News-ML-Decoder/eval/results/golden_20260927_2315_transformer.csv

headline,category,exp,rationale,model_label,model_cls,model_score,model_conf,model_margin,model_cls_band,model_ms,kw_xau,kw_cls,ds_s,ds_xau,ds_cls,ds_cached
Powell says restrictive policy needed for longer as inflation proves sticky,hawkish_fed,-1,"higher-for-longer rates lift real yields, gold-bearish",bullish,1,0.8341,0.9144,0.8386,1,10.06,0.0,0,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
Fed minutes show officials leaning toward two more rate hikes this year,hawkish_fed,-1,more hikes = stronger dollar/yields,bearish,-1,-0.9942,0.9958,0.9968,-1,8.86,-1.0,-1,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
Hot CPI print fuels bets on additional Fed tightening,hawkish_fed,-1,tightening expectations weigh on gold,bearish,-1,-0.9925,0.9943,0.9964,-1,8.63,-1.0,-1,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
Fed's Waller: higher-for-longer rates warranted by resilient economy,hawkish_fed,-1,hawkish guidance,bearish,-1,-0.993,0.9957,0.9946,-1,9.65,1.0,1,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
"FOMC raises rates 50bp, flags further increases ahead",hawkish_fed,-1,outsized hike plus hawkish guidance,bearish,-1,-0.9928,0.9951,0.9954,-1,8.64,0.0,0,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
Treasury yields spike as Fed pushes back on rate cut hopes,hawkish_fed,-1,"cut hopes dashed, yields up",bearish,-1,-0.9904,0.9943,0.992,-1,8.83,1.0,1,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
"Core inflation accelerates, cementing case for hawkish Fed stance",hawkish_fed,-1,hawkish repricing,bearish,-1,-0.9951,0.9965,0.9972,-1,8.4,0.0,0,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
Fed dot plot shifts higher; markets price out easing for the year,hawkish_fed,-1,easing priced out,bearish,-1,-0.3315,0.636,0.3526,-1,8.68,1.0,1,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
Fed cuts rates 25bp and signals more easing to come,dovish_fed,1,easing cycle is gold-bullish,bullish,1,0.9949,0.997,0.9958,1,8.5,1.0,1,-0.4,0.7,1,True
Powell hints at rate cuts as inflation cools toward target,dovish_fed,1,cut guidance,bullish,1,0.9918,0.9951,0.9934,1,8.51,1.0,1,-0.4,0.7,1,True
FOMC minutes reveal growing support for policy easing,dovish_fed,1,dovish minutes,bullish,1,0.9902,0.994,0.9924,1,8.17,1.0,1,-0.4,0.7,1,True
Fed's Williams says rate cuts appropriate later this year,dovish_fed,1,cut guidance,bullish,1,0.9953,0.9972,0.9964,1,8.53,1.0,1,-0.4,0.7,1,True
Soft inflation data boosts odds of a dovish Fed pivot,dovish_fed,1,pivot odds up,bullish,1,0.9909,0.9948,0.9922,1,8.33,1.0,1,-0.4,0.7,1,True
"Fed pauses hikes, markets price aggressive easing cycle",dovish_fed,1,easing priced in,bullish,1,0.9914,0.9944,0.9938,1,8.3,1.0,1,-0.4,0.7,1,True
Central banks turn dovish as global growth falters,dovish_fed,1,global easing backdrop,bullish,1,0.9947,0.9962,0.9968,1,8.27,1.0,1,-0.4,0.7,1,True
Fed to restart bond purchases to support flagging economy,dovish_fed,1,QE is gold-bullish,bullish,1,0.6809,0.7856,0.7648,1,8.28,0.0,0,-0.4,0.7,1,True
Dollar index hits 12-month high on robust US economic data,strong_usd,-1,strong dollar pressures gold,bearish,-1,-0.9946,0.9959,0.9974,-1,8.69,1.0,1,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
"US GDP grows 4.1% annualized, blowing past expectations",strong_usd,-1,"strong economy, hawkish implication",bearish,-1,-0.9737,0.9815,0.9842,-1,8.62,0.0,0,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
Blockbuster jobs report sends dollar surging across the board,strong_usd,-1,strong jobs lift dollar and yields,bearish,-1,-0.9617,0.9799,0.9636,-1,8.33,0.0,0,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
"US retail sales smash forecasts, underscoring consumer strength",strong_usd,-1,strong data,bearish,-1,-0.9779,0.9819,0.992,-1,8.32,0.0,0,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
Greenback rallies as US data outshines Europe and Asia,strong_usd,-1,dollar strength,bearish,-1,-0.2403,0.2465,0.9512,-1,8.48,0.0,0,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
ISM services index jumps to two-year high on strong demand,strong_usd,-1,strong data,bearish,-1,-0.9485,0.963,0.9702,-1,8.65,1.0,1,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
Consumer confidence surges to post-pandemic high in the US,strong_usd,-1,strong data,bearish,-1,-0.2134,0.2273,0.8848,-1,8.71,1.0,1,0.4,-0.7,-1,True
Dollar tumbles to eight-month low after dismal manufacturing data,weak_usd,1,weak dollar lifts gold,bullish,1,0.9963,0.9978,0.9972,1,8.61,-1.0,-1,-0.4,0.7,1,True
US economy adds far fewer jobs than expected; dollar slides,weak_usd,1,"weak jobs, dovish implication",bullish,1,0.9944,0.9953,0.9982,1,8.55,-1.0,-1,-0.4,0.7,1,True
Greenback weakens as US retail sales unexpectedly contract,weak_usd,1,weak data,neutral,0,0.1416,0.8433,0.6866,0,8.28,-1.0,-1,-0.4,0.6,1,True
"US GDP growth revised down sharply, stoking slowdown fears",weak_usd,1,slowdown is dovish,bullish,1,0.9943,0.9952,0.9984,1,8.35,0.0,0,-0.5,0.5,1,True
Dollar slumps as trade deficit balloons to record,weak_usd,1,dollar weakness,bullish,1,0.9934,0.9952,0.9964,1,8.34,-1.0,-1,-0.4,0.5,1,True
Soft services PMI adds to evidence of cooling US economy,weak_usd,1,cooling economy,bullish,1,0.9868,0.9877,0.9982,1,8.38,0.0,0,-0.4,0.4,1,True
US consumer sentiment plunges to two-year low,weak_usd,1,weak data,bullish,1,0.9949,0.9958,0.9982,1,8.33,-1.0,-1,-0.5,0.5,1,True
Real yields climb to multi-year highs as TIPS sell off,real_yields,-1,rising real yields raise gold's opportunity cost,bearish,-1,-0.9938,0.996,0.9956,-1,8.93,0.0,0,0.6,-0.8,-1,True
10-year Treasury yield surges past 5% on supply glut,real_yields,-1,yield spike,bearish,-1,-0.9819,0.9904,0.983,-1,8.65,1.0,1,0.6,-0.8,-1,True
Rising real interest rates dim appeal of non-yielding assets,real_yields,-1,explicit opportunity-cost story,bullish,1,0.9525,0.9565,0.9916,1,8.73,0.0,0,0.5,-0.7,-1,True
Treasury yields sink as investors flock to bonds,real_yields,1,falling yields support gold,bullish,1,0.9926,0.9939,0.9974,1,8.26,0.0,0,-0.5,0.6,1,True
Real yields turn negative as inflation outpaces rates,real_yields,1,negative real yields are gold's best backdrop,bullish,1,0.9907,0.9937,0.994,1,8.51,0.0,0,-0.6,0.8,1,True
Bond rally drives 10-year yield to lowest level in a year,real_yields,1,falling yields,bullish,1,0.7843,0.8919,0.7846,1,8.65,1.0,1,-0.5,0.6,1,True
"Geopolitical tensions escalate in Middle East, investors seek safety",safe_haven,1,safe-haven bid,bullish,1,0.9938,0.9951,0.9974,1,8.55,0.0,0,-0.7,0.8,1,True
Stocks crater worldwide as banking crisis fears spread,safe_haven,1,crisis flight to safety,bullish,1,0.99,0.9921,0.9958,1,8.23,0.0,0,-0.8,0.9,1,True
Escalating conflict drives flight to safe-haven assets,safe_haven,1,explicit haven flow,bullish,1,0.9916,0.9939,0.9956,1,8.37,0.0,0,-0.7,0.8,1,True
Investors dump risk assets after surprise sovereign default,safe_haven,1,default shock,bullish,1,0.9902,0.9939,0.9926,1,8.14,0.0,0,-0.8,0.9,1,True
Military escalation on NATO border rattles global markets,safe_haven,1,geopolitical stress,bullish,1,0.9936,0.9952,0.9968,1,8.13,0.0,0,-0.7,0.8,1,True
Wall Street plunges 4% in worst session since pandemic,safe_haven,1,risk-off,bullish,1,0.9949,0.9957,0.9984,1,8.61,-1.0,-1,-0.8,0.9,1,True
Currency crisis in emerging markets sparks contagion fears,safe_haven,1,"contagion, haven bid",bullish,1,0.989,0.9898,0.9982,1,8.57,0.0,0,-0.7,0.8,1,True
"Nuclear rhetoric intensifies, sending investors to havens",safe_haven,1,extreme geopolitical stress,bullish,1,0.9953,0.9964,0.9978,1,8.51,0.0,0,-0.8,0.9,1,True
"Ceasefire agreement lifts global markets, haven demand fades",risk_on,-1,haven unwind,bearish,-1,-0.5595,0.7749,0.565,-1,8.63,0.0,0,0.6,-0.7,-1,True
Stocks roar to record highs as trade deal signed,risk_on,-1,risk-on drains haven demand,bearish,-1,-0.4613,0.569,0.6818,-1,8.35,1.0,1,0.7,-0.7,-1,True
Risk appetite returns as banking fears subside,risk_on,-1,risk-on,bearish,-1,-0.8996,0.9292,0.9382,-1,8.07,0.0,0,0.6,-0.6,-1,True
Global equities rally on strong earnings and easing tensions,risk_on,-1,risk-on,bearish,-1,-0.5252,0.5823,0.8214,-1,8.27,1.0,1,0.7,-0.7,-1,True
Gold hits record high as central banks keep buying bullion,gold_direct,1,direct demand,bullish,1,0.9942,0.9955,0.9974,1,8.3,1.0,1,0.8,0.9,1,True
Gold ETFs post biggest weekly inflows in three years,gold_direct,1,investment inflows,bullish,1,0.9885,0.9916,0.9938,1,8.26,0.0,0,0.7,0.8,1,True
China's central bank extends gold buying spree to 18th month,gold_direct,1,official-sector demand,bullish,1,0.9929,0.9944,0.997,1,8.6,0.0,0,0.6,0.7,1,True
Miners struggle to meet gold demand as supply deficit widens,gold_direct,1,supply deficit,bearish,-1,-0.3184,0.5759,0.382,-1,8.32,-1.0,-1,0.5,0.6,1,True
Gold slides 2% as investors book profits after record run,gold_direct,-1,profit-taking pressure,bearish,-1,-0.9848,0.987,0.9954,-1,8.41,-1.0,-1,-0.6,-0.8,-1,True
Gold tumbles below key support as ETF outflows accelerate,gold_direct,-1,outflows,bearish,-1,-0.9863,0.9881,0.9964,-1,8.34,-1.0,-1,-0.7,-0.9,-1,True
Bullion demand weakens as Indian jewellery buying stalls,gold_direct,-1,physical demand soft,neutral,0,0.0022,0.9968,0.9936,0,8.15,-1.0,-1,-0.4,-0.5,-1,True
Speculators slash bullish gold bets as dollar strengthens,gold_direct,-1,positioning unwind,bearish,-1,-0.9853,0.9874,0.9958,-1,8.33,1.0,1,-0.5,-0.6,-1,True
"Fed holds rates steady, signals no rate hike on the horizon",negation_traps,1,dovish hold; keyword layer sees the phrase rate hike and flips it gold-bearish,bullish,1,0.9578,0.9617,0.992,1,8.65,-1.0,-1,0.3,0.5,1,True
Powell says no rate cuts until inflation shows sustained cooling,negation_traps,-1,hawkish hold; keyword layer sees rate cut and calls it gold-bullish,bearish,-1,-0.6918,0.8448,0.6934,-1,8.48,1.0,1,-0.2,-0.3,-1,True
Recession fears fade as US data streak beats estimates,negation_traps,-1,fading fear is risk-on; keywords see recession plus beats and cancel out,bearish,-1,-0.5198,0.5667,0.8472,-1,8.25,0.0,0,0.4,-0.4,-1,True
"Inflation fails to accelerate, easing pressure on the Fed",negation_traps,1,disinflation opens door to cuts,bullish,1,0.0893,0.5422,0.0898,0,8.31,1.0,1,0.3,0.4,1,True
"Fed's Bowman: not yet confident inflation is beaten, cuts premature",negation_traps,-1,hawkish pushback phrased around negations,bearish,-1,-0.8268,0.9102,0.8322,-1,8.71,0.0,0,-0.4,-0.5,-1,True
"Central bank stops short of hiking, but warns tightening may resume",negation_traps,-1,hawkish hold with tightening bias,bearish,-1,-0.1545,0.52,0.1744,-1,8.59,-1.0,-1,-0.3,-0.4,-1,True
"No safe-haven bid for gold despite equity wobble, analysts say",negation_traps,-1,explicitly negated haven demand,bullish,1,0.1515,0.5654,0.1548,1,8.59,0.0,0,-0.3,-0.4,-1,True
"Jobs report not as weak as feared, dollar recovers",negation_traps,-1,less-bad data is dollar-positive,bearish,-1,-0.927,0.9551,0.9428,-1,8.62,0.0,0,0.3,-0.4,-1,True
US manufacturing output plunges as new orders dry up,inverted_metrics,1,weak economy is dovish/gold-bullish; keyword layer reads plunges as bearish,bullish,1,0.9637,0.9644,0.9984,1,8.33,-1.0,-1,-0.5,0.5,1,True
US factory activity slumps to three-year low,inverted_metrics,1,weak data; keyword reads slumps as bearish,bullish,1,0.9324,0.9336,0.9974,1,8.34,-1.0,-1,-0.5,0.5,1,True
Consumer spending falls for third straight month,inverted_metrics,1,weak data; keyword reads falls as bearish,bullish,1,0.8809,0.8825,0.9962,1,8.01,-1.0,-1,-0.5,0.5,1,True
Private payrolls growth slides to weakest pace since 2020,inverted_metrics,1,weak jobs; keyword reads slides as bearish,bullish,1,0.994,0.9948,0.9984,1,8.31,-1.0,-1,-0.5,0.5,1,True
Jobless claims hit two-year high as layoffs spread,inverted_metrics,1,higher claims = weaker economy = gold-bullish,bullish,1,0.8774,0.9059,0.939,1,8.48,0.0,0,-0.5,0.5,1,True
"US unemployment rate hits 4.5%, highest since 2021",inverted_metrics,1,higher unemployment = dovish = gold-bullish,bullish,1,0.9596,0.9791,0.9608,1,8.54,0.0,0,-0.6,0.6,1,True
Lakers clinch playoff berth with overtime win over Suns,distractors,0,irrelevant,neutral,0,-0.0017,0.9965,0.993,0,8.59,0.0,0,0.0,0.0,0,True
New Marvel film smashes box office records on opening weekend,distractors,0,irrelevant,neutral,0,-0.0005,0.9974,0.9948,0,8.28,0.0,0,0.0,0.0,0,True
Apple unveils thinner MacBook with faster chip lineup,distractors,0,irrelevant,neutral,0,-0.001,0.9977,0.9954,0,8.16,0.0,0,0.0,0.0,0,True
Scientists discover new deep-sea species off Pacific coast,distractors,0,irrelevant,neutral,0,0.0013,0.9984,0.9968,0,8.32,0.0,0,0.0,0.0,0,True
Heavy rain forecast for the Midwest through the weekend,distractors,0,irrelevant,neutral,0,0.0337,0.9589,0.9178,0,8.23,0.0,0,0.0,0.0,0,True
Streaming service raises subscription prices in Europe,distractors,0,irrelevant,neutral,0,-0.0002,0.9992,0.9984,0,7.95,0.0,0,0.0,0.0,0,True
"Electric vehicle startup recalls 12,000 cars over software glitch",distractors,0,irrelevant,neutral,0,0.0004,0.9994,0.9988,0,8.5,0.0,0,0.0,0.0,0,True
Local elections see record turnout in several US states,distractors,0,irrelevant,neutral,0,0.0,0.9984,0.9968,0,8.26,0.0,0,0.0,0.0,0,True