Harwinder Sekhon
2cc5915b00
Two bodies of work that touch the same files, so one commit. Direction and setup-size campaign (2026-09-30 → 10-01, owner's RISK-FIRST rule, written before the runs): - SIGNAL: M15 daily-trend veto (factory override 7, xau_strategy.daily_trend_veto "both"). A finished setup against a clear daily trend (closed D1 bars, Sunday stubs dropped; close vs its 50-bar EMA AND vs the close 60 kept days earlier) is removed as the last step of the core. One definition (signal_aggregator.daily_trend_series) for live, the bar replay and the twin's host side; D1 is a required frame of the M15 scan; mirrored in cuda_signal_kernels.py K2. W3 824 / +205.12R / PF 1.73 / max DD 12.4R vs 1105 / +195.79R / 1.49 / 20.9R; 2019 → 2026 1473 / +223.33R / 1.42 / 41.5R vs 2091 / +192.53R / 1.24 / 64.8R; unseen holdout −4.62R vs −6.63R. - FAILED, not shipped: the veto on M5 (W3 drawdown 10.1R → 15.2R) and on H1 (−9.7R), buy-only and sell-only on M15, the wide-stop cap (xau_strategy.wide_stop_cap_atr stays 0.0, a research knob). - New M15 pins: W2 dfc647ee…, OOS e87b6de1…, W3 ad3b0dbd…. M5 / H1 / H4 pins unchanged. --set xau_strategy.daily_trend_veto=off reproduces the previous M15 pins byte for byte. Twin and reference script MD5-equal on every window; recorder and feature-export parity re-proved; base-rate table rebuilt. - DISPLAY (books byte-identical): exposure.py — the lot size for trade_size.risk_per_trade (new config.json block, off by default, private to the owner) and the count of alerted same-direction plans still open (signals.alerted_at, read-only open_alerted_setups); the daily trend in words on Telegram, the CLI and the dashboard; signals.daily_trend logged. - providers/oanda: a date window with no bars is an empty page, not an error (a D1 pad starting on a Saturday could not be fetched). - Reports only, nothing shipped: seven context screens (no state nominated) and eight outside data sources (none adds a forecast to gold's own daily trend). - Independent verification (report section 5.13): every figure reproduced on both scripts, scoring identical to the previous commit on all four timeframes, no look-ahead. Caveats recorded there: this is a risk filter, not a more accurate direction call; nine tenths of the 2019 → 2026 gain is 2022; the neighbour clause is thin (a simple 100-day average misses the R line by 1.2R); "never adds a trade" is an observation, not a guarantee. Bug review of the whole codebase (2026-10-01). Signal path clean. 17 defects elsewhere, plus 4 found by an independent review of the fixes; all fixed, each with a test; no trade book changed: - telegram_bot: one _deliver_alert for the candle scan and the level break. The row is stamped alerted_at BEFORE the send, on a one-worker alert-db pool, and un-stamped when no chat received it or the task is cancelled mid-stamp, so two alerts at one candle close count each other and no SQLite write runs on the event loop. The 5-bar cooldown counts bars of the scan's own frame (== gpu_backtest._apply_cooldown; clock time released the 22:00 UTC bar after the settlement pause) and is restored from signals.db at start-up. The lot-size line goes to the owner's own chat only (a group the owner ran /autoscan in used to receive it). /status gains a news-model line and escapes failure details. - signal_log: mark_alerted returns the stamp it wrote; unmark_alerted; last_alerted_bars (read-only). - advisory_outcome: candle continuity is judged bar by bar inside the walk; a hole after a trade's exit no longer voids it. The stored-candle replay resolves 108 of 111 logged setups instead of 99, all equal to the live resolver's R. - providers/oanda: an empty date window is accepted only when it is 5 days or shorter and no malformed candle was skipped; a longer one is retried, then refused, instead of being cached as history with a hole. - news_engine: blank RSS titles skipped; one unreadable headline no longer costs the local model its whole batch (checked on the real bundle); model health recorded; no DeepSeek audit call in a process that does not archive; event-direction cache keyed per release; peek_week_events never fetches. - llm_client: chat_json never raises and never logs the API key (requests quotes the Authorization value in InvalidHeader; error bodies are redacted). - signal_aggregator: the scan's news block is guarded; the replay path (use_news=False) assigns exactly the values it did before. - agent_panel: PANEL_PROMPT_VERSION v2.2 — same prompt text, corrected input (event timing over the cached calendar week, headlines newest first). scripts/panel_replay.py replays the logged payload per persona; scripts/label_scan_outcomes.py counts with an ISO cutoff. - test_all.py: no ALTER TABLE … DROP COLUMN (the live box has SQLite 3.34); tests that write Parquet print a notice and return without pyarrow. Verification after the last code change: suite 632 passed, 0 failed (also with both Parquet engines blocked and FB2_BACKEND=cpu, the live box's view); the five reference MD5s reproduce on both backtesters, 0 cache fallbacks; Module 37 green; static Python 3.9 / SQLite 3.34 check clean on every touched file. Evidence: backtest/research/daily_trend_campaign_2026-09-30.md, context_screens_2026-10.md, new_inputs_2026-10.md; CLAUDE.md sections 2, 4, 6, 8, 9, 10 and 11; pair_signals/xauusd.py docstring (M15 override 7).
236 lines
17 KiB
Markdown
236 lines
17 KiB
Markdown
# Context screens after the daily-trend veto — declared before looking, 2026-10-01
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Follow-up to `daily_trend_campaign_2026-09-30.md` (owner decision 2026-09-30: "more context
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screens"). The daily chart was information the engine had never seen, and it paid on M15. This
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file asks the same question of seven more pieces of context. Sections 1 to 3 were written before
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any number in section 4 existed.
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## 1. Books and slices
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The books as shipped on 2026-09-30, `--spread 0.65`, CUDA twin (byte-identical to
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`gpu_backtest.py` on the paired runs of the campaign report):
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| Book | Window | Trades / R | MD5 |
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|---|---|---|---|
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| M15 LONG (veto on) | 2019-01-01 → 2026-08-07 | 1473 / +223.33 | `aa5253aa…` |
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| M15 W3 (veto on) | 2023-09-05 → 2026-09-05 | 824 / +205.12 | `ad3b0dbd…` |
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| M5 LONG | 2019-01-01 → 2026-08-07 | 1052 / +128.10 | `3f0c091c…` |
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| M5 W3 | 2023-09-05 → 2026-09-05 | 870 / +153.64 | `d20ec8a3…` |
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Four slices per timeframe: LONG era A (entries 2019–2023), LONG era B (2024 → 2026-08-07), W3
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first half (before 2025-03-05), W3 second half. W3 overlaps era B, so the four slices are not
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independent; that is known and accepted for a screen.
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## 2. The seven features (closed bars only, as of the trade's decision time)
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Decision time = the trade's entry time (the entry is the open of the bar after the signal bar, so
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it equals the signal bar's close). A bar counts only when it had closed by then.
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Daily bars: provider D1 candles (UTC days), Sunday stub bars dropped, usable from label + 1 day.
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1. **Weekly trend.** Weekly bars = the kept daily bars grouped into weeks ending Friday; a week is
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usable once its Friday bar is. State +1 when the weekly close is above its 20-week EMA
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(`ewm(span=20, adjust=False)`) AND above the close 12 weeks earlier; −1 when below both; else 0.
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Trade state: `with` / `against` / `unclear`.
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2. **Four-hour trend.** Provider H4 candles (UTC-aligned), usable from label + 4 h. State +1 when
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the close is above its 50-bar EMA AND above the close 30 bars earlier; −1 when below both; else
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0. Trade state: `with` / `against` / `unclear`.
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3. **Daily-trend strength.** `(Close − Close 60 kept days earlier) / ATR14`, ATR14 = the simple
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14-day mean of the true range, taken in the trade's direction (multiplied by −1 for a SELL).
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Trade state by fixed cut-offs: `counter` (< 0), `weak` (0 to 5), `medium` (5 to 12),
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`strong` (> 12 daily ATRs).
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4. **Daily volatility state.** ATR14 / Close, ranked within its own trailing 250 kept days
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(percentile, the current day included). Trade state: `quiet` (< 33%), `normal`, `wild` (> 67%).
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5. **Place in the 20-day range.** `(Close − lowest Low of 20 kept days) / (highest High − lowest
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Low)`, mirrored for a SELL (1 − value). Trade state: `near the far edge` (< 1/3: buying near
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the 20-day low or selling near the high), `middle`, `near the chasing edge` (> 2/3: buying near
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the 20-day high or selling near the low).
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6. **Tick-volume surge.** Volume of the signal bar divided by the median volume of the same clock
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slot (same hour and minute, UTC) over that slot's previous 20 bars. Trade state: `thin`
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(< 0.8), `usual` (0.8 to 1.5), `surge` (> 1.5).
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7. **Time to a high-impact US release** (`backtest/cache/calendar.parquet`, currency USD, impact
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high, time not masked; the file starts 2023-09-01, so W3 only). Minutes from the decision time
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to the nearest such release. Trade state: `0–30 min before`, `0–30 min after`,
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`30–120 min before`, `30–120 min after`, `clear` (more than 2 hours either side).
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Rows whose feature cannot be computed (not enough history) are counted as `n/a` and never flagged.
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## 3. Rule
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A screen is an in-book statistic: it cannot see the trades a change would add and it ignores the
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5-bar cooldown. It can only nominate a hypothesis.
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- A state is **nominated** only if, on one timeframe, it holds at least 8% of the trades of BOTH
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books (LONG and W3) and its total R is negative in ALL FOUR slices.
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- For each nominated state the mechanism is written down before its replay.
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- At most **three** replays in total, on the final-veto research harness of the campaign (K1 + K2
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of the twin, a mask on the final candidates before the cooldown, the shared resolver), judged by
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the same risk-first rule T against the shipped book: W3 R ≥ 97% of control, W3 PF ≥ control +
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0.10, W3 max drawdown ≤ control, LONG R ≥ control, LONG max drawdown ≤ control, 2021 + 2022
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better, HOLDOUT R ≥ control − 0.5R, the same at $0.30, at least 20 trades differ. (No
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neighbour-definition clause here: a pass only earns a full Stage-1/Stage-2 build, where the
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neighbours are tested.)
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- No nomination, no replay. No second cut-off, no other bins, no "best of seven" story afterwards.
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With 7 features, about 25 states and 2 timeframes, a state that is negative in four overlapping
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slices by luck alone is not rare; that is why a nomination is only a ticket to a replay.
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## 4. Results
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Run 2026-10-01 on the four books of section 1 (read from the campaign's exported CSVs; the feature
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frames are the kept Oanda cache windows: daily `1d_20150303_20260807` / `1d_20191105_20260905`,
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four-hour `4h_20181031_20260807` / `4h_20230114_20260905`, the books' own primary frames for
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volume, `calendar.parquet` for releases). Every trade's decision time equals its entry time in
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all four books (no entry sat behind a market closure). Cells are total R (trades); "mean" is R per
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trade.
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### 4.1 M15 (daily-trend veto on): LONG 1473 trades / +223.33R, W3 824 trades / +205.12R
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**M15 — 1. weekly trend**
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| State | LONG trades (share) | LONG R / mean | W3 trades (share) | W3 R / mean | LONG era A (2019–2023) | LONG era B (2024–2026) | W3 first half | W3 second half | Nominated |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| against | 78 (5%) | -15.0 / -0.193 | 25 (3%) | +3.9 / +0.157 | -18.3 (58) | +3.2 (20) | +3.8 (7) | +0.1 (18) | |
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| unclear | 176 (12%) | +28.1 / +0.160 | 101 (12%) | +37.8 / +0.375 | +1.9 (102) | +26.2 (74) | +25.4 (61) | +12.5 (40) | |
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| with | 1219 (83%) | +210.3 / +0.173 | 698 (85%) | +163.4 / +0.234 | +53.1 (568) | +157.2 (651) | +47.6 (316) | +115.8 (382) | |
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**M15 — 2. four-hour trend**
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| State | LONG trades (share) | LONG R / mean | W3 trades (share) | W3 R / mean | LONG era A (2019–2023) | LONG era B (2024–2026) | W3 first half | W3 second half | Nominated |
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| against | 260 (18%) | +23.3 / +0.090 | 134 (16%) | +14.8 / +0.111 | +12.4 (137) | +10.9 (123) | +3.4 (59) | +11.4 (75) | |
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| unclear | 167 (11%) | +16.8 / +0.100 | 84 (10%) | +16.7 / +0.199 | +0.3 (90) | +16.5 (77) | +1.8 (41) | +14.9 (43) | |
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| with | 1046 (71%) | +183.3 / +0.175 | 606 (74%) | +173.6 / +0.286 | +24.1 (501) | +159.2 (545) | +71.5 (284) | +102.1 (322) | |
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**M15 — 3. daily-trend strength**
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| State | LONG trades (share) | LONG R / mean | W3 trades (share) | W3 R / mean | LONG era A (2019–2023) | LONG era B (2024–2026) | W3 first half | W3 second half | Nominated |
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| counter | 145 (10%) | -4.8 / -0.033 | 72 (9%) | +16.9 / +0.234 | -13.1 (92) | +8.3 (53) | +15.2 (39) | +1.7 (33) | |
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| medium | 586 (40%) | +106.6 / +0.182 | 393 (48%) | +94.6 / +0.241 | +16.7 (199) | +89.9 (387) | +9.5 (162) | +85.1 (231) | |
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| strong | 17 (1%) | +4.6 / +0.268 | 10 (1%) | +4.8 / +0.483 | -0.3 (7) | +4.8 (10) | -1.1 (1) | +5.9 (9) | |
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| weak | 725 (49%) | +117.0 / +0.161 | 349 (42%) | +88.8 / +0.254 | +33.5 (430) | +83.5 (295) | +53.1 (182) | +35.7 (167) | |
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**M15 — 4. daily volatility state**
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| State | LONG trades (share) | LONG R / mean | W3 trades (share) | W3 R / mean | LONG era A (2019–2023) | LONG era B (2024–2026) | W3 first half | W3 second half | Nominated |
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| normal | 445 (30%) | +54.8 / +0.123 | 299 (36%) | +77.6 / +0.259 | -11.8 (194) | +66.6 (251) | +6.7 (118) | +70.8 (181) | |
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| quiet | 373 (25%) | +64.1 / +0.172 | 152 (18%) | +51.7 / +0.340 | +24.2 (235) | +39.9 (138) | +38.9 (109) | +12.8 (43) | |
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| wild | 655 (44%) | +104.4 / +0.159 | 373 (45%) | +75.9 / +0.203 | +24.3 (299) | +80.1 (356) | +31.1 (157) | +44.8 (216) | |
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**M15 — 5. place in the 20-day range**
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| State | LONG trades (share) | LONG R / mean | W3 trades (share) | W3 R / mean | LONG era A (2019–2023) | LONG era B (2024–2026) | W3 first half | W3 second half | Nominated |
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| middle | 420 (29%) | +54.9 / +0.131 | 230 (28%) | +32.3 / +0.140 | +25.3 (217) | +29.7 (203) | +30.9 (107) | +1.4 (123) | |
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| near the chasing edge | 835 (57%) | +143.5 / +0.172 | 483 (59%) | +147.1 / +0.305 | +8.8 (400) | +134.7 (435) | +40.6 (227) | +106.5 (256) | |
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| near the far edge | 218 (15%) | +24.8 / +0.114 | 111 (13%) | +25.7 / +0.231 | +2.6 (111) | +22.2 (107) | +5.3 (50) | +20.4 (61) | |
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**M15 — 6. tick-volume surge**
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| State | LONG trades (share) | LONG R / mean | W3 trades (share) | W3 R / mean | LONG era A (2019–2023) | LONG era B (2024–2026) | W3 first half | W3 second half | Nominated |
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| surge | 556 (38%) | +83.1 / +0.149 | 226 (27%) | +45.7 / +0.202 | +45.8 (355) | +37.3 (201) | +22.5 (110) | +23.1 (116) | |
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| thin | 220 (15%) | +15.6 / +0.071 | 125 (15%) | +28.5 / +0.228 | -10.4 (99) | +26.0 (121) | +11.5 (48) | +17.0 (77) | |
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| usual | 697 (47%) | +124.7 / +0.179 | 473 (57%) | +130.9 / +0.277 | +1.4 (274) | +123.2 (423) | +42.7 (226) | +88.3 (247) | |
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**M15 — 7. time to a high-impact US release (W3 only)**
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| State | LONG trades (share) | LONG R / mean | W3 trades (share) | W3 R / mean | LONG era A (2019–2023) | LONG era B (2024–2026) | W3 first half | W3 second half | Nominated |
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| 0–30 min after | | | 42 (5%) | +8.9 / +0.212 | | | +4.7 (27) | +4.2 (15) | |
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| 0–30 min before | | | 26 (3%) | +8.7 / +0.336 | | | +7.8 (18) | +0.9 (8) | |
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| 30–120 min after | | | 75 (9%) | +28.4 / +0.378 | | | +11.7 (51) | +16.6 (24) | |
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| 30–120 min before | | | 22 (3%) | +16.1 / +0.732 | | | +12.9 (18) | +3.2 (4) | |
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| clear | | | 659 (80%) | +143.0 / +0.217 | | | +39.6 (270) | +103.5 (389) | |
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### 4.2 M5: LONG 1052 trades / +128.10R, W3 870 trades / +153.64R
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**M5 — 1. weekly trend**
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| State | LONG trades (share) | LONG R / mean | W3 trades (share) | W3 R / mean | LONG era A (2019–2023) | LONG era B (2024–2026) | W3 first half | W3 second half | Nominated |
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| against | 258 (25%) | +11.0 / +0.043 | 202 (23%) | +6.6 / +0.033 | +9.4 (69) | +1.6 (189) | +3.8 (10) | +2.8 (192) | |
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| unclear | 84 (8%) | +6.3 / +0.075 | 88 (10%) | +24.6 / +0.279 | -7.5 (30) | +13.8 (54) | +8.2 (12) | +16.4 (76) | |
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| with | 710 (67%) | +110.8 / +0.156 | 580 (67%) | +122.5 / +0.211 | -12.3 (159) | +123.1 (551) | +4.7 (114) | +117.8 (466) | |
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**M5 — 2. four-hour trend**
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| State | LONG trades (share) | LONG R / mean | W3 trades (share) | W3 R / mean | LONG era A (2019–2023) | LONG era B (2024–2026) | W3 first half | W3 second half | Nominated |
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| against | 332 (32%) | +3.0 / +0.009 | 255 (29%) | +11.2 / +0.044 | -5.5 (98) | +8.4 (234) | -0.9 (35) | +12.2 (220) | |
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| unclear | 126 (12%) | +13.7 / +0.109 | 105 (12%) | +17.8 / +0.170 | +0.6 (28) | +13.1 (98) | +0.8 (13) | +17.0 (92) | |
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| with | 594 (56%) | +111.4 / +0.188 | 510 (59%) | +124.6 / +0.244 | -5.5 (132) | +116.9 (462) | +16.9 (88) | +107.7 (422) | |
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**M5 — 3. daily-trend strength**
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| State | LONG trades (share) | LONG R / mean | W3 trades (share) | W3 R / mean | LONG era A (2019–2023) | LONG era B (2024–2026) | W3 first half | W3 second half | Nominated |
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| counter | 296 (28%) | +0.7 / +0.003 | 241 (28%) | -2.6 / -0.011 | +8.8 (87) | -8.0 (209) | +3.7 (18) | -6.3 (223) | |
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| medium | 367 (35%) | +77.3 / +0.211 | 318 (37%) | +78.4 / +0.247 | -1.2 (49) | +78.4 (318) | +6.9 (53) | +71.6 (265) | |
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| strong | 14 (1%) | +16.6 / +1.186 | 13 (1%) | +15.6 / +1.199 | +1.0 (1) | +15.6 (13) | +0.0 (0) | +15.6 (13) | |
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| weak | 375 (36%) | +33.5 / +0.089 | 298 (34%) | +62.2 / +0.209 | -19.0 (121) | +52.5 (254) | +6.2 (65) | +56.1 (233) | |
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**M5 — 4. daily volatility state**
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| State | LONG trades (share) | LONG R / mean | W3 trades (share) | W3 R / mean | LONG era A (2019–2023) | LONG era B (2024–2026) | W3 first half | W3 second half | Nominated |
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| normal | 302 (29%) | +33.2 / +0.110 | 305 (35%) | +45.6 / +0.150 | -0.8 (63) | +34.0 (239) | -3.0 (42) | +48.6 (263) | |
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| quiet | 114 (11%) | +18.8 / +0.165 | 72 (8%) | +17.9 / +0.249 | +3.0 (45) | +15.8 (69) | +10.9 (37) | +7.0 (35) | |
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| wild | 636 (60%) | +76.1 / +0.120 | 493 (57%) | +90.1 / +0.183 | -12.6 (150) | +88.8 (486) | +8.8 (57) | +81.3 (436) | |
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**M5 — 5. place in the 20-day range**
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| State | LONG trades (share) | LONG R / mean | W3 trades (share) | W3 R / mean | LONG era A (2019–2023) | LONG era B (2024–2026) | W3 first half | W3 second half | Nominated |
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| middle | 323 (31%) | +11.8 / +0.037 | 271 (31%) | +18.8 / +0.069 | -6.8 (76) | +18.6 (247) | -1.8 (34) | +20.6 (237) | |
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| near the chasing edge | 439 (42%) | +101.5 / +0.231 | 380 (44%) | +115.0 / +0.303 | -2.6 (103) | +104.1 (336) | +17.2 (77) | +97.8 (303) | |
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| near the far edge | 290 (28%) | +14.8 / +0.051 | 219 (25%) | +19.9 / +0.091 | -1.0 (79) | +15.9 (211) | +1.4 (25) | +18.5 (194) | |
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**M5 — 6. tick-volume surge**
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| State | LONG trades (share) | LONG R / mean | W3 trades (share) | W3 R / mean | LONG era A (2019–2023) | LONG era B (2024–2026) | W3 first half | W3 second half | Nominated |
|
||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||
| surge | 479 (46%) | +46.2 / +0.097 | 334 (38%) | +65.3 / +0.195 | -5.9 (176) | +52.1 (303) | +13.2 (64) | +52.1 (270) | |
|
||
| thin | 152 (14%) | +9.3 / +0.061 | 134 (15%) | +18.1 / +0.135 | -8.0 (22) | +17.3 (130) | -0.7 (7) | +18.8 (127) | |
|
||
| usual | 421 (40%) | +72.6 / +0.172 | 402 (46%) | +70.3 / +0.175 | +3.4 (60) | +69.2 (361) | +4.2 (65) | +66.1 (337) | |
|
||
|
||
**M5 — 7. time to a high-impact US release (W3 only)**
|
||
|
||
| State | LONG trades (share) | LONG R / mean | W3 trades (share) | W3 R / mean | LONG era A (2019–2023) | LONG era B (2024–2026) | W3 first half | W3 second half | Nominated |
|
||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||
| 0–30 min after | | | 46 (5%) | -3.8 / -0.082 | | | -0.6 (15) | -3.2 (31) | |
|
||
| 0–30 min before | | | 18 (2%) | +1.8 / +0.098 | | | +0.7 (5) | +1.1 (13) | |
|
||
| 30–120 min after | | | 87 (10%) | +32.8 / +0.377 | | | +8.3 (31) | +24.4 (56) | |
|
||
| 30–120 min before | | | 18 (2%) | +3.4 / +0.187 | | | +2.7 (7) | +0.7 (11) | |
|
||
| clear | | | 701 (81%) | +119.5 / +0.171 | | | +5.6 (78) | +114.0 (623) | |
|
||
|
||
### 4.3 Verdict
|
||
|
||
**Nominated states: none.** No state on either timeframe holds 8% of both books and loses in all
|
||
four slices. By the rule of section 3 there is no replay and nothing ships.
|
||
|
||
What the tables do say (in-book description, not a decision):
|
||
|
||
- **M15, after the daily-trend veto, has no losing pocket left in these seven views.** The only
|
||
clearly negative cell is trades against the weekly trend in 2019–2023 (−18.3R over 58 trades),
|
||
5% of the book and positive since 2024. Trades with the four-hour trend earn +0.18R to +0.29R
|
||
each against +0.09R to +0.11R against it: weaker, still positive.
|
||
- **M5 earns its R where everything already agrees.** With the weekly trend +0.16R to +0.21R per
|
||
trade, against it +0.03R to +0.04R; with the four-hour trend +0.19R to +0.24R, against it
|
||
+0.01R to +0.04R; when the 60-day move runs against the trade, 0.00R (about 28% of the book).
|
||
Those against-the-tide M5 trades are flat, not losing, which is the same picture the formal
|
||
daily-trend test gave on M5: removing them removes no loss, and it made the worst losing run
|
||
deeper. They stay.
|
||
- **M5's profit sits near the 20-day extreme in the trade's direction** (+0.23R to +0.30R per
|
||
trade against +0.04R to +0.09R elsewhere). This repeats the 2026-08-04 finding that the best
|
||
trades are the stretched runs: a "do not chase" filter would cut the part of the book that pays.
|
||
- **Volume and news timing separate nothing reliably.** A volume surge is the best state in
|
||
2019–2023 on M15 and the middle state since; trades 30 to 120 minutes after a major US release
|
||
look good on both timeframes (+0.38R each) on 75 and 87 trades, and trades in the half hour
|
||
after a release are slightly negative on M5 (−3.8R over 46 trades, 5% of the book, below the
|
||
8% bar). Neither is a rule.
|
||
|
||
So the daily chart was the one piece of missing context that paid, on M15. Weekly and four-hour
|
||
context add nothing on top of it there, and nothing on M5 that survives the rule.
|