopes dashed, yields up",bearish,-1,-0.9748,0.9822,0.985,-1,8.01,1.0,1,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
"Core inflation accelerates, cementing case for hawkish Fed stance",hawkish_fed,-1,hawkish repricing,bearish,-1,-0.9851,0.9893,0.9916,-1,8.16,0.0,0,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
Fed dot plot shifts higher; markets price out easing for the year,hawkish_fed,-1,easing priced out,bearish,-1,-0.9368,0.9535,0.9656,-1,9.35,1.0,1,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
Fed cuts rates 25bp and signals more easing to come,dovish_fed,1,easing cycle is gold-bullish,bullish,1,0.9638,0.9796,0.9682,1,8.12,1.0,1,-0.4,0.7,1,True
Powell hints at rate cuts as inflation cools toward target,dovish_fed,1,cut guidance,bullish,1,0.9788,0.986,0.9854,1,8.1,1.0,1,-0.4,0.7,1,True
FOMC minutes reveal growing support for policy easing,dovish_fed,1,dovish minutes,bullish,1,0.555,0.7744,0.5584,1,7.86,1.0,1,-0.4,0.7,1,True
Fed's Williams says rate cuts appropriate later this year,dovish_fed,1,cut guidance,bullish,1,0.9498,0.9725,0.9544,1,8.14,1.0,1,-0.4,0.7,1,True
Soft inflation data boosts odds of a dovish Fed pivot,dovish_fed,1,pivot odds up,bullish,1,0.9627,0.9755,0.974,1,7.95,1.0,1,-0.4,0.7,1,True
"Fed pauses hikes, markets price aggressive easing cycle",dovish_fed,1,easing priced in,bullish,1,0.9728,0.9821,0.9812,1,7.82,1.0,1,-0.4,0.7,1,True
Central banks turn dovish as global growth falters,dovish_fed,1,global easing backdrop,bullish,1,0.9739,0.9817,0.9844,1,7.98,1.0,1,-0.4,0.7,1,True
Fed to restart bond purchases to support flagging economy,dovish_fed,1,QE is gold-bullish,bullish,1,0.705,0.7399,0.91,1,7.87,0.0,0,-0.4,0.7,1,True
Dollar index hits 12-month high on robust US economic data,strong_usd,-1,strong dollar pressures gold,bearish,-1,-0.976,0.9833,0.9854,-1,8.32,1.0,1,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
"US GDP grows 4.1% annualized, blowing past expectations",strong_usd,-1,"strong economy, hawkish implication",bearish,-1,-0.6976,0.8285,0.727,-1,8.31,0.0,0,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
Blockbuster jobs report sends dollar surging across the board,strong_usd,-1,strong jobs lift dollar and yields,bearish,-1,-0.8493,0.9073,0.88,-1,8.04,0.0,0,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
"US retail sales smash forecasts, underscoring consumer strength",strong_usd,-1,strong data,bullish,1,0.2108,0.4973,0.2688,1,7.84,0.0,0,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
Greenback rallies as US data outshines Europe and Asia,strong_usd,-1,dollar strength,neutral,0,0.2348,0.7488,0.4976,1,8.09,0.0,0,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
ISM services index jumps to two-year high on strong demand,strong_usd,-1,strong data,neutral,0,0.0232,0.5152,0.0304,0,8.27,1.0,1,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
Consumer confidence surges to post-pandemic high in the US,strong_usd,-1,strong data,bullish,1,0.195,0.565,0.2086,1,8.12,1.0,1,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
Dollar tumbles to eight-month low after dismal manufacturing data,weak_usd,1,weak dollar lifts gold,bullish,1,0.9798,0.9846,0.9902,1,8.05,-1.0,-1,-0.4,0.7,1,True
US economy adds far fewer jobs than expected; dollar slides,weak_usd,1,"weak jobs, dovish implication",bullish,1,0.9587,0.9628,0.9916,1,7.93,-1.0,-1,-0.4,0.7,1,True
Greenback weakens as US retail sales unexpectedly contract,weak_usd,1,weak data,neutral,0,0.0298,0.9632,0.9264,0,7.66,-1.0,-1,-0.4,0.6,1,True
"US GDP growth revised down sharply, stoking slowdown fears",weak_usd,1,slowdown is dovish,bullish,1,0.9637,0.9701,0.987,1,7.71,0.0,0,-0.5,0.5,1,True
Dollar slumps as trade deficit balloons to record,weak_usd,1,dollar weakness,bullish,1,0.9708,0.9805,0.9804,1,7.65,-1.0,-1,-0.4,0.5,1,True
Soft services PMI adds to evidence of cooling US economy,weak_usd,1,cooling economy,bullish,1,0.8583,0.8662,0.9818,1,7.67,0.0,0,-0.4,0.4,1,True
US consumer sentiment plunges to two-year low,weak_usd,1,weak data,bullish,1,0.9731,0.9781,0.9898,1,7.7,-1.0,-1,-0.5,0.5,1,True
Real yields climb to multi-year highs as TIPS sell off,real_yields,-1,rising real yields raise gold's opportunity cost,bearish,-1,-0.9755,0.985,0.981,-1,8.15,0.0,0,0.6,-0.8,-1,True
10-year Treasury yield surges past 5% on supply glut,real_yields,-1,yield spike,bearish,-1,-0.9664,0.9808,0.971,-1,8.62,1.0,1,0.6,-0.8,-1,True
Rising real interest rates dim appeal of non-yielding assets,real_yields,-1,explicit opportunity-cost story,bearish,-1,-0.0562,0.4986,0.0598,0,8.09,0.0,0,0.5,-0.7,-1,True
Treasury yields sink as investors flock to bonds,real_yields,1,falling yields support gold,bullish,1,0.9652,0.9713,0.9876,1,8.09,0.0,0,-0.5,0.6,1,True
Real yields turn negative as inflation outpaces rates,real_yields,1,negative real yields are gold's best backdrop,bullish,1,0.9456,0.9621,0.9662,1,7.83,0.0,0,-0.6,0.8,1,True
Bond rally drives 10-year yield to lowest level in a year,real_yields,1,falling yields,bullish,1,0.9165,0.9538,0.9246,1,8.45,1.0,1,-0.5,0.6,1,True
"Geopolitical tensions escalate in Middle East, investors seek safety",safe_haven,1,safe-haven bid,bullish,1,0.956,0.9636,0.9844,1,8.1,0.0,0,-0.7,0.8,1,True
Stocks crater worldwide as banking crisis fears spread,safe_haven,1,crisis flight to safety,bullish,1,0.9535,0.9643,0.978,1,7.64,0.0,0,-0.8,0.9,1,True
Escalating conflict drives flight to safe-haven assets,safe_haven,1,explicit haven flow,bullish,1,0.9024,0.9448,0.914,1,7.74,0.0,0,-0.7,0.8,1,True
Investors dump risk assets after surprise sovereign default,safe_haven,1,default shock,bullish,1,0.9126,0.9504,0.9234,1,7.58,0.0,0,-0.8,0.9,1,True
Military escalation on NATO border rattles global markets,safe_haven,1,geopolitical stress,bullish,1,0.9641,0.9737,0.9806,1,7.55,0.0,0,-0.7,0.8,1,True
Wall Street plunges 4% in worst session since pandemic,safe_haven,1,risk-off,bullish,1,0.9577,0.9617,0.9918,1,7.9,-1.0,-1,-0.8,0.9,1,True
Currency crisis in emerging markets sparks contagion fears,safe_haven,1,"contagion, haven bid",bullish,1,0.8554,0.8611,0.9868,1,7.6,0.0,0,-0.7,0.8,1,True
"Nuclear rhetoric intensifies, sending investors to havens",safe_haven,1,extreme geopolitical stress,bullish,1,0.9415,0.962,0.9584,1,7.69,0.0,0,-0.8,0.9,1,True
"Ceasefire agreement lifts global markets, haven demand fades",risk_on,-1,haven unwind,bullish,1,0.9011,0.9101,0.9802,1,7.75,0.0,0,0.6,-0.7,-1,True
Stocks roar to record highs as trade deal signed,risk_on,-1,risk-on drains haven demand,neutral,0,0.2946,0.6928,0.3856,1,7.75,1.0,1,0.7,-0.7,-1,True
Risk appetite returns as banking fears subside,risk_on,-1,risk-on,bearish,-1,-0.5438,0.7343,0.5882,-1,7.43,0.0,0,0.6,-0.6,-1,True
Global equities rally on strong earnings and easing tensions,risk_on,-1,risk-on,bullish,1,0.6469,0.6678,0.9394,1,7.64,1.0,1,0.7,-0.7,-1,True
Gold hits record high as central banks keep buying bullion,gold_direct,1,direct demand,bullish,1,0.977,0.9833,0.9874,1,8.37,1.0,1,0.8,0.9,1,True
Gold ETFs post biggest weekly inflows in three years,gold_direct,1,investment inflows,bullish,1,0.9607,0.9717,0.9774,1,7.71,0.0,0,0.7,0.8,1,True
China's central bank extends gold buying spree to 18th month,gold_direct,1,official-sector demand,bullish,1,0.9771,0.9825,0.9892,1,8.1,0.0,0,0.6,0.7,1,True
Miners struggle to meet gold demand as supply deficit widens,gold_direct,1,supply deficit,bullish,1,0.0709,0.5218,0.0728,0,7.69,-1.0,-1,0.5,0.6,1,True
Gold slides 2% as investors book profits after record run,gold_direct,-1,profit-taking pressure,bearish,-1,-0.9657,0.9783,0.9746,-1,7.85,-1.0,-1,-0.6,-0.8,-1,True
Gold tumbles below key support as ETF outflows accelerate,gold_direct,-1,outflows,bearish,-1,-0.9645,0.9772,0.9744,-1,7.7,-1.0,-1,-0.7,-0.9,-1,True
Bullion demand weakens as Indian jewellery buying stalls,gold_direct,-1,physical demand soft,neutral,0,0.0274,0.9613,0.9226,0,7.54,-1.0,-1,-0.4,-0.5,-1,True
Speculators slash bullish gold bets as dollar strengthens,gold_direct,-1,positioning unwind,bearish,-1,-0.9725,0.9819,0.981,-1,7.66,1.0,1,-0.5,-0.6,-1,True
"Fed holds rates steady, signals no rate hike on the horizon",negation_traps,1,dovish hold; keyword layer sees the phrase rate hike and flips it gold-bearish,bullish,1,0.5523,0.5801,0.9084,1,7.99,-1.0,-1,0.3,0.5,1,True
Powell says no rate cuts until inflation shows sustained cooling,negation_traps,-1,hawkish hold; keyword layer sees rate cut and calls it gold-bullish,bearish,-1,-0.8024,0.8909,0.8192,-1,7.68,1.0,1,-0.2,-0.3,-1,True
Recession fears fade as US data streak beats estimates,negation_traps,-1,fading fear is risk-on; keywords see recession plus beats and cancel out,bullish,1,0.8585,0.8694,0.9752,1,8.02,0.0,0,0.4,-0.4,-1,True
"Inflation fails to accelerate, easing pressure on the Fed",negation_traps,1,disinflation opens door to cuts,bullish,1,0.9456,0.9597,0.971,1,7.81,1.0,1,0.3,0.4,1,True
"Fed's Bowman: not yet confident inflation is beaten, cuts premature",negation_traps,-1,hawkish pushback phrased around negations,bearish,-1,-0.7706,0.8477,0.8334,-1,8.18,0.0,0,-0.4,-0.5,-1,True
"Central bank stops short of hiking, but warns tightening may resume",negation_traps,-1,hawkish hold with tightening bias,bearish,-1,-0.774,0.8734,0.7956,-1,8.01,-1.0,-1,-0.3,-0.4,-1,True
"No safe-haven bid for gold despite equity wobble, analysts say",negation_traps,-1,explicitly negated haven demand,bearish,-1,-0.6631,0.815,0.6858,-1,8.51,0.0,0,-0.3,-0.4,-1,True
"Jobs report not as weak as feared, dollar recovers",negation_traps,-1,less-bad data is dollar-positive,bearish,-1,-0.6432,0.7941,0.6806,-1,7.87,0.0,0,0.3,-0.4,-1,True
US manufacturing output plunges as new orders dry up,inverted_metrics,1,weak economy is dovish/gold-bullish; keyword layer reads plunges as bearish,bullish,1,0.6101,0.6214,0.964,1,7.67,-1.0,-1,-0.5,0.5,1,True
US factory activity slumps to three-year low,inverted_metrics,1,weak data; keyword reads slumps as bearish,bullish,1,0.8698,0.8781,0.9814,1,7.66,-1.0,-1,-0.5,0.5,1,True
Consumer spending falls for third straight month,inverted_metrics,1,weak data; keyword reads falls as bearish,bullish,1,0.8561,0.8633,0.9832,1,7.43,-1.0,-1,-0.5,0.5,1,True
Private payrolls growth slides to weakest pace since 2020,inverted_metrics,1,weak jobs; keyword reads slides as bearish,bullish,1,0.9019,0.909,0.9844,1,7.67,-1.0,-1,-0.5,0.5,1,True
Jobless claims hit two-year high as layoffs spread,inverted_metrics,1,higher claims = weaker economy = gold-bullish,neutral,0,0.0945,0.8411,0.6822,0,7.86,0.0,0,-0.5,0.5,1,True
"US unemployment rate hits 4.5%, highest since 2021",inverted_metrics,1,higher unemployment = dovish = gold-bullish,bearish,-1,-0.472,0.7289,0.4788,-1,8.0,0.0,0,-0.6,0.6,1,True
Lakers clinch playoff berth with overtime win over Suns,distractors,0,irrelevant,neutral,0,0.0285,0.9703,0.9406,0,7.64,0.0,0,0.0,0.0,0,True
New Marvel film smashes box office records on opening weekend,distractors,0,irrelevant,neutral,0,0.0395,0.9566,0.9132,0,7.71,0.0,0,0.0,0.0,0,True
Apple unveils thinner MacBook with faster chip lineup,distractors,0,irrelevant,neutral,0,0.0073,0.9912,0.9824,0,7.56,0.0,0,0.0,0.0,0,True
Scientists discover new deep-sea species off Pacific coast,distractors,0,irrelevant,neutral,0,0.0389,0.9596,0.9192,0,7.69,0.0,0,0.0,0.0,0,True
Heavy rain forecast for the Midwest through the weekend,distractors,0,irrelevant,neutral,0,0.2673,0.4345,0.131,1,7.58,0.0,0,0.0,0.0,0,True
Streaming service raises subscription prices in Europe,distractors,0,irrelevant,neutral,0,0.0015,0.9974,0.9948,0,7.42,0.0,0,0.0,0.0,0,True
"Electric vehicle startup recalls 12,000 cars over software glitch",distractors,0,irrelevant,neutral,0,0.0039,0.9956,0.9912,0,7.96,0.0,0,0.0,0.0,0,True
Local elections see record turnout in several US states,distractors,0,irrelevant,neutral,0,0.0745,0.9026,0.8052,0,8.17,0.0,0,0.0,0.0,0,True