News-ML-Decoder/eval/data/llm_news_golden.csv

headline,category,expected_xau_sign,rationale
"Powell says restrictive policy needed for longer as inflation proves sticky",hawkish_fed,-1,"higher-for-longer rates lift real yields, gold-bearish"
"Fed minutes show officials leaning toward two more rate hikes this year",hawkish_fed,-1,"more hikes = stronger dollar/yields"
"Hot CPI print fuels bets on additional Fed tightening",hawkish_fed,-1,"tightening expectations weigh on gold"
"Fed's Waller: higher-for-longer rates warranted by resilient economy",hawkish_fed,-1,"hawkish guidance"
"FOMC raises rates 50bp, flags further increases ahead",hawkish_fed,-1,"outsized hike plus hawkish guidance"
"Treasury yields spike as Fed pushes back on rate cut hopes",hawkish_fed,-1,"cut hopes dashed, yields up"
"Core inflation accelerates, cementing case for hawkish Fed stance",hawkish_fed,-1,"hawkish repricing"
"Fed dot plot shifts higher; markets price out easing for the year",hawkish_fed,-1,"easing priced out"
"Fed cuts rates 25bp and signals more easing to come",dovish_fed,1,"easing cycle is gold-bullish"
"Powell hints at rate cuts as inflation cools toward target",dovish_fed,1,"cut guidance"
"FOMC minutes reveal growing support for policy easing",dovish_fed,1,"dovish minutes"
"Fed's Williams says rate cuts appropriate later this year",dovish_fed,1,"cut guidance"
"Soft inflation data boosts odds of a dovish Fed pivot",dovish_fed,1,"pivot odds up"
"Fed pauses hikes, markets price aggressive easing cycle",dovish_fed,1,"easing priced in"
"Central banks turn dovish as global growth falters",dovish_fed,1,"global easing backdrop"
"Fed to restart bond purchases to support flagging economy",dovish_fed,1,"QE is gold-bullish"
"Dollar index hits 12-month high on robust US economic data",strong_usd,-1,"strong dollar pressures gold"
"US GDP grows 4.1% annualized, blowing past expectations",strong_usd,-1,"strong economy, hawkish implication"
"Blockbuster jobs report sends dollar surging across the board",strong_usd,-1,"strong jobs lift dollar and yields"
"US retail sales smash forecasts, underscoring consumer strength",strong_usd,-1,"strong data"
"Greenback rallies as US data outshines Europe and Asia",strong_usd,-1,"dollar strength"
"ISM services index jumps to two-year high on strong demand",strong_usd,-1,"strong data"
"Consumer confidence surges to post-pandemic high in the US",strong_usd,-1,"strong data"
"Dollar tumbles to eight-month low after dismal manufacturing data",weak_usd,1,"weak dollar lifts gold"
"US economy adds far fewer jobs than expected; dollar slides",weak_usd,1,"weak jobs, dovish implication"
"Greenback weakens as US retail sales unexpectedly contract",weak_usd,1,"weak data"
"US GDP growth revised down sharply, stoking slowdown fears",weak_usd,1,"slowdown is dovish"
"Dollar slumps as trade deficit balloons to record",weak_usd,1,"dollar weakness"
"Soft services PMI adds to evidence of cooling US economy",weak_usd,1,"cooling economy"
"US consumer sentiment plunges to two-year low",weak_usd,1,"weak data"
"Real yields climb to multi-year highs as TIPS sell off",real_yields,-1,"rising real yields raise gold's opportunity cost"
"10-year Treasury yield surges past 5% on supply glut",real_yields,-1,"yield spike"
"Rising real interest rates dim appeal of non-yielding assets",real_yields,-1,"explicit opportunity-cost story"
"Treasury yields sink as investors flock to bonds",real_yields,1,"falling yields support gold"
"Real yields turn negative as inflation outpaces rates",real_yields,1,"negative real yields are gold's best backdrop"
"Bond rally drives 10-year yield to lowest level in a year",real_yields,1,"falling yields"
"Geopolitical tensions escalate in Middle East, investors seek safety",safe_haven,1,"safe-haven bid"
"Stocks crater worldwide as banking crisis fears spread",safe_haven,1,"crisis flight to safety"
"Escalating conflict drives flight to safe-haven assets",safe_haven,1,"explicit haven flow"
"Investors dump risk assets after surprise sovereign default",safe_haven,1,"default shock"
"Military escalation on NATO border rattles global markets",safe_haven,1,"geopolitical stress"
"Wall Street plunges 4% in worst session since pandemic",safe_haven,1,"risk-off"
"Currency crisis in emerging markets sparks contagion fears",safe_haven,1,"contagion, haven bid"
"Nuclear rhetoric intensifies, sending investors to havens",safe_haven,1,"extreme geopolitical stress"
"Ceasefire agreement lifts global markets, haven demand fades",risk_on,-1,"haven unwind"
"Stocks roar to record highs as trade deal signed",risk_on,-1,"risk-on drains haven demand"
"Risk appetite returns as banking fears subside",risk_on,-1,"risk-on"
"Global equities rally on strong earnings and easing tensions",risk_on,-1,"risk-on"
"Gold hits record high as central banks keep buying bullion",gold_direct,1,"direct demand"
"Gold ETFs post biggest weekly inflows in three years",gold_direct,1,"investment inflows"
"China's central bank extends gold buying spree to 18th month",gold_direct,1,"official-sector demand"
"Miners struggle to meet gold demand as supply deficit widens",gold_direct,1,"supply deficit"
"Gold slides 2% as investors book profits after record run",gold_direct,-1,"profit-taking pressure"
"Gold tumbles below key support as ETF outflows accelerate",gold_direct,-1,"outflows"
"Bullion demand weakens as Indian jewellery buying stalls",gold_direct,-1,"physical demand soft"
"Speculators slash bullish gold bets as dollar strengthens",gold_direct,-1,"positioning unwind"
"Fed holds rates steady, signals no rate hike on the horizon",negation_traps,1,"dovish hold; keyword layer sees the phrase rate hike and flips it gold-bearish"
"Powell says no rate cuts until inflation shows sustained cooling",negation_traps,-1,"hawkish hold; keyword layer sees rate cut and calls it gold-bullish"
"Recession fears fade as US data streak beats estimates",negation_traps,-1,"fading fear is risk-on; keywords see recession plus beats and cancel out"
"Inflation fails to accelerate, easing pressure on the Fed",negation_traps,1,"disinflation opens door to cuts"
"Fed's Bowman: not yet confident inflation is beaten, cuts premature",negation_traps,-1,"hawkish pushback phrased around negations"
"Central bank stops short of hiking, but warns tightening may resume",negation_traps,-1,"hawkish hold with tightening bias"
"No safe-haven bid for gold despite equity wobble, analysts say",negation_traps,-1,"explicitly negated haven demand"
"Jobs report not as weak as feared, dollar recovers",negation_traps,-1,"less-bad data is dollar-positive"
"US manufacturing output plunges as new orders dry up",inverted_metrics,1,"weak economy is dovish/gold-bullish; keyword layer reads plunges as bearish"
"US factory activity slumps to three-year low",inverted_metrics,1,"weak data; keyword reads slumps as bearish"
"Consumer spending falls for third straight month",inverted_metrics,1,"weak data; keyword reads falls as bearish"
"Private payrolls growth slides to weakest pace since 2020",inverted_metrics,1,"weak jobs; keyword reads slides as bearish"
"Jobless claims hit two-year high as layoffs spread",inverted_metrics,1,"higher claims = weaker economy = gold-bullish"
"US unemployment rate hits 4.5%, highest since 2021",inverted_metrics,1,"higher unemployment = dovish = gold-bullish"
"Lakers clinch playoff berth with overtime win over Suns",distractors,0,"irrelevant"
"New Marvel film smashes box office records on opening weekend",distractors,0,"irrelevant"
"Apple unveils thinner MacBook with faster chip lineup",distractors,0,"irrelevant"
"Scientists discover new deep-sea species off Pacific coast",distractors,0,"irrelevant"
"Heavy rain forecast for the Midwest through the weekend",distractors,0,"irrelevant"
"Streaming service raises subscription prices in Europe",distractors,0,"irrelevant"
"Electric vehicle startup recalls 12,000 cars over software glitch",distractors,0,"irrelevant"
"Local elections see record turnout in several US states",distractors,0,"irrelevant"