Harwinder Sekhon
1d72e4006a
TF-IDF baseline (news_sentiment.py, models/xauusd_sentiment.joblib) and the two-head DeBERTa-v3-small transformer (transformer/, news_transformer.py) with its Google News crawler and DeepSeek labeller (data_collect/), the golden-set and archive evals (eval/), and the 2026-09-22 and 2026-09-27 results and progress notes. Transformer weights (model.pt, model.onnx) and the crawl database are not tracked; rebuild with transformer/train.py and transformer/export_onnx.py. The DeepSeek label cache in data/ is tracked. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
12 KiB
12 KiB
| 1 | headline | category | exp | rationale | model_label | model_cls | model_score | model_conf | model_margin | model_cls_band | model_ms | kw_xau | kw_cls | ds_s | ds_xau | ds_cls | ds_cached |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Powell says restrictive policy needed for longer as inflation proves sticky | hawkish_fed | -1 | higher-for-longer rates lift real yields, gold-bearish | bullish | 1 | 0.1077 | 0.2529 | 0.2706 | 0 | 10.71 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.4 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 3 | Fed minutes show officials leaning toward two more rate hikes this year | hawkish_fed | -1 | more hikes = stronger dollar/yields | bearish | -1 | -0.9336 | 0.9384 | 0.9896 | -1 | 9.24 | -1.0 | -1 | 0.4 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 4 | Hot CPI print fuels bets on additional Fed tightening | hawkish_fed | -1 | tightening expectations weigh on gold | bearish | -1 | -0.9436 | 0.9528 | 0.9808 | -1 | 8.58 | -1.0 | -1 | 0.4 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 5 | Fed's Waller: higher-for-longer rates warranted by resilient economy | hawkish_fed | -1 | hawkish guidance | bearish | -1 | -0.953 | 0.9605 | 0.9846 | -1 | 9.87 | 1.0 | 1 | 0.4 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 6 | FOMC raises rates 50bp, flags further increases ahead | hawkish_fed | -1 | outsized hike plus hawkish guidance | bearish | -1 | -0.9464 | 0.9563 | 0.9796 | -1 | 8.62 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.4 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 7 | Treasury yields spike as Fed pushes back on rate cut hopes | hawkish_fed | -1 | cut hopes dashed, yields up | bearish | -1 | -0.8945 | 0.9342 | 0.9184 | -1 | 8.83 | 1.0 | 1 | 0.4 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 8 | Core inflation accelerates, cementing case for hawkish Fed stance | hawkish_fed | -1 | hawkish repricing | bearish | -1 | -0.9473 | 0.9597 | 0.9744 | -1 | 9.52 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.4 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 9 | Fed dot plot shifts higher; markets price out easing for the year | hawkish_fed | -1 | easing priced out | bearish | -1 | -0.9311 | 0.9459 | 0.9692 | -1 | 9.23 | 1.0 | 1 | 0.4 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 10 | Fed cuts rates 25bp and signals more easing to come | dovish_fed | 1 | easing cycle is gold-bullish | bullish | 1 | 0.4825 | 0.7109 | 0.5136 | 1 | 8.85 | 1.0 | 1 | -0.4 | 0.7 | 1 | True |
| 11 | Powell hints at rate cuts as inflation cools toward target | dovish_fed | 1 | cut guidance | bearish | -1 | -0.1477 | 0.3756 | 0.2448 | 0 | 9.17 | 1.0 | 1 | -0.4 | 0.7 | 1 | True |
| 12 | FOMC minutes reveal growing support for policy easing | dovish_fed | 1 | dovish minutes | bearish | -1 | -0.89 | 0.906 | 0.9652 | -1 | 8.6 | 1.0 | 1 | -0.4 | 0.7 | 1 | True |
| 13 | Fed's Williams says rate cuts appropriate later this year | dovish_fed | 1 | cut guidance | bearish | -1 | -0.5075 | 0.6881 | 0.5842 | -1 | 9.08 | 1.0 | 1 | -0.4 | 0.7 | 1 | True |
| 14 | Soft inflation data boosts odds of a dovish Fed pivot | dovish_fed | 1 | pivot odds up | bullish | 1 | 0.208 | 0.5444 | 0.236 | 1 | 9.16 | 1.0 | 1 | -0.4 | 0.7 | 1 | True |
| 15 | Fed pauses hikes, markets price aggressive easing cycle | dovish_fed | 1 | easing priced in | bearish | -1 | -0.2859 | 0.6263 | 0.2956 | -1 | 8.61 | 1.0 | 1 | -0.4 | 0.7 | 1 | True |
| 16 | Central banks turn dovish as global growth falters | dovish_fed | 1 | global easing backdrop | bullish | 1 | 0.6048 | 0.669 | 0.8248 | 1 | 8.59 | 1.0 | 1 | -0.4 | 0.7 | 1 | True |
| 17 | Fed to restart bond purchases to support flagging economy | dovish_fed | 1 | QE is gold-bullish | bullish | 1 | 0.2472 | 0.4558 | 0.3722 | 1 | 8.87 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.4 | 0.7 | 1 | True |
| 18 | Dollar index hits 12-month high on robust US economic data | strong_usd | -1 | strong dollar pressures gold | bearish | -1 | -0.7474 | 0.8468 | 0.7898 | -1 | 9.67 | 1.0 | 1 | 0.4 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 19 | US GDP grows 4.1% annualized, blowing past expectations | strong_usd | -1 | strong economy, hawkish implication | neutral | 0 | 0.0913 | 0.8623 | 0.7246 | 0 | 9.05 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.4 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 20 | Blockbuster jobs report sends dollar surging across the board | strong_usd | -1 | strong jobs lift dollar and yields | bullish | 1 | 0.2809 | 0.3019 | 0.87 | 1 | 9.19 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.4 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 21 | US retail sales smash forecasts, underscoring consumer strength | strong_usd | -1 | strong data | neutral | 0 | 0.1461 | 0.8416 | 0.6832 | 0 | 8.69 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.4 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 22 | Greenback rallies as US data outshines Europe and Asia | strong_usd | -1 | dollar strength | neutral | 0 | 0.1152 | 0.8594 | 0.7188 | 0 | 9.57 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.4 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 23 | ISM services index jumps to two-year high on strong demand | strong_usd | -1 | strong data | neutral | 0 | 0.1326 | 0.8482 | 0.6964 | 0 | 9.49 | 1.0 | 1 | 0.4 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 24 | Consumer confidence surges to post-pandemic high in the US | strong_usd | -1 | strong data | bullish | 1 | 0.2504 | 0.256 | 0.9572 | 1 | 9.39 | 1.0 | 1 | 0.4 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 25 | Dollar tumbles to eight-month low after dismal manufacturing data | weak_usd | 1 | weak dollar lifts gold | bullish | 1 | 0.1 | 0.4888 | 0.114 | 0 | 9.13 | -1.0 | -1 | -0.4 | 0.7 | 1 | True |
| 26 | US economy adds far fewer jobs than expected; dollar slides | weak_usd | 1 | weak jobs, dovish implication | bullish | 1 | 0.4406 | 0.4516 | 0.9522 | 1 | 9.51 | -1.0 | -1 | -0.4 | 0.7 | 1 | True |
| 27 | Greenback weakens as US retail sales unexpectedly contract | weak_usd | 1 | weak data | neutral | 0 | 0.0253 | 0.9296 | 0.8592 | 0 | 9.49 | -1.0 | -1 | -0.4 | 0.6 | 1 | True |
| 28 | US GDP growth revised down sharply, stoking slowdown fears | weak_usd | 1 | slowdown is dovish | bullish | 1 | 0.4711 | 0.4962 | 0.9034 | 1 | 8.69 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.5 | 0.5 | 1 | True |
| 29 | Dollar slumps as trade deficit balloons to record | weak_usd | 1 | dollar weakness | bullish | 1 | 0.5227 | 0.7181 | 0.5722 | 1 | 9.66 | -1.0 | -1 | -0.4 | 0.5 | 1 | True |
| 30 | Soft services PMI adds to evidence of cooling US economy | weak_usd | 1 | cooling economy | neutral | 0 | 0.0403 | 0.9369 | 0.8738 | 0 | 8.9 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.4 | 0.4 | 1 | True |
| 31 | US consumer sentiment plunges to two-year low | weak_usd | 1 | weak data | bullish | 1 | 0.2721 | 0.2993 | 0.8332 | 1 | 9.48 | -1.0 | -1 | -0.5 | 0.5 | 1 | True |
| 32 | Real yields climb to multi-year highs as TIPS sell off | real_yields | -1 | rising real yields raise gold's opportunity cost | bearish | -1 | -0.572 | 0.7626 | 0.6002 | -1 | 9.2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.6 | -0.8 | -1 | True |
| 33 | 10-year Treasury yield surges past 5% on supply glut | real_yields | -1 | yield spike | bearish | -1 | -0.9196 | 0.9501 | 0.9378 | -1 | 9.55 | 1.0 | 1 | 0.6 | -0.8 | -1 | True |
| 34 | Rising real interest rates dim appeal of non-yielding assets | real_yields | -1 | explicit opportunity-cost story | bearish | -1 | -0.4968 | 0.6803 | 0.5752 | -1 | 8.77 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.5 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 35 | Treasury yields sink as investors flock to bonds | real_yields | 1 | falling yields support gold | bullish | 1 | 0.6366 | 0.6986 | 0.837 | 1 | 8.93 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.5 | 0.6 | 1 | True |
| 36 | Real yields turn negative as inflation outpaces rates | real_yields | 1 | negative real yields are gold's best backdrop | bullish | 1 | 0.3207 | 0.5398 | 0.4224 | 1 | 9.33 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.6 | 0.8 | 1 | True |
| 37 | Bond rally drives 10-year yield to lowest level in a year | real_yields | 1 | falling yields | bearish | -1 | -0.5384 | 0.7539 | 0.5554 | -1 | 9.0 | 1.0 | 1 | -0.5 | 0.6 | 1 | True |
| 38 | Geopolitical tensions escalate in Middle East, investors seek safety | safe_haven | 1 | safe-haven bid | bullish | 1 | 0.4549 | 0.4637 | 0.963 | 1 | 9.25 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.7 | 0.8 | 1 | True |
| 39 | Stocks crater worldwide as banking crisis fears spread | safe_haven | 1 | crisis flight to safety | bullish | 1 | 0.4187 | 0.4287 | 0.9544 | 1 | 8.45 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.8 | 0.9 | 1 | True |
| 40 | Escalating conflict drives flight to safe-haven assets | safe_haven | 1 | explicit haven flow | bullish | 1 | 0.2142 | 0.441 | 0.3206 | 1 | 8.81 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.7 | 0.8 | 1 | True |
| 41 | Investors dump risk assets after surprise sovereign default | safe_haven | 1 | default shock | bullish | 1 | 0.3017 | 0.3149 | 0.919 | 1 | 8.96 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.8 | 0.9 | 1 | True |
| 42 | Military escalation on NATO border rattles global markets | safe_haven | 1 | geopolitical stress | bullish | 1 | 0.7 | 0.7426 | 0.8914 | 1 | 8.27 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.7 | 0.8 | 1 | True |
| 43 | Wall Street plunges 4% in worst session since pandemic | safe_haven | 1 | risk-off | bullish | 1 | 0.6095 | 0.6934 | 0.7842 | 1 | 8.56 | -1.0 | -1 | -0.8 | 0.9 | 1 | True |
| 44 | Currency crisis in emerging markets sparks contagion fears | safe_haven | 1 | contagion, haven bid | bullish | 1 | 0.2205 | 0.2262 | 0.951 | 1 | 8.58 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.7 | 0.8 | 1 | True |
| 45 | Nuclear rhetoric intensifies, sending investors to havens | safe_haven | 1 | extreme geopolitical stress | bullish | 1 | 0.5411 | 0.6753 | 0.6684 | 1 | 8.48 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.8 | 0.9 | 1 | True |
| 46 | Ceasefire agreement lifts global markets, haven demand fades | risk_on | -1 | haven unwind | bullish | 1 | 0.2671 | 0.2759 | 0.938 | 1 | 8.98 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.6 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 47 | Stocks roar to record highs as trade deal signed | risk_on | -1 | risk-on drains haven demand | bullish | 1 | 0.292 | 0.3007 | 0.9442 | 1 | 8.85 | 1.0 | 1 | 0.7 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 48 | Risk appetite returns as banking fears subside | risk_on | -1 | risk-on | bullish | 1 | 0.4151 | 0.4322 | 0.924 | 1 | 8.35 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.6 | -0.6 | -1 | True |
| 49 | Global equities rally on strong earnings and easing tensions | risk_on | -1 | risk-on | bullish | 1 | 0.5096 | 0.523 | 0.95 | 1 | 8.32 | 1.0 | 1 | 0.7 | -0.7 | -1 | True |
| 50 | Gold hits record high as central banks keep buying bullion | gold_direct | 1 | direct demand | bullish | 1 | 0.8306 | 0.8525 | 0.95 | 1 | 8.4 | 1.0 | 1 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1 | True |
| 51 | Gold ETFs post biggest weekly inflows in three years | gold_direct | 1 | investment inflows | bullish | 1 | 0.1983 | 0.208 | 0.9112 | 1 | 9.46 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1 | True |
| 52 | China's central bank extends gold buying spree to 18th month | gold_direct | 1 | official-sector demand | neutral | 0 | 0.1824 | 0.8097 | 0.6194 | 1 | 8.66 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 1 | True |
| 53 | Miners struggle to meet gold demand as supply deficit widens | gold_direct | 1 | supply deficit | bullish | 1 | 0.4046 | 0.4306 | 0.8862 | 1 | 8.62 | -1.0 | -1 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 1 | True |
| 54 | Gold slides 2% as investors book profits after record run | gold_direct | -1 | profit-taking pressure | bearish | -1 | -0.8064 | 0.8759 | 0.853 | -1 | 8.85 | -1.0 | -1 | -0.6 | -0.8 | -1 | True |
| 55 | Gold tumbles below key support as ETF outflows accelerate | gold_direct | -1 | outflows | bearish | -1 | -0.6862 | 0.815 | 0.727 | -1 | 8.49 | -1.0 | -1 | -0.7 | -0.9 | -1 | True |
| 56 | Bullion demand weakens as Indian jewellery buying stalls | gold_direct | -1 | physical demand soft | neutral | 0 | 0.1625 | 0.8019 | 0.6038 | 1 | 8.81 | -1.0 | -1 | -0.4 | -0.5 | -1 | True |
| 57 | Speculators slash bullish gold bets as dollar strengthens | gold_direct | -1 | positioning unwind | bearish | -1 | -0.8967 | 0.9392 | 0.9134 | -1 | 8.95 | 1.0 | 1 | -0.5 | -0.6 | -1 | True |
| 58 | Fed holds rates steady, signals no rate hike on the horizon | negation_traps | 1 | dovish hold; keyword layer sees the phrase rate hike and flips it gold-bearish | bearish | -1 | -0.2518 | 0.5065 | 0.3308 | -1 | 8.84 | -1.0 | -1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 1 | True |
| 59 | Powell says no rate cuts until inflation shows sustained cooling | negation_traps | -1 | hawkish hold; keyword layer sees rate cut and calls it gold-bullish | bearish | -1 | -0.1605 | 0.4276 | 0.231 | -1 | 8.46 | 1.0 | 1 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -1 | True |
| 60 | Recession fears fade as US data streak beats estimates | negation_traps | -1 | fading fear is risk-on; keywords see recession plus beats and cancel out | bullish | 1 | 0.2104 | 0.2144 | 0.9636 | 1 | 9.72 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.4 | -0.4 | -1 | True |
| 61 | Inflation fails to accelerate, easing pressure on the Fed | negation_traps | 1 | disinflation opens door to cuts | bullish | 1 | 0.4018 | 0.6285 | 0.4698 | 1 | 8.34 | 1.0 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 1 | True |
| 62 | Fed's Bowman: not yet confident inflation is beaten, cuts premature | negation_traps | -1 | hawkish pushback phrased around negations | bullish | 1 | 0.3185 | 0.3501 | 0.8346 | 1 | 9.38 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.4 | -0.5 | -1 | True |
| 63 | Central bank stops short of hiking, but warns tightening may resume | negation_traps | -1 | hawkish hold with tightening bias | bearish | -1 | -0.255 | 0.3532 | 0.565 | -1 | 9.12 | -1.0 | -1 | -0.3 | -0.4 | -1 | True |
| 64 | No safe-haven bid for gold despite equity wobble, analysts say | negation_traps | -1 | explicitly negated haven demand | bullish | 1 | 0.5529 | 0.5748 | 0.9266 | 1 | 8.77 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.3 | -0.4 | -1 | True |
| 65 | Jobs report not as weak as feared, dollar recovers | negation_traps | -1 | less-bad data is dollar-positive | bullish | 1 | 0.4404 | 0.4931 | 0.8068 | 1 | 8.41 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.3 | -0.4 | -1 | True |
| 66 | US manufacturing output plunges as new orders dry up | inverted_metrics | 1 | weak economy is dovish/gold-bullish; keyword layer reads plunges as bearish | neutral | 0 | 0.1649 | 0.8098 | 0.6196 | 1 | 9.12 | -1.0 | -1 | -0.5 | 0.5 | 1 | True |
| 67 | US factory activity slumps to three-year low | inverted_metrics | 1 | weak data; keyword reads slumps as bearish | neutral | 0 | 0.1219 | 0.8488 | 0.6976 | 0 | 8.43 | -1.0 | -1 | -0.5 | 0.5 | 1 | True |
| 68 | Consumer spending falls for third straight month | inverted_metrics | 1 | weak data; keyword reads falls as bearish | neutral | 0 | 0.0446 | 0.8583 | 0.7166 | 0 | 8.1 | -1.0 | -1 | -0.5 | 0.5 | 1 | True |
| 69 | Private payrolls growth slides to weakest pace since 2020 | inverted_metrics | 1 | weak jobs; keyword reads slides as bearish | neutral | 0 | 0.061 | 0.911 | 0.822 | 0 | 8.98 | -1.0 | -1 | -0.5 | 0.5 | 1 | True |
| 70 | Jobless claims hit two-year high as layoffs spread | inverted_metrics | 1 | higher claims = weaker economy = gold-bullish | neutral | 0 | 0.1605 | 0.8272 | 0.6544 | 1 | 9.5 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.5 | 0.5 | 1 | True |
| 71 | US unemployment rate hits 4.5%, highest since 2021 | inverted_metrics | 1 | higher unemployment = dovish = gold-bullish | bullish | 1 | 0.2677 | 0.4956 | 0.37 | 1 | 8.59 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.6 | 0.6 | 1 | True |
| 72 | Lakers clinch playoff berth with overtime win over Suns | distractors | 0 | irrelevant | neutral | 0 | 0.0464 | 0.9454 | 0.8908 | 0 | 8.68 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | True |
| 73 | New Marvel film smashes box office records on opening weekend | distractors | 0 | irrelevant | neutral | 0 | 0.0508 | 0.9449 | 0.8898 | 0 | 8.87 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | True |
| 74 | Apple unveils thinner MacBook with faster chip lineup | distractors | 0 | irrelevant | neutral | 0 | 0.0402 | 0.957 | 0.914 | 0 | 8.14 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | True |
| 75 | Scientists discover new deep-sea species off Pacific coast | distractors | 0 | irrelevant | neutral | 0 | 0.0483 | 0.9494 | 0.8988 | 0 | 9.87 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | True |
| 76 | Heavy rain forecast for the Midwest through the weekend | distractors | 0 | irrelevant | neutral | 0 | -0.0285 | 0.8605 | 0.721 | 0 | 8.43 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | True |
| 77 | Streaming service raises subscription prices in Europe | distractors | 0 | irrelevant | neutral | 0 | 0.0237 | 0.972 | 0.944 | 0 | 8.04 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | True |
| 78 | Electric vehicle startup recalls 12,000 cars over software glitch | distractors | 0 | irrelevant | neutral | 0 | 0.0215 | 0.9771 | 0.9542 | 0 | 9.02 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | True |
| 79 | Local elections see record turnout in several US states | distractors | 0 | irrelevant | neutral | 0 | 0.0548 | 0.9367 | 0.8734 | 0 | 8.39 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | True |