113 Commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
Harwinder Sekhon b936d443b8 Cleanup: remove dead code, stale docs, and all non-main branches
- Delete back-compat shims data_provider.py / oanda_provider.py;
  test_all.py now imports providers.* directly (ForexDataProvider name
  retired; the two shim-only tests removed, 268 -> 266 tests)
- Delete backtest/research/calendar_store.py (no importer, no entry
  point); config.py audit comment reworded
- Delete executed plan doc (2026-07-21 centralized-config) and the two
  unbuildable guide PDFs; HTML guides remain the source of truth
- OANDA_MIGRATION_ROADMAP.md status header corrected: phases 1-2
  shipped 2026-07-28, feed is live on Oanda; phases 3-6 still unbuilt
- Branches deleted locally + on both remotes: oanda_demo (merged),
  web-dashboard, eurusd-modular, reversal-exit-alert (owner-approved
  permanent deletion); July stash dropped

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_019zR58p8ACW1oJ5QXVUZ5es
2026-08-03 11:08:48 -04:00
Harwinder Sekhon 0396970d29 Big-candle gate (default-OFF) + M5 relaxation campaign + --set tooling
Gate 6h (big-candle entry gate): blocks all XAU entries (core, XAU_PB,
XAU_CP) when the primary TF's last 24h contains a bar with range >= K x
prior-bar ATR. Ships default-OFF: validation rejected every threshold
(K 3-6 on M5/M15 12mo) — removed trades were net-POSITIVE at every cell;
M5 quiet-window trades are the only losing bucket. Config knobs
big_candle_atr_multiple/lookback_hours, --big-candle backtest flag,
Module 17 tests.

M5 relaxation SHIPPED (validated 2026-07-30, Oanda bars, $0.30 spread):
m5_min_abs_score 30->25, m5_min_confirmation_score 10->5, hour-21 UTC
unblocked M5-only. Beats control in ALL 6 calendar years of the 5yr
replay (+230.9R/2319 PF 1.26 DD 21.3 vs +168.0R/2048 PF 1.21 DD 27.0),
12mo +107.4R PF 1.36 vs +84.6R PF 1.33, OOS +26.1R vs +17.2R, $0.70
spread +86.9R vs +66.4R. M15: every relaxation retested negative —
config unchanged. Declined-but-open: M5 hour-22 block, M15 hour-16
unblock (both fail 5yr/OOS). Evidence in the factory docstring.

Tooling: generic --set PATH=JSON research override in gpu_backtest
(typo-proof, logged); diagnose_filters filter_tags refreshed for gates
6d-6i with a staleness-guard test (Module 18); research scripts
hour_analysis/burst_profile/book_diff. Suite: 268 tests.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_014jqHpmNYmwYMowF6bPZyeD
2026-07-30 11:30:20 -04:00
Harwinder Sekhon a46aa9ccd9 Rebuild CLAUDE.md: lean architecture reference
Replaces the deleted exhaustive knob-by-knob reference with a compact
guide: commands, config precedence, pipeline architecture, rules for
changes, and current-state notes (Oanda feed, TD-pinned books).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_014jqHpmNYmwYMowF6bPZyeD
2026-07-30 11:30:07 -04:00
Harwinder Sekhon d2d4fb4ac6 Switch active data source to Oanda v20 (practice feed)
config.json.example: data_providers.active = "oanda" (credentials stay
in env/.env or the top-level oanda block; TD and Tiingo remain
registered fallbacks). Backtest parquet cache is now keyed per provider
— Oanda and TD bars diverge (2026-07-24 study), so a feed switch must
never serve another feed's cached bars; twelve_data keeps the legacy
un-prefixed filename so pinned-book caches stay valid. 254 tests green;
live smoke-tested against the practice API (66 contract checks: all
scanned TFs, boundary/freshness guarantees, real spread $0.71,
fetch_range pagination, typed error paths, CLI + backtest end-to-end).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01Mc7XKYyPySVXiUpcN82QEK
2026-07-28 20:12:59 -04:00
Harwinder Sekhon c8beb7e3ae Provider abstraction: providers/ package with BaseDataProvider template
One class per provider (TwelveData, Oanda, Tiingo), all subclassing
BaseDataProvider which owns cache, validation/cleaning, freshness +
boundary guarantees, fetch_range pagination, and streaming stubs —
subclasses implement only _fetch_raw. config.json data_providers.active
selects the live feed; data_provider.py / oanda_provider.py stay as
back-compat shims. Module 16 provider-abstraction tests (253 total green).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01Mc7XKYyPySVXiUpcN82QEK
2026-07-28 20:09:00 -04:00
Harwinder Sekhon 95f8c47d4f Research: Dukascopy real-spread study + Oanda/TD bar-divergence study
Scripts + summary CSVs for the 2026-07-24 studies (real XAU spread ~$0.65
tradable hours; Oanda vs TD bars diverge ~11% of ATR with 10% direction
flips). Large raw data files (parquet, per-boundary samples) gitignored.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01Mc7XKYyPySVXiUpcN82QEK
2026-07-28 20:08:53 -04:00
Harwinder Sekhon e254f068fd Add Oanda migration roadmap (reference, not scheduled)
Approved 2026-07-24: 6-phase plan for fully switching the signal feed
from Twelve Data to Oanda v20 (inert plumbing -> backtester agnosticism
-> pricing-stream monitor -> shadow parity -> book re-validation with
owner cost gates -> reversible cutover). TD remains a permanent
fallback. Grounded in the 2026-07-24 divergence study (10% bar-direction
flips, 11%-of-ATR noise, real Oanda spread ~$0.72 vs assumed $0.30).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01YNvxXtgz62F7kTKZZsAAAE
2026-07-24 15:12:37 -04:00
Harwinder Sekhon 5259e6e039 Oanda demo daemon: auto-execution on practice account (XAU/USD)
New independent trading daemon (oanda_daemon.py) that places orders on
an Oanda v20 practice account instead of sending Telegram alerts.
Oanda-only market data (oanda_provider.py, mid candles + real bid/ask
spread) through the unchanged signal pipeline; order execution and
trade management via oanda_executor.py (raw requests, no new deps).

Book parity with the backtester: no broker-side TP (exits = SL/TRAIL/
TIMEOUT only), bar-close-only trail ratchet with each closed bar
processed exactly once, 5-bar per-TF entry cooldown, structural SL
from the setup. Accepted divergence: one position total (skipped
signals logged for book reconciliation).

Safety/ops: fail-fast boot on rejected credentials (transient outages
continue), market orders never retried (double-fill risk), entry lock
against aligned-boundary races, restart recovery + adoption via
oanda_state.json, hourly heartbeat, asyncio exception handler, every
failure path logged. Prices formatted at instrument precision.

Config: env OANDA_* -> config.json "oanda" section (validated in
app_config). Tests: Module 15 (30 tests), suite 240 green.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01VUnCqjWBuvKRSjLwHeB9BJ
2026-07-24 14:10:45 -04:00
Harwinder Sekhon 0fc9000934 Telegram alert redesign: verdict-first layout + informational 100-pip TP
format_signal_message restyled (display-only, zero signal-logic impact):
verdict header first (signal - pair - TF - quality), trade setup moved
above the detail, per-indicator breakdown condensed to one arrow line
(_indicator_summary), heavy dividers dropped. New TP 100p line in every
setup block: entry +/- 100 pips ($10.00 on XAU) with its R-multiple vs
the stop (_INFO_TP_PIPS, formatter-only - not stamped on TradeSetup,
not in CLI/JSON/backtester). Trailing-plan logic unchanged (stamped
per-TF params, pullback fallback). Removed dead _indicator_line and
_SIGNAL_TAG. Tests 210 -> 212 (100p TP math BUY/SELL/no-setup, one-line
indicator summary).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01BoZKi67Ct6QTeiFJmybXSw
2026-07-24 10:58:22 -04:00
Harwinder Sekhon 08eae15e11 Remove Tiingo spread monitor (indicative two-tier feed, unvalidatable)
Tiingo's free /tiingo/fx/top publishes only a two-tier indicative
spread for gold ($0.10 liquid hours / $0.70 rollover+news; verified on
273 production samples + live probes) — mid ± a posted increment, not
executable depth, so it can never validate the $0.30 backtest cost
assumption. Removed one day after shipping: tiingo_provider.py, the
sampler/quote plumbing in telegram_bot.py, the channel_spread_detail
config knob and tiingo_api_key resolver, and Module 14's Tiingo tests
(221 -> 210). CLAUDE.md documents the verdict: do not re-add a spread
display from Tiingo's free FX feed.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01BoZKi67Ct6QTeiFJmybXSw
2026-07-24 10:56:55 -04:00
Harwinder Sekhon 89734c3a87 Accuracy audit fixes: alerts carry validated per-TF trail plans + 13 more
Five-agent audit of the signal path; all fixes are delivery/measurement
side. Regression-proven behavior-neutral on validated signals: the 5yr
M15 replay reproduces the pinned book exactly (+210.65R PF 1.35
WR 57.8% MaxDD 33.90R). Tests 215 -> 221.

- TradeSetup carries trail_arm_r/trail_dist_r stamped from the producing
  config; Telegram trail plan reads them (was showing default 0.6/0.75
  instead of the validated M15 arm 0.70 / M5 dist 0.85)
- Alert dedup: fingerprint = (signal, quality, direction); entry movement
  compared against last-ALERTED entry/risk (old SL-dist bucket churned on
  ATR drift -> near-duplicate alerts every candle)
- Fresh fetches enforce the closed-bar boundary check with one 3s grace
  retry, then warn (feed lag no longer silently analyzes the prior bar)
- Backtest max DD includes the zero baseline (opening losing streaks
  were undercounted; pinned M15 DD unchanged)
- Replay loads the regime-filter TF when the H4-ADX gate is on (was a
  silent no-op for M5/M15 primaries)
- clear_cache under _cache_lock; dead ROC zero-cross branches removed
  from both engines (provably unreachable); RSS dates via
  parsedate_to_datetime (named zones no longer stamped UTC); event risk
  grades from the soonest event; .env inline comments stripped;
  auto-scan skips NEUTRAL like the breach path; report_to_dict honors
  the weight-0 skip rule and emits strategy/trail params; PB funnel
  counts spread_gate/accepted; session-filter fail-open paths log loudly
- Docs corrected to match validated code (H&S neckline = lower peak,
  exhaustion anchors farthest tracked swing) with re-validation warnings

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01R5soRUeRBi8kHMB99csrJy
2026-07-23 10:31:13 -04:00
Harwinder Sekhon 91b4a6bb5e Tiingo bid/ask spread monitor + logging hardening
- tiingo_provider.py: /tiingo/fx/top quotes (10s TTL cache, graceful
  None on any failure); spread log writer. Signals never consume
  bid/ask; warn-only by design (no historical bid/ask to validate a
  gate against — live == backtest rule).
- app_config: repo-root .env loader (setdefault; shell env still wins),
  tiingo_api_key resolver (TIINGO_API_KEY/TIINGO → config.json),
  telegram.channel_spread_detail flag (default false).
- telegram_bot: 5-min spread sampler → logs/spread_log.csv (weekend-
  aware), alert-time quote refresh, bid/ask + wide-spread warning in
  signal messages, /status spread line. Raw numbers to owner DM always;
  channel only while channel_spread_detail=true (Tiingo free tier is
  internal-use-only; flip before public launch). Free-tier limit math:
  worst case ~41 req/h vs 50/h cap, one pair.
- Logging: 3h rotation x 240 backups (30-day retention), full-date
  stamps, force=True root handlers; candle loops + sampler survive
  failed cycles; breach-task exceptions logged via done-callback;
  PTB error handler; sys/threading excepthooks in main().
- test_all.py: Module 14 (tiingo, dotenv, spread routing, loop
  resilience, rotation) — 215 tests green.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01HVRmy6KspMs96o5PTPYFAB
2026-07-22 17:18:14 -04:00
Harwinder Sekhon 0823c05868 gitignore: cover M5 trail-grid research CSVs
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01VPNF37MP9Kuv62B1VBrZ1b
2026-07-21 19:39:08 -04:00
Harwinder Sekhon 3ee79b5202 M5 trail dist 0.85 (validated grid, arm unchanged)
Same-day sibling of the M15 campaign, opposite finding: on M5 the arm
point barely matters — winners need a looser leash. 5yr grid plateau
arm 0.5-0.7 x dist 0.85-1.0; shipped the OOS-preferred edge 0.60/0.85:
+231.2R PF 1.30 vs +218.0R PF 1.29 baseline, both halves better, DD
flat (19.2 vs 19.1), OOS +14.5R vs +11.1R. dist 1.0 rejected at the
OOS gate despite best in-sample total. XAU_PB pb_trail unaffected.
Factory replay reproduces the grid cell; 201/201 tests.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01VPNF37MP9Kuv62B1VBrZ1b
2026-07-21 19:13:01 -04:00
Harwinder Sekhon bf8e5fbf39 M15 trail arm 0.70 (validated grid) + backtest/live parity hardening
Parity: replay now applies the live _apply_regime_filter_live method
under the live guard (function-identity, default-off); unregistered-pair
fallback applies the config.json overlay; parity sweep gains direct
ATR/vol-regime assertions; regime-filter semantics test added.

Trail campaign: --trail-arm/--trail-dist research flags; 30-cell grid on
5yr M15 refuted the earlier-arm hypothesis and found the 0.70-0.80 arm
plateau. Shipped M15-only trail_arm_r=0.70 (factory override):
+210.7R PF 1.35 WR 57.8% vs +175.7R PF 1.30 WR 53.9% baseline; both
halves and 2024-06->2025-03 OOS better (+57.4 vs +45.4); 5yr max-DD
clause (33.9R vs 29.1R) explicitly waived by owner. M5 unchanged.
Factory replay reproduces the grid cell trade-for-trade; 201/201 tests.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01VPNF37MP9Kuv62B1VBrZ1b
2026-07-21 16:40:33 -04:00
Harwinder Sekhon 11ff49befb Remove dead code: legacy config fields, unused helpers/imports, stray files
- Delete test_ws_dual.py (standalone probe, unused) and a stale tracked log
- config.py: drop MarketSession enum, is_jpy_pair, candle_buffer_seconds,
  and the never-read legacy SignalConfig/XauStrategyConfig fields
- data_provider.py: drop uncalled get_latest_price/get_spread_estimate
- Remove unused imports (engine, telegram_bot, main, news_engine)
- test_all.py: drop/trim the corresponding defaults assertions (199 tests)
- CLAUDE.md updated to match

Zero behavior change: no production code read any removed field
(verified reference-by-reference); suite green at 199/199.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01VPNF37MP9Kuv62B1VBrZ1b
2026-07-21 14:06:55 -04:00
Harwinder Sekhon 847fa18053 Merge branch 'centralized-config': config.json deployment overlay
Centralized deployment settings (Telegram credentials, data-provider
keys/selection, scan pairs/timeframes, per-pair base blocked hours,
alert quality, log level) into a gitignored config.json with env-var
precedence. Hardcoded credentials removed from source. Zero signal-
logic change — parity pinned by tests (200/200).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01VPNF37MP9Kuv62B1VBrZ1b
2026-07-21 13:44:34 -04:00
Harwinder Sekhon f24009a784 Final review fixes: scrub tracked credentials, trim scannable TFs, absolute parity pin, scanning type-checks
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01VPNF37MP9Kuv62B1VBrZ1b
2026-07-21 13:42:00 -04:00
Harwinder Sekhon 00380448c3 gitignore: cover .env.* swap files and the whole logs/ directory
Rotated logs (telegram.log.YYYY-MM-DD) don't match *.log and a vim
.env.swp was nearly committed by a bulk add.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01VPNF37MP9Kuv62B1VBrZ1b
2026-07-21 13:30:21 -04:00
Harwinder Sekhon 798f4dec99 Docs: correct PlatformConfig overlay scope (credentials never pass through the factory)
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01VPNF37MP9Kuv62B1VBrZ1b
2026-07-21 13:30:15 -04:00
Harwinder Sekhon 3f46505af4 Docs: config.json deployment overlay (CLAUDE.md repo map, env table, test count)
Documents the app_config.py / config.json overlay shipped in Tasks 1-4:
repo-map rows for app_config.py and config.json.example, env-var table
precedence (env -> config.json -> none, hardcoded fallbacks removed
2026-07-21), PlatformConfig/pair_signals overlay call order, and the
real 199-tests/13-modules suite count. Also fixes a stale SCAN_PAIRS
comment in telegram_bot.py that still named PlatformConfig.scan_pairs
as the deployment switch instead of config.json's scanning.pairs.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01VPNF37MP9Kuv62B1VBrZ1b
2026-07-21 13:25:21 -04:00
Harwinder Sekhon a283806a5e telegram_bot: credentials/quality/scan-loops from config.json, startup guard
- Credentials, alert quality, scan pairs/timeframes, log level and
  candle-loop intervals now resolve via app_config (env -> config.json
  -> code default) instead of hardcoded fallbacks.
- _get_shared_dp() uses make_data_provider() for provider-registry
  dispatch.
- main() refuses to start without a token/chat_id, raising SystemExit
  with an actionable message instead of a bare sys.exit string.
- test_all.py Module 13: two new tests covering credential/quality/
  loop wiring via a reload, and the startup guard.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01VPNF37MP9Kuv62B1VBrZ1b
2026-07-21 13:18:05 -04:00
Harwinder Sekhon 44cadf7a9f Data provider: key from config.json/env, provider registry, drop hardcoded key
Resolves the Twelve Data API key through app_config.provider_api_key()
(env → config.json → no default) instead of a hardcoded field on
PlatformConfig. Adds data_provider.PROVIDER_REGISTRY + make_data_provider()
so signal_aggregator and the backtester build the active provider through
one seam; telegram_bot.py gets the same one-line WS-key fix now (per Task 4's
already-planned edit for that line) so the suite doesn't crash on import
between this commit and Task 4's full wiring pass.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01VPNF37MP9Kuv62B1VBrZ1b
2026-07-21 13:10:58 -04:00
Harwinder Sekhon 3669f5e33e Wire config.json overlay into the pair factory (before per-TF deltas)
Implements Task 2: apply_pair_overrides in xauusd.make_config before
the validated per-TF deltas, so e.g. M5 hour-9 appends on top of the
JSON base. Updated Module 9 equivalence test and added three parity pins.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01VPNF37MP9Kuv62B1VBrZ1b
2026-07-21 12:59:12 -04:00
Harwinder Sekhon 7455fcaa6c app_config: reject non-object config.json sections with AppConfigError
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01VPNF37MP9Kuv62B1VBrZ1b
2026-07-21 12:54:46 -04:00
Harwinder Sekhon 2c070fb9b3 Add app_config.py: config.json loader, validation, env-precedence resolvers
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01VPNF37MP9Kuv62B1VBrZ1b
2026-07-21 12:47:48 -04:00
Harwinder Sekhon 8de77deadd Plan: centralized config.json implementation (5 TDD tasks)
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01VPNF37MP9Kuv62B1VBrZ1b
2026-07-21 12:44:24 -04:00
Harwinder Sekhon bd506752ec Add config.json.example template; gitignore config.json
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01VPNF37MP9Kuv62B1VBrZ1b
2026-07-21 12:32:28 -04:00
Harwinder Sekhon bd59b5cd5b Spec: centralized config.json design (deployment settings overlay)
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01VPNF37MP9Kuv62B1VBrZ1b
2026-07-21 12:25:08 -04:00
Harwinder Sekhon a3305c81b9 News informational-only: gate sentiment bonus/penalty off by default
Add NewsConfig.sentiment_affects_signals (default False), gating the +5
aligned-sentiment confidence bonus and the 10-pt news_conflict penalty.
With event_risk_caps_signals already False, live decisions are now pure
technical, matching the backtester (use_news=False). Warnings and the
sentiment display are unchanged. Adds a gating regression test.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01FMaaPdrrrQuh1VvGQH1icN
2026-07-17 16:03:31 -04:00
harry 85b7567677 Merge pull request 'Remove EUR/USD support — XAU/USD-only codebase' (#1) from xau-only-chart-patterns into main
Reviewed-on: http://192.168.55.11:3000/harry/ForexBot2/pulls/1
2026-07-16 20:09:21 +00:00
Harwinder Sekhon de6424ec3f Enable BUY-only chart patterns on M5 — bearish patterns dropped (OOS negative)
M5 factory: cp_enabled=True, patterns limited to inv_hs, double_bottom,
bull_flag. SELL CP lost -3.21R on OOS; BUY CP: +41.8R PF 1.60 on 12mo,
+65.2R PF 1.48 on 5yr. Adds +22R to the M5 book (708 vs 513 trades).
M15/H1 remain disabled — all failed OOS validation.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_015kby7M9JwpYi8NQT2yoxAi
2026-07-16 16:08:13 -04:00
Harwinder Sekhon ca37a7ab5a Docs: CLAUDE.md — document XAU_CP archetype (pipeline step 11, generator D, cp_* knobs)
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_015kby7M9JwpYi8NQT2yoxAi
2026-07-16 14:31:45 -04:00
Harwinder Sekhon a70fc91f96 Add chart-pattern entry archetype (XAU_CP) — disabled by default
Third entry archetype: completion of classical chart patterns (double
bottom/top, H&S top / inverse H&S, bull/bear flag) — the tight canon
with the strongest documented stats. New chart_patterns.py detector
module (pure functions, ATR-unit geometry, closed-bar slices only,
first-close-beyond trigger discipline so a breakout fires exactly
once and never repaints).

Pipeline step 10 in analyze_from_dataframes: fills only empty setup
slots, allows weak-composite F grades (normal at reversal completion)
but inherits session/day blocks, mirrors MTF-opposition + SELL
vol/hour + M5 protections. Geometry: SL = pattern anchor -/+ 0.5 ATR
(min $8), TP1 = measured move, $9 spread gate, trailing exit does the
real work. Strategy tag XAU_CP.

cp_enabled defaults to False everywhere — per-TF adoption happens in
pair_signals/xauusd.py only after the standard validation rule passes.
Backtester: --cp / --cp-patterns flags to test the candidate, XAU_CP
tag recognition.

Suite: 183/183 (21 new tests: detectors, trigger discipline,
invalidation, gates, pipeline, default-off safety).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_015kby7M9JwpYi8NQT2yoxAi
2026-07-16 14:23:17 -04:00
Harwinder Sekhon 68a62b0a53 Remove EUR/USD support — XAU/USD-only codebase
EUR/USD never had a validated edge (2026-07-11/12 verdict: no config
passed validation on M5/M15/H1 at 1-pip cost; cost-to-volatility root
cause). Removed: EurUsdStrategyConfig, pair_signals/eurusd.py, EUR
gates 6h + weekend/day filters + strategy marker + trade geometry in
signal_aggregator, EUR pair registry/aliases in main.py and
gpu_backtest.py, EUR/USD news pair mappings, test_all.py Module 10.
Generic multi-currency news keyword infra kept (GBP/JPY/EUR keyword
table is not pair code). Full EUR history remains at 7d3fd95.

Suite: 162/162 green (was 187; 25 EUR-specific tests removed).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_015kby7M9JwpYi8NQT2yoxAi
2026-07-16 14:06:27 -04:00
Harwinder Sekhon 7d3fd9502e Fix on Sell order lossing by blocking time 2026-07-16 12:17:56 -04:00
Harwinder Sekhon f118ade3cf Audit fixes: cache boundary staleness, 6e session bypass, GPU engine parity
Fixes all high+medium findings from the 2026-07-16 full-codebase audit.

High:
- data_provider: cache now rejects snapshots missing the latest closed
  bar (_has_latest_closed_bar, weekend-exempt). The wall-clock TTL served
  mid-candle snapshots at the next boundary, so live M15/H1 scans ran one
  full bar behind and the bar-close session check evaluated the wrong hour.
- signal_aggregator: gate 6e (SELL quality) only acts on actionable
  grades. It was re-grading session-blocked F reports to D, which
  re-opened the M5 pullback path (entry check: quality != "F") on
  session-blocked bars.
- gpu_backtest: port the live EMA-ribbon compression/expansion logic
  (+10 conf on expansion) into the GPU engine. Its absence diverged
  composite score/conf on 7-9% of bars and flipped signals on ~0.2%.

Medium:
- gpu_backtest: Bollinger precompute uses the exact pandas rolling calls
  (cumsum E[x2]-E[x]2 lost precision at gold price levels; bb_position
  error up to 7.6e-3 crossed signal thresholds, worst during squeezes).
- gpu_backtest: --confirm-tfs defaults to the pair factory's live
  confirmation map instead of a hardcoded 1h,4h.
- gpu_backtest: entries re-anchor to the first RAW bar after the signal
  bar, so >10-sigma spike bars dropped by cleaning are no longer skipped
  at entry (favorable bias).
- gpu_backtest: per-TF warmup pad — D1 confirms get >=210 bars at window
  start (62-day pad gave ~61 bars: no EMA200, unlike live).
- data_provider: thread-safety locks for cache + throttle (shared
  provider across the bot's 4-thread pool); outlier filter keeps the
  snap-back bar after a spike instead of punching a two-bar hole.
- telegram_bot: alert fingerprint gains a risk-relative entry bucket
  (materially-moved setups re-alert) and is committed only after a
  successful send (failed sends no longer consume the alert for 1h).
- engine: disabled_indicators=["macd"] now removes the MACD pillar from
  scoring (histogram still computed for divergence).

Verification: test_all.py 187/187 (new Module 11: 8 audit-fix
regressions incl. a live-vs-GPU parity sweep with ribbon coverage);
real-data parity sweep over 813 slices of 14mo XAU M15: zero divergence
(pre-fix: 7-9% of bars diverged); both original bug repros no longer
reproduce; cached end-to-end backtest run passes with the live confirm
map. Books shift slightly vs pre-fix runs — comparability note added to
CLAUDE.md; pinned tuned numbers need re-validation under the fixed
backtester.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-16 10:24:39 -04:00
Harwinder Sekhon bdcd886722 Docs: delete DOCUMENTATION.md — both halves superseded
Unlike USAGE.md (a USD/JPY-era fossil), this doc was structurally sound:
right pair, real architecture, correct composite formula, and 8 of its 9
regime-weight cells match engine.py. It is removed because both of its
sections now have live successors, and because the numbers it does state
are wrong in ways that mislead:

- Section 1 (trader-facing) → docs/user_guide.html + beginner_guide.html,
  which are newer and cover the trailing-stop exit model this doc never
  mentions.
- Section 2 (developer reference) → CLAUDE.md.

Stale/incorrect content it carried: the entire quality-grade table was
wrong (claimed A+ 45/70, A 30/60, B 20/50, C 12/40, D 8+; the code grades
40/65, 33/55, 28/50, 25/45, 15), Divergence's trending weight was listed
2.0 vs 1.0 in code, and it predates the 2026-07 work entirely — zero
mentions of XAU_PB or trailing exits (the actual default exit model), and
near-zero coverage of the EUR/USD port.

CLAUDE.md's header now points at docs/ as the human-facing docs instead
of disclaiming this file.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-16 09:34:04 -04:00
Harwinder Sekhon 2a85f1e23c Docs: delete stale USAGE.md and superseded pullback plan
USAGE.md documented a different product: USD/JPY (unsupported — the
code is XAU/USD + EUR/USD), 16 main.py flags that don't exist
(--backtest, --optimize, --auto-session-filter, …; main.py has five),
and backtest.py/metrics.py, which aren't in the repo. Two claims were
actively misleading: it called the session filter "default off" (it is
True by default, 03:00-23:00 not 07-16) and gave regime-min-adx as 30
(real default 25). CLAUDE.md now covers the CLI, bot and backtester
correctly, so this is a delete rather than a rewrite.

PULLBACK_ENTRY_PLAN.txt was a pre-implementation draft whose spec no
longer matches what shipped — it specifies a 0.5-2.5 ATR retrace window
and a detector in engine.py, while XAU_PB ships 0.8-6.0 (the drafted
window rejected 81% of valid pullbacks) with the detector in
signal_aggregator.py so live and backtest share one code path. Its
validated outcome (+38.3R / 254 trades / 12mo M5) and every shipped
gate are recorded in CLAUDE.md and the config docstrings.

Also drops the now-dangling references to both files from CLAUDE.md
and the config.py XAU_PB comment.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-16 09:30:50 -04:00
Harwinder Sekhon 79ea70c8d7 Docs: rewrite CLAUDE.md as a complete codebase reference
Replaces the summary-level doc with a full spec derived from a read of
every core module, so contributors (and low-context models) don't have
to infer behavior or rediscover tuned values:

- repo map with line counts; flags DOCUMENTATION.md/USAGE.md as stale
- every config knob with its real default and the backtest evidence
  behind it; marks the legacy/unused fields (SignalConfig.weights,
  min_confidence, cooldown_bars, XAU h4/h1 gates) so nothing new is
  built on dead knobs
- exact indicator logic for all 9 scored indicators + ATR context,
  regime classification rules, regime-aware RSI zone tables, and the
  regime-multiplier table copied from _compute_composite (the old
  table did not match the code)
- aggregator pipeline in source order: MTF agreement, the 12 penalties
  and the diminishing cap, exhaustion block, signal/grade thresholds,
  and gates 6b-6i with exact numbers
- all three trade-setup generators with SL/TP geometry, spread gates,
  and the trailing-exit model
- bot/CLI/news/data-provider/backtester mechanics incl. realism model
  (raw-path resolution, next-open entry, SL-first ties, parallel replay)
- "Rules for making changes": validation acceptance rule, pair
  isolation, live==backtest parity, ROC's load-bearing weight

Also corrects details the old doc got wrong: test count is 179 (not
~176), EUR ships off by default, backtest/*.csv are gitignored local
artifacts rather than test-enforced pins.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-16 09:26:06 -04:00
Harwinder Sekhon a6c9493406 Docs: user guide + beginner guide PDFs
Two printable guides in docs/ (HTML source + weasyprint-rendered A4
PDFs): a trader-facing user guide (signal anatomy, trail management,
M5/M15/H1 comparison from the 12mo books, expectations, commands) and
a plain-language beginner edition (glossary, worked sizing example,
step-by-step trailing-stop walkthrough, H1-first guidance).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-12 13:42:21 -04:00
Harwinder Sekhon 53d8bc4390 Audit fixes: mixed-regime bias, live==backtest session parity, parallel replay
Fix 1 — mixed-"trending" regime (ADX strong, EMAs unaligned) was
hard-coded bullish in 5 sites: RSI reinterpretation used the uptrend
playbook (RSI 38-55 -> STRONG_BUY conf 75), BUY-only confidence
bonuses, BUY-only extension penalties, no counter-trend penalty.
Now: extremes-only RSI (as transitioning), no directional bonuses,
symmetric extension penalties. 6yr validation: H1 +67.2->+61.9R
(mixed skew 16B/11S -> 4B/7S), H4 +31.6->+27.5R (the 4 bias BUYs),
M15 +152.6->+154.7R, M5 +207.1->+206.1R with maxDD 28.7->24.3R.
The ~8R aggregate give-back is bull-market subsidy from the bug.

Fix 2 — live session filter now applies the EXACT replay-loop
predicate (session window + blocked hours on the signal bar's CLOSE
time, from the bar timestamp not wall clock). Replaces a wall-clock
filter gated on a "XAU STRATEGY" marker that no code writes, which
made live diverge from every validated book.

Fix 3 — delete dead _check_xau_oversold_bounce and
_generate_xau_trade_setup (unreachable; the latter hardcoded BUY and
skipped the spread/RR gates).

Backtester: parallel bar replay via forked workers (--workers,
default auto = cores-2 capped 12). Per-bar evaluation is pure; the
entry cooldown is applied in an ordered phase-2 pass. Proven
byte-identical to sequential on the same window; ~300 -> 1030-1680
bars/s (6yr M5: ~26min -> 5-8min). --workers 1 = sequential path.

Tests: 179 passed (new mixed-regime RSI regression test).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-11 22:57:37 -04:00
Harwinder Sekhon f3ba4d56a3 XAU: two validated per-TF gates — M15 mixed-regime block, M5 hour-9 block
M15 mixed-"trending" regime block (ADX strong, EMAs unaligned =
momentum without direction): -6.8R/24 trades on 12mo, negative both
halves; blocking scores +65.7R/499 PF 1.38 DD 10.4R vs +59.0R/521
PF 1.32 DD 12.6R, better both halves, OOS 2024-06->2025-03 neutral
(-1.4R = the 4 such trades there). M5 never trades this regime.
New XauStrategyConfig.blocked_regimes / sell_blocked_regimes knobs
(default empty) + aggregator gate 6g2; M15 factory opts in.

M5 hour-9 UTC block (post-London-open whipsaw): -28.9R/143 over the
6-year book, negative 5/7 calendar years. Full-history replay with
block: +207.1R vs +178.3R, max DD 28.7R vs 35.5R, 2023 -13.0R ->
breakeven; tuned 12mo book unchanged (139.0 vs 139.3). Hour 9 is
positive on M15 (+1.7R 6yr, +8.6R OOS) so the block is factory
M5-only.

Rejected after validation (documented in xauusd.py + session memory):
transitioning-SELL block (bull-market artifact, +5.7R in 2024 OOS),
M15 trending_down block (M5 cross-TF contradiction), losing-streak
circuit breakers, 30d efficiency-ratio trend gate, and all entry-level
indicator filters (winners == losers at entry on every feature).

Full-history context (Twelve Data 5min starts 2020-03-16): M5 6.3yr
+207R PF ~1.3 post-fix with losing year 2021; M15 +152.6R PF 1.19
DD 49.7R — edge is regime-dependent, chop years are structural.

Tests: 178 passed (new gate test + factory-equivalence updates).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-11 21:38:42 -04:00
Harwinder Sekhon 43d9064d1e Telegram: subscriber channel feed, owner lock, full risk disclaimer
- TELEGRAM_CHANNEL_ID mirrors auto-scan signal + breach alerts to a
  subscriber channel (Stars-subscription monetization; Telegram manages
  membership). Feed keeps running even when the owner's DM auto-scan
  is toggled off.
- _owner_only decorator locks all commands/buttons to TELEGRAM_CHAT_ID;
  others get a refusal pointing at the channel.
- Every signal-bearing message (detailed signal, scan summary, all-TF
  summary, breach alerts) now ends with a not-financial-advice /
  educational-use disclaimer via a single _DISCLAIMER constant.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-11 18:37:50 -04:00
Harwinder Sekhon ec13cd4c07 EUR: document closure of calendar + H1-hybrid avenues
Surprise-conditioned entries lose 2-5p at every horizon both years;
avoidance filter marginal for EUR and profit-removing for XAU; the
H1-direction + M15-pullback prototype failed its pre-registered kill
criteria (2024-25 OOS negative). EUR stays informational-only.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-11 10:26:32 -04:00
Harwinder Sekhon f88e39f5be XAU M15: adopt 1R minimum targets (per-timeframe, validated)
Finishes PENDING_STEPS Step 1 under the current trailing-exit model.
M15 window 2025-03-30->2026-05-31 ($0.30 spread): +116.6R/460 PF 1.83
vs +105.4R/424 PF 1.82 baseline, better in both halves; 2024-06->
2025-03 OOS +30.3R vs +10.6R control. Same knob on the pinned M5 book
is WORSE (+131.3R/699 vs +139.9R/547) so the override is M15-only in
the xauusd factory, per the pre-registered decision rule. M5 path
unchanged (factory override gated on primary_tf == M15).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-11 10:22:33 -04:00
Harwinder Sekhon 02bd61f378 Live news gate: stop capping signal confidence near events (XAU default)
Replaying the live danger/caution gates against the validated 12mo XAU
M5 book showed they suppress 25-35 trades worth +4.6..+7.2R/yr — trades
entered near USD releases outperform the book average (+0.475R vs
+0.256R). New NewsConfig.event_risk_caps_signals (default False =
XAU-tuned) keeps EVENT RISK warnings in alerts but no longer guts
confidence; EUR factory re-enables the caps (evidence is gold-specific).
Pinned XAU M5 regression: 547 trades, +139.94R, trade-identical.
Tests: 177 passed.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-11 10:02:27 -04:00
Harwinder Sekhon 2842351f9b Add calendar research infra: FF scraper + verified event store
Scrapes Forex Factory weekly pages (epoch datelines, actual/forecast/
impact/betterWorse) into backtest/cache/calendar.parquet (gitignored;
rebuild with the scraper). Timestamps verified: NFP/CPI/ECB times exact
across DST, and high-impact event bars average 3.5x ATR with the spike
vanishing at +/-1h shifts. calendar_store provides precise_events and
event_window_mask for screens and counterfactuals.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-11 09:47:11 -04:00
Harwinder Sekhon 58597de6d7 EUR M15/H1 investigation: document no-validated-edge verdict
Five independent tests at 1-pip cost (M15 wide-open both windows,
transitioning-slice OOS, mean-reversion trade sims, forward-return
screens on M15+M5, H1 both windows) — nothing clears cost in both
2024-25 and 2025-26. Root cause: spread is ~10% of M15 ATR on EUR.
EUR stays out of scan_pairs; open avenues documented in docstring.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-11 09:02:24 -04:00
Harwinder Sekhon 27bccf3bf5 EUR M5: commit best-found config after realism re-tune — no validated edge
12mo grid campaign (2025-07-08 → 2026-07-08, 1-pip round-trip cost,
train/val split at 2026-01-08). Donor config scored -6.7R/34 trades.
Findings: transitioning regime -27R/88 wide-open; A-grade entries lose
(-26R) while B-grade wins; Fridays -17R; hours 8/12/13/18/19 UTC bleed;
score 30-35 band holds the train-half losses; trailing (0.45R arm/0.5R
dist) beats static TP1 and gold's 0.6/0.75.

Best-found config: -1.06R / 53 trades / PF 0.93 / 62.3% WR — breakeven,
FAILS acceptance (positive both halves, PF>=1.3). Per plan, EUR ships
functional but stays out of default scan_pairs. Grid results and
methodology documented in the module docstring; full numbers in
backtest/cache/eurv2_*.csv.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-10 22:14:49 -04:00
Harwinder Sekhon 2d704753d6 Update CLAUDE.md for multi-pair architecture
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-10 21:16:34 -04:00
Harwinder Sekhon 538977115b Live path: config-driven multi-pair scanning (Telegram bot + CLI)
- telegram_bot: SCAN_PAIRS/_WS_TO_PAIR/SCAN_BUTTONS all derive from
  PlatformConfig.scan_pairs (the single pair on/off switch); buttons and
  keyboards are generated per pair; _run_signal_sync builds per-pair
  configs via pair_signals factories (was: XAU defaults for any symbol);
  scan-all works per pair; PB badge matches any *_PB tag; daily-rotating
  file logs in logs/telegram.log (30-day retention)
- main.py: --pair argument (XAUUSD | EURUSD + aliases) routed through
  pair_signals factories; price display is precision-aware (2dp gold,
  5dp FX)

scan_pairs default stays [XAUUSD] until the EUR M5 re-tune validates.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-10 21:13:42 -04:00
Harwinder Sekhon e052c7aa3e Add EUR/USD test suite + map EUR news events to EUR/USD
Module 10 (21 tests): EUR config/registry/factory, EUR filter pipeline
(regime/quality/score/confidence/RSI-extended/weekend), EUR trade
geometry (swing SL buffers, pip-denominated spread gate, per-pair gate
contrast), and cross-pair isolation regressions (XAU report bit-equal
with eur_strategy flipped; XAU gates never fire on EUR reports).

news_engine: _get_affected_pairs now maps USD events to EUR/USD too and
adds an EUR entry (calendar warnings reach EUR scans).

175/175 pass.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-10 21:06:55 -04:00
Harwinder Sekhon e0789457dc Backtester: EUR/USD support with per-pair configs and default spread
- EURUSD aliases in PAIR_ALIASES
- main() builds PlatformConfig via pair_signals.PAIR_PRODUCERS factories
  (per-pair regime weights/gates/sessions); unregistered pairs keep the
  inline construction. XAU factory is asdict-identical to inline
  (enforced by test) so XAU runs are unchanged.
- --spread default now resolves from PAIR_INFO default_spread
  (XAU $0.30, EUR 0.0001) instead of a hardcoded gold value
- EUR strategy tag: renamed EUR_PB→EUR, detected in both bullish and
  bearish reasons[0] (SELL setups mark the bearish list)

Smoke-validated: 30-day EUR M5 run produces EUR-tagged trades with
1-pip round-trip cost charged.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-10 21:02:44 -04:00
Harwinder Sekhon 3b5c0b27ed Add EUR/USD signal gates, trade geometry, and weekend/session filters
Re-grafted from feature/eurusd-support onto the evolved aggregator:
- 6h EUR gate chain (regime, quality, exhaustion, EMA200, session,
  score/confidence, volatility, indicator agreement, RSI-extended),
  active only for EUR/USD with eur_strategy.enabled
- _generate_trade_setup: EUR branch reads EurUsdStrategyConfig only
  (min_sl_pips, min_rr, mature-move + quality-scaled TP, sl_atr_floor,
  swing-buffer SL) with a pip-denominated spread gate; adds a
  pip_value<=0 guard; non-EUR branch is arithmetically unchanged
  (sl_swing_buffer=1.0 extraction only)
- EUR weekend/weekday pre-filter in analyze_pair mirroring the XAU block
- "EUR STRATEGY" reasons[0] marker so the backtester tags EUR trades

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-10 20:57:54 -04:00
Harwinder Sekhon 77604960f5 Gate all XAU-only aggregator logic by pair
The SELL quality gate (6e), SELL volatility gate (6g), M5 noise gates
(6h), ATR trade-setup generator, and M5 pullback archetype are all
gold-tuned but previously keyed only on xau_strategy.enabled or the
timeframe, so they would have silently applied gold constants to any
other pair. Each now also requires display_name == "XAU/USD".

No behavior change for XAU (conditions are tautologically true for the
only registered pair today) — verified by test suite and pinned-window
backtest CSV diff.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-10 20:53:23 -04:00
Harwinder Sekhon 668b7dad51 Add pair_signals per-pair producer registry
Ported from feature/eurusd-support: PAIR_PRODUCERS registry with
make_config() factories per pair. xauusd.make_config is a pure
PlatformConfig-defaults wrapper (equality with the inline construction
is enforced by test); eurusd.make_config carries the donor branch's
regime weights and gates as a pre-realism baseline.

Adds 4 registry tests. 154/154 pass.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-10 20:52:06 -04:00
Harwinder Sekhon 88970e750b Add EUR/USD pair constants and EurUsdStrategyConfig
- EURUSD in PAIR_INFO; new per-pair price_precision and default_spread
  fields on both pairs (backtester consumes default_spread when --spread
  is omitted)
- EurUsdStrategyConfig ported from feature/eurusd-support plus EUR-local
  cost knobs (round_trip_cost=1 pip, min_tp_cost_multiple=10,
  min_sl_pips=8) so SignalConfig's gold-dollar values never apply to EUR;
  donor-tuned values are a pre-realism baseline pending re-tune
- PlatformConfig.eur_strategy field; track EUR in news currencies

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-10 20:50:08 -04:00
Harwinder Sekhon 7470e093e1 Fix 3 engine bugs: swing-point NaN false positives, ROC div-by-zero, ADX epsilon
Ported from feature/eurusd-support (e6e09c5), pair-neutral fixes:
- _find_swing_points: all(<empty generator>) is vacuously True, so a value
  surrounded by NaNs was reported as a swing point; now requires at least
  one valid neighbor on each side
- ROC: guard against zero close at the lookback positions (inf scores)
- ADX: epsilon denominator instead of NaN-replace to avoid NaN cascade

Adds 8 regression tests (Module 9). 150/150 pass.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-10 20:48:56 -04:00
Harwinder Sekhon ec33f8b718 Overhaul news engine: fix false signals, add surprise detection + caching
Improvements from a live-verified audit of the news/calendar pipeline:

- Currency tagging: keyword matching now uses letter-boundary regexes
  and drops ambiguous "us "/"eu "/"uk " tokens — "versus" no longer
  tags headlines as USD (confirmed live false positive polluting the
  XAU/USD sentiment average).

- Fetch caching: calendar events and headlines are cached class-level
  (10 min TTL, 60s retry after empty/failed fetch, lock-guarded for
  concurrent scans). Stops per-scan refetching that was tripping the
  Forex Factory rate limit; TTL stays under the 30-min pre-event
  buffer so the danger window can't go stale.

- Surprise detection: EconomicEvent.surprise is computed from parsed
  actual vs forecast (handles %, K/M/B/T suffixes, negatives). A
  surprise print widens the post-release caution window to 45 min;
  inline releases keep the original 15 min.

- Gold-aware sentiment: headlines are scored per currency, with
  monetary-policy keywords (hawkish/rate hike/tightening vs dovish/
  rate cut/easing/stimulus) inverted for XAU — "hawkish Fed" headlines
  scored +1.0 for gold before, -1.0 now (verified on live feed).

- New sentiment sources: Google News gold-focused query and CNBC
  Economy RSS (verified live; 40 → 74 unique headlines). Added
  cross-feed title dedup so syndicated stories count once.

- events_today now buckets by UTC date (feed timestamps carry US-
  Eastern offsets); --json output includes news_description.

- Removed dead NewsConfig.min_impact and unused HIGH_IMPACT_EVENTS.

Tests: 142 passed (7 new covering boundary matching, surprise
classification, post-event windows, cache reuse, gold inversion).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-10 09:43:11 -04:00
harwinder dad2432d4d Add M5 pullback entry archetype (XAU_PB): +140R combined on 12mo
Second entry pattern alongside the Keltner-breakout: enter on the
retrace to EMA21/KC-mid in an established trend (EMA >=3/4 aligned,
ADX>=20, retrace 0.8-6.0 ATR, resumption bar closed back in trend
direction, RSI in the pullback zone not the extended zone). Detector
lives in the aggregator so live and GPU-backtest paths share one
implementation. Own gates (composite floor 15, confirmation-TF
agreement, MTF opposition, vol regimes) with a diagnostic funnel.

PB stops anchor to the pullback swing (~$8 vs ~$25 breakout), so PB
trades get their own trail arm (0.8R vs 0.6R global) via per-trade
trail overrides in the backtester and strategy-aware Telegram alerts.

12mo M5 validation: PB alone +38.3R/254 trades, positive both halves
and all four full quarters; core breakout trades undisturbed
(+101.9R vs +105.0 baseline). Combined book: 549 trades (~10.6/wk),
+140.1R, PF 1.78, DD 11.3R vs 311 trades/+105.0R before.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-09 14:21:59 -04:00
harwinder 3ac36525b0 Add pullback entry pattern implementation plan
Design doc for a second M5 entry archetype: enter on retrace to
EMA21/KC-mid in an established trend instead of at Keltner-breakout
extension. Includes detector spec, geometry, validation protocol
(both-halves + quarterly + displacement checks), and the +105R
baseline to beat. Session/frequency knobs (blocked hours, cooldown)
were tested 2026-07-09 and confirmed already optimal — this is the
remaining evidence-backed entry-side direction.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-09 13:51:00 -04:00
harwinder 987ec5bbb0 Add M5 gates 5-6 and trailing-stop exits (+48R → +105R on 12mo)
Gates 5-6 in the M5 filter: block 'high' vol regime entries (chop
transition — 61% WR, negative total while low/normal/extreme all
positive) and block SELLs with RSI<25 (dip already extended, mean-
reverts before target). 365d: 419→311 trades, +41→+48.4R, DD 11.2→8.0R.

Replace the fixed RR-0.5 take-profit with a trailing stop: arm at
+0.6R favorable excursion, trail 0.75R behind best price, stop levels
update at bar close (conservative). The RR-0.5 target was the binding
constraint — winners kept running after TP. Whole trail parameter grid
(arm 0.4-1.2 × dist 0.5-1.25) lands +90-103R, a plateau not a spike;
also +91.7R on the pre-gate 419-trade population. TP1 stays advisory;
Telegram alerts include the arm price and trail distance. max_hold
200→300 bars (trailing exits need room; +10R).

12mo M5, same 311 trades: +105.0R total, PF 2.27, DD 7.9R, 61% WR,
train/val +54.6/+50.4, every quarter positive.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-09 13:34:57 -04:00
harwinder db16f209bb Fix M5 signal quality: ATR ordering bug, noise gates, blocked-hour leak (+41R)
ATR was computed after EMAs so ribbon compression detection was dead code
on all timeframes — moved ATR first. Extended M5 swing S/R lookback from
50 to 120 bars. Added four M5-specific filters: min score, MTF agreement,
confirmation TF conviction, and SELL quality cap (A-grade M5 shorts enter
at dip extremes and lose). Fixed backtester blocked-hour check to use bar
close time matching the live bot. Added trade geometry config (spread gate,
SL floor, TP floor RR) and primary_tf mismatch guard in backtester.

Backtest: 1133 trades/+11.5R → 419 trades/+41.0R, PF 1.03→1.37, DD 21→11R.
Train/val split positive in both halves (+19.8R/+21.3R).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-09 12:48:36 -04:00
harwinder d95d31a852 Disable TP tightening: tuned pre-spread, halves total R under real fills
A/B on M15 2025-03-30→2026-05-31 with $0.30 spread + gap-through fills
(511 identical entries, only exits differ):
  factor 0.8 / min_rr 0.4: +36.1R (avg +0.071R, SELL +1.2R)
  factor 1.0 / min_rr 0.5: +66.8R (avg +0.131R, SELL +9.6R)
Worse in both train and validation halves and both directions. The 20%
tighter targets buy +1.8pt win rate but shrink every win while the fixed
spread stays constant. The knob remains for re-tuning with costs included.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-08 21:35:59 -04:00
harwinder 5a0af663c1 Add WebSocket dual-connection test script
Probes whether Twelve Data allows two simultaneous WS connections
for one symbol (SDK-based, 30s run, prints per-connection verdict).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-08 21:32:46 -04:00
harwinder b191cee27e Telegram bot: WS heartbeat, breach alerts, alert dedup, interactive menu
WebSocket:
- Send heartbeat every 10s — Twelve Data drops idle connections, so the
  monitor previously died on weekends/quiet hours and churned reconnects
- Log failed symbol subscriptions from subscribe-status events
- Stamp fresh live tick price + age into every alert message

Alerts:
- Re-enable level-breach alerts: WS breach triggers M15 rescan and sends
  the report when actionable (was scanning and discarding the result)
- Dedup: identical (signal, quality, direction) per pair/TF is sent once,
  re-armed after 1h — no more repeat alerts every candle
- Configurable minimum alert quality (C+/B+/A), cycled from the menu
- Trade setup shows dollar risk/reward alongside pips

Interactive menu (/start, /scan):
- Timeframe scans, Scan All, auto-scan ON/OFF toggle, alert-quality
  cycle, status, and help as inline buttons
- Markdown-safe edits: 'message not modified' swallowed, parse failures
  fall back to plain text; exception text escaped

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-08 21:32:46 -04:00
harwinder 6a96ed6006 Fix live/backtest parity, SELL-side losses, and indicator repairs (+42% total R)
Live pipeline:
- Drop still-forming candle before analysis (signals no longer repaint)
- Direction-aware MTF agreement + opposition gate (no trade against 2-of-3 TF consensus)
- SELL volatility gate: block shorts in low/normal vol regimes (config sell_vol_regimes)
- Divergence: 40-bar lookback, price/indicator swings must align within ±2 bars
  (fired on 0.5% of trades before, 29% after), trending weight 2.0→1.0
- RSI regime_aware by default; transitioning regime only signals at extremes
- ADX ±DM tie no longer nudges bearish; TP2 clamped beyond TP1

Backtester realism:
- Charge $0.30 round-trip spread (--spread), gap-through SL/TP fills at bar open
- Resolve trades on RAW price path (cache stores raw bars, cleaning runs on load)
- Weekend/session filters use bar-close decision time to match live wall clock

Validated per-step on M15 2025-03-30→2026-05-31 under identical pricing:
+46.9R → +66.8R, win rate 69.9% → 73.0%, SELL side -2.3R → +9.6R.
Tested-and-reverted: ROC weight removal (-13R), BB fade suppression (-11.6R),
candlestick de-weight (-2R) — composite thresholds are co-tuned with weight mass.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-08 21:32:46 -04:00
harwinder 998f5e8616 Fix trade setup generation broken by TP tightening factor
The TP floor calculations used raw min_rr (0.4) but after 20% tightening
the effective RR dropped to ~0.32, failing the min_rr check and returning
None for all trade setups. Pre-compensate the floor with min_rr/tf so
post-tightening RR still meets the minimum.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-24 18:22:57 -04:00
harwinder a731b7c8df Tighten TP targets by 20% for faster hits (configurable tp_tightening_factor=0.8)
Applied uniformly across all 3 trade setup functions. Lowered min_rr_ratio
0.5→0.4 proportionally to preserve trade acceptance rate. SL unchanged.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-22 10:44:52 -04:00
Harwinder 643952a8e2 Enable M5 auto-scan alerts and remove live dashboard
M5 already broadcast through the shared _scan_timeframe path but was
documented as data-only (docstring, CLAUDE.md, DOCUMENTATION.md, plus a
phantom `if tf == M5: return` step that never existed in code). Align all
docs/comments so M5 alerting at C+ grade is the intended, documented behavior.

Remove the live dashboard entirely per request: the 30s refresh loop,
per-scan refresh, boot send, and the dashboard-only stats layer
(_signal_stats / _stats_updated / _update_signal_stats and its call sites,
_format_stats_dashboard and its helper constants). Drop now-unused ZoneInfo
import and dashboard mentions from help/autoscan/boot messages and the test
suite. The WebSocket level-breach monitor and level cache are untouched.

Tests: 136 passed, 0 failed.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-20 12:45:27 -04:00
harwinder b61818330b Fix weekend filter: use precise forex market hours (Fri 22:00–Sun 22:00 UTC)
The old `weekday() >= 5` check blocked all of Sunday, but the forex
market reopens Sunday 22:00 UTC (Sydney open). Now uses proper time-based
check so the bot fetches data and generates signals on Sunday evening.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-17 19:23:21 -04:00
harwinder 0e6f5d74a7 Add backtest scripts to version control
Track gpu_backtest.py, diagnose_filters.py, and instructions.
Data files (CSVs, parquet cache) remain gitignored.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-15 19:49:30 -04:00
harwinder c505829dfb Reduce A-grade TP when exhausted: RR 0.75→0.50 on 2+ exhaustion tags
A-grade trades entered exhausted moves with TP too far (0.75R), causing
57.7% WR and +0.25R over 30 days. Store exhaustion_count on SignalReport
and scale TP to B-level (1.0×) when A-grade has 2+ exhaustion tags.
Backtest: A-grade 73.1% WR / +3.25R, B/C unchanged.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-15 19:46:31 -04:00
harwinder 08742c5063 Align FilterConfig with XAU strategy: blocked hours [0,1,2], session 3-23 UTC, Mon-Fri
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-15 15:36:03 -04:00
harwinder 3f7d24734d Add M5 to Telegram scan buttons and Scan All TFs
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-15 15:26:00 -04:00
harwinder 5047601d46 Reduce blocked hours, enable M5 alerts, show NY time on dashboard
- Blocked hours reduced to 0-2 UTC only (daily rollover)
- M5 signals now broadcast to Telegram like M15/H1/H4
- Live dashboard shows New York time (auto EDT/EST via zoneinfo)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-15 15:23:48 -04:00
harwinder 8ed6454ea5 Refocus on XAU/USD: add momentum indicators, tune TP, exhaustion block
Strip EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY pairs and strategies from entire codebase.
Add 3 new scored indicators (ROC, Keltner/TTM Squeeze, ADX slope) and
enable MACD-as-pillar + divergence detection for early trend entry.
Introduce "transitioning" regime (ADX < 25, slope > 3.0) to catch trend
births before ADX confirms. Gold-specific composite weights per regime.

Tune TP multipliers: quality-tiered scaling (A+/A get 1.5-2.0x ATR via
XAU ATR method, B/C use swing-level targeting). Backtest: +24R total,
65% WR, PF 1.12 over 365 days.

Add momentum-confirmed exhaustion block: hard-reject trades when 2+
static exhaustion signals fire AND ROC/MACD confirm fading momentum.
Prevents late trend entries without killing strong trend trades.

Telegram: simplify buttons to timeframe-only labels, add "Scan All TFs"
multi-timeframe summary, add /scan command, fix BB/KC level breach keys,
fix price formatting (.2f for gold), fix deprecated asyncio call, fix
"1 pairs" grammar and 60s/30s dashboard refresh mismatch.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-15 10:51:51 -04:00
harwinder 98daf71a52 Add web dashboard (Redis + FastAPI + WebSocket), scope XAU penalties
Signal daemon (signal_web.py): candle-boundary scanner mirroring
telegram_bot.py, publishes serialized SignalReport JSON to Redis.
Web API (web/app.py): thin FastAPI reader behind Apache, serves
/api/signals REST + /ws WebSocket from Redis pub/sub.
Frontend (web/static/index.html): 3-pair grid, color-coded signals,
indicator breakdown per timeframe, trade setup display.

Also: XAU-specific penalty scoping in signal_aggregator (softer
confidence penalties for gold, original strict values for forex),
pair-aware session filter routing XAU to its own blocked hours.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-14 23:15:37 -04:00
harwinder 57769967d1 Fix news engine (keywords, calendar fallback, RSS URL), remove Telegram guards
News engine: expand sentiment keywords (18%→60% headline coverage), add
MyFXBook RSS as fallback calendar source when Forex Factory returns 429,
add retry/backoff on calendar API rate limits, update stale ForexLive URL
to investinglive.com, add date formats without seconds for MyFXBook RSS.

Telegram bot: remove flood control, rate limiter, and dashboard failure
tracking — all sends go directly through bot.send_message/edit_message_text.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-14 13:42:32 -04:00
harwinder bf9609708c Fix duplicate-index crash in data validation, add Telegram flood control
- Move index dedup before OHLC consistency fix in _validate_and_clean
  to prevent crash when df.loc[dup_idx] returns Series instead of scalar
- Add global flood backoff: detect RetryAfter, pause all sends/edits
  until ban expires instead of retrying and escalating the ban
- Stop dashboard edit-fail → new-message spam cascade: track consecutive
  failures, only resend after 3 failed edits
- Increase dashboard refresh from 5s to 30s, min send interval to 1.5s
- Add comprehensive QA test suite (140 tests across all 7 modules)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-14 13:04:28 -04:00
harwinder 235241f95a Harden Telegram bot, add EUR/GBP strategies, parallelize scans
Telegram reliability: rate-limited sends (1 msg/s), dashboard lock,
WebSocket JSON/price error handling, markdown escaping, level cache
TTL, cooldown cleanup, breach task tracking, graceful shutdown.

Telegram speed: parallelize 3-pair scans with asyncio.gather(),
increase thread pool 2→4, parallelize boot-up initial scan.

Strategy: add EUR/USD and GBP/USD pullback-buy strategies with
per-pair configs, optimize XAU TP to 0.9×ATR, block hours 8/9
for XAU and hour 17 for GBP.

Backtest: add --max-hours flag to evaluate.py for time-exit support.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-13 21:07:49 -04:00
Harwinder 1f3f69c21d Fix dashboard TF key mismatch, increase refresh to 5s
Timeframe keys stored as enum values (15min/1h/4h) but dashboard
looked for M15/1h/4h — GBP/USD showed no price or signal text.
Now uses Timeframe enum directly with display labels. Reduced
dashboard refresh from 60s to 5s with throttle guard.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-13 18:51:02 -04:00
Harwinder 439e179128 Add live dashboard with 60s auto-refresh, disable breakout alerts
Replace per-scan Telegram messages with a single dashboard message
that edits in-place every 60 seconds. Each pair shows all TFs
horizontally with short signal labels (Buy/Sell/Neutral). WebSocket
live prices feed into the dashboard. Level-breach alerts disabled
(WS still updates cache silently). Removed /stats command.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-13 18:34:44 -04:00
harwinder 6b1ffff66a Fix live session filter overriding XAU strategy signals
The general session filter ran after analyze_from_dataframes() and
wiped out XAU oversold bounce signals at most hours. Now skips the
session filter when the XAU strategy has already fired — the strategy
has its own backtested hour filter.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-13 17:31:46 -04:00
harwinder d63544b75d Add XAU/USD oversold-bounce strategy (79.7% WR, PF 2.06)
BUY-only strategy for gold: enters when M15 RSI drops below oversold
threshold while price remains above EMA200 on all three timeframes
(M15, H1, H4). Uses ATR-based TP/SL (0.7x/2.0x) sized from M15 ATR.
Isolated to XAU/USD only — other pairs completely unaffected.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-13 17:25:49 -04:00
harwinder 1e5047e20f Backtest tuning, data freshness guard, Telegram improvements
- Drop USD/JPY from scan pairs (zero signals across all timeframes)
- Disable divergence indicator (zero impact in 14-config lab test)
- Parallelize evaluate.py with ProcessPoolExecutor (16 cores)
- Add --pair CLI filter to evaluate.py for single-pair backtests
- Add data freshness guard: stale cache auto-invalidated, primary TF
  stale data suppresses signals to prevent trading on old data
- Add /cache command: shows fetch age and last bar per pair/TF
- Add /clearcache command: wipes in-memory cache for fresh API fetch
- Remove BB from WebSocket breach alerts (keep structural levels only)
- Show live prices only for WS-monitored pairs (EUR/USD, XAU/USD)
- Replace arrow emojis with text tags in indicator lines

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-12 22:56:55 -04:00
harwinder 6fe1a3e0f0 Add project documentation and MT5 integration plan
DOCUMENTATION.md: Two-section guide covering the full project —
plain-English trader guide (indicators, scoring, trade setups) and
developer reference (architecture, data flow, every threshold/weight).

mt5.md: Architecture plan for automated order execution via MT5 bridge
(REST API on Windows, async client on Linux, risk-based lot sizing).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-11 19:50:21 -04:00
harwinder 4db6121ca7 Fix trade setup generation, M5 data-only mode, WS symbol limits, command menu
- Trade setup TP now scales to SL distance ensuring min RR is met when
  no viable swing target exists; skip swing targets with poor RR
- Add float tolerance to RR gate to prevent edge-case rejection
- M5 auto-scan runs for level cache only, no Telegram broadcast
- WebSocket limited to EUR/USD + XAU/USD (Grow plan constraint)
- Register bot command menu via set_my_commands on startup

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-11 18:58:40 -04:00
harwinder 5e12307b1f Suppress Telegram messages when no actionable signals found
Auto-scan still runs and updates the level cache every cycle,
but only sends to Telegram when quality A+/A/B/C signals exist.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-11 18:03:49 -04:00
harwinder 4be7077c0a QA fixes: H4 timing bug, /status + /help commands, WS cold-start
- Fix H4 boundary calculation using total minutes (hour*60+min) not just minute
- Add /help command listing all bot commands
- Add /status command showing WS connection, live prices, level cache, cooldowns
- Run initial M15 scan on boot to populate level cache before WS starts
- Update /start message to mention new commands

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-11 17:16:07 -04:00
harwinder 736e33302b Tune engine from backtesting: wider SL, capped TP, counter-trend filter
Backtest-driven fixes (0% win → 33% win, PF 0.00 → 1.05 over 7 days):
- SL: swing buffer 0.5→1.0 ATR, min distance 1.0→1.5 ATR (more room to breathe)
- TP: cap swing targets at ATR×3.0, fallback ATR×2.0 (was targeting unreachable levels)
- Mature-move TP: when score>30 (A/B grade), tighten TP to ATR×1.5 (move already extended)
- Counter-trend penalty: -15 confidence when signal fights regime direction
- EMA200 penalties halved: -20→-10 (was killing EUR/USD signals)
- Score thresholds lowered: BUY/SELL ±15→±12, STRONG ±40→±35
- Quality grades relaxed, C-grade now gets trade setups and Telegram alerts
- min_rr_ratio: 1.5→1.2
- Gitignore backtest/ directory

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-11 17:00:12 -04:00
harwinder a7bed99caa Buy signal included 2026-05-11 16:37:45 -04:00
harwinder dc9c76a716 Pro tier upgrade: quant rearchitect + WebSocket level-breach monitor
- Restore XAU/USD (Pro plan), drop USD/CAD, raise rate limit to 55/min
- Reduce signal engine to 4 uncorrelated pillars (EMA, RSI, BB, Candlestick)
  with regime-adaptive weights (trending boosts EMA, ranging boosts RSI+BB)
- Add structure-based S/R (swing highs/lows) for trade setup targeting
- Fix confidence death spiral: all adjustments now additive, not multiplicative
- Dynamic R:R trade setup: SL behind swing level, TP at next structure level,
  reject if R:R < 1.5
- Fix news engine for all 4 pairs (was hardcoded to USDJPY)
- Add WebSocket monitor: streams live ticks, triggers M15 scan on level breach
  with 5-min cooldown per pair — catches breakouts between candle boundaries
- Add correlation filter (EUR/USD+GBP/USD, XAU/USD+USD/JPY exposure warnings)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-11 16:33:23 -04:00
harwinder a15dc40050 Replace XAU/USD with USD/CAD — TwelveData has no gold data
XAU/USD is not available in TwelveData's symbol list.
Swapped to USD/CAD across config, scan pairs, Telegram buttons,
and added CAD to tracked news currencies.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-11 15:50:48 -04:00
harwinder b3e0da7455 Add 4-pair candle-boundary auto-scanner (free tier safe)
Expand from 2 to 4 pairs (EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, XAU/USD) with
automatic scanning at M15 and H1 candle close boundaries. Scheduler
staggers H1 by 60s to stay within 8 credits/min; daily budget is
480 of 800 allowed. Cache TTL is now candle-duration-aware so cross-TF
confirmation data is reused without extra API calls. Spread estimate
uses primary-TF data instead of fetching M5 separately.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-11 15:30:11 -04:00
Harwinder 037dec643e Add EUR/USD support and 4-button Telegram scanner
Add EURUSD pair with dynamic pair info lookup. Telegram bot now shows
4 scan buttons: EUR/USD 15M, EUR/USD 1H, USD/JPY 15M, USD/JPY 1H.
Each indicator displays directional arrows in the message output.
Price formatting adapts per pair (5dp for EUR, 3dp for JPY).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-10 23:49:36 -04:00
Harwinder 3a09dfd62f Strip backtesting, rebalance indicator weights toward leading signals
Remove backtest.py, backtest_gpu.py, metrics.py, local CSV data,
Dukascopy loader, and all backtest CLI modes from main.py. Rebalance
engine weights: leading indicators (divergence, RSI, stochastic, BB)
now carry 66% of signal weight vs 34% for lagging (EMA, MACD). Add
ws_twelvedata.py for live tick streaming. Drop pyarrow and tqdm deps.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-10 23:40:15 -04:00
Harwinder 353ff05267 Add USAGE_LINUX.md — bot and CLI run instructions for Linux server
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-07 23:12:55 -04:00
Harwinder a596e7cab2 Add async Telegram bot — live scan button with trade setup
Introduces telegram_bot.py: python-telegram-bot v20+ async bot that
presents a persistent Scan Signal inline button. Each press fetches a
live USD/JPY signal via SignalAggregator and formats it with emoji,
MTF breakdown, top bull/bear reasons, and warnings. STRONG_BUY /
STRONG_SELL signals additionally render the full trade setup (entry,
SL, TP1, TP2, RR). Adds python-telegram-bot>=20.0 to requirements.txt.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-07 23:05:01 -04:00
Harwinder c72e8e669b Round-2 weight optimisation — reduce EMA trend, boost stochastic
GPU sweep (36 combos, RTX 4070 SUPER) on H4 2022-2026 relative to the
round-1 baseline revealed EMA trend was over-weighted at 3.6. Halving
it and nudging stochastic up yields cleaner, higher-quality signals.

Weight changes (backtest_gpu.py _BASE_W + engine.py):
  ema_trend:  3.6 -> 1.8  (over-weighted; halving tightens signal filter)
  stochastic: 1.6 -> 2.4  (x1.5; improved WR to 40.4% in sweep)
  macd:       3.3          (unchanged — dominant signal, kept as anchor)
  adx/ichimoku/rsi/bollinger: unchanged

Combined result vs round-1 (H4 local data 2022-2026):
  Trades:      160 -> 73   (-87 — filters out marginal setups)
  Win Rate:   38.1% -> 43.8%  (+5.7pp)
  Profit Factor: 1.19 -> 1.52
  Return:    +21.30% -> +23.86%  (+2.57pp)
  Max DD:     -8.52% -> -9.32%
  Sharpe:      0.47  ->  0.71   (+51%)
  Sortino:     1.91  ->  3.06   (+60%)

Fewer trades at much higher quality. The lower EMA weight means only
strong, multi-indicator confluences clear the grade threshold — the
73 remaining trades have 43.8% WR vs 38.1% and expectancy nearly 3x.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-07 22:24:48 -04:00
Harwinder 3d9f4dc201 Enable GPU scoring via CuPy — RTX 4070 SUPER confirmed 6.3x speedup
Install nvidia pip packages for CUDA 12 runtime DLLs (no full toolkit needed):
  nvidia-cuda-nvrtc-cu12, nvidia-cuda-runtime-cu12,
  nvidia-curand-cu12, nvidia-cublas-cu12

Add _register_nvidia_dlls() in backtest_gpu.py that auto-discovers and
registers nvidia package DLL directories (site-packages/nvidia/*/bin/)
via os.add_dll_directory() before CuPy is imported. Suppresses the
spurious "CUDA path could not be detected" warning from cupy._environment.

Backend line now reads: CuPy 14.0.1 (RTX GPU)
Benchmark: scoring pass on 100k bars — NumPy 1.1ms vs CuPy 0.18ms = 6.3x.
Results are identical to CPU path (deterministic).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-07 22:22:21 -04:00
Harwinder e30535f5e9 GPU backtester, optimised weights, local CSV data pipeline
## What changed

### backtest_gpu.py (new — ~1,300 lines)
Standalone GPU-accelerated backtester completely separate from backtest.py.
Computes all indicator series in one vectorised O(N) pass over the full price
history, then replays positions with a sequential state machine.

Key design:
- VectorIndicators: pandas ewm/rolling (C-optimised) for all 7 indicators
- CuPy GPU backend with automatic NumPy fallback (no hard dependency)
- Two-phase API: prepare_arrays() once, score_and_run() many times
- --optimize flag: 36-combo weight sweep (1 baseline + 7 ablations + 28
  multiplier runs) — calls prepare_arrays() once, replays all combos in seconds
- Full CLI: --tf, --local, --start/--end, --regime-filter, --regime-tf,
  --session-filter, --optimize, --journal, --journal-csv

O(N) vs O(N^2): backtest.py recomputes all indicators per bar (O(N^2));
backtest_gpu.py computes each indicator series once and reads bar T in O(1).
On 100,000 H1 bars: ~4 seconds vs >10 minutes.

### data_provider.py
Added load_local_csv() method — reads MetaTrader tab-delimited CSV exports
from market_data/ directory. Format: Time|Open|High|Low|Close|Volume|Spread
(spread column dropped on load, timestamps localised to UTC). Applies the same
_validate_and_clean() pipeline as the Twelve Data path. LOCAL_CSV_MAP maps
each Timeframe enum to its filename.

market_data/ files added (MetaTrader exports, UTC):
  USDJPY_M15.csv  100,000 bars  2022-05-04 to 2026-05-08
  USDJPY_H1.csv   100,000 bars  2010-04-23 to 2026-05-08
  USDJPY_H4.csv    25,855 bars  2010-04-22 to 2026-05-08
  USDJPY_D1.csv     5,020 bars  2010-04-22 to 2026-05-08

16 years of H1/H4/D1 vs ~6 weeks of H1 on Twelve Data free plan. Use --local
for all backtests; Twelve Data reserved for live signal feed.

### engine.py — optimised indicator weights
36-combo sweep on H4 2022-2026 found MACD and EMA trend are the dominant
signals; RSI and Bollinger are net drag on this trending pair.

Old → new weights:
  ema_trend:  1.2 → 3.6  (×3 — strongest directional signal)
  macd:       1.1 → 3.3  (×3 — ablating it is the single worst move: -42%)
  stochastic: 0.8 → 1.6  (×2 — clean timing, 40% WR at this level)
  adx:        1.0 → 0.5  (÷2 — partially redundant with EMA stack)
  ichimoku:   1.1 → 0.55 (÷2 — lags too much at H4, hurts in ranging)
  rsi:        0.3 → 0.0  (ablated — net drag across all test windows)
  bollinger:  0.9 → 0.0  (ablated — counter-trend noise on trending pair)

RSI and Bollinger are still computed and displayed in live output for
reference; weight=0 means they contribute nothing to the composite score.

Combined result vs baseline (H4 2022-2026, local data):
  Return:   +7.12% → +21.30%  (+14.2pp)
  Max DD:   -9.05% → -8.52%   (tighter — gains did not come at expense of risk)
  Sharpe:    0.23  →  0.47    (2x improvement)
  Sortino:   1.38  →  1.91
  Win Rate: 36.3%  → 38.1%

### backtest.py
Added 16-thread CPU parallelism for signal pre-computation via
ThreadPoolExecutor. _precompute_all_signals() dispatches each bar to a worker;
pandas/NumPy C extensions release the GIL enabling true parallel execution.
Results are collected and replayed in the main loop, replacing the per-bar
recompute. Also added --regime-tf CLI flag so regime filter timeframe can be
specified independently of the primary TF.

### signal_aggregator.py
EMA200 distance gate: confidence *= 0.55 when price is within 0.5% of EMA200
(chop zone) or beyond 1.5% (overextended). Sweet spot is 0.5-1.5% from EMA200
where trending momentum is cleanest. Strongest single filter found: lifted
cumulative return +13.88% to +35.50% in ablation window.

### ENGINE_LOGIC.md (new)
Full reference document covering: architecture, data pipeline, all indicator
logic, composite scoring formula, optimised weights with rationale, regime
classification, EMA200 gate, MTF alignment, grade system, backtesting results,
filter catalogue, and configuration reference.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-07 22:12:43 -04:00
Harwinder a687db9413 Add EMA200 distance gate — strongest single signal-quality filter
Across 2024 trend / 2023 chop / 2026 hostile windows, distance from the
H1 EMA200 was empirically the most discriminative variable. Sweet spot
0.5-1.5% from EMA200; closer = false-breakout chop, farther = chase.

Outside the band, confidence is multiplied by 0.55 so the trade falls
below the B-grade threshold and is rejected.

Cumulative return across the 3 windows: +13.88% baseline -> +35.50%.
Win rate improved in every regime; 2023 chop turned positive (-2.56% to
+14.94%).

Also extends the trade journal with per-timeframe MTF scores, RSI at
entry, and EMA200 distance for future filter mining; surfaces ema_trend
in key_levels so the gate can read it.
2026-05-07 19:28:19 -04:00
Harwinder b7d03a9b61 Document session filter and auto-toggle flags in USAGE
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-07 18:44:41 -04:00
Harwinder b38ed17c96 Add session filter + auto-toggle, extend trade journal diagnostics
Session filter restricts trades to a UTC hour window (default 07-16,
London + NY) — opt-in via --session-filter, with --session-start /
--session-end overrides. Wired into both the backtester (cheap hour
check next to the regime gate) and live mode (downgrades signal to
NEUTRAL/F when current UTC hour is outside the window).

Auto-toggle (--auto-session-filter) tracks rolling mean pnl_pct over
the last N closed trades; when it falls below threshold, the session
filter activates, releasing once expectancy recovers. Default lookback
10 trades, threshold -0.3%.

Trade dataclass extended with diagnostic fields captured at entry:
entry_hour, entry_dow, ADX, ATR%, market_regime, volatility_regime,
mtf_agreement. These let --journal-csv exports surface loss-pattern
clusters when a window underperforms.

Validated on 2024 trend / 2023 chop / 2026 recent windows. Auto-toggle
preserves ~50% of trend edge while still cutting ~25% of recent-regime
losses — pure regime filter is still best on cumulative, so both
session flags ship default-off.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-07 18:38:49 -04:00
Harwinder dcd98fffa2 Swap raw requests for Twelve Data Python SDK
data_provider now uses TDClient.time_series().as_pandas() instead of
hand-rolled REST calls. Throttle, validation, and parquet caching are
unchanged. Adds twelvedata>=1.2.0 to requirements.txt.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-07 18:38:38 -04:00
Harwinder 70990532a3 Compact hierarchical live signal output
Restructure print_signal_report so decision (signal · grade · score ·
confidence · MTF) sits at the top, followed by trade setup, context line,
MTF breakdown, top supporting/opposing reasons in two columns, warnings,
and an optional detail block under --detail. Adds _compact_reason helper
that strips known indicator name prefixes via _INDICATOR_PREFIXES so
reason lines stay short.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-07 17:53:50 -04:00
Harwinder 53e6e07829 Wire regime filter into live mode
--regime-filter previously affected only backtests. Live mode now also
checks higher-TF ADX after analysis: signals are downgraded to NEUTRAL
with a warning when ADX < threshold, and confirming when above.

This brings live behavior into parity with what the backtester measures.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-07 17:40:39 -04:00
Harwinder 7699e6dd1d Add indicator ablation framework + apply ablation-driven cleanup
Framework:
- TechnicalConfig.disabled_indicators skips named indicators in engine.analyze
- Optimizer supports disable_indicator override for parallel ablation sweeps
- main.py --ablate runs leave-one-out across all 10 directional indicators

Cleanup applied (validated across 2024 trend / 2023 chop / 2026 recent):
- Drop pivot by default (cumulative +9.5% to disable)
- Drop candlestick by default (+3.4% cumulative)
- Regime-gate ichimoku: 1.3x in trending, 0.2x in ranging (was a chop villain)
- Trim RSI weight 1.0 -> 0.3 (cumulative noise across regimes)

Result: +10.60% on 2024 trend (+33.24% -> +43.84%, Sharpe 2.17 -> 2.77),
+15.71% on 2023 chop (-18.27% -> -2.56%). Recent regime still adverse.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-07 17:33:07 -04:00
Harwinder 636f0304ae Refocus on USD/JPY and add walk-forward backtester with regime filter
- Strip multi-pair plumbing; drop synthetic-data fallback
- Add BacktestConfig + walk-forward replay through the live signal pipeline
- Add metrics module (PF, Sharpe, Sortino, max DD, trade journal)
- Add parallel grid optimizer with disk parquet cache
- Add H4 ADX regime gate (--regime-filter, --regime-min-adx) — cuts chop
  losses ~84% in 2023 H1 while preserving trend edge

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-07 17:15:41 -04:00
Harwinder 6ebdc34cd3 Remove redundant script.txt and tracked __pycache__
script.txt was superseded by requirements.txt. Python bytecode should
not be version-controlled — added .gitignore to keep cache and venv
out of the repo going forward.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-06 22:25:43 -04:00
Harwinder bc1844b233 Add requirements.txt and usage guide
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-04 10:51:03 -04:00
37 changed files with 359 additions and 9273 deletions
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@@ -35,5 +35,3 @@ backtest/trailgrid5m/
backtest/__pycache__/
.env.*
logs/
backtest/research/commit_ladder_2026-08/
backtest/research/llm_news_eval_2026-08/
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@@ -11,13 +11,10 @@ Every numeric threshold in `config.py` and `pair_signals/xauusd.py` was backtest
## Commands
```bash
python test_all.py # QA suite: 374 tests, 23 modules, no network (mocked)
python main.py --pair XAUUSD --timeframe H1 --detail # CLI signal report (--json for full dump,
# --panel to run the advisory LLM agent panel on-demand)
python test_all.py # QA suite: 266 tests, 18 modules, no network (mocked)
python main.py --pair XAUUSD --timeframe H1 --detail # CLI signal report (--json for full dump)
python telegram_bot.py # the bot (refuses to boot without credentials)
python oanda_daemon.py # auto-execution daemon on Oanda practice account
python dashboard_publisher.py --once # web dashboard: one scan+publish cycle to $DASHBOARD_OUT_DIR
# (omit --once for the candle-close daemon; deploy/README-dashboard.md)
# Backtests
python backtest/gpu_backtest.py --pair XAUUSD --days 365
@@ -25,25 +22,22 @@ python backtest/gpu_backtest.py --pair XAUUSD --start 2025-01-01 --end 2025-06-0
--primary-tf 15min --confirm-tfs 1h,4h
# key flags: --spread --quality A+,A,B,C --strategies --workers --max-hold-bars
# --warmup-bars --cooldown-bars --no-cache --export-csv out.csv --detail
# --fixed-rr-tp N (research-only: hard TP at N×risk, trail off; verdict
# 2026-08-05: NOT shipped — backtest/research/fixedtp_2026-08-05.md)
```
**`test_all.py` is NOT pytest** — it uses a custom `@test("name")` decorator that runs each test immediately at import; don't grep for `def test_` or try `pytest test_all.py`. Run the whole file; it prints per-module results and exits non-zero on failure. There is no way to run a single test short of commenting modules out. Tests must stay green; every new gate/knob needs tests. When patching weekend logic in tests, patch `providers.base._is_forex_weekend` — but know there are THREE independent weekend implementations (`providers/base.py`, `signal_aggregator.py`, and an inline copy in `backtest/gpu_backtest.py:_is_xau_blocked_by_calendar`); patching the provider one does not reach the other two.
**`test_all.py` is NOT pytest** — it uses a custom `@test("name")` decorator that runs each test immediately at import; don't grep for `def test_` or try `pytest test_all.py`. Run the whole file; it prints per-module results and exits non-zero on failure. There is no way to run a single test short of commenting modules out. Tests must stay green; every new gate/knob needs tests. When patching weekend logic in tests, patch `providers.base._is_forex_weekend`.
Python 3.12; a `venv/` exists in-repo. Dependencies in `requirements.txt` (numpy, pandas, requests, twelvedata, python-telegram-bot ≥20, websockets).
## Configuration & credentials
Precedence for every credential/deployment setting: **env var → config.json → refuse to run** (no hardcoded fallbacks). A gitignored repo-root `.env` is loaded at `app_config` import via `os.environ.setdefault`. `config.json` (gitignored; schema in `config.json.example`) holds secrets plus deployment settings: `data_providers.active` (the live-feed switch), `data_providers.streaming` (optional tick-stream provider for the level-breach monitor), `scanning.pairs`/`timeframes`, per-pair `blocked_hours_utc`, `log_level`. Key env vars: `TELEGRAM_TOKEN`, `TELEGRAM_CHAT_ID`, `TELEGRAM_CHANNEL_ID`, `TWELVE_DATA_API_KEY`, `TIINGO_API_KEY`, `OANDA_ACCOUNT_ID`/`OANDA_API_TOKEN`/`OANDA_BASE_URL`, `DEEPSEEK_API_KEY` (news LLM; the `deepseek` config.json block holds model/enabled/timeout/daily cap). The `agent_panel` config.json block (all-defaults = feature dark) controls the advisory LLM agent panel: `enabled`, per-surface `telegram`/`dashboard` toggles, `min_quality`, `max_panels_per_day`, `reuse_ttl_seconds`.
Precedence for every credential/deployment setting: **env var → config.json → refuse to run** (no hardcoded fallbacks). A gitignored repo-root `.env` is loaded at `app_config` import via `os.environ.setdefault`. `config.json` (gitignored; schema in `config.json.example`) holds secrets plus deployment settings: `data_providers.active` (the live-feed switch), `scanning.pairs`/`timeframes`, per-pair `blocked_hours_utc`, `log_level`. Key env vars: `TELEGRAM_TOKEN`, `TELEGRAM_CHAT_ID`, `TELEGRAM_CHANNEL_ID`, `TWELVE_DATA_API_KEY`, `TIINGO_API_KEY`, `OANDA_ACCOUNT_ID`/`OANDA_API_TOKEN`/`OANDA_BASE_URL`.
## Architecture
### End-to-end pipeline (every scan)
```
providers/<active>.fetch_ohlcv() per TF: single-flight fetch, drop forming candle, validate/clean, cache
(only Twelve Data rate-throttles; Oanda has no client throttle)
providers/<active>.fetch_ohlcv() per TF: throttle, fetch, drop forming candle, validate/clean, cache
→ engine.TechnicalEngine.analyze() per TF: 9 scored indicators + ATR context → regime → composite score
→ signal_aggregator.analyze_pair() live entry point (weekend/day filters, fetch, staleness)
└─ analyze_from_dataframes() replayable core: MTF agreement → news → bonuses/penalties →
@@ -55,15 +49,13 @@ Signal currency everywhere is `SignalStrength` (−2..+2). DataFrames are UTC tz
### Layers
- **`providers/`** — one class per provider subclassing `BaseDataProvider` (`providers/base.py`), which owns everything the pipeline depends on: TTL+boundary cache, forming-candle drop, freshness check, validate/clean, paginated `fetch_range` (feeds the backtester from any provider), optional tick streaming. Subclasses implement only `_fetch_raw` + symbol/interval maps. Registry + `make_data_provider(config, name=None)` in `providers/__init__.py`; config.json `data_providers.active` selects the live candle feed and the optional `data_providers.streaming` scalar selects a different provider for the tick stream. A test enforces that subclasses don't override shared base methods (`supports_streaming`/`iter_ticks` are the sanctioned streaming override points). Tiingo streams mid-price ticks (`wss://api.tiingo.com/fx`) — do not re-add spread display from its free FX feed (two-tier indicative quotes, removed 2026-07-23); the no-spread rule extends to the WS stream.
- **`providers/`** — one class per provider subclassing `BaseDataProvider` (`providers/base.py`), which owns everything the pipeline depends on: TTL+boundary cache, forming-candle drop, freshness check, validate/clean, paginated `fetch_range` (feeds the backtester from any provider), optional tick streaming. Subclasses implement only `_fetch_raw` + symbol/interval maps. Registry + `make_data_provider` in `providers/__init__.py`; config.json `data_providers.active` selects the live feed. A test enforces that subclasses don't override shared base methods. Tiingo is candles-only — do not re-add spread display from its free FX feed (two-tier indicative quotes, removed 2026-07-23).
- **`engine.py`** — `TechnicalEngine`: 9 scored indicators (ema_trend, rsi, macd, bollinger, adx, roc, keltner, divergence, candlestick) + ATR as context. Regime classification (trending_up/down, `trending` = mixed/direction-UNKNOWN, transitioning, ranging) drives per-indicator weight multipliers and regime-aware RSI reinterpretation. Compute order matters (ATR first; MACD always computed even when not a pillar — divergence needs the histogram). Private series ride on the result as `_underscore` attrs; scorers/formatters skip anything `_`-prefixed or weight-0.
- **`signal_aggregator.py`** — MTF agreement, diminishing-decay penalty system, exhaustion hard block, quality grading, then an ordered chain of post-grade gates (session, XAU SELL quality/vol/hour, regime blocks, M5 noise gates), then three setup generators: XAU ATR (A+/A), generic swing-based, plus the M5 pullback (`XAU_PB`) and chart-pattern (`XAU_CP`, `chart_patterns.py`) entry paths. The PB/CP generators run AFTER the gate chain and force quality to "B"; the CP path deliberately accepts grade-F composites and re-checks only session/day/big-candle (via warning prefixes) plus its own SELL/vol/RSI gates — it does NOT re-check exhaustion or the M5 min-score/MTF gates. **This is validated behavior, not a bug** (2026-08-04 audit: 226/586 trades in the shipped M5 12mo book are XAU_CP, +38.9R, 104 of them exhaustion-flagged and net-positive) — changing it is a rule-1 revalidation event. `TradeSetup.strategy` selects trailing params; trail params are stamped on the setup from the *producing* config so per-TF overrides reach formatters.
- **`signal_aggregator.py`** — MTF agreement, diminishing-decay penalty system, exhaustion hard block, quality grading, then an ordered chain of post-grade gates (session, XAU SELL quality/vol/hour, regime blocks, M5 noise gates), then three setup generators: XAU ATR (A+/A), generic swing-based, plus the M5 pullback (`XAU_PB`) and chart-pattern (`XAU_CP`, `chart_patterns.py`) entry paths. `TradeSetup.strategy` selects trailing params; trail params are stamped on the setup from the *producing* config so per-TF overrides reach formatters.
- **`pair_signals/`** — per-pair config factories. **Always use the factory (`produce_signal` / `make_config`), never bare `PlatformConfig()`** — the factory applies the config.json overlay first, then the validated per-TF deltas (M5 hour-9 block, M15 trail arm 0.70, M15 SELL-hour block, etc.; evidence in the docstring). A test enforces factory ≡ inline-config equivalence. Confirmation map: M5→[M15,H1], M15→[M5,H1], H1→[M15,H4], H4→[H1,D1].
- **`news_engine.py`** — Forex Factory calendar (MyFXBook RSS fallback) + RSS keyword sentiment with gold-inverse keywords. Class-level caches (fresh engine per scan). Optional DeepSeek enrichment via `llm_client.py` (requests-only, no SDK): batched headline sentiment overriding keyword scores, gold-direction on release surprises, and a market-summary blurb (`SignalReport.news_summary`) — **display/warning-only, keyword fallback on any failure, inert without a key**; prompts are static module constants (DeepSeek prefix-cache pricing) and requests send `thinking: disabled` (V4-Flash reasoning otherwise blows the timeout). By XAU-tuned default, event risk and sentiment **warn but do not gate signals** (`event_risk_caps_signals=False`, `sentiment_affects_signals=False`) — the LLM does not change that.
- **`agent_panel.py`** — ai-hedge-fund-style advisory panel: 4 DeepSeek persona calls (macro/technical/risk/contrarian, concurrent on a panel-private pool) + 1 synthesizer producing an **ADVISORY-ONLY** consensus (`AGREE/NEUTRAL/OPPOSE` + confidence + rationale) written onto `SignalReport.panel_*` fields. Attached **post-hoc** by consumers (`telegram_bot` alert path, `main --panel`, `dashboard_publisher`) — never runs inside `analyze_from_dataframes` (backtest parity, test-locked) and no gate reads its fields. Static prompts (prefix caching); spend bounded by an exact per-bar cache, a reuse TTL keyed (symbol, TF, direction) so persisting signals don't re-spend every bar, and a `max_panels_per_day` UTC budget (default 20 ≈ ≤100 requests) on top of the shared 500/day client cap. `<2` valid persona takes skips the synthesizer; any failure degrades to no panel, never a changed signal.
- **`telegram_bot.py`** — owner-locked bot + subscriber channel; candle-boundary auto-scan loops (M5/M15/H1/H4, boundary+10 s), alert quality threshold + fingerprint dedup (committed only after a successful send), 📰 LLM market-context line on alerts when available, WebSocket level-breach monitor fed by the streaming provider (`data_providers.streaming`, falling back to the active provider; auto-disabled when the resolved provider can't stream or has no API key — Oanda does not stream, Tiingo does). Rotating log: `logs/telegram.log`, 3-h rotation × 240 backups.
- **`oanda_daemon.py` / `oanda_executor.py`** — practice-account auto-execution. Book-parity rules (see daemon docstring): no broker-side TP (trailing model — TP1/TP2 advisory), 5-bar per-TF cooldown (wall-clock approximation, so it expires over weekends where the backtester would still count bars), trail ratchets at bar close once per *observed* bar (a missed/failed cycle skips those bars entirely — the intra-gap high/low never enters the peak). Accepted divergence: one position total; orders send `positionFill=OPEN_ONLY` so a state/broker divergence cancels the order instead of silently netting. State/broker re-sync runs at boot and after any suspicious fill (`_reconcile_positions`).
- **`dashboard_publisher.py` / `static/dashboard.html`** — web dashboard as a **static publisher** (live LAMP server): standalone daemon scans at candle closes via `produce_signal` and atomically writes `snapshot.json`/`news.json`/`dashboard.html` to `$DASHBOARD_OUT_DIR` (Apache serves them; page is public by owner decision). **Hard independence rule: never imports, and is never imported by, `telegram_bot`/`oanda_daemon`** — confirmation map and boundary math are deliberate local copies, so a web-side failure can only mean a stale page. Due-TF classification uses the RAW wake time (flooring wake−buffer skips every H1/H4 scan — 2026-08-02 bug). News panel reads `NewsEngine.get_fundamental_context()` plus the additive `get_week_events()` accessor (display-only; no signal path calls it); as a separate process it has its own news caches and DeepSeek daily cap. News/calendar rows are clickable (detail dialog); headlines carry `id` = sha1(headline) in news.json, and exactly one on-demand endpoint exists: `static/news_summary.php` (installed by `install_static`), which serves a DeepSeek gold-impact summary per headline — whitelist-gated against news.json ids, cache-forever in `ai/`, own fail-closed daily cap (150/day, file-based, separate from the publisher's), key at `/etc/gold-dashboard/deepseek.key`, never reads repo config. Deployment checklist: `deploy/README-dashboard.md`.
- **`news_engine.py`** — Forex Factory calendar (MyFXBook RSS fallback) + RSS keyword sentiment with gold-inverse keywords. Class-level caches (fresh engine per scan). By XAU-tuned default, event risk and sentiment **warn but do not gate signals** (`event_risk_caps_signals=False`, `sentiment_affects_signals=False`).
- **`telegram_bot.py`** — owner-locked bot + subscriber channel; candle-boundary auto-scan loops (M5/M15/H1/H4, boundary+10 s), alert quality threshold + fingerprint dedup (committed only after a successful send), WebSocket level-breach monitor (auto-disabled when the active provider has `supports_streaming=False` — Oanda does not stream). Rotating log: `logs/telegram.log`, 3-h rotation × 240 backups.
- **`oanda_daemon.py` / `oanda_executor.py`** — practice-account auto-execution. Book-parity rules (see daemon docstring): no broker-side TP (trailing model — TP1/TP2 advisory), 5-bar per-TF cooldown, trail ratchets at bar close exactly once per bar. Accepted divergence: one position total.
- **`backtest/gpu_backtest.py`** — bar-by-bar replay through the real `analyze_from_dataframes` (news off). Realism model (do not regress): next-bar-open entries re-anchored to the raw price path, round-trip `--spread` charged per trade, trade resolution on RAW bars (cleaning applies only to signal-side data), same-bar SL+TP tie → SL first, gap fills at bar open, trail ratchet at bar close only. Indicators are precomputed once per TF (CuPy GPU or NumPy fallback — check the `Backend:` log line); replay fans out over worker processes and the 5-bar cooldown is applied in an ordered pass afterwards, so parallel and sequential books are identical. Parquet cache in `backtest/cache/` keyed by provider/symbol/TF/window. `backtest/*.csv` are gitignored pinned trade books from past campaigns — used for manual before/after comparison. `backtest/instructions_for_backtest.txt` lists what every backtest report must record.
## Rules for making changes (read before editing signal logic)
@@ -78,13 +70,6 @@ Signal currency everywhere is `SignalStrength` (−2..+2). DataFrames are UTC tz
8. Don't add config fields nothing reads; don't disable indicators in production paths (`disabled_indicators` is for experiments only).
9. EUR/USD was removed 2026-07-16 after a no-edge verdict (cost-to-volatility; last commit with EUR support: `7d3fd95`). Do not re-add without new data. BTC/ETH work lives on unmerged branches only.
## 2026-08-04 QA audit — owner decisions ledger
- **Weekend calendar: FIXED (owner-approved 2026-08-04).** All three `_is_forex_weekend` copies are NY-anchored (Fri 17:00 → Sun 18:00 ET; during US DST that is Fri 21:00 UTC — measured on 5yr of Oanda bars). Kills the weekly false-"STALE DATA/feed lagging" hours. Book impact, fully accounted: M15 byte-identical; M5 12mo dropped exactly ONE trade — a phantom whose signal fired on the final summer-Friday bar (close 21:00 UTC) and "filled" at Sunday's reopen 49 h later (−1.08R, live-impossible). M5 12mo reference at HEAD: 555 trades, +98.64R PF≈1.50 @ $0.65 (was 556/+97.56/1.48). A Module 21 test sweeps all three copies hourly across both DST transitions.
- **Spread in exit-trigger detection (rule 6): owner DECLINED 2026-08-04.** Backtest stop triggers stay on raw mid High/Low; the measured optimism (~4–6% of total R: −3.55R @ $0.30, −4.24R @ $0.65 on the M15 12mo book) is accepted and books stay comparable. Re-open only as a conscious re-pin campaign.
- **`FB2_EMA_LO`: HARDENED 2026-08-04 (delegated).** Research override for the EMA200-proximity band, default = tuned 0.5; an unparseable value now degrades to the default with a warning instead of crashing every scan. Documented here — it is a knob that exists.
- **H4 seeding divergence: parked.** Live H4 fetches only 380 bars vs the backtest's unbounded history — ~2% of sampled H4 bars flip an indicator signal (composite Δ up to 12.3). M5/M15/H1 clean at their real fetch depths. Fold into any future H4 campaign; H4 remains "unproven for auto-execution".
## Current state notes (2026-07-30)
- Oanda v20 is the live feed (`data_providers.active: "oanda"`), but the pinned backtest books are still Twelve-Data-pinned and the backtest cost assumption is $0.30 while measured real spreads are ~$0.65–0.72 — re-pin books on Oanda bars before treating feed-switch comparisons as valid (see Oanda/TD divergence study in memory).
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# Full Migration to Oanda v20 as Market-Data Source — Roadmap
**Status: partially executed (updated 2026-08-03).** Phases 1–2 shipped 2026-07-28 via the `providers/` package refactor and the live feed switched to Oanda (`data_providers.active: "oanda"`). Phases 3–6 remain unbuilt: the level-breach stream monitor is simply disabled for Oanda, and the pinned backtest books are still Twelve-Data-pinned at the $0.30 cost assumption. Owner decision 2026-07-24 stands: Twelve Data is a **permanent fallback** (no removal phase).
## Context
The daemon already executes trades on an Oanda practice account, and since 2026-07-28 the signal feed (Telegram bot, CLI, backtester) also runs on Oanda. Oanda's API is free with no metering (120 req/s vs TD's 55 credits/min), serves real bid/ask spreads, and matches the actual trading calendar. The 2026-07-24 divergence study (`backtest/research/oanda_td_divergence.py`) proved the switch is **not plumbing-only**: steady-state bars differ by median $0.69 (11% of M15 ATR), bar direction agrees only 89.9%, TD prints ~4,000 phantom Saturday bars/yr + 21:00 UTC rollover bars that contaminate Monday indicator windows, and Oanda's real spread (~$0.72 liquid / $0.84 rollover) is ~2.4× the $0.30 the validated books assume. So the migration = plumbing (Phases 1–3, inert) + shadow evidence (4) + book re-validation with owner gates (5) + reversible cutover (6). CLAUDE.md rules 1 (no tuned-value change without re-validation) and 4 (live == backtest parity) govern throughout.
**Master sequencing rule:** Phases 1–3 land inert behind `data_providers.active == "twelve_data"`. Nothing changes live behavior until the Phase 6 config flip, which stays reversible forever (TD is a permanent fallback).
## Phase 1 — Provider plumbing (inert)
Files: `oanda_provider.py`, `data_provider.py`, `config.py`, `config.json.example`.
1. **Constructor self-resolution**: `OandaDataProvider.__init__(config, api_token=None, base_url=None)` — defaults resolve via existing `app_config.oanda_api_token()` / `oanda_base_url()`; explicit args keep `oanda_daemon.py:180` working. Fail lazily at first fetch (mirror ForexDataProvider's `_td is None` pattern) so credential-less construction doesn't break the hermetic test header.
2. **Registry**: add `"oanda": OandaDataProvider` to `PROVIDER_REGISTRY` (`data_provider.py:392`); import at bottom of `data_provider.py` (one-direction edge, no cycle — `oanda_provider` must never import from `data_provider`). Add `PROVIDER_NAME` class attr to both providers. Cutover config needs an `"oanda": {}` block under `data_providers` (creds stay in the existing top-level `oanda` section / env).
3. **Dedupe shared constants**: move `CANDLE_SECONDS` / `BARS_PER_DAY` to `config.py`, alias as class attrs in both providers — all existing call sites (`signal_aggregator.py:18,217,640,942`, `telegram_bot.py:1062`, `gpu_backtest.py:975,1706`, tests) keep working unchanged. Also move `_is_forex_weekend` to `config.py` eventually (currently duplicated + sync-tested).
4. **`_fetch_window(symbol, tf, start, end)`** on both providers — the backtester's common interface. Contract: raw closed bars labeled in [start, end], oldest-first, capitalized OHLCV, UTC index; empty DataFrame (not exception) for empty windows; caller keeps windows ≤ ~4500 bars. TD: thin wrapper over existing `_fetch_twelve_data(start_date=, end_date=)` (keep its exception behavior byte-identical). Oanda: new `from`/`to` RFC3339 request (`price=MBA, dailyAlignment=0, alignmentTimezone=Etc/UTC`); refactor `_fetch_oanda_candles`'s parsing body (complete-filter, mid extraction, spread cache) into a shared `_parse_candles()`. The from+count quirk (Oanda's `count` includes the boundary bar; see `backtest/research/fetch_oanda_m15.py`) does not apply to from/to windows. Add a no-op-by-construction `_drop_forming_candle` to OandaDataProvider (`gpu_backtest.py:1025` calls it unconditionally). No throttle needed for Oanda.
5. **Tests (extend Module 15)**: registry selection; constructor self-resolution + explicit-args-win; `_fetch_window` both providers (mock `_session.get` / `_fetch_twelve_data`); CANDLE_SECONDS/BARS_PER_DAY cross-provider sync; provider-contract hasattr test covering everything callers reach for (`fetch_ohlcv, get_pair_info, clear_cache, _is_data_fresh, _has_latest_closed_bar, _validate_and_clean, _drop_forming_candle, _fetch_window, CANDLE_SECONDS, BARS_PER_DAY, _cache, _cache_timestamps, PROVIDER_NAME`); port Module 11's two cache/boundary tests (`test_all.py:2278,2313`) to Oanda variants patching `_fetch_oanda_candles`. Tests that swap `set_app_config` must restore `_TEST_APP` in `finally`.
## Phase 2 — Backtester provider-agnosticism
File: `backtest/gpu_backtest.py` (`fetch_history`, lines 943–1036).
1. Line 984: `provider._fetch_twelve_data(...)` → `provider._fetch_window(...)`. Keep the backward-stepping chunk loop, `empty_streak` bail, cursor stepping byte-identical (rule 6 — this loop produced every pinned cache).
2. Lines 975/1706: `ForexDataProvider.BARS_PER_DAY` → `provider.BARS_PER_DAY`.
3. **Provider-namespaced cache keys** in `_cache_path` (line 938): TD keeps legacy names (pinned parquets stay loadable, needed for A/B), Oanda gets `oanda_` prefix (`oanda_XAU_USD_15min_....parquet`) — no collisions. Comment the asymmetry.
4. `clean=True/False` raw-path semantics untouched.
5. **Verification before merge**: one M15 12-month TD replay pre/post commit — trade books must be identical. **Alignment audit**: fetch one month of Oanda H4 + D1 via `_fetch_window`, assert label sets match TD's cached labels (H4 at 00/04/08 UTC, D1 at 00:00 UTC) — a mismatch would silently shift every MTF confirmation.
6. Tests: `fetch_history` dispatch with a stub provider (concat/dedupe/trim, clean=False skips cleaning); `_cache_path` namespacing regression.
## Phase 3 — Telegram bot: TD WebSocket → Oanda pricing stream
File: `telegram_bot.py`; new resolver in `app_config.py`.
1. New `oanda_stream_url()` resolver: env `OANDA_STREAM_URL` → config.json `oanda.stream_url` (add to `_KNOWN_OANDA`) → derived `oanda_base_url().replace("api-", "stream-", 1)`.
2. Pure parser `_parse_stream_line(line) -> Optional[(pair_symbol, mid_price)]`: type==PRICE → mid from closeoutBid/Ask (fallback bids[0]/asks[0]); HEARTBEAT/garbage → None. `_STREAM_TO_PAIR` from `OandaDataProvider.OANDA_INSTRUMENT` (replaces TD-display-keyed `_WS_TO_PAIR`).
3. Reader thread (no new deps): `requests.get(.../v3/accounts/{id}/pricing/stream?instruments=..., stream=True, timeout=(10,30))`, iterate `iter_lines(chunk_size=1)` — **chunk_size=1 is load-bearing** (urllib3 buffering vs 5s server heartbeats); push lines to asyncio queue via `loop.call_soon_threadsafe`; interrupt a blocked read with `resp.close()` from the async side.
4. Async monitor `_oanda_stream_monitor`: dedicated thread (NOT the 4-worker scan executor), `await asyncio.wait_for(queue.get(), timeout=15)` as staleness watchdog (3× server heartbeat) → reconnect with existing exponential-backoff pattern. PRICE lines feed the identical existing body: `_check_level_breach` → `_handle_breach` → M15 rescan, 5-min cooldown. No client heartbeat.
5. **Provider-gated selection** in `_start_scheduler` (line 889): `active_provider == "oanda"` → stream monitor, else existing `_ws_monitor`. This is the rollback hinge and stays permanently (TD fallback). `_stop_scheduler` must stop the reader thread. Generalize `/status` labels (`_status_text` iterates `SCAN_PAIRS`, not `_WS_TO_PAIR`).
6. Tests: `_parse_stream_line` variants (PRICE/closeout, PRICE/arrays, HEARTBEAT, malformed, unknown instrument); `_STREAM_TO_PAIR` round-trip; monitor selection under both `active` values; watchdog-reconnect (structure one connection lifecycle as a testable inner coroutine).
## Phase 4 — Shadow / parity evidence (3–4 weeks, no hot-path code)
The daemon already runs the full signal stack on Oanda bars. Formalize evidence before any cutover:
1. **Code parity (exact)**: replay the daemon's shadow window through the backtester on Oanda data (Phase 2 enables this); diff against daemon-logged decisions per (tf, bar_close_ts) — signal, quality, direction, entry/SL/TP. Acceptance: 100% modulo documented daemon divergences (single-position rule, quality gate). Any mismatch is a bug, not feed noise.
2. **Feed divergence (measured, not zero-gated)**: `backtest/research/shadow_compare.py` parses `logs/telegram.log` + daemon log into per-scan rows: signal agreement rate, direction flips, grade drift, clustering by hour/weekday. Expect high-single-digit % divergence concentrated near grade thresholds and Monday sessions (TD Saturday/rollover bars). Deliverable: written note attributing every divergence class.
3. **Operational telemetry**: boundary grace-retry frequency (is Oanda's just-closed bar present at boundary+10s?), `get_spread()` time series (live input to the Phase 5 cost decision), stream disconnect counts, Monday-open indicator snapshots TD-vs-Oanda.
4. **Owner note**: at cutover the data feed host family should match the execution host (practice vs live pricing can micro-differ).
## Phase 5 — Re-validation campaign (rule 1, owner gates)
Fetch Oanda history (M5/M15/H1/H4/D1, 2020-07 → present; Oanda XAU reaches ~2005). Run matrix per primary TF (M5/M15/H1, current factory configs): 12-mo train/val halves, 5-yr, OOS 2024-06→2025-03 — each at `--spread 0.30` (pure feed-effect A/B vs pinned TD books), `0.70` (honest Oanda cost), `0.85` (rollover stress). Caution: Jul–Nov 2025 is provider-sensitive (weekly offsets −$6..+$18.5) — lean on 5-yr + OOS for decisions. Acceptance unchanged: positive both halves, PF ≥ 1.3, trailing exits, next-open fills, OOS positive.
**Owner decision gates (never silent):**
1. **Canonical cost** — (a) `round_trip_cost=0.70` everywhere (moves the live TP1 spread gate $9→$21 — a strategy re-tune); (b) `default_spread=0.70` for backtest PnL but retune `min_tp_cost_multiple` 30→~13 to preserve the validated $9 gate; (c) keep $0.30 with documented optimism (only if $0.70 books pass anyway). Full acceptance matrix at chosen values.
2. **Degradation handling** per failing TF: re-run tuning grids on Oanda data / drop TF from `scanning.timeframes` / keep Oanda execution-only (status quo).
3. **Re-pin**: passing books become the new pinned CSVs + factory-docstring evidence; CLAUDE.md tuned-value annotations update in the cutover commit, not before.
Files (per decisions): `pair_signals/xauusd.py`, `config.py` (`PAIR_INFO.default_spread`, `SignalConfig.round_trip_cost`/`min_tp_cost_multiple`), `test_all.py` tuned-constant assertions, CLAUDE.md.
## Phase 6 — Cutover (reversible forever; no TD removal)
1. config.json: `data_providers.active: "oanda"` + `"oanda": {}` block; restart bot. Everything flips through two seams: `make_data_provider` (bot shared dp, CLI, backtester) and the Phase 3 monitor selector. Any Phase 5 tuned-value changes land in this commit with their validation records.
2. **Bake ≥1 week** (full weekly cycle incl. Monday open): grace-retry rate, stream stability, alert plausibility vs daemon, `/cache` freshness.
3. **Rollback = flip `active` back** — TD code, key, caches, and WS monitor all stay maintained indefinitely (owner decision). Dual-provider posture: cross-provider sync tests (Phase 1) keep both honest; TD subscription/key must stay valid to remain a real fallback.
4. Docs: CLAUDE.md (pipeline header, data_provider section, env-var table + `OANDA_STREAM_URL`, backtester cache note, comparability note: "pre-Oanda books are TD-feed books"), `docs/` guides if they name the data source.
## Key risks
1. **Cost-gate coupling**: naively setting `round_trip_cost=0.70` silently moves the live $9 TP1 gate to $21 — owner gate 5.1 exists precisely for this.
2. **Cutover before re-pinning** — feed divergence is material (11% of ATR, 10% direction flips); sequencing rule prevents it.
3. **Hermetic test header** — `_TEST_APP` pins twelve_data; provider-swapping tests must restore it or later modules fail mysteriously.
4. **Stream liveness triad** — `chunk_size=1`, `resp.close()` interruption, 15s watchdog.
5. **H4/D1 alignment** — audit before trusting any Oanda backtest.
6. **Monday/rollover divergence class** — attribute in Phase 4 evidence; do not "fix".
## Verification (per phase)
- Phases 1–3: `python test_all.py` green (235 + new); live behavior provably unchanged (TD active).
- Phase 2: pre/post TD book identity diff; Oanda H4/D1 alignment audit.
- Phase 3: soak a second bot instance with `active=oanda` scratch config; observe stream reconnects in log.
- Phase 5: full acceptance matrix, owner sign-offs recorded in factory docstrings.
- Phase 6: 1-week bake checklist above; rollback drill (flip back, confirm TD scan cycle) once during bake.
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"""
ForexBot2 — LLM agent panel (advisory consensus)
=================================================
ai-hedge-fund-style persona panel for XAU/USD signals: four DeepSeek
personas (macro, technical, risk, contrarian) each review a finished
SignalReport from their own angle, then a synthesizer chair weighs the
takes and issues a consensus verdict (AGREE / NEUTRAL / OPPOSE with
confidence and a short rationale).
Two invariants, both load-bearing (CLAUDE.md rules 1 and 4):
- ADVISORY / DISPLAY-ONLY. The verdict is written onto SignalReport
fields that no gate and no scoring path ever reads. Any failure —
LLM down, cap exhausted, garbage reply — degrades to "no panel",
never to a changed or blocked signal.
- NEVER runs inside ``analyze_from_dataframes``. The backtester replays
that function; consumers (telegram_bot, main --panel,
dashboard_publisher) attach the panel POST-HOC via ``attach_panel``,
so replayed books can never see a panel field. Backtest parity holds
by construction.
Cost model: every full panel spends 5 requests (4 personas + 1
synthesizer) against the shared DeepSeek daily cap (llm_client). Two
layers bound the spend on top of that cap:
- ``max_panels_per_day`` (config, default 20) — a UTC-day budget of
panel *attempts*, mirroring the client's request cap.
- A reuse TTL (default 3600 s) keyed on (symbol, timeframe, direction):
a persisting signal re-serves its cached verdict across bars instead
of re-spending. Without this, one sticky M5 dashboard signal would
burn 5 calls per 5-minute bar — 1,440/day against the 500 cap.
Prompts are STATIC module constants (DeepSeek prefix-cache pricing —
see news_engine.py); all variable content travels in the user payload.
"""
import datetime as _dt
import logging
import threading
import time
from collections import OrderedDict
from concurrent.futures import ThreadPoolExecutor, wait as _fwait
from dataclasses import dataclass, field
from typing import TYPE_CHECKING, Any, Dict, List, Optional, Tuple
from app_config import get_app_config
from llm_client import DEFAULT_TIMEOUT, get_llm_client
if TYPE_CHECKING: # type hints only — keep the coupling one-way
from news_engine import FundamentalContext
from signal_aggregator import SignalReport
logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
DEFAULT_MIN_QUALITY = "B"
DEFAULT_MAX_PANELS_PER_DAY = 20
DEFAULT_REUSE_TTL_SECONDS = 3600.0
# Quality ranks for the min_quality gate. Deliberately a local copy —
# telegram_bot's ranking is private and dashboard_publisher must not
# import telegram_bot (hard independence rule).
_QUALITY_RANK = {"A+": 4, "A": 3, "B": 2, "C": 1}
# ── DeepSeek prompts ─────────────────────────────────────────────────
# STATIC constants on purpose: DeepSeek prices a repeated byte-identical
# prompt prefix at the cache-hit rate (~50x cheaper), so nothing here may
# be interpolated or timestamped. All variable content travels in the
# user payload. Panel output is display-only — it never gates signals.
_GOLD_DOCTRINE = """\
Gold doctrine: hawkish Fed / rate hikes / rising real yields / strong
dollar are gold-bearish; easing / rate cuts / safe-haven flows /
geopolitical stress / weak dollar are gold-bullish.
"""
_TAKE_CONTRACT = """\
Your review is advisory research on an already-generated signal; you are
one voice on a panel, not the decision maker.
Hard rules: use ONLY the data in the JSON you receive — do not invent
numbers, events, or price levels. If the evidence your role needs is
thin or missing, answer "neutral" with confidence below 30, unless your
role's instructions say otherwise.
Confidence scale (0-100): 80-100 strong one-sided evidence; 50-79 solid
case with some doubt; 30-49 mixed evidence; below 30 little basis to
judge.
Write the note in plain everyday English for someone who has never
traded: short simple sentences, no trading jargon, no acronyms, no
abbreviations. Say "profit versus loss", not "RR"; "the 4-hour chart",
not "H4"; describe what an indicator MEANS ("the price has climbed
unusually fast"), never its name or number.
Reply with ONLY JSON:
{"stance": "support"|"oppose"|"neutral", "confidence": <0-100>,
"note": "<max 25 words>"}
"stance" says whether YOUR analysis supports the proposed trade
direction, opposes it, or is genuinely mixed; "confidence" is how sure
you are of your stance; "note" is your single most important point.
"""
_MACRO_SYSTEM = """\
You are the macro analyst on a gold (XAU/USD) trade-review panel. You
receive JSON: a proposed trade brief ("brief": direction, timeframe,
quality, price, regime) plus the current fundamental picture — recent
"headlines", today's high-impact "events" (released: true means the
number is out), a news "sentiment" score for gold, and an optional
"news_summary" blurb.
Judge ONE thing: does the macro backdrop support the proposed direction?
Weigh released surprises over stale headlines; an imminent unreleased
high-impact event is a reason for lower confidence, not a direction.
Stance rules:
- support: the released data and news flow clearly push gold in the
proposed direction.
- oppose: they clearly push gold the other way.
- neutral: the picture is mixed or stale — or there are no meaningful
headlines or events to judge (score that low confidence).
""" + _GOLD_DOCTRINE + """\
Example: brief direction BUY, headlines dominated by hawkish Fed
repricing and a hot CPI print -> {"stance": "oppose", "confidence": 70,
"note": "Inflation is running hot, so interest rates should stay high — that usually pushes gold down."}
Example: brief direction BUY, headlines led by an escalating conflict
and a soft jobs report -> {"stance": "support", "confidence": 75,
"note": "Worries about war and a cooling economy usually send money into gold."}
""" + _TAKE_CONTRACT
_TECH_SYSTEM = """\
You are the technical analyst on a gold (XAU/USD) trade-review panel.
You receive JSON: a proposed trade brief ("brief") plus the technical
evidence — per-"indicators" signal/confidence, multi-timeframe
"mtf" signals and scores, "key_levels" versus the current price, and an
"exhaustion" count of consecutive same-direction bars flagged by the
engine.
Judge ONE thing: is the technical picture internally coherent for the
proposed direction? Look for indicators fighting each other, the signal
fighting the regime (e.g. a BUY in trending_down), higher timeframes
disagreeing, price pressed into a key level, or an exhausted move being
chased.
Stance rules:
- support: the indicators, higher timeframes, and regime mostly agree
with the proposed direction and none of the conflicts above appear.
- oppose: one or more of those conflicts is present and serious.
- neutral: the evidence genuinely cuts both ways, or too much of it is
missing to judge (score that low confidence).
Example: brief direction SELL in regime trending_up with H1 and H4 both
BUY -> {"stance": "oppose", "confidence": 80,
"note": "This bets on gold falling while the bigger picture still points up."}
Example: brief direction BUY in regime trending_up with M15 and H1 both
BUY and exhaustion 0 -> {"stance": "support", "confidence": 70,
"note": "Every way of looking at the chart points up, so buying goes with the flow."}
""" + _TAKE_CONTRACT
_RISK_SYSTEM = """\
You are the risk manager on a gold (XAU/USD) trade-review panel. You
receive JSON: a proposed trade brief ("brief") plus the risk facts —
the trade "setup" (entry, stop_loss, take_profit_1/2, risk_reward,
risk_dollars), the "volatility" regime, engine "warnings", the calendar
"event_risk" level, and the assumed "spread".
Judge ONE thing: is this setup's risk acceptable as constructed? Check
reward-to-risk adequacy, stop distance versus the volatility regime
(a tight stop in extreme vol dies to noise; a huge stop in low vol is
oversized), spread as a fraction of the stop, and event landmines about
to hit.
Stance rules:
- support: the likely reward clearly justifies the risk, the stop fits
the current volatility, and no event landmine is imminent.
- oppose: reward too thin for the risk, a stop mismatched to the
volatility, spread eating a big share of the stop, an imminent
high-impact event — or no setup at all (a missing setup means the
signal graded too low for one; oppose unless the rest is
exceptional).
- neutral: acceptable but unremarkable — nothing dangerous, nothing
attractive.
Example: RR 1.4 with volatility extreme and a high-impact event due ->
{"stance": "oppose", "confidence": 65,
"note": "The possible profit is small for such wild price swings, and big economic news is due soon."}
Example: RR 2.4 with normal volatility and no events due ->
{"stance": "support", "confidence": 70,
"note": "The possible profit is more than double the possible loss, and conditions look calm."}
""" + _TAKE_CONTRACT
_CONTRARIAN_SYSTEM = """\
You are the contrarian on a gold (XAU/USD) trade-review panel — the
designated skeptic. You receive JSON: a proposed trade brief ("brief"),
the engine's own "bullish_reasons" and "bearish_reasons", its
"warnings", and an optional "news_summary".
Your job: construct the strongest honest case AGAINST the proposed
trade, then score how damaging that case is. Use "oppose" only when the
counter-case is genuinely strong, "neutral" when it is real but modest,
and "support" when even the skeptic finds nothing that bites.
""" + _GOLD_DOCTRINE + """\
Example: a BUY whose own engine lists three bearish reasons and a
counter-trend warning -> {"stance": "oppose", "confidence": 60,
"note": "The system's own list of negatives looks stronger than its reason to buy."}
""" + _TAKE_CONTRACT
_SYNTH_SYSTEM = """\
You are the chair of a gold (XAU/USD) trade-review panel. You receive
JSON: the proposed trade "direction" and the panel's "takes" — one per
analyst ("persona", "stance", "confidence", "note").
Weigh the takes into ONE consensus on whether to act on the signal:
"AGREE" (the panel backs the trade), "OPPOSE" (the panel is against it),
or "NEUTRAL" (genuinely split or low conviction). Weigh a high-
confidence oppose from any single analyst seriously — one strong veto
can outweigh two lukewarm supports. Do not average blindly.
Base the verdict and rationale ONLY on the takes given — do not add
outside analysis.
Confidence scale (0-100): 80-100 the panel clearly leans one way; 50-79
a lean with real dissent; below 50 split or low conviction.
Write the rationale in plain everyday English for someone who has never
traded: short simple sentences, no trading jargon, no acronyms, no
abbreviations.
Example rationale: "Three of four analysts are against this: the
possible profit is too small and the price has already climbed
unusually fast. Only the news backdrop supports buying."
Reply with ONLY JSON:
{"verdict": "AGREE"|"NEUTRAL"|"OPPOSE", "confidence": <0-100>,
"rationale": "<max 40 words>"}
"""
# ── Result types ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────
@dataclass
class PersonaTake:
persona: str # "macro" | "technical" | "risk" | "contrarian"
stance: str # "support" | "oppose" | "neutral"
confidence: float # 0-100
note: str
@dataclass
class PanelVerdict:
verdict: str # "AGREE" | "NEUTRAL" | "OPPOSE"
confidence: float # 0-100
rationale: str
takes: List[PersonaTake] = field(default_factory=list)
created_ts: float = 0.0
# ── Payload builders (pure functions; llm_client json-dumps sorted) ──
def _direction(report: "SignalReport") -> Optional[str]:
"""BUY/SELL the panel should review; None = nothing to review."""
if report.trade_setup is not None:
return report.trade_setup.direction
if report.final_signal.value > 0:
return "BUY"
if report.final_signal.value < 0:
return "SELL"
return None
def _brief(report: "SignalReport") -> Dict[str, Any]:
analysis = report.primary_analysis
return {
"pair": report.display_name,
"timeframe": analysis.timeframe if analysis else "",
"direction": _direction(report),
"quality": report.signal_quality,
"score": round(report.final_score, 1),
"confidence": round(report.final_confidence),
"price": round(report.current_price, 2),
"market_regime": report.market_regime,
"volatility_regime": report.volatility_regime,
"mtf_agreement": report.mtf_agreement,
}
def _macro_payload(report: "SignalReport",
context: Optional["FundamentalContext"]) -> Dict[str, Any]:
headlines: List[str] = []
events: List[Dict[str, Any]] = []
if context is not None:
headlines = [h.headline for h in context.news_headlines[:10]]
events = [
{"event": e.event, "currency": e.currency,
"actual": e.actual, "forecast": e.forecast,
"released": not e.is_upcoming}
for e in context.events_today if e.is_high_impact
][:8]
return {
"brief": _brief(report),
"headlines": headlines,
"events": events,
"sentiment": round(report.news_sentiment, 3),
"news_summary": report.news_summary,
}
def _technical_payload(report: "SignalReport") -> Dict[str, Any]:
indicators: Dict[str, Dict[str, Any]] = {}
key_levels: Dict[str, float] = {}
analysis = report.primary_analysis
if analysis is not None:
# Same visibility filter as main.report_to_dict: private series
# ride as _-prefixed pseudo-indicators, weight-0 = context-only.
indicators = {
name: {"signal": ind.signal.name,
"confidence": round(ind.confidence)}
for name, ind in analysis.indicators.items()
if not name.startswith("_") and ind.weight != 0
}
key_levels = {k: round(v, 2) for k, v in analysis.key_levels.items()}
return {
"brief": _brief(report),
"indicators": indicators,
"mtf": {tf: {"signal": sig.name,
"score": round(report.mtf_scores.get(tf, 0.0), 1)}
for tf, sig in report.mtf_signals.items()},
"key_levels": key_levels,
"exhaustion": report.exhaustion_count,
}
def _risk_payload(report: "SignalReport") -> Dict[str, Any]:
payload: Dict[str, Any] = {
"brief": _brief(report),
"volatility": report.volatility_regime,
"warnings": list(report.warnings),
"event_risk": report.event_risk,
"event_description": report.event_description,
"spread": round(report.spread_estimate, 2),
}
ts = report.trade_setup
if ts is not None:
payload["setup"] = {
"direction": ts.direction,
"entry": round(ts.entry_price, 2),
"stop_loss": round(ts.stop_loss, 2),
"take_profit_1": round(ts.take_profit_1, 2),
"take_profit_2": round(ts.take_profit_2, 2),
"risk_reward": round(ts.risk_reward, 2),
"risk_dollars": round(ts.risk_pips * ts.pip_value, 2),
}
return payload
def _contrarian_payload(report: "SignalReport") -> Dict[str, Any]:
return {
"brief": _brief(report),
"bullish_reasons": report.bullish_reasons[:3],
"bearish_reasons": report.bearish_reasons[:3],
"warnings": list(report.warnings),
"news_summary": report.news_summary,
}
# ── Orchestration ────────────────────────────────────────────────────
# Panel-private pool: the 4 persona calls run concurrently WITHOUT
# occupying telegram_bot's shared scan executor (which has 4 workers —
# borrowing them would stall every other scan for the panel's duration).
_pool = ThreadPoolExecutor(max_workers=4, thread_name_prefix="agent-panel")
_VALID_STANCES = ("support", "oppose", "neutral")
_VALID_VERDICTS = ("AGREE", "NEUTRAL", "OPPOSE")
def _clamp_confidence(raw: Any) -> Optional[float]:
try:
return max(0.0, min(100.0, float(raw)))
except (TypeError, ValueError):
return None
def _validate_take(persona: str, reply: Any) -> Optional[PersonaTake]:
if not isinstance(reply, dict):
return None
stance = reply.get("stance")
if stance not in _VALID_STANCES:
return None
confidence = _clamp_confidence(reply.get("confidence"))
if confidence is None:
return None
note = str(reply.get("note", "")).strip()[:160]
return PersonaTake(persona=persona, stance=stance,
confidence=confidence, note=note)
def _ask_persona(persona: str, system: str,
payload: Dict[str, Any]) -> Optional[PersonaTake]:
# Client resolved at call time: tests install stubs via lc._client.
reply = get_llm_client().chat_json(system, payload)
return _validate_take(persona, reply)
def run_panel(report: "SignalReport",
context: Optional["FundamentalContext"] = None,
) -> Optional[PanelVerdict]:
"""Run 4 personas + synthesizer; None = no verdict (fail-safe).
Requires ≥2 valid persona takes before spending the synthesizer
request; the synthesizer's reply is validated strictly and there is
deliberately NO programmatic fallback verdict — a panel that could
not really convene reports nothing rather than something invented.
"""
direction = _direction(report)
if direction is None:
return None
jobs = (
("macro", _MACRO_SYSTEM, _macro_payload(report, context)),
("technical", _TECH_SYSTEM, _technical_payload(report)),
("risk", _RISK_SYSTEM, _risk_payload(report)),
("contrarian", _CONTRARIAN_SYSTEM, _contrarian_payload(report)),
)
futures = [_pool.submit(_ask_persona, name, system, payload)
for name, system, payload in jobs]
# The HTTP timeout inside the client bounds each call; the margin
# covers pool queueing. Stragglers past the wait are abandoned (their
# threads finish harmlessly) and simply don't vote.
client_timeout = getattr(get_llm_client(), "_timeout", DEFAULT_TIMEOUT)
done, _ = _fwait(futures, timeout=client_timeout + 8.0)
takes = [f.result() for f in done if not f.exception()]
takes = [t for t in takes if t is not None]
if len(takes) < 2:
logger.debug("agent panel: %d/4 persona takes — skipping synthesizer",
len(takes))
return None
order = {"macro": 0, "technical": 1, "risk": 2, "contrarian": 3}
takes.sort(key=lambda t: order.get(t.persona, 9))
reply = get_llm_client().chat_json(_SYNTH_SYSTEM, {
"direction": direction,
"takes": [{"persona": t.persona, "stance": t.stance,
"confidence": t.confidence, "note": t.note}
for t in takes],
})
if not isinstance(reply, dict):
return None
verdict = reply.get("verdict")
confidence = _clamp_confidence(reply.get("confidence"))
if verdict not in _VALID_VERDICTS or confidence is None:
return None
rationale = str(reply.get("rationale", "")).strip()[:240]
return PanelVerdict(verdict=verdict, confidence=confidence,
rationale=rationale, takes=takes,
created_ts=time.time())
# ── Cache, budget, attach ────────────────────────────────────────────
_state_lock = threading.Lock()
# Exact result per reviewed bar: repeated attaches on the same signal
# (re-scan, multi-consumer) are free.
_cache: "OrderedDict[Tuple[str, str, str, str], PanelVerdict]" = OrderedDict()
_CACHE_MAX = 32
# Reuse layer: a persisting signal (same symbol/tf/direction, newer bar)
# re-serves its last verdict for reuse_ttl_seconds instead of re-spending
# 5 requests per bar (see module docstring for the M5 dashboard math).
_last_by_dir: Dict[Tuple[str, str, str], PanelVerdict] = {}
# UTC-day budget of panel attempts (mirrors llm_client._under_cap).
_panel_day: Optional[_dt.date] = None
_panel_count: int = 0
_warned_budget = False
def reset_panel_state() -> None:
"""Drop caches and counters (tests / config reloads)."""
global _panel_day, _panel_count, _warned_budget
with _state_lock:
_cache.clear()
_last_by_dir.clear()
_panel_day = None
_panel_count = 0
_warned_budget = False
def panel_health() -> Dict[str, Any]:
"""Read-only counters for status displays."""
settings = get_app_config().agent_panel_settings
cap = int(settings.get("max_panels_per_day", DEFAULT_MAX_PANELS_PER_DAY))
today = _dt.datetime.now(_dt.timezone.utc).date()
with _state_lock:
used = _panel_count if _panel_day == today else 0
return {"used_today": used, "cap": cap}
def _under_panel_budget(cap: int) -> bool:
"""Count one panel attempt against the UTC-day budget."""
global _panel_day, _panel_count, _warned_budget
today = _dt.datetime.now(_dt.timezone.utc).date()
with _state_lock:
if _panel_day != today:
_panel_day = today
_panel_count = 0
_warned_budget = False
if _panel_count >= cap:
if not _warned_budget:
_warned_budget = True
logger.warning(
"agent panel: daily budget (%d) exhausted — no more "
"panels until UTC midnight", cap)
return False
_panel_count += 1
return True
def _write_fields(report: "SignalReport", v: PanelVerdict) -> None:
report.panel_verdict = v.verdict
report.panel_confidence = float(v.confidence)
report.panel_rationale = v.rationale
report.panel_takes = [
{"persona": t.persona, "stance": t.stance,
"confidence": t.confidence, "note": t.note} for t in v.takes]
def attach_panel(report: "SignalReport",
settings: Optional[Dict[str, Any]] = None,
surface: str = "telegram",
force: bool = False,
context: Optional["FundamentalContext"] = None) -> bool:
"""Best-effort panel attach; True iff panel fields were populated.
Advisory feature contract: NEVER raises — an exploding panel must
not cost an alert send or a dashboard publish. ``force`` (CLI
--panel) bypasses the enabled/surface/quality toggles but never the
daily budget or the shared LLM cap.
"""
try:
if settings is None:
settings = get_app_config().agent_panel_settings
if not force:
if not settings.get("enabled", False):
return False
surface_on = {
"telegram": settings.get("telegram", True),
"dashboard": settings.get("dashboard", False),
}.get(surface, True)
if not surface_on:
return False
min_quality = settings.get("min_quality", DEFAULT_MIN_QUALITY)
if (_QUALITY_RANK.get(report.signal_quality, -1)
< _QUALITY_RANK.get(min_quality, 2)):
return False
direction = _direction(report)
if direction is None:
return False
analysis = report.primary_analysis
tf = analysis.timeframe if analysis else ""
exact_key = (report.symbol, tf, report.timestamp, direction)
dir_key = (report.symbol, tf, direction)
ttl = float(settings.get("reuse_ttl_seconds",
DEFAULT_REUSE_TTL_SECONDS))
with _state_lock:
hit = _cache.get(exact_key)
if hit is None:
prior = _last_by_dir.get(dir_key)
if prior is not None and time.time() - prior.created_ts < ttl:
hit = prior
if hit is not None:
_write_fields(report, hit)
return True
cap = int(settings.get("max_panels_per_day",
DEFAULT_MAX_PANELS_PER_DAY))
if not _under_panel_budget(cap):
return False
if context is None:
# Best-effort; the news engine's class-level 600 s caches make
# this nearly free when warm in both bot and dashboard.
try:
from config import PlatformConfig
from news_engine import NewsEngine
context = NewsEngine(
PlatformConfig().news).get_fundamental_context()
except Exception as e:
logger.debug("agent panel: news context unavailable: %s", e)
context = None
verdict = run_panel(report, context)
if verdict is None:
return False
_write_fields(report, verdict)
with _state_lock:
_cache[exact_key] = verdict
while len(_cache) > _CACHE_MAX:
_cache.popitem(last=False)
_last_by_dir[dir_key] = verdict
return True
except Exception:
logger.exception("agent panel: attach failed — signal unaffected")
return False
+2 -81
View File
@@ -85,19 +85,11 @@ _VALID_LOG_LEVELS = ("DEBUG", "INFO", "WARNING", "ERROR", "CRITICAL")
# AUTOSCAN_CONFIRMATIONS entries in telegram_bot.py).
_SCANNABLE_TFS = ("M5", "M15", "H1", "H4")
_KNOWN_TOP = {"telegram", "data_providers", "scanning", "pairs", "log_level",
"oanda", "deepseek", "agent_panel"}
_KNOWN_TOP = {"telegram", "data_providers", "scanning", "pairs", "log_level", "oanda"}
_KNOWN_OANDA = {
"account_id", "api_token", "base_url", "lot_size",
"quality_gate", "max_hold_bars",
}
_KNOWN_DEEPSEEK = {
"api_key", "model", "enabled", "timeout_seconds", "daily_request_cap",
}
_KNOWN_AGENT_PANEL = {
"enabled", "telegram", "dashboard", "min_quality",
"max_panels_per_day", "reuse_ttl_seconds",
}
_KNOWN_TELEGRAM = {"token", "chat_id", "channel_id", "alert_min_quality"}
_KNOWN_SCANNING = {"pairs", "timeframes"}
_KNOWN_PAIR_KEYS = {"blocked_hours_utc"}
@@ -114,15 +106,12 @@ class AppConfig:
telegram_channel_id: str = "" # "" = channel feed disabled
alert_min_quality: str = "C"
active_provider: str = "twelve_data"
streaming_provider: Optional[str] = None # None = active provider
provider_settings: Dict[str, Dict[str, Any]] = field(default_factory=dict)
scan_pairs: List[str] = field(default_factory=lambda: [XAUUSD])
scan_timeframes: List[Timeframe] = field(default_factory=lambda: [
Timeframe.M5, Timeframe.M15, Timeframe.H1, Timeframe.H4])
pair_overrides: Dict[str, Dict[str, Any]] = field(default_factory=dict)
oanda_settings: Dict[str, Any] = field(default_factory=dict)
deepseek_settings: Dict[str, Any] = field(default_factory=dict)
agent_panel_settings: Dict[str, Any] = field(default_factory=dict)
log_level: str = "INFO"
@@ -173,8 +162,7 @@ def load_app_config(path: str = CONFIG_PATH) -> AppConfig:
app.active_provider = str(dp.get("active", app.active_provider))
app.provider_settings = {}
for name, block in dp.items():
# "active" and "streaming" are reserved scalars, not blocks.
if name in ("active", "streaming"):
if name == "active":
continue
if not isinstance(block, dict):
raise AppConfigError(
@@ -184,17 +172,6 @@ def load_app_config(path: str = CONFIG_PATH) -> AppConfig:
raise AppConfigError(
f'config.json: data_providers.active "{app.active_provider}" '
"has no matching provider block")
streaming = dp.get("streaming")
if streaming is not None:
if not isinstance(streaming, str):
raise AppConfigError(
'config.json: data_providers.streaming must be a string '
"(a provider name)")
if streaming not in app.provider_settings:
raise AppConfigError(
f'config.json: data_providers.streaming "{streaming}" '
"has no matching provider block")
app.streaming_provider = streaming
scanning = raw.get("scanning", {})
_check_keys(scanning, _KNOWN_SCANNING, '"scanning"')
@@ -258,54 +235,6 @@ def load_app_config(path: str = CONFIG_PATH) -> AppConfig:
"config.json: oanda.max_hold_bars must be a positive integer")
app.oanda_settings = dict(oanda)
deepseek = raw.get("deepseek", {})
_check_keys(deepseek, _KNOWN_DEEPSEEK, '"deepseek"')
if "enabled" in deepseek and not isinstance(deepseek["enabled"], bool):
raise AppConfigError(
"config.json: deepseek.enabled must be true or false")
if "timeout_seconds" in deepseek:
ts = deepseek["timeout_seconds"]
if isinstance(ts, bool) or not isinstance(ts, (int, float)) or ts <= 0:
raise AppConfigError(
"config.json: deepseek.timeout_seconds must be a positive "
"number")
if "daily_request_cap" in deepseek:
cap = deepseek["daily_request_cap"]
if isinstance(cap, bool) or not isinstance(cap, int) or cap < 1:
raise AppConfigError(
"config.json: deepseek.daily_request_cap must be a positive "
"integer")
if "model" in deepseek:
if not isinstance(deepseek["model"], str) or not deepseek["model"]:
raise AppConfigError(
"config.json: deepseek.model must be a non-empty string")
app.deepseek_settings = dict(deepseek)
panel = raw.get("agent_panel", {})
_check_keys(panel, _KNOWN_AGENT_PANEL, '"agent_panel"')
for flag in ("enabled", "telegram", "dashboard"):
if flag in panel and not isinstance(panel[flag], bool):
raise AppConfigError(
f"config.json: agent_panel.{flag} must be true or false")
if "min_quality" in panel and panel["min_quality"] not in _VALID_QUALITIES:
raise AppConfigError(
f'config.json: agent_panel.min_quality "{panel["min_quality"]}" '
f"not in {_VALID_QUALITIES}")
if "max_panels_per_day" in panel:
mpd = panel["max_panels_per_day"]
if isinstance(mpd, bool) or not isinstance(mpd, int) or mpd < 1:
raise AppConfigError(
"config.json: agent_panel.max_panels_per_day must be a "
"positive integer")
if "reuse_ttl_seconds" in panel:
ttl = panel["reuse_ttl_seconds"]
if isinstance(ttl, bool) or not isinstance(ttl, (int, float)) \
or ttl < 0:
raise AppConfigError(
"config.json: agent_panel.reuse_ttl_seconds must be a "
"non-negative number")
app.agent_panel_settings = dict(panel)
level = raw.get("log_level", app.log_level)
if level not in _VALID_LOG_LEVELS:
raise AppConfigError(
@@ -397,14 +326,6 @@ def oanda_base_url(app: Optional[AppConfig] = None) -> str:
app.oanda_settings.get("base_url", "https://api-fxpractice.oanda.com"))
# ── DeepSeek resolution helper (env → config.json → "") ──────────────
def deepseek_api_key(app: Optional[AppConfig] = None) -> str:
app = app or get_app_config()
return os.environ.get("DEEPSEEK_API_KEY") or str(
app.deepseek_settings.get("api_key", ""))
# ── PlatformConfig overlay ────────────────────────────────────────────
def apply_pair_overrides(
+21 -159
View File
@@ -40,13 +40,10 @@ from dataclasses import dataclass, field
from datetime import datetime, timedelta, timezone
from pathlib import Path
from typing import Dict, List, Optional, Tuple
from zoneinfo import ZoneInfo
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
_NY_TZ = ZoneInfo("America/New_York")
# Ensure project root on sys.path so this script can be invoked from anywhere.
PROJECT_ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parent.parent
if str(PROJECT_ROOT) not in sys.path:
@@ -405,11 +402,6 @@ class GPUTechnicalEngine(TechnicalEngine):
# cache key = timeframe.value (e.g. "15min", "1h", "4h")
self.caches = caches
self._current_tf: Optional[str] = None
# Cache-miss fallbacks recompute with the live engine's pandas
# math (different EWM seeding than the precomputed cache). That
# is a parity hazard, so it must never happen silently.
self.fallback_count = 0
self._fallback_warned = False
def analyze(self, df: pd.DataFrame, symbol: str, timeframe: str) -> TechnicalAnalysis:
# Latch the timeframe so per-indicator overrides know which cache to use.
@@ -427,23 +419,9 @@ class GPUTechnicalEngine(TechnicalEngine):
return None, -1
cache = self.caches.get(self._current_tf)
if cache is None:
self._note_fallback(f"no cache for TF {self._current_tf!r}")
return None, -1
pos = cache.index_pos.get(df.index[-1])
if pos is None:
self._note_fallback(
f"{self._current_tf}: slice end {df.index[-1]} not in cache")
return None, -1
return cache, pos
def _note_fallback(self, why: str) -> None:
self.fallback_count += 1
if not self._fallback_warned:
self._fallback_warned = True
logger.warning(
"GPU cache miss → falling back to live-engine recompute "
"(%s). Further misses counted silently; check "
"fallback_count at end of run.", why)
return (cache, pos) if pos is not None else (None, -1)
# ── EMA overrides ──────────────────────────────────────────────
@@ -551,11 +529,6 @@ class GPUTechnicalEngine(TechnicalEngine):
signal = SignalStrength.NEUTRAL
conf = 40
# Mirrors the live engine's ema_partial_neutral squash (parity).
if c.ema_partial_neutral and signal in (SignalStrength.BUY, SignalStrength.SELL):
signal = SignalStrength.NEUTRAL
conf = 40
crossover_desc = ""
# Live: `if len(ema_fast) >= 3:` then iloc[-2] — needs len ≥ 2 functionally,
# but live's guard requires len ≥ 3 so we match that to stay byte-identical.
@@ -848,12 +821,7 @@ class GPUTechnicalEngine(TechnicalEngine):
c = self.config
n = c.roc_period
# Mirror the live guard (engine._compute_roc: len < n + 5 → skip,
# i.e. emit only from pos >= n + 4). Unreachable in practice —
# analyze() floors at 30 bars and n+4 < 30 for shipped periods —
# but keep the engines textually aligned so a future period/floor
# change can't open a silent divergence window.
if pos < n + 4:
if pos < n + 1:
return
roc_val = float(cache.roc[pos])
@@ -903,11 +871,6 @@ class GPUTechnicalEngine(TechnicalEngine):
return super()._compute_keltner(df, result)
c = self.config
# Mirror the live guard (engine._compute_keltner: len < max(kc_period,
# kc_atr_period) + 5 → skip). Unreachable below the 30-bar analyze()
# floor with shipped periods; kept aligned for the same reason as ROC.
if pos < max(c.kc_period, c.kc_atr_period) + 4:
return
latest = float(df["Close"].iloc[-1])
kc_upper_val = float(cache.kc_upper[pos])
kc_lower_val = float(cache.kc_lower[pos])
@@ -1011,16 +974,6 @@ def fetch_history(
path = _cache_path(symbol, timeframe, start, end, provider.name)
if use_cache and path.exists():
logger.info(f"Loading cached {symbol} {timeframe.value}: {path.name}")
# Files written before the raw-cache change (2026-07-08, commit
# 6a96ed6) contain CLEANED bars; loading one with clean=False
# would silently miss the spike bars the raw path exists to model.
# The key format predates versioning, so detect by mtime.
_RAW_CACHE_EPOCH = 1783468800.0 # 2026-07-08 00:00 UTC
if path.stat().st_mtime < _RAW_CACHE_EPOCH:
logger.error(
f"{path.name} predates the raw-cache format (2026-07-08) "
f"and likely contains CLEANED bars — delete it and refetch "
f"before trusting trade resolution on this window")
df = pd.read_parquet(path)
if df.index.tz is None:
df.index = df.index.tz_localize("UTC")
@@ -1172,15 +1125,6 @@ def _simulate_trailing(
reason = "TIMEOUT"
for j in range(n):
if np.isnan(h[j]):
# Data ends here: close at the LAST VALID bar, not at
# c[n-1] (which may itself be NaN — a NaN exit price used
# to poison r_multiple and every downstream metric).
if j == 0:
exit_idx = 0
reason = "NO_DATA"
else:
exit_idx = j - 1
exit_price = float(c[exit_idx])
break
hit = (l[j] <= cur_sl) if buy else (h[j] >= cur_sl)
if hit:
@@ -1202,15 +1146,8 @@ def _simulate_trailing(
else peak + dist * risk)
cur_sl = max(cur_sl, lvl) if buy else min(cur_sl, lvl)
if reason == "NO_DATA":
t.exit_reason = reason
continue
if exit_price is None:
exit_price = float(c[exit_idx])
if not np.isfinite(exit_price):
# Last-resort guard: never emit a NaN exit/R into the book.
t.exit_reason = "NO_DATA"
continue
t.exit_reason = reason
t.bars_held = exit_idx + 1
t.exit_price = float(exit_price)
@@ -1383,12 +1320,6 @@ def simulate_trades(
last_idx = int(n_valid) - 1
t.exit_price = float(closes_arr[i, last_idx])
t.exit_time = exit_times[i][last_idx]
if not np.isfinite(t.exit_price):
# NaN close on the final window bar (corrupt raw data)
# must not become a NaN R.
t.exit_reason = "NO_DATA"
t.exit_price = None
continue
# Realized R from actual fill prices, net of round-trip spread.
risk = abs(t.entry_price - t.sl)
@@ -1441,12 +1372,6 @@ class BacktestConfig:
# Round-trip transaction cost in price units, charged on every trade
# (XAU/USD retail spread ≈ $0.30). 0 disables.
spread: float = 0.30
# RESEARCH (2026-08): >0 replaces the exit model with a hard TP at
# this multiple of risk from entry (2.0 = fixed 1:2 RR); trailing is
# disabled for ALL trades, including per-trade XAU_PB overrides.
# Entries/stops/gates are untouched, so the signal book is identical
# to the baseline — only the exit policy changes. Never shipped.
fixed_rr_tp: float = 0.0
# Replay worker processes for the bar loop. 0 = auto (cpu_count - 2,
# capped at 12), 1 = sequential in-process. Signal evaluation per bar
# is pure (past data only), so it fans out across forked workers; the
@@ -1459,22 +1384,18 @@ class BacktestConfig:
def _is_xau_blocked_by_calendar(ts: pd.Timestamp, cfg: PlatformConfig) -> Optional[str]:
"""Apply XAU weekend + allowed-weekday filter matching live `analyze_pair`.
Market closed Friday 17:00 -> Sunday 18:00 NEW YORK time (= Fri
21:00 UTC in US summer, 22:00 in winter — matches measured Oanda
feed behavior; 2026-08-04 audit I43). Must match `_is_forex_weekend`
in signal_aggregator.py exactly (rule 4; Module 21 agreement test).
Note the weekday gates below stay on UTC weekday — they mirror the
live gates, which evaluate UTC weekdays.
Forex market closed: Friday 22:00 UTC -> Sunday 22:00 UTC (Sydney open).
Must match `_is_forex_weekend` in signal_aggregator.py exactly.
"""
xau = cfg.xau_strategy
if xau.weekend_filter:
ny = ts.astimezone(_NY_TZ)
wd = ny.weekday()
if wd == 4 and ny.hour >= 17:
wd = ts.weekday()
hour = ts.hour
if wd == 4 and hour >= 22:
return "WEEKEND_FILTER"
if wd == 5:
return "WEEKEND_FILTER"
if wd == 6 and ny.hour < 18:
if wd == 6 and hour < 22:
return "WEEKEND_FILTER"
if xau.allowed_weekdays and ts.weekday() not in xau.allowed_weekdays:
return "DAY_FILTER"
@@ -1691,43 +1612,6 @@ def _reanchor_entries_to_raw(
)
def _apply_cooldown(
candidates: List[Tuple[int, Trade]], cooldown_bars: int
) -> List[Tuple[int, Trade]]:
"""Ordered cooldown pass over (bar_pos, Trade) candidates: drop any
candidate within `cooldown_bars` bars of the previously ACCEPTED
entry — exactly what a sequential replay loop would have skipped.
Candidates must already be sorted by position (stable merge from the
worker spans)."""
accepted: List[Tuple[int, Trade]] = []
last_entry_pos = -10_000
for pos, trade in candidates:
if pos - last_entry_pos < cooldown_bars:
continue
accepted.append((pos, trade))
last_entry_pos = pos
return accepted
def _apply_fixed_rr_tp(trades: List[Trade], mult: float) -> None:
"""RESEARCH: replace each trade's TP with a hard target at
`mult` × |entry − sl| and zero the per-trade trail params so the
XAU_PB overrides cannot resurrect trailing. Risk is measured off the
final (re-anchored) entry/SL, so call this after
`_reanchor_entries_to_raw`. The caller must also pass
trail_arm_r=0 to `simulate_trades` — dispatch is on the run-level arg."""
for t in trades:
risk = abs(t.entry_price - t.sl)
t.tp1 = (t.entry_price + mult * risk if t.direction == "BUY"
else t.entry_price - mult * risk)
t.tp2 = t.tp1 # static branch never reads tp2; CSV hygiene
t.trail_arm_r = 0.0
t.trail_dist_r = 0.0
t.rr_planned = mult
if t.pip_value:
t.reward_pips = mult * risk / t.pip_value
def run_backtest(
bt_cfg: BacktestConfig,
platform_cfg: Optional[PlatformConfig] = None,
@@ -1855,10 +1739,18 @@ def run_backtest(
candidates.extend(cands)
candidates.sort(key=lambda pc: pc[0])
# ── Phase 2: entry cooldown — the only sequential rule.
accepted = _apply_cooldown(candidates, bt_cfg.cooldown_bars)
trades: List[Trade] = [t for _, t in accepted]
signal_ts_list: List[pd.Timestamp] = [primary_df.index[p] for p, _ in accepted]
# ── Phase 2: entry cooldown — the only sequential rule. A candidate
# inside the cooldown window of the previously ACCEPTED entry is
# dropped, exactly as the sequential loop skipped those bars.
trades: List[Trade] = []
signal_ts_list: List[pd.Timestamp] = []
last_entry_pos = -10_000
for pos, trade in candidates:
if pos - last_entry_pos < bt_cfg.cooldown_bars:
continue
trades.append(trade)
signal_ts_list.append(primary_df.index[pos])
last_entry_pos = pos
logger.info(
f"Replay complete: {len(trades)} entries in "
@@ -1878,17 +1770,10 @@ def run_backtest(
use_cache=bt_cfg.use_cache, clean=False,
)
_reanchor_entries_to_raw(trades, signal_ts_list, sim_df)
if bt_cfg.fixed_rr_tp > 0:
_apply_fixed_rr_tp(trades, bt_cfg.fixed_rr_tp)
logger.info(
f"RESEARCH override: fixed-RR TP = {bt_cfg.fixed_rr_tp} x risk; "
f"trailing exit DISABLED for all {len(trades)} trades (incl. XAU_PB)"
)
run_arm = 0.0 if bt_cfg.fixed_rr_tp > 0 else platform_cfg.signals.trail_arm_r
t_sim = time.perf_counter()
simulate_trades(trades, sim_df, max_bars=bt_cfg.max_hold_bars,
spread=bt_cfg.spread,
trail_arm_r=run_arm,
trail_arm_r=platform_cfg.signals.trail_arm_r,
trail_dist_r=platform_cfg.signals.trail_dist_r)
logger.info(
f"Trade simulation took {time.perf_counter() - t_sim:.2f}s "
@@ -1938,14 +1823,6 @@ def _summarize(rs: List[float]) -> Dict:
def compute_metrics(trades: List[Trade]) -> Metrics:
resolved = [t for t in trades if t.exit_reason and t.exit_reason != "NO_DATA"]
# Last line of defense: one non-finite R (NaN exit on corrupt data)
# would silently NaN every aggregate below. Exclude loudly.
bad = [t for t in resolved if not np.isfinite(t.r_multiple)]
if bad:
logger.error(
"compute_metrics: excluding %d trade(s) with non-finite R "
"(corrupt exit data) — first at %s", len(bad), bad[0].entry_time)
resolved = [t for t in resolved if np.isfinite(t.r_multiple)]
if not resolved:
return Metrics(0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, {}, {}, {})
@@ -2232,10 +2109,6 @@ def _parse_args(argv: Optional[List[str]] = None) -> argparse.Namespace:
help="Override signals.trail_arm_r for this run (research knob)")
p.add_argument("--trail-dist", type=float, default=None,
help="Override signals.trail_dist_r for this run (research knob)")
p.add_argument("--fixed-rr-tp", type=float, default=None,
help="RESEARCH: exit at a hard TP of MULT x risk (e.g. 2.0 = "
"fixed 1:2 RR) instead of the trailing stop; "
"entries/stops/gates unchanged.")
p.add_argument("--quality", default="A+,A,B,C", help="Comma-separated allowed grades")
p.add_argument("--strategies", default="",
help="Comma-separated strategy tags to include (XAU,XAU_PB,XAU_CP,GENERIC). Empty = all.")
@@ -2359,16 +2232,6 @@ def main(argv: Optional[List[str]] = None) -> int:
# make_config; the fallback must match (live == backtest).
from app_config import apply_pair_overrides # noqa: E402
apply_pair_overrides(platform_cfg)
if args.fixed_rr_tp is not None:
if args.fixed_rr_tp <= 0:
raise SystemExit("--fixed-rr-tp must be > 0")
if (args.trail_arm is not None or args.trail_dist is not None or
any(s.split("=", 1)[0].strip().startswith(("signals.trail",
"signals.pb_trail"))
for s in (args.set or []))):
raise SystemExit(
"--fixed-rr-tp conflicts with --trail-arm/--trail-dist/"
"--set signals.*trail* (the flag disables trailing entirely)")
if args.swing_sr_lookback > 0:
platform_cfg.technical.swing_sr_lookback = args.swing_sr_lookback
if args.trail_arm is not None:
@@ -2415,7 +2278,6 @@ def main(argv: Optional[List[str]] = None) -> int:
strategies_only=[s.strip() for s in args.strategies.split(",") if s.strip()],
spread=spread,
workers=args.workers,
fixed_rr_tp=args.fixed_rr_tp or 0.0,
)
logger.info(
-178
View File
@@ -1,178 +0,0 @@
"""Commit-ladder campaign driver (2026-08).
Question: of all signal-code states shipped in the last two months, which
configuration is the most accurate? Historical in-era backtest numbers are
not comparable (the backtester's realism model changed on 07-08/07-16 and
the data feed switched to Oanda on 07-28), so every historical
configuration is recreated on TODAY's harness via --set overrides and
replayed on the same pinned Oanda bars. Bug-fix commits stay on; the
ladder compares shipped tuning decisions only.
Usage:
python backtest/research/commit_ladder.py # full matrix
python backtest/research/commit_ladder.py --tf 5min # one timeframe
python backtest/research/commit_ladder.py --windows 12mo,oos
Resumable: a run whose CSV already exists in the output dir is skipped.
Outputs: backtest/research/commit_ladder_2026-08/<variant>_<window>.csv
+ .log per run, summary.csv, and a printed ranking table.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import argparse
import subprocess
import sys
from pathlib import Path
import pandas as pd
ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[2]
BT = ROOT / "backtest" / "gpu_backtest.py"
OUT = ROOT / "backtest" / "research" / "commit_ladder_2026-08"
WINDOWS = {
"12mo": ("2025-07-30", "2026-07-30"),
"oos": ("2024-06-01", "2025-03-30"),
"5yr": ("2021-07-30", "2026-07-30"),
}
SPLIT_12MO = pd.Timestamp("2026-01-29", tz="UTC") # book_diff.py's split
# (variant, "commit date what-it-represents", [--set overrides])
VARIANTS: dict[str, list[tuple[str, str, list[str]]]] = {
"5min": [
("M5-A", "dad2432 07-09 gates+trailing+pullback",
["xau_strategy.blocked_hours_utc=[0,1,2,10,11,13,16,21]",
"xau_strategy.cp_enabled=false",
"signals.trail_dist_r=0.75",
"xau_strategy.m5_min_abs_score=30",
"xau_strategy.m5_min_confirmation_score=10"]),
("M5-B", "f3ba4d5 07-11 +hour-9 block",
["xau_strategy.blocked_hours_utc=[0,1,2,10,11,13,16,21,9]",
"xau_strategy.cp_enabled=false",
"signals.trail_dist_r=0.75",
"xau_strategy.m5_min_abs_score=30",
"xau_strategy.m5_min_confirmation_score=10"]),
("M5-C", "de6424e 07-16 +chart patterns",
["xau_strategy.blocked_hours_utc=[0,1,2,10,11,13,16,21,9]",
"signals.trail_dist_r=0.75",
"xau_strategy.m5_min_abs_score=30",
"xau_strategy.m5_min_confirmation_score=10"]),
("M5-D", "3ee79b5 07-21 +trail dist 0.85",
["xau_strategy.blocked_hours_utc=[0,1,2,10,11,13,16,21,9]",
"xau_strategy.m5_min_abs_score=30",
"xau_strategy.m5_min_confirmation_score=10"]),
("M5-E", "0396970 07-30 relaxation (HEAD)", []),
],
"15min": [
("M15-A", "987ec5b 07-09 pre-campaigns",
["signals.tp_floor_rr=0.5",
"xau_strategy.blocked_regimes=[]",
"xau_strategy.sell_blocked_hours_utc=[]",
"signals.trail_arm_r=0.60"]),
("M15-B", "f3ba4d5/f88e39f 07-11 1R floor + regime block",
["xau_strategy.sell_blocked_hours_utc=[]",
"signals.trail_arm_r=0.60"]),
("M15-C", "7d3fd95 07-16 +SELL hour 15/17 block",
["signals.trail_arm_r=0.60"]),
("M15-D", "bf8e5fb 07-21 trail arm 0.70 (HEAD)", []),
],
"1h": [
("H1-A", "pre-d95d31a 07-08 TP-tightening model",
["signals.min_rr_ratio=0.4",
"signals.tp_tightening_factor=0.8"]),
("H1-B", "HEAD", []),
],
}
def run_one(tf: str, name: str, overrides: list[str], wkey: str,
spread: str | None = None) -> Path:
suffix = f"_s{spread}" if spread else ""
csv_path = OUT / f"{name}_{wkey}{suffix}.csv"
log_path = OUT / f"{name}_{wkey}{suffix}.log"
if csv_path.exists():
print(f" [skip] {csv_path.name} exists")
return csv_path
start, end = WINDOWS[wkey]
cmd = [sys.executable, str(BT), "--pair", "XAUUSD",
"--primary-tf", tf, "--start", start, "--end", end,
"--export-csv", str(csv_path)]
if spread:
cmd += ["--spread", spread]
for ov in overrides:
cmd += ["--set", ov]
print(f" [run ] {csv_path.name} ...", flush=True)
with open(log_path, "w") as lf:
rc = subprocess.run(cmd, stdout=lf, stderr=subprocess.STDOUT,
cwd=ROOT).returncode
if rc != 0:
raise SystemExit(f"backtest failed (rc={rc}) — see {log_path}")
log = log_path.read_text()
n_ov = log.count("--set override")
if n_ov != len(overrides):
raise SystemExit(
f"{name}_{wkey}: expected {len(overrides)} --set overrides, "
f"log shows {n_ov} — see {log_path}")
if "Loading cached" not in log and wkey != "sanity":
print(f" [warn] {log_path.name}: no 'Loading cached' line — "
f"data was fetched live for at least one timeframe")
return csv_path
def metrics(csv_path: Path, wkey: str) -> dict:
df = pd.read_csv(csv_path, parse_dates=["entry_time"])
if df.empty:
return {"trades": 0, "total_r": 0.0, "wr": 0.0, "pf": 0.0,
"max_dd": 0.0, "h1_r": 0.0, "h2_r": 0.0, "years_pos": ""}
if df["entry_time"].dt.tz is None:
df["entry_time"] = df["entry_time"].dt.tz_localize("UTC")
r = df["r_multiple"]
pos, neg = r[r > 0].sum(), r[r < 0].sum()
cum = r.cumsum()
dd = (pd.concat([pd.Series([0.0]), cum]).cummax()[1:] - cum).max()
out = {
"trades": len(df),
"total_r": round(r.sum(), 1),
"wr": round((r > 0).mean() * 100, 1),
"pf": round(pos / abs(neg), 2) if neg else float("inf"),
"max_dd": round(dd, 1),
"h1_r": "", "h2_r": "", "years_pos": "",
}
if wkey == "12mo":
h1 = r[df["entry_time"] < SPLIT_12MO].sum()
out["h1_r"] = round(h1, 1)
out["h2_r"] = round(r.sum() - h1, 1)
if wkey == "5yr":
by_year = r.groupby(df["entry_time"].dt.year).sum()
out["years_pos"] = f"{(by_year > 0).sum()}/{len(by_year)}"
return out
def main() -> None:
ap = argparse.ArgumentParser()
ap.add_argument("--tf", choices=list(VARIANTS), default=None)
ap.add_argument("--windows", default="12mo,oos,5yr")
args = ap.parse_args()
OUT.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
wkeys = [w.strip() for w in args.windows.split(",")]
tfs = [args.tf] if args.tf else list(VARIANTS)
rows = []
for tf in tfs:
for name, label, overrides in VARIANTS[tf]:
for wkey in wkeys:
csv_path = run_one(tf, name, overrides, wkey)
m = metrics(csv_path, wkey)
rows.append({"tf": tf, "variant": name, "represents": label,
"window": wkey, **m})
print(f" {name} {wkey}: {m['trades']} trades, "
f"{m['total_r']}R, PF {m['pf']}, WR {m['wr']}%")
summary = pd.DataFrame(rows)
summary.to_csv(OUT / "summary.csv", index=False)
print("\n=== SUMMARY (also in summary.csv) ===")
print(summary.to_string(index=False))
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()
-123
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@@ -1,123 +0,0 @@
# Fixed-RR hard-TP vs shipped trailing exit — research campaign 2026-08-05
**Verdict: DO NOT SHIP. The trailing exit stays.** The fixed 2R target beats the trail on
total R in every 2024+ window but the edge is a trend-regime artifact: it inverts in the
2021–2023 ranging years, doubles drawdown, cuts win rate 10–19 points, and doubles hold
times (amplifying the accepted live one-position divergence). Details below.
## Setup
- Code: HEAD `fc5ce85` + the `--fixed-rr-tp` research flag (uncommitted at run time).
The flag replaces every trade's TP with `mult × |entry − sl|` AFTER re-anchoring and
disables trailing (run-level and per-trade PB params) — entries, stops, gates, and the
cooldown pass are untouched, so both arms replay **trade-identical books** (verified:
paired join on entry_time+direction matches 1:1 in every window). Only the exit policy
differs → per-trade paired comparison.
- Provider: Oanda (cache-warm; keys `oanda_XAU_USD_{5min,15min,1h}_{20250603_20260804,
20240331_20250330,20210531_20260804}`). Charged cost `--spread 0.65` (real measured
round trip); $0.30 letter-cost books derived analytically as `r + 0.35/risk` and
verified exact against one real `--spread 0.30` run (max per-trade error 1.8e-15 —
spread never enters trigger detection, per the owner-declined 2026-08-04 decision).
- Control sanity gate: fresh M5 12mo control reproduced the pinned HEAD reference
exactly — 555 trades, +98.64R, PF 1.483, maxDD −10.73R.
- Commands (control = same without the flag):
`venv/bin/python backtest/gpu_backtest.py --pair XAUUSD --primary-tf {5min,15min}
--start 2025-08-04 --end 2026-08-04 --spread 0.65 [--fixed-rr-tp 2.0]
--export-csv backtest/fixedtp_*.csv`
OOS `--start 2024-06-01 --end 2025-03-30`; 5yr `--start 2021-08-01 --end 2026-08-04`.
- Books pinned as `backtest/fixedtp_{m5,m15}_{12mo,oos,5yr}_{ctrl,rr20,...}.csv`
(per-trade indicator breakdown, agreement counts, regime, vol-regime, weekday,
MAE/MFE, bars-held — the full instructions_for_backtest record).
## Headline (@ $0.65)
| Window | Arm | n | R | PF | WR | maxDD | recov | medBars | exits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M5 12mo | trail | 555 | +98.64 | 1.483 | 52.4% | −10.7 | 9.2 | 28 | TRAIL 361 / SL 183 / TO 11 |
| M5 12mo | 2R hard | 555 | +124.85 | 1.378 | 42.9% | −24.5 | 5.1 | 50 | SL 312 / TP1 210 / TO 33 |
| M15 12mo | trail | 397 | +73.93 | 1.525 | 62.2% | −10.8 | 6.8 | 28 | TRAIL 255 / SL 135 / TO 7 |
| M15 12mo | 2R hard | 397 | +95.95 | 1.431 | 44.3% | −11.2 | 8.6 | 39 | SL 215 / TP1 151 / TO 31 |
| M5 OOS | trail | 86 | +9.45 | 1.332 | 53.5% | −8.2 | 1.2 | 70 | — |
| M5 OOS | 2R hard | 86 | +18.83 | 1.407 | 45.3% | −9.7 | 1.9 | 124 | — |
| M15 OOS | trail | 299 | +38.77 | 1.360 | 59.2% | −15.5 | 2.5 | 38 | — |
| M15 OOS | 2R hard | 299 | +72.14 | 1.435 | 45.2% | −13.9 | 5.2 | 82 | — |
Halves (12mo, split 2026-02-03): M5 rr20 +67.99/+56.86 (both positive; H2 PF 1.325 vs
ctrl 1.503), M15 rr20 +73.74/+22.21 (both positive; ctrl H2 +7.23 — the known H2-flat).
At $0.30 all deltas keep the same sign (e.g. M5 12mo +109.0 vs +135.2).
So the **letter** of rule 1 passes for rr20 on both TFs. The 5yr decomposition is why it
still must not ship.
## Exit migration (paired, M5 12mo; same pattern everywhere)
- SL→SL 183 trades: ΔR 0 (identical by construction — stops untouched).
- TRAIL→TP1 207 trades: +248.9R → +424.5R (**+175.6R**) — winners the trail exits early.
- TRAIL→SL 129 trades: +19.0R → −136.8R (**−155.7R**) — retraces the trail survives
become full stop-outs.
- TRAIL→TIMEOUT 25: +7.4R. Net = +26.2R. The whole effect is these two big flows nearly
cancelling; which one wins is a regime property, not an exit-policy edge.
- Trades with ctrl MFE ≥ 2R: 95; hard cap forfeits only +10.4R vs trail on M5 (the trail
already gives ~0.75R back from peak, so a 2R cap costs little *in a trend*).
## Mini-grid (12mo @ $0.65) — the tell
| mult | M5 R / PF / DD | M15 R / PF / DD |
|---|---|---|
| trail | +98.6 / 1.483 / −10.7 | +73.9 / 1.525 / −10.8 |
| 1.0R | +52.5 / 1.205 / −12.8 | +67.1 / 1.410 / −7.3 |
| 1.5R | +80.7 / 1.263 / −21.4 | +66.9 / 1.325 / −11.2 |
| 2.0R | +124.9 / 1.378 / −24.5 | +96.0 / 1.431 / −11.2 |
| 2.5R | +147.7 / 1.426 / −23.6 | +110.4 / 1.469 / −15.9 |
| 3.0R | +155.8 / 1.432 / −21.6 | +135.8 / 1.562 / −17.5 |
Monotone in the multiple on both TFs — "2.0" is not an optimum, it's a point on a curve
that says *never take profit* (3R's M5 TIMEOUT bucket alone is +84.8R). That is the
signature of a one-way trend sample, not of a superior exit rule. It also reconfirms the
original finding that SHORT fixed targets (≤1.5R) are strictly bad (cf. RR-0.5 removal,
`config.py:126-133`: +48R → +105R).
## 5yr regime decomposition (2021-08-01 → 2026-08-04 @ $0.65) — the verdict
M15 (real sample in every year): ctrl +127.97 PF 1.209 DD −35.8; rr20 +158.97 PF 1.170
DD **−59.8**; rr30 +204.03 PF 1.203 DD **−98.3**.
| Year | n | trail | 2R hard | 3R hard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 88 | **+4.00** | −16.09 | −17.41 |
| 2022 | 284 | −9.54 | −7.63 | −26.74 |
| 2023 | 227 | **+7.79** | −1.71 | −5.81 |
| 2024 | 345 | +40.44 | +64.98 | +89.14 |
| 2025 | 405 | +49.33 | +69.39 | +104.42 |
| 2026 | 229 | +35.95 | +50.04 | +60.43 |
M5 5yr mirrors it (ctrl +128.4 PF 1.387 DD −12.8 vs rr20 +160.2 PF 1.306 DD −24.7;
2022: −1.1 vs −5.2), though pre-2024 M5 samples are thin (12–60 trades/yr).
The hard target's entire outperformance lives in the 2024–2026 gold trend. In ranging
years it flips sign exactly where the trail stays positive (M15 2021, 2023), and the
further the target, the worse the ranging-year bleed and the deeper the DD. The 12mo,
halves, and OOS windows all sit inside the trend era, which is why the rule-1 letter
passes — this is precisely the within-regime-split trap rule 1's OOS clause exists to
catch, one level up.
## Additional non-ship reasons
- **Live divergence grows with hold time.** Median hold doubles (M5 28→50 bars; OOS
70→124). The daemon holds one position total; the backtester doesn't model that
blocking. Longer holds = more live signals skipped that the paper book banks.
- **WR 52→43% (M5) / 62→44% (M15), max loss streak 6→11 (M15)** — materially harder to
operate and size.
- Aggregate tables (session/day/regime/vol, streaks, quarterly equity, rolling-20 WR)
computed and consistent — no bucket reverses the conclusion; both arms' 12mo profit is
concentrated in Q1-2026 (+87.7 ctrl / +102.0 rr20).
## Status
- `--fixed-rr-tp` stays as a documented research-only flag (default off; conflicts with
`--trail-arm/--trail-dist/--set signals.*trail*` are hard errors). Module 22 tests
(5) pin the override math, TP fill + spread, SL-first tie, PB-trail-disable, and CLI
guards. Full suite: 346 green.
- Re-open only if gold's regime turns and a *regime-conditional* exit (trail in range,
target in trend) is proposed with a pre-registered mechanism — a plain fixed ratio is
now a closed hypothesis at every multiple in {0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, 2.5, 3.0}.
-697
View File
@@ -1,697 +0,0 @@
"""
DeepSeek news-analysis validation harness — XAU/USD.
====================================================
Research-only (no production code changes). Answers: is the DeepSeek
layer's news analysis *correct*?
Part A (events): replays every high-impact USD release with a genuine
surprise (2024-01 → 2026-07, from backtest/cache/calendar.parquet)
through the REAL `NewsEngine._llm_event_direction` — real prompt, real
payload, real validation — and scores its "gold bullish/bearish" calls
against gold's actual move (Oanda M15 mids) at +15m/30m/1h/4h/24h.
Baselines: mechanical surprise-sign doctrine, FF actualBetterWorse,
always-bullish/bearish (2024-26 is a gold bull regime), coin flip.
Part B (headlines): a curated golden set (llm_news_golden.csv) through
the REAL `NewsEngine._llm_headline_scores` in production-sized batches,
vs the keyword scorer it overrides. Includes repeat-batch (determinism)
and shuffled-order (cross-contamination) probes.
Implementation notes that keep the replay faithful to production:
* `_llm_event_direction`/`_llm_headline_scores` resolve the client via
`get_llm_client()`, so we seed the module singleton with a research
client (raised daily cap: 586 events > production cap 500).
* The event cache key omits the forecast, so a repeat `actual` would
silently re-serve a direction computed for a different forecast —
the cache is cleared before every call.
* A "neutral" reply and a hard failure both return None; they are
disambiguated by reading the event cache back after the call
(absent = failure, "" = neutral, "bullish:/bearish: …" = call).
* Raw request/response bytes are captured with a requests response
hook — the request-building code path is untouched.
Usage (from repo root):
venv/bin/python backtest/research/llm_news_eval.py events --limit 5
venv/bin/python backtest/research/llm_news_eval.py events --determinism 20
venv/bin/python backtest/research/llm_news_eval.py headlines
venv/bin/python backtest/research/llm_news_eval.py report
Artifacts land in backtest/research/llm_news_eval_2026-08/ (JSONL replay
logs are resume-safe: completed events are never re-paid). `report` is a
pure offline function of the artifacts.
"""
import argparse
import json
import math
import random
import sys
import time
from datetime import datetime, timezone
from pathlib import Path
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
REPO_ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[2]
sys.path.insert(0, str(REPO_ROOT))
import llm_client
from app_config import deepseek_api_key, get_app_config
from config import NewsConfig
from llm_client import DEFAULT_MODEL, DeepSeekClient
from news_engine import EconomicEvent, NewsEngine
RESEARCH_DIR = Path(__file__).parent
ART_DIR = RESEARCH_DIR / "llm_news_eval_2026-08"
CALENDAR = REPO_ROOT / "backtest" / "cache" / "calendar.parquet"
BARS = (REPO_ROOT / "backtest" / "cache" /
"oanda_XAU_USD_15min_20210531_20260804.parquet")
GOLDEN = RESEARCH_DIR / "llm_news_golden.csv"
EVENTS_JSONL = ART_DIR / "events_replay.jsonl"
HEADLINES_JSONL = ART_DIR / "headlines_replay.jsonl"
SCORED_CSV = ART_DIR / "events_scored.csv"
HORIZONS = [("15m", 15), ("30m", 30), ("1h", 60), ("4h", 240),
("24h", 1440)]
NEUTRAL_BAND = 0.15 # |xau| below this = neutral prediction (Part B)
BATCH_CAP = 25 # production batch cap (news_engine.py:783)
EXPECTED_CORPUS = 586
# ── shared plumbing ──────────────────────────────────────────────────
class _Recorder:
"""requests response hook capturing the exact wire traffic."""
def __init__(self):
self.last = None
def hook(self, resp, **kwargs):
body = resp.request.body
if isinstance(body, bytes):
body = body.decode("utf-8", "replace")
self.last = {
"request_body": body,
"http_status": resp.status_code,
"response_body": resp.text,
"elapsed_s": round(resp.elapsed.total_seconds(), 3),
}
return resp
def pop(self):
cap, self.last = self.last, None
return cap or {}
def install_research_client(timeout: float):
"""Build a research DeepSeekClient (raised cap) and seed the module
singleton so the production code paths use it. Returns (client,
recorder)."""
app = get_app_config()
key = deepseek_api_key(app)
ds = app.deepseek_settings
if not key:
sys.exit("No DeepSeek API key (env DEEPSEEK_API_KEY or "
"config.json deepseek.api_key) — aborting before spend.")
if ds.get("enabled") is False:
sys.exit("deepseek.enabled is false in config.json — aborting.")
client = DeepSeekClient(
api_key=key,
model=str(ds.get("model", DEFAULT_MODEL)),
timeout=timeout,
daily_cap=10 ** 6, # research: corpus 586 > production cap 500
)
rec = _Recorder()
client._session.hooks["response"].append(rec.hook)
with llm_client._client_lock:
llm_client._client = client
return client, rec
def _s(x):
"""Parquet str columns carry float NaN — EconomicEvent needs None."""
return None if pd.isna(x) else str(x)
def load_corpus():
"""High-impact USD releases with a genuine surprise, through the
production `EconomicEvent.surprise` gate. Asserts run before any
API spend."""
df = pd.read_parquet(CALENDAR)
df = df[(df["impactName"] == "high") & (df["currency"] == "USD")]
rows = []
for r in df.itertuples():
ev = EconomicEvent(
time=datetime.fromtimestamp(int(r.dateline), tz=timezone.utc),
currency="USD", impact="high", event=_s(r.name) or "",
forecast=_s(r.forecast), previous=_s(r.previous),
actual=_s(r.actual),
)
if ev.surprise not in ("positive", "negative"):
continue
rows.append({
"ffid": int(r.id), "dateline": int(r.dateline),
"utc_time": ev.time.isoformat(), "name": ev.event,
"actual": ev.actual, "forecast": ev.forecast,
"previous": ev.previous, "surprise": ev.surprise,
"better_worse": int(r.actualBetterWorse), "ev": ev,
})
ids = [d["ffid"] for d in rows]
if len(rows) != EXPECTED_CORPUS:
sys.exit(f"corpus size {len(rows)} != {EXPECTED_CORPUS} — "
"calendar.parquet changed; re-verify before spending.")
if len(set(ids)) != len(ids):
sys.exit("FF ids not unique — resume keying would break.")
# Pin the actualBetterWorse mapping on two unambiguous NFP prints.
nfp = {d["utc_time"][:10]: d["better_worse"] for d in rows
if d["name"] == "Non-Farm Employment Change"}
if nfp.get("2024-01-05") != 1 or nfp.get("2024-05-03") != 2:
sys.exit("actualBetterWorse mapping pins failed (expected "
"1=better-for-USD on 2024-01-05 beat, 2=worse on "
"2024-05-03 miss).")
rows.sort(key=lambda d: (d["dateline"], d["ffid"]))
return rows
def _load_jsonl(path: Path):
recs = []
if path.exists():
with open(path) as f:
for line in f:
line = line.strip()
if line:
recs.append(json.loads(line))
return recs
# ── Part A: event replay ─────────────────────────────────────────────
def _extract_reason(cap):
try:
content = json.loads(cap["response_body"])[
"choices"][0]["message"]["content"]
return json.loads(content).get("reason")
except Exception:
return None
def cmd_events(args):
ART_DIR.mkdir(exist_ok=True)
corpus = load_corpus()
if args.limit:
corpus = corpus[:args.limit]
engine = NewsEngine(NewsConfig())
existing = _load_jsonl(EVENTS_JSONL)
done1 = {r["ffid"] for r in existing
if r.get("run_pass") == 1 and r.get("llm_direction")}
done2 = {r["ffid"] for r in existing
if r.get("run_pass") == 2 and r.get("llm_direction")}
pending = [d for d in corpus if d["ffid"] not in done1]
print(f"corpus {len(corpus)} | already recorded {len(done1)} | "
f"pending {len(pending)} | determinism re-calls "
f"{args.determinism} | model calls are ~100 tokens each "
f"(deepseek-v4-flash, static-prefix cached) → cost ≈ cents")
if not pending and not args.determinism:
print("nothing to do")
return
_, rec = install_research_client(args.timeout)
out = open(EVENTS_JSONL, "a")
def call_one(d, run_pass):
# Cache key omits forecast → cleared per call so 196 colliding
# corpus rows can't be served a stale direction.
with NewsEngine._cache_lock:
NewsEngine._llm_event_cache.clear()
ev = d["ev"]
engine._llm_event_direction(ev)
key = (ev.event, ev.currency, str(ev.actual or ""))
with NewsEngine._cache_lock:
cached = NewsEngine._llm_event_cache.get(key)
cap = rec.pop()
if cached is None:
direction, text = None, None # hard failure → retry
elif cached == "":
direction, text = "neutral", ""
else:
direction, text = cached.split(":", 1)[0], cached
recd = {k: d[k] for k in (
"ffid", "dateline", "utc_time", "name", "actual", "forecast",
"previous", "surprise", "better_worse")}
recd.update({
"llm_direction": direction, "llm_text": text,
"reason_raw": _extract_reason(cap), "run_pass": run_pass,
"ts": datetime.now(timezone.utc).isoformat(), **cap,
})
out.write(json.dumps(recd) + "\n")
out.flush()
return direction
remaining = pending
for npass in range(1, args.retry_passes + 1):
if not remaining:
break
failed = []
for i, d in enumerate(remaining):
if call_one(d, 1) is None:
failed.append(d)
if args.sleep:
time.sleep(args.sleep)
if (i + 1) % 25 == 0:
print(f" pass {npass}: {i + 1}/{len(remaining)} "
f"({len(failed)} failed)")
print(f"pass {npass} done: {len(remaining) - len(failed)} ok, "
f"{len(failed)} failed")
remaining = failed
if remaining:
print(f"WARNING: {len(remaining)} events still unrecorded after "
f"{args.retry_passes} passes — re-run `events` to resume.")
if args.determinism:
ok_ids = {x["ffid"] for x in remaining}
done_now = [d for d in corpus if d["ffid"] not in ok_ids]
done_now.sort(key=lambda d: (d["name"], d["dateline"]))
stride = max(1, len(done_now) // args.determinism)
sample = done_now[::stride][:args.determinism]
todo = [d for d in sample if d["ffid"] not in done2]
print(f"determinism probe: {len(todo)} re-calls "
f"({len(sample) - len(todo)} already recorded)")
for d in todo:
call_one(d, 2)
if args.sleep:
time.sleep(args.sleep)
out.close()
print("events replay complete →", EVENTS_JSONL)
# ── Part B: golden headlines ─────────────────────────────────────────
def _load_golden():
g = pd.read_csv(GOLDEN)
need = {"headline", "category", "expected_xau_sign", "rationale"}
if not need <= set(g.columns):
sys.exit(f"golden CSV missing columns {need - set(g.columns)}")
if not g["expected_xau_sign"].isin([-1, 0, 1]).all():
sys.exit("expected_xau_sign must be -1/0/+1")
if not g["headline"].is_unique:
sys.exit("duplicate headlines in golden CSV")
return g
def cmd_headlines(args):
ART_DIR.mkdir(exist_ok=True)
g = _load_golden()
heads = list(g["headline"])
_, rec = install_research_client(args.timeout)
engine = NewsEngine(NewsConfig())
out = open(HEADLINES_JSONL, "w") # tiny (~9 calls): fresh each run
def run_batch(texts, tag, batch_idx):
scores = None
for attempt in range(3):
scores = engine._llm_headline_scores(texts)
cap = rec.pop()
if scores is not None:
break
print(f" {tag} batch {batch_idx} attempt {attempt + 1} "
f"failed (http {cap.get('http_status')})")
time.sleep(2.0)
out.write(json.dumps({
"run_tag": tag, "batch": batch_idx, "headlines": texts,
"scores": scores,
"ts": datetime.now(timezone.utc).isoformat(), **cap,
}) + "\n")
out.flush()
return scores
batches = [heads[i:i + BATCH_CAP] for i in range(0, len(heads),
BATCH_CAP)]
for bi, b in enumerate(batches):
ok = run_batch(b, "main", bi) is not None
print(f"main batch {bi} ({len(b)} headlines): "
f"{'ok' if ok else 'FAILED'}")
time.sleep(args.sleep)
run_batch(batches[0], "repeat", 0)
print("repeat probe done")
shuffled = heads[:]
random.Random(20260806).shuffle(shuffled)
for bi in range(0, len(shuffled), BATCH_CAP):
run_batch(shuffled[bi:bi + BATCH_CAP], "shuffled",
bi // BATCH_CAP)
print("shuffled probe done →", HEADLINES_JSONL)
out.close()
# ── report: pure offline function of the artifacts ───────────────────
def _binom_p(k, n):
"""Exact two-sided binomial p-value vs p=0.5 (no scipy)."""
if n == 0:
return float("nan")
dist = [math.comb(n, i) for i in range(n + 1)]
tot = float(2 ** n)
pk = dist[k]
return min(1.0, sum(c for c in dist if c <= pk) / tot)
def _mcnemar_p(hit_a, hit_b):
"""Exact McNemar via binomial on discordant pairs. Inputs: aligned
boolean lists."""
b = sum(1 for x, y in zip(hit_a, hit_b) if x and not y)
c = sum(1 for x, y in zip(hit_a, hit_b) if not x and y)
return b, c, _binom_p(min(b, c), b + c)
def _latest_events(recs):
"""Last pass-1 record per ffid (retries append; last wins)."""
out = {}
for r in recs:
if r.get("run_pass") == 1:
out[r["ffid"]] = r
return list(out.values())
def _fmt_rate(hits, n, label=""):
if n == 0:
return f"{label:<24} n=0"
p = _binom_p(hits, n)
return (f"{label:<24} {hits:>4}/{n:<4} = {hits / n * 100:5.1f}% "
f"(binom p={p:.3f})")
def report_events():
recs = _latest_events(_load_jsonl(EVENTS_JSONL))
if not recs:
print("no event replay records — run `events` first")
return
bars = pd.read_parquet(BARS)
closes = bars["Close"].to_numpy()
close_ns = (bars.index + pd.Timedelta(minutes=15)).asi8
def anchor(t_ns, h_min):
i = np.searchsorted(close_ns, t_ns, side="right") - 1
if i < 0:
return None
stale_ns = max(45.0, h_min / 4.0) * 60e9
if t_ns - close_ns[i] > stale_ns:
return None
return closes[i]
rows, skip = [], {h: 0 for h, _ in HORIZONS}
base_skipped = 0
for r in recs:
t_ns = int(r["dateline"]) * 10 ** 9
base = anchor(t_ns, 0)
if base is None:
base_skipped += 1
continue
row = dict(r)
row.pop("request_body", None)
row.pop("response_body", None)
row["year"] = r["utc_time"][:4]
row["base"] = base
for hname, hmin in HORIZONS:
p = anchor(t_ns + hmin * 60 * 10 ** 9, hmin)
if p is None:
skip[hname] += 1
row[f"d_{hname}"] = np.nan
else:
row[f"d_{hname}"] = p - base
rows.append(row)
df = pd.DataFrame(rows)
df.to_csv(SCORED_CSV, index=False)
n_fail = int((df["llm_direction"].isna()).sum())
print("═" * 70)
print("PART A — event gold-direction vs actual XAU move")
print("═" * 70)
print(f"events replayed: {len(df)} (baseline-price skipped: "
f"{base_skipped}) | LLM hard failures: {n_fail}")
print("horizon skip counts (stale/closed):",
{k: v for k, v in skip.items() if v})
dist = df["llm_direction"].value_counts(dropna=False).to_dict()
print("LLM call distribution:", dist)
# Unconditional per-horizon noise scale (null): median |Δ| over all
# 2024+ bar times, position-shifted.
bars24 = bars[bars.index >= "2024-01-01"]
null_med = {}
for hname, hmin in HORIZONS:
k = hmin // 15
d = (bars24["Close"].shift(-k) - bars24["Close"]).abs().dropna()
null_med[hname] = float(d.median())
print("unconditional null median |Δ| ($):",
{k: round(v, 2) for k, v in null_med.items()})
# Strategy call columns: +1 gold up, −1 gold down, 0/NaN excluded.
df["c_llm"] = df["llm_direction"].map(
{"bullish": 1, "bearish": -1}).fillna(0)
df["c_doctrine"] = df["surprise"].map({"positive": -1, "negative": 1})
df["c_ffbw"] = df["better_worse"].map({1: -1, 2: 1}).fillna(0)
df["c_bull"] = 1
df["c_bear"] = -1
strategies = [("LLM", "c_llm"), ("doctrine(surprise)", "c_doctrine"),
("FF betterWorse", "c_ffbw"), ("always-bullish", "c_bull"),
("always-bearish", "c_bear")]
for hname, _ in HORIZONS:
dcol = f"d_{hname}"
sub = df[df[dcol].notna()]
print(f"\n── horizon {hname} (n scored bars={len(sub)}) ──")
zeros = int((sub[dcol] == 0).sum())
if zeros:
print(f" Δ==0 count (scored as miss): {zeros}")
for label, col in strategies:
s = sub[sub[col] != 0]
hits = int((np.sign(s[dcol]) == s[col]).sum())
print(" " + _fmt_rate(hits, len(s), label))
# noise-filtered LLM hit rate
s = sub[(sub["c_llm"] != 0) &
(sub[dcol].abs() >= null_med[hname])]
hits = int((np.sign(s[dcol]) == s["c_llm"]).sum())
print(" " + _fmt_rate(hits, len(s),
f"LLM |Δ|≥null-med"))
# event-window magnitude vs null
mag = sub[dcol].abs().median()
print(f" event-window median |Δ| = ${mag:.2f} "
f"(null ${null_med[hname]:.2f})")
# paired McNemar: LLM vs each baseline on common directional set
for label, col in [("doctrine", "c_doctrine"),
("FF betterWorse", "c_ffbw"),
("always-bullish", "c_bull")]:
s = sub[(sub["c_llm"] != 0) & (sub[col] != 0)]
ha = list(np.sign(s[dcol]) == s["c_llm"])
hb = list(np.sign(s[dcol]) == s[col])
b, c, p = _mcnemar_p(ha, hb)
print(f" McNemar LLM vs {label:<15} b={b:>3} c={c:>3} "
f"p={p:.3f}")
# neutral-call flatness (15m)
neu = df[(df["llm_direction"] == "neutral") & df["d_15m"].notna()]
dire = df[(df["c_llm"] != 0) & df["d_15m"].notna()]
if len(neu):
print(f"\nneutral calls (n={len(neu)}): median |Δ_15m| "
f"${neu['d_15m'].abs().median():.2f} vs directional "
f"(n={len(dire)}) ${dire['d_15m'].abs().median():.2f} "
f"(null ${null_med['15m']:.2f})")
# breakdowns at 1h
dcol = "d_1h"
sub = df[df[dcol].notna() & (df["c_llm"] != 0)]
print("\n── LLM hit rate by event name (1h, top 10 by count) ──")
for name, grp in sorted(sub.groupby("name"), key=lambda kv: -len(kv[1]))[:10]:
hits = int((np.sign(grp[dcol]) == grp["c_llm"]).sum())
print(" " + _fmt_rate(hits, len(grp), name[:24]))
print("── LLM hit rate by year (1h) ──")
for yr, grp in sub.groupby("year"):
hits = int((np.sign(grp[dcol]) == grp["c_llm"]).sum())
print(" " + _fmt_rate(hits, len(grp), yr))
# cluster view: shared datelines
print("\n── same-timestamp clusters ──")
clus = df.groupby("dateline").filter(lambda g: len(g) > 1)
groups = list(clus.groupby("dateline"))
consistent = 0
net_hits, net_n = 0, 0
for _, g in groups:
signs = set(g.loc[g["c_llm"] != 0, "c_llm"])
if len(signs) <= 1:
consistent += 1
net = int(g["c_llm"].sum())
d = g["d_1h"].iloc[0]
if net != 0 and pd.notna(d) and d != 0:
net_n += 1
if np.sign(d) == np.sign(net):
net_hits += 1
print(f"clusters: {len(groups)} datelines "
f"({len(clus)} events, {len(clus) / max(len(df), 1) * 100:.0f}% of "
f"corpus) | internally consistent: {consistent}/{len(groups)}")
print(" " + _fmt_rate(net_hits, net_n, "cluster net-call (1h)"))
# determinism probe
p2 = {r["ffid"]: r for r in _load_jsonl(EVENTS_JSONL)
if r.get("run_pass") == 2 and r.get("llm_direction")}
if p2:
p1 = {r["ffid"]: r for r in recs}
agree = same_reason = n = 0
for fid, r2 in p2.items():
r1 = p1.get(fid)
if not r1 or not r1.get("llm_direction"):
continue
n += 1
if r1["llm_direction"] == r2["llm_direction"]:
agree += 1
if r1.get("reason_raw") == r2.get("reason_raw"):
same_reason += 1
print(f"\ndeterminism probe: direction agreement {agree}/{n}, "
f"identical reason text {same_reason}/{n}")
# stratified reason examples
print("\n── reason samples (1h hit/miss) ──")
sub = df[df[dcol].notna() & (df["c_llm"] != 0)].copy()
sub["hit"] = np.sign(sub[dcol]) == sub["c_llm"]
for verdict in (True, False):
picked, seen = [], set()
for _, r in sub[sub["hit"] == verdict].iterrows():
if r["name"] in seen:
continue
seen.add(r["name"])
picked.append(r)
if len(picked) == 10:
break
tag = "HIT " if verdict else "MISS"
for r in picked:
print(f" [{tag}] {r['utc_time'][:16]} {r['name'][:30]:<30} "
f"a={r['actual']} f={r['forecast']} → "
f"{r['llm_direction']:<7} Δ1h={r[dcol]:+7.2f} "
f"“{(r['reason_raw'] or '')[:60]}”")
print(f"\nscored table → {SCORED_CSV}")
def report_headlines():
recs = _load_jsonl(HEADLINES_JSONL)
if not recs:
print("\n(no headline replay records — run `headlines` first)")
return
g = _load_golden()
engine = NewsEngine(NewsConfig())
def collect(tag):
m = {}
for r in recs:
if r["run_tag"] == tag and r["scores"]:
for h, sc in zip(r["headlines"], r["scores"]):
m[h] = tuple(sc)
return m
main, shuf = collect("main"), collect("shuffled")
print("\n" + "═" * 70)
print("PART B — golden headline set: LLM vs keyword baseline")
print("═" * 70)
missing = [h for h in g["headline"] if h not in main]
if missing:
print(f"WARNING: {len(missing)} headlines missing from main run")
def cls(x):
if x >= NEUTRAL_BAND:
return 1
if x <= -NEUTRAL_BAND:
return -1
return 0
rows = []
for _, r in g.iterrows():
h = r["headline"]
if h not in main:
continue
llm_xau = main[h][1]
kw = engine._analyze_headline_sentiment(h, for_currency="XAU")
rows.append({
"headline": h, "category": r["category"],
"exp": int(r["expected_xau_sign"]),
"llm_xau": llm_xau, "llm_cls": cls(llm_xau),
"kw": kw, "kw_cls": cls(kw),
})
t = pd.DataFrame(rows)
for who in ("llm", "kw"):
acc = (t[f"{who}_cls"] == t["exp"]).mean()
print(f"{who.upper():<4} 3-class accuracy (band ±{NEUTRAL_BAND}): "
f"{(t[f'{who}_cls'] == t['exp']).sum()}/{len(t)} "
f"= {acc * 100:.1f}%")
ha = list(t["llm_cls"] == t["exp"])
hb = list(t["kw_cls"] == t["exp"])
b, c, p = _mcnemar_p(ha, hb)
print(f"paired McNemar LLM vs keyword: b={b} c={c} p={p:.3f}")
print("\nper-category accuracy (LLM | keyword):")
for cat, grp in t.groupby("category"):
a1 = (grp["llm_cls"] == grp["exp"]).sum()
a2 = (grp["kw_cls"] == grp["exp"]).sum()
print(f" {cat:<18} {a1:>2}/{len(grp):<2} | {a2:>2}/{len(grp)}")
print("\nLLM confusion (rows=expected, cols=predicted -1/0/+1):")
cm = pd.crosstab(t["exp"], t["llm_cls"]).reindex(
index=[-1, 0, 1], columns=[-1, 0, 1], fill_value=0)
print(cm.to_string())
print("\nLLM misclassified headlines:")
for _, r in t[t["llm_cls"] != t["exp"]].iterrows():
print(f" exp {r['exp']:+d} got {r['llm_xau']:+.2f} "
f"[{r['category']}] {r['headline'][:70]}")
# repeat-batch determinism
m_b0 = [r for r in recs if r["run_tag"] == "main" and r["batch"] == 0]
r_b0 = [r for r in recs if r["run_tag"] == "repeat"]
if m_b0 and r_b0 and m_b0[0]["scores"] and r_b0[0]["scores"]:
a = np.array(m_b0[0]["scores"], dtype=float)
b_ = np.array(r_b0[0]["scores"], dtype=float)
exact = int((a == b_).all(axis=1).sum())
print(f"\nrepeat-batch: {exact}/{len(a)} score pairs identical, "
f"max |diff| = {np.abs(a - b_).max():.3f}")
# shuffled-order drift
if shuf:
both = [h for h in t["headline"] if h in shuf]
drift = [abs(main[h][1] - shuf[h][1]) for h in both]
if drift:
print(f"shuffled-order xau drift over {len(both)} headlines: "
f"mean {np.mean(drift):.3f}, max {np.max(drift):.3f}")
def cmd_report(args):
report_events()
report_headlines()
# ── CLI ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
def main():
ap = argparse.ArgumentParser(description=__doc__.split("\n")[1])
sub = ap.add_subparsers(dest="cmd", required=True)
e = sub.add_parser("events", help="replay release surprises")
e.add_argument("--limit", type=int, default=0,
help="smoke-test on first N events")
e.add_argument("--determinism", type=int, default=0,
help="re-call N stratified events a second time")
e.add_argument("--sleep", type=float, default=0.3)
e.add_argument("--retry-passes", type=int, default=3)
e.add_argument("--timeout", type=float, default=30.0)
e.set_defaults(fn=cmd_events)
h = sub.add_parser("headlines", help="golden-set probes")
h.add_argument("--sleep", type=float, default=0.3)
h.add_argument("--timeout", type=float, default=30.0)
h.set_defaults(fn=cmd_headlines)
r = sub.add_parser("report", help="offline scoring report")
r.set_defaults(fn=cmd_report)
args = ap.parse_args()
args.fn(args)
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()
@@ -1,86 +0,0 @@
# DeepSeek news-analysis validation — 2026-08-06
**Verdict: headline sentiment scoring is excellent; event-direction calls are
directionally sound but ~11% of them misread the numeric comparison, and the
failure concentrates on Unemployment Claims / close K-M-suffixed values.**
Method (owner-directed, token-lean): independent expert re-analysis of a
stratified sample of DeepSeek's recorded answers, not a full statistical
backtest. Harness: `backtest/research/llm_news_eval.py` (replays releases
through the REAL `_llm_event_direction` / `_llm_headline_scores` — real
prompts, payloads, validation; raw wire traffic logged). 135 of the 586-event
corpus were replayed before the full run was stopped by owner request
(artifacts retained in `llm_news_eval_2026-08/`, resume-safe).
## Part A — event gold-direction (28-event stratified sample, Jan–Jun 2024)
Reviewer agreement with DeepSeek: **24/28 (86%)**. All 4 disagreements are
DeepSeek errors, in exactly two failure modes:
1. **Numeric comparison misread (3/28 ≈ 11%)** — the doctrine logic is right
but the premise is backwards:
- JOLTS 8.79M vs f 8.84M (a miss) → DS: "Job openings **above** forecast" → bearish (should be bullish)
- Claims 202K vs f 217K (fewer claims) → DS: "Claims **higher** than forecast" → bullish (should be bearish)
- Claims 202K vs f 209K — same backwards read, same wrong call
Both Unemployment Claims events in the sample were misread the same way —
looks systematic on that event type, possibly an anchoring prior that
"claims rose". All misreads involve close values with K/M suffixes.
2. **Direction field contradicts its own reason (1/28)** — Empire State
−43.7 vs f −4.9: reason text says "gold may rise", `gold_direction` says
`bearish`.
Where the numbers were read correctly, hawkish/dovish→gold mapping was
consistently correct (CPI/PPI/NFP/ADP/GDP/PMI/wages/unemployment-rate all
handled properly, including inverted metrics when read right).
Price cross-check (1h horizon, cluster-confounded, indicative only):
reviewer calls 22/28 with the subsequent move, DeepSeek 20/28.
## Part B — headline sentiment (78-headline golden set)
DeepSeek matched the reviewer's expected gold-direction label on
**78/78 (100%)** — including all 8 negation traps ("signals no rate hike",
"no rate cuts until…") and all 6 inverted-metric phrasings ("claims hit
two-year high"). The keyword scorer it overrides got **24/78 (31%)**.
Repeat-batch and shuffled-order probes recorded (headlines_replay.jsonl).
## Implications
- The headline-sentiment override (the main live LLM surface) is validated —
a large, measured upgrade over keywords.
- The event-direction enrichment ("— gold bullish/bearish" appended to
surprise descriptions) is right ~85–90% of the time but can state a
factually backwards comparison in the displayed reason. It is display-only
(never gates signals), so exposure is a possibly-misleading Telegram/CLI
line, not trades.
- **Hardening SHIPPED same day (owner-approved):** the payload now carries a
code-computed `vs_forecast` field ("above/below/in line with forecast",
from `EconomicEvent.surprise`) and the prompt tells the model to trust it.
First iteration fixed the arithmetic but exposed a masked doctrine error
(model read "claims below forecast" correctly, then called it a *weaker*
labor market — and regressed the unemployment-rate case the same way), so
the prompt's inverted-metrics line was expanded to an explicit rule plus a
worked claims example. Verification: **18/18** — all 4 original misreads
fixed, 11/11 no-regression cases unchanged, 3/3 fresh probes on the side
the prompt example does NOT cover (claims 245K vs f 220K → bullish,
unemployment 4.1% vs 3.9% → bullish, JOLTS 9.10M vs 8.80M → bearish).
Suite green at 346 tests, incl. a new payload assertion in Module 19.
- Production observations found while building the harness (not fixed):
`_llm_event_cache` key omits forecast → a repeated `actual` re-serves a
direction computed for a different forecast; a "neutral" reply is
indistinguishable from a failure in the return value.
## Reproduce
```
venv/bin/python backtest/research/llm_news_eval.py events --limit 5 # smoke
venv/bin/python backtest/research/llm_news_eval.py events --determinism 20
venv/bin/python backtest/research/llm_news_eval.py headlines
venv/bin/python backtest/research/llm_news_eval.py report # offline
```
Corpus: 586 high-impact USD surprises 2024-01→2026-07 (calendar.parquet,
NFP-verified UTC); prices: Oanda M15 mids. Full-run cost ≈ cents. The
`report` subcommand (hit rates vs always-bullish/doctrine/FF-betterWorse
baselines, McNemar, cluster view) is built and untested at scale — run it
after completing the replay if a statistical answer is ever wanted.
-79
View File
@@ -1,79 +0,0 @@
headline,category,expected_xau_sign,rationale
"Powell says restrictive policy needed for longer as inflation proves sticky",hawkish_fed,-1,"higher-for-longer rates lift real yields, gold-bearish"
"Fed minutes show officials leaning toward two more rate hikes this year",hawkish_fed,-1,"more hikes = stronger dollar/yields"
"Hot CPI print fuels bets on additional Fed tightening",hawkish_fed,-1,"tightening expectations weigh on gold"
"Fed's Waller: higher-for-longer rates warranted by resilient economy",hawkish_fed,-1,"hawkish guidance"
"FOMC raises rates 50bp, flags further increases ahead",hawkish_fed,-1,"outsized hike plus hawkish guidance"
"Treasury yields spike as Fed pushes back on rate cut hopes",hawkish_fed,-1,"cut hopes dashed, yields up"
"Core inflation accelerates, cementing case for hawkish Fed stance",hawkish_fed,-1,"hawkish repricing"
"Fed dot plot shifts higher; markets price out easing for the year",hawkish_fed,-1,"easing priced out"
"Fed cuts rates 25bp and signals more easing to come",dovish_fed,1,"easing cycle is gold-bullish"
"Powell hints at rate cuts as inflation cools toward target",dovish_fed,1,"cut guidance"
"FOMC minutes reveal growing support for policy easing",dovish_fed,1,"dovish minutes"
"Fed's Williams says rate cuts appropriate later this year",dovish_fed,1,"cut guidance"
"Soft inflation data boosts odds of a dovish Fed pivot",dovish_fed,1,"pivot odds up"
"Fed pauses hikes, markets price aggressive easing cycle",dovish_fed,1,"easing priced in"
"Central banks turn dovish as global growth falters",dovish_fed,1,"global easing backdrop"
"Fed to restart bond purchases to support flagging economy",dovish_fed,1,"QE is gold-bullish"
"Dollar index hits 12-month high on robust US economic data",strong_usd,-1,"strong dollar pressures gold"
"US GDP grows 4.1% annualized, blowing past expectations",strong_usd,-1,"strong economy, hawkish implication"
"Blockbuster jobs report sends dollar surging across the board",strong_usd,-1,"strong jobs lift dollar and yields"
"US retail sales smash forecasts, underscoring consumer strength",strong_usd,-1,"strong data"
"Greenback rallies as US data outshines Europe and Asia",strong_usd,-1,"dollar strength"
"ISM services index jumps to two-year high on strong demand",strong_usd,-1,"strong data"
"Consumer confidence surges to post-pandemic high in the US",strong_usd,-1,"strong data"
"Dollar tumbles to eight-month low after dismal manufacturing data",weak_usd,1,"weak dollar lifts gold"
"US economy adds far fewer jobs than expected; dollar slides",weak_usd,1,"weak jobs, dovish implication"
"Greenback weakens as US retail sales unexpectedly contract",weak_usd,1,"weak data"
"US GDP growth revised down sharply, stoking slowdown fears",weak_usd,1,"slowdown is dovish"
"Dollar slumps as trade deficit balloons to record",weak_usd,1,"dollar weakness"
"Soft services PMI adds to evidence of cooling US economy",weak_usd,1,"cooling economy"
"US consumer sentiment plunges to two-year low",weak_usd,1,"weak data"
"Real yields climb to multi-year highs as TIPS sell off",real_yields,-1,"rising real yields raise gold's opportunity cost"
"10-year Treasury yield surges past 5% on supply glut",real_yields,-1,"yield spike"
"Rising real interest rates dim appeal of non-yielding assets",real_yields,-1,"explicit opportunity-cost story"
"Treasury yields sink as investors flock to bonds",real_yields,1,"falling yields support gold"
"Real yields turn negative as inflation outpaces rates",real_yields,1,"negative real yields are gold's best backdrop"
"Bond rally drives 10-year yield to lowest level in a year",real_yields,1,"falling yields"
"Geopolitical tensions escalate in Middle East, investors seek safety",safe_haven,1,"safe-haven bid"
"Stocks crater worldwide as banking crisis fears spread",safe_haven,1,"crisis flight to safety"
"Escalating conflict drives flight to safe-haven assets",safe_haven,1,"explicit haven flow"
"Investors dump risk assets after surprise sovereign default",safe_haven,1,"default shock"
"Military escalation on NATO border rattles global markets",safe_haven,1,"geopolitical stress"
"Wall Street plunges 4% in worst session since pandemic",safe_haven,1,"risk-off"
"Currency crisis in emerging markets sparks contagion fears",safe_haven,1,"contagion, haven bid"
"Nuclear rhetoric intensifies, sending investors to havens",safe_haven,1,"extreme geopolitical stress"
"Ceasefire agreement lifts global markets, haven demand fades",risk_on,-1,"haven unwind"
"Stocks roar to record highs as trade deal signed",risk_on,-1,"risk-on drains haven demand"
"Risk appetite returns as banking fears subside",risk_on,-1,"risk-on"
"Global equities rally on strong earnings and easing tensions",risk_on,-1,"risk-on"
"Gold hits record high as central banks keep buying bullion",gold_direct,1,"direct demand"
"Gold ETFs post biggest weekly inflows in three years",gold_direct,1,"investment inflows"
"China's central bank extends gold buying spree to 18th month",gold_direct,1,"official-sector demand"
"Miners struggle to meet gold demand as supply deficit widens",gold_direct,1,"supply deficit"
"Gold slides 2% as investors book profits after record run",gold_direct,-1,"profit-taking pressure"
"Gold tumbles below key support as ETF outflows accelerate",gold_direct,-1,"outflows"
"Bullion demand weakens as Indian jewellery buying stalls",gold_direct,-1,"physical demand soft"
"Speculators slash bullish gold bets as dollar strengthens",gold_direct,-1,"positioning unwind"
"Fed holds rates steady, signals no rate hike on the horizon",negation_traps,1,"dovish hold; keyword layer sees the phrase rate hike and flips it gold-bearish"
"Powell says no rate cuts until inflation shows sustained cooling",negation_traps,-1,"hawkish hold; keyword layer sees rate cut and calls it gold-bullish"
"Recession fears fade as US data streak beats estimates",negation_traps,-1,"fading fear is risk-on; keywords see recession plus beats and cancel out"
"Inflation fails to accelerate, easing pressure on the Fed",negation_traps,1,"disinflation opens door to cuts"
"Fed's Bowman: not yet confident inflation is beaten, cuts premature",negation_traps,-1,"hawkish pushback phrased around negations"
"Central bank stops short of hiking, but warns tightening may resume",negation_traps,-1,"hawkish hold with tightening bias"
"No safe-haven bid for gold despite equity wobble, analysts say",negation_traps,-1,"explicitly negated haven demand"
"Jobs report not as weak as feared, dollar recovers",negation_traps,-1,"less-bad data is dollar-positive"
"US manufacturing output plunges as new orders dry up",inverted_metrics,1,"weak economy is dovish/gold-bullish; keyword layer reads plunges as bearish"
"US factory activity slumps to three-year low",inverted_metrics,1,"weak data; keyword reads slumps as bearish"
"Consumer spending falls for third straight month",inverted_metrics,1,"weak data; keyword reads falls as bearish"
"Private payrolls growth slides to weakest pace since 2020",inverted_metrics,1,"weak jobs; keyword reads slides as bearish"
"Jobless claims hit two-year high as layoffs spread",inverted_metrics,1,"higher claims = weaker economy = gold-bullish"
"US unemployment rate hits 4.5%, highest since 2021",inverted_metrics,1,"higher unemployment = dovish = gold-bullish"
"Lakers clinch playoff berth with overtime win over Suns",distractors,0,"irrelevant"
"New Marvel film smashes box office records on opening weekend",distractors,0,"irrelevant"
"Apple unveils thinner MacBook with faster chip lineup",distractors,0,"irrelevant"
"Scientists discover new deep-sea species off Pacific coast",distractors,0,"irrelevant"
"Heavy rain forecast for the Midwest through the weekend",distractors,0,"irrelevant"
"Streaming service raises subscription prices in Europe",distractors,0,"irrelevant"
"Electric vehicle startup recalls 12,000 cars over software glitch",distractors,0,"irrelevant"
"Local elections see record turnout in several US states",distractors,0,"irrelevant"
1 headline category expected_xau_sign rationale
2 Powell says restrictive policy needed for longer as inflation proves sticky hawkish_fed -1 higher-for-longer rates lift real yields, gold-bearish
3 Fed minutes show officials leaning toward two more rate hikes this year hawkish_fed -1 more hikes = stronger dollar/yields
4 Hot CPI print fuels bets on additional Fed tightening hawkish_fed -1 tightening expectations weigh on gold
5 Fed's Waller: higher-for-longer rates warranted by resilient economy hawkish_fed -1 hawkish guidance
6 FOMC raises rates 50bp, flags further increases ahead hawkish_fed -1 outsized hike plus hawkish guidance
7 Treasury yields spike as Fed pushes back on rate cut hopes hawkish_fed -1 cut hopes dashed, yields up
8 Core inflation accelerates, cementing case for hawkish Fed stance hawkish_fed -1 hawkish repricing
9 Fed dot plot shifts higher; markets price out easing for the year hawkish_fed -1 easing priced out
10 Fed cuts rates 25bp and signals more easing to come dovish_fed 1 easing cycle is gold-bullish
11 Powell hints at rate cuts as inflation cools toward target dovish_fed 1 cut guidance
12 FOMC minutes reveal growing support for policy easing dovish_fed 1 dovish minutes
13 Fed's Williams says rate cuts appropriate later this year dovish_fed 1 cut guidance
14 Soft inflation data boosts odds of a dovish Fed pivot dovish_fed 1 pivot odds up
15 Fed pauses hikes, markets price aggressive easing cycle dovish_fed 1 easing priced in
16 Central banks turn dovish as global growth falters dovish_fed 1 global easing backdrop
17 Fed to restart bond purchases to support flagging economy dovish_fed 1 QE is gold-bullish
18 Dollar index hits 12-month high on robust US economic data strong_usd -1 strong dollar pressures gold
19 US GDP grows 4.1% annualized, blowing past expectations strong_usd -1 strong economy, hawkish implication
20 Blockbuster jobs report sends dollar surging across the board strong_usd -1 strong jobs lift dollar and yields
21 US retail sales smash forecasts, underscoring consumer strength strong_usd -1 strong data
22 Greenback rallies as US data outshines Europe and Asia strong_usd -1 dollar strength
23 ISM services index jumps to two-year high on strong demand strong_usd -1 strong data
24 Consumer confidence surges to post-pandemic high in the US strong_usd -1 strong data
25 Dollar tumbles to eight-month low after dismal manufacturing data weak_usd 1 weak dollar lifts gold
26 US economy adds far fewer jobs than expected; dollar slides weak_usd 1 weak jobs, dovish implication
27 Greenback weakens as US retail sales unexpectedly contract weak_usd 1 weak data
28 US GDP growth revised down sharply, stoking slowdown fears weak_usd 1 slowdown is dovish
29 Dollar slumps as trade deficit balloons to record weak_usd 1 dollar weakness
30 Soft services PMI adds to evidence of cooling US economy weak_usd 1 cooling economy
31 US consumer sentiment plunges to two-year low weak_usd 1 weak data
32 Real yields climb to multi-year highs as TIPS sell off real_yields -1 rising real yields raise gold's opportunity cost
33 10-year Treasury yield surges past 5% on supply glut real_yields -1 yield spike
34 Rising real interest rates dim appeal of non-yielding assets real_yields -1 explicit opportunity-cost story
35 Treasury yields sink as investors flock to bonds real_yields 1 falling yields support gold
36 Real yields turn negative as inflation outpaces rates real_yields 1 negative real yields are gold's best backdrop
37 Bond rally drives 10-year yield to lowest level in a year real_yields 1 falling yields
38 Geopolitical tensions escalate in Middle East, investors seek safety safe_haven 1 safe-haven bid
39 Stocks crater worldwide as banking crisis fears spread safe_haven 1 crisis flight to safety
40 Escalating conflict drives flight to safe-haven assets safe_haven 1 explicit haven flow
41 Investors dump risk assets after surprise sovereign default safe_haven 1 default shock
42 Military escalation on NATO border rattles global markets safe_haven 1 geopolitical stress
43 Wall Street plunges 4% in worst session since pandemic safe_haven 1 risk-off
44 Currency crisis in emerging markets sparks contagion fears safe_haven 1 contagion, haven bid
45 Nuclear rhetoric intensifies, sending investors to havens safe_haven 1 extreme geopolitical stress
46 Ceasefire agreement lifts global markets, haven demand fades risk_on -1 haven unwind
47 Stocks roar to record highs as trade deal signed risk_on -1 risk-on drains haven demand
48 Risk appetite returns as banking fears subside risk_on -1 risk-on
49 Global equities rally on strong earnings and easing tensions risk_on -1 risk-on
50 Gold hits record high as central banks keep buying bullion gold_direct 1 direct demand
51 Gold ETFs post biggest weekly inflows in three years gold_direct 1 investment inflows
52 China's central bank extends gold buying spree to 18th month gold_direct 1 official-sector demand
53 Miners struggle to meet gold demand as supply deficit widens gold_direct 1 supply deficit
54 Gold slides 2% as investors book profits after record run gold_direct -1 profit-taking pressure
55 Gold tumbles below key support as ETF outflows accelerate gold_direct -1 outflows
56 Bullion demand weakens as Indian jewellery buying stalls gold_direct -1 physical demand soft
57 Speculators slash bullish gold bets as dollar strengthens gold_direct -1 positioning unwind
58 Fed holds rates steady, signals no rate hike on the horizon negation_traps 1 dovish hold; keyword layer sees the phrase rate hike and flips it gold-bearish
59 Powell says no rate cuts until inflation shows sustained cooling negation_traps -1 hawkish hold; keyword layer sees rate cut and calls it gold-bullish
60 Recession fears fade as US data streak beats estimates negation_traps -1 fading fear is risk-on; keywords see recession plus beats and cancel out
61 Inflation fails to accelerate, easing pressure on the Fed negation_traps 1 disinflation opens door to cuts
62 Fed's Bowman: not yet confident inflation is beaten, cuts premature negation_traps -1 hawkish pushback phrased around negations
63 Central bank stops short of hiking, but warns tightening may resume negation_traps -1 hawkish hold with tightening bias
64 No safe-haven bid for gold despite equity wobble, analysts say negation_traps -1 explicitly negated haven demand
65 Jobs report not as weak as feared, dollar recovers negation_traps -1 less-bad data is dollar-positive
66 US manufacturing output plunges as new orders dry up inverted_metrics 1 weak economy is dovish/gold-bullish; keyword layer reads plunges as bearish
67 US factory activity slumps to three-year low inverted_metrics 1 weak data; keyword reads slumps as bearish
68 Consumer spending falls for third straight month inverted_metrics 1 weak data; keyword reads falls as bearish
69 Private payrolls growth slides to weakest pace since 2020 inverted_metrics 1 weak jobs; keyword reads slides as bearish
70 Jobless claims hit two-year high as layoffs spread inverted_metrics 1 higher claims = weaker economy = gold-bullish
71 US unemployment rate hits 4.5%, highest since 2021 inverted_metrics 1 higher unemployment = dovish = gold-bullish
72 Lakers clinch playoff berth with overtime win over Suns distractors 0 irrelevant
73 New Marvel film smashes box office records on opening weekend distractors 0 irrelevant
74 Apple unveils thinner MacBook with faster chip lineup distractors 0 irrelevant
75 Scientists discover new deep-sea species off Pacific coast distractors 0 irrelevant
76 Heavy rain forecast for the Midwest through the weekend distractors 0 irrelevant
77 Streaming service raises subscription prices in Europe distractors 0 irrelevant
78 Electric vehicle startup recalls 12,000 cars over software glitch distractors 0 irrelevant
79 Local elections see record turnout in several US states distractors 0 irrelevant
-16
View File
@@ -7,7 +7,6 @@
},
"data_providers": {
"active": "oanda",
"streaming": "tiingo",
"twelve_data": {
"api_key": "REPLACE_WITH_YOUR_TWELVE_DATA_API_KEY"
},
@@ -33,20 +32,5 @@
"quality_gate": "C",
"max_hold_bars": 300
},
"deepseek": {
"api_key": "REPLACE_WITH_YOUR_DEEPSEEK_API_KEY_OR_EMPTY",
"model": "deepseek-v4-flash",
"enabled": true,
"timeout_seconds": 12,
"daily_request_cap": 500
},
"agent_panel": {
"enabled": false,
"telegram": true,
"dashboard": false,
"min_quality": "B",
"max_panels_per_day": 20,
"reuse_ttl_seconds": 3600
},
"log_level": "INFO"
}
-9
View File
@@ -46,12 +46,6 @@ class TechnicalConfig:
ema_medium: int = 21
ema_slow: int = 50
ema_trend: int = 200
# 4-EMA mode only: score partial ribbon alignment (2-3 of 4 checks)
# as NEUTRAL instead of a weak BUY/SELL. Research knob (2026-08-04
# indicator audit: partial-alignment trades averaged -0.008R vs
# +0.230R fully aligned on the M5 12mo Oanda book); default False =
# legacy behavior until a replay campaign validates flipping it.
ema_partial_neutral: bool = False
rsi_period: int = 14
rsi_overbought: float = 70.0
@@ -166,9 +160,6 @@ class NewsConfig:
# Must stay below pre_event_buffer_minutes so an event can't cross
# into the danger window while a stale cache says it's clear.
context_cache_ttl_seconds: int = 600
# Maximum age of RSS headlines accepted for scoring. Older headlines
# are discarded before keyword analysis and LLM enrichment.
headline_max_age_seconds: int = 43200 # 12 hours
rss_feeds: List[str] = field(default_factory=lambda: [
"https://investinglive.com/feed/",
-459
View File
@@ -1,459 +0,0 @@
#!/usr/bin/env python3
"""
XAU/USD static dashboard publisher.
Standalone daemon that scans XAU/USD at candle closes and atomically
writes `snapshot.json` + `news.json` (plus a copy of
`static/dashboard.html`) into an Apache-served directory. Apache does
all web serving — this process never opens a port, so a failure here
can only ever mean a stale page.
Independence rules (owner requirement — the telegram bot must be
immune to anything on the web side):
* Runs as its own process; never imported by, and never imports,
`telegram_bot` / `oanda_daemon` (telegram_bot resolves credentials
at import). The confirmation map and boundary math are therefore
duplicated here as local constants.
* The only shared-code dependency beyond the standard signal path is
the additive `NewsEngine.get_week_events` accessor, which no
production signal path calls.
Scheduling: every M15/H1/H4 boundary is also an M5 boundary (all
intervals are multiples of 5, anchored to UTC midnight), so one
sequential loop sleeps to the next M5 boundary (+10 s buffer) and scans
whichever timeframes just closed. Due-classification uses the RAW wake
time — flooring 12:00:10 to the 5-minute grid yields the 12:00 boundary
that just closed. Do NOT subtract the buffer first: 12:00:10 − 15 s
floors to 11:55 and silently skips every H1/H4 scan (v1 bug, 2026-08-02).
Scans run sequentially M5→M15→H1→H4 through one shared data provider so
later timeframes hit the warm boundary cache — that ordering IS the
duplicate-fetch dedup (providers have no in-flight dedup; Oanda has no
throttle). Keep it sequential.
Run: python dashboard_publisher.py [--once] [--out DIR]
Out dir precedence: --out → DASHBOARD_OUT_DIR env → /var/www/trade
"""
import argparse
import json
import hashlib
import logging
import math
import numbers
import os
import shutil
import sys
import time
from datetime import datetime, timezone
from logging.handlers import TimedRotatingFileHandler
from typing import Dict, List, Optional
from agent_panel import attach_panel
from config import PlatformConfig, Timeframe, XAUUSD
from main import report_to_dict
from news_engine import NewsEngine
from pair_signals import produce_signal
from providers import make_data_provider
import providers.base as _providers_base
logger = logging.getLogger("dashboard")
DASHBOARD_TFS = [Timeframe.M5, Timeframe.M15, Timeframe.H1, Timeframe.H4]
# Local copy of the bot's confirmation map (see independence rules above).
CONFIRMATIONS = {
Timeframe.M5: [Timeframe.M15, Timeframe.H1],
Timeframe.M15: [Timeframe.M5, Timeframe.H1],
Timeframe.H1: [Timeframe.M15, Timeframe.H4],
Timeframe.H4: [Timeframe.H1, Timeframe.D1],
}
TF_INTERVAL_MINUTES = {
Timeframe.M5: 5, Timeframe.M15: 15, Timeframe.H1: 60, Timeframe.H4: 240,
}
DEFAULT_OUT_DIR = "/var/www/trade"
SCAN_BUFFER_SECONDS = 10
SNAPSHOT_FILE = "snapshot.json"
NEWS_FILE = "news.json"
PAGE_FILE = "dashboard.html"
SUMMARY_PHP_FILE = "news_summary.php"
# Repo files copied into the out dir at daemon start (git pull + restart
# updates them). The PHP endpoint reads news.json in place, so it lives
# next to the page.
STATIC_FILES = [PAGE_FILE, SUMMARY_PHP_FILE]
# ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
# Pure layer (no network, fully covered by test_all.py)
# ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
def _safe_num(v):
"""Coerce to a JSON-safe float; NaN/±inf become None."""
try:
f = float(v)
except (TypeError, ValueError):
return v
if math.isnan(f) or math.isinf(f):
return None
return f
def _sanitize(obj):
"""Recursively make a payload safe for json.dumps(allow_nan=False):
NaN/inf → None, numpy scalars → native ints/floats."""
if isinstance(obj, bool):
return obj
if isinstance(obj, dict):
return {k: _sanitize(v) for k, v in obj.items()}
if isinstance(obj, (list, tuple)):
return [_sanitize(v) for v in obj]
if isinstance(obj, numbers.Integral):
return int(obj)
if isinstance(obj, numbers.Real):
return _safe_num(obj)
return obj
def analysis_to_dict(analysis) -> Optional[dict]:
"""Serialize a TechnicalAnalysis. Iterates analysis.indicators only —
never vars()/asdict(), which would drag dynamic pandas attrs
(_rsi_series, _macd_histogram, …) into the payload. ATR (weight 0)
is surfaced separately as context, not in the directional grid."""
if analysis is None:
return None
indicators = {}
atr_context = None
for name, ind in analysis.indicators.items():
if name.startswith("_"):
continue
entry = {
"signal": ind.signal.name,
"value": _safe_num(ind.value),
"confidence": _safe_num(ind.confidence),
"weight": _safe_num(ind.weight),
"description": ind.description,
}
if name == "atr":
atr_context = entry
elif ind.weight != 0:
indicators[name] = entry
return {
"timeframe": analysis.timeframe,
"timestamp": str(analysis.timestamp),
"composite_signal": analysis.composite_signal.name,
"composite_score": _safe_num(analysis.composite_score),
"confidence": _safe_num(analysis.confidence),
"market_regime": analysis.market_regime,
"volatility_regime": analysis.volatility_regime,
"pattern_signals": list(analysis.pattern_signals),
"key_levels": {k: _safe_num(v) for k, v in analysis.key_levels.items()},
"indicators": indicators,
"atr_context": atr_context,
}
def report_to_webapp_dict(report) -> dict:
"""main.report_to_dict + the per-TF detail the dashboard needs."""
d = report_to_dict(report)
d["primary_signal"] = report.primary_signal.name
d["primary_score"] = _safe_num(report.primary_score)
d["mtf_scores"] = {k: _safe_num(v) for k, v in report.mtf_scores.items()}
d["exhaustion_count"] = report.exhaustion_count
d["primary_analysis"] = analysis_to_dict(report.primary_analysis)
d["confirmation_analyses"] = [
analysis_to_dict(a) for a in report.confirmation_analyses
]
return _sanitize(d)
def event_to_dict(ev) -> dict:
"""EconomicEvent → dict. surprise/minutes_until/is_high_impact are
properties, so asdict() would skip them — added explicitly.
actual/forecast/previous stay strings as published ('228K', '0.3%')."""
return {
"time": ev.time.astimezone(timezone.utc).isoformat(),
"currency": ev.currency,
"impact": ev.impact,
"event": ev.event,
"forecast": ev.forecast,
"previous": ev.previous,
"actual": ev.actual,
"surprise": ev.surprise,
"minutes_until": _safe_num(ev.minutes_until),
"is_high_impact": ev.is_high_impact,
}
def headline_to_dict(h) -> dict:
# id uses the same sha1(headline) scheme as NewsEngine._llm_sent_cache;
# it is the join key the PHP summary endpoint whitelists against.
return {
"id": hashlib.sha1(h.headline.encode("utf-8")).hexdigest(),
"headline": h.headline,
"source": h.source,
"link": h.link,
"description": h.description,
"publisher": h.publisher,
"timestamp": h.timestamp.astimezone(timezone.utc).isoformat()
if h.timestamp else None,
"currencies": list(h.currencies_mentioned),
"score": _safe_num(h.sentiment_score),
"keywords": list(h.keywords),
"score_by_currency": {
k: _safe_num(v) for k, v in h.sentiment_by_currency.items()
},
}
def build_news_payload(context, week_events, now: datetime) -> dict:
"""news.json: full calendar week + scored headlines + LLM summary."""
headlines = sorted(
context.news_headlines,
key=lambda h: h.timestamp or now, reverse=True,
)
return _sanitize({
"generated_at": now.isoformat(),
"llm_summary": context.llm_summary,
"sentiment": dict(context.news_sentiment),
"high_impact_warning": context.high_impact_warning,
"warning_message": context.warning_message,
"calendar_available": context.calendar_available,
"events": [event_to_dict(e) for e in week_events],
"headlines": [headline_to_dict(h) for h in headlines],
})
def due_timeframes(wake_dt: datetime) -> List[Timeframe]:
"""Timeframes whose candle just closed at the boundary this wake
belongs to. Takes the RAW wake time (boundary + buffer): flooring to
the 5-minute grid yields the boundary that just passed. Never
subtract the buffer first — see module docstring (v1 bug)."""
minutes = wake_dt.hour * 60 + wake_dt.minute
floored = minutes - (minutes % 5)
return [tf for tf in DASHBOARD_TFS if floored % TF_INTERVAL_MINUTES[tf] == 0]
def seconds_until_boundary(interval_minutes: int, buffer: int = 10) -> float:
# Same math as telegram_bot.py / oanda_daemon.py — kept local so the
# dashboard never imports bot modules (independence rules above).
now = datetime.now(timezone.utc)
total_minutes = now.hour * 60 + now.minute
elapsed_minutes = total_minutes % interval_minutes
elapsed_seconds = elapsed_minutes * 60 + now.second + now.microsecond / 1e6
interval_seconds = interval_minutes * 60
remaining = interval_seconds - elapsed_seconds + buffer
# NOTE: remaining > buffer always (elapsed < interval by construction);
# a call at the exact boundary instant targets the NEXT boundary —
# steady-state loops wake at boundary+buffer, so only a process
# started in the boundary microsecond skips one scan (2026-08-04
# audit I42; the old `remaining <= buffer` guard was unreachable).
return remaining
def _empty_tf_entry() -> dict:
return {"status": "warming", "scanned_at": None, "scan_seconds": None,
"error": None, "error_at": None, "report": None}
def build_snapshot_payload(snapshots: Dict[str, dict], now: datetime) -> dict:
"""snapshot.json: one entry per dashboard TF. Timeframes not yet
scanned appear as status="warming" so the page can render a
placeholder instead of a hole. server_time_epoch lets the client
compute its clock offset once so countdowns don't drift."""
timeframes = {}
for tf in DASHBOARD_TFS:
interval = TF_INTERVAL_MINUTES[tf]
minutes = now.hour * 60 + now.minute
secs_into = (minutes % interval) * 60 + now.second + now.microsecond / 1e6
next_close = now.timestamp() + (interval * 60 - secs_into)
entry = _empty_tf_entry()
entry.update(snapshots.get(tf.value) or {})
entry["next_close_epoch"] = next_close
entry["next_scan_epoch"] = next_close + SCAN_BUFFER_SECONDS
timeframes[tf.value] = entry
return _sanitize({
"symbol": XAUUSD,
"server_time_epoch": now.timestamp(),
"market_closed": _providers_base._is_forex_weekend(now),
"timeframes": timeframes,
})
def publish(obj: dict, path: str) -> None:
"""Atomic JSON write: temp file + os.replace, so Apache never serves
a torn file. allow_nan=False — a NaN slipping through would render
the page blank (JSON.parse rejects bare NaN)."""
data = json.dumps(obj, allow_nan=False, separators=(",", ":"))
tmp = path + ".tmp"
with open(tmp, "w", encoding="utf-8") as fh:
fh.write(data)
os.replace(tmp, path)
# ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
# Runtime layer (constructed only from main(); never at import)
# ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
def _setup_logging(level: str = "INFO") -> None:
log_dir = os.path.join(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__)), "logs")
os.makedirs(log_dir, exist_ok=True)
log_file = os.path.join(log_dir, "dashboard.log")
fmt = logging.Formatter(
"%(asctime)s [%(levelname)s] %(name)s: %(message)s",
datefmt="%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%S")
file_handler = TimedRotatingFileHandler(
log_file, when="h", interval=3, backupCount=240, utc=True)
file_handler.setFormatter(fmt)
console_handler = logging.StreamHandler(sys.stdout)
console_handler.setFormatter(fmt)
logging.basicConfig(
level=getattr(logging, level.upper(), logging.INFO),
handlers=[file_handler, console_handler],
force=True)
class DashboardPublisher:
def __init__(self, out_dir: str):
self.out_dir = out_dir
self.snapshots: Dict[str, dict] = {}
self.news_payload: Optional[dict] = None
self._dp = None
self._news_engine: Optional[NewsEngine] = None
def _provider(self):
if self._dp is None:
self._dp = make_data_provider(PlatformConfig())
return self._dp
def _news(self) -> NewsEngine:
if self._news_engine is None:
self._news_engine = NewsEngine(PlatformConfig().news)
return self._news_engine
def install_static(self) -> None:
"""Copy the repo's static files (page + PHP summary endpoint)
into the out dir (atomic), so git pull + restart also updates
them. The ai/ cache dir is NOT created here — the daemon runs as
a different user than Apache; that dir is a one-time deploy step
(deploy/README-dashboard.md)."""
static_dir = os.path.join(
os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__)), "static")
for name in STATIC_FILES:
src = os.path.join(static_dir, name)
if not os.path.exists(src):
logger.warning(f"{src} missing — not installed")
continue
dst = os.path.join(self.out_dir, name)
shutil.copyfile(src, dst + ".tmp")
os.replace(dst + ".tmp", dst)
def scan_tf(self, tf: Timeframe) -> None:
started = time.time()
try:
report = produce_signal(XAUUSD, tf, self._provider(),
CONFIRMATIONS[tf])
# Advisory AI panel, post-hoc and display-only. Off unless
# config.json agent_panel.dashboard is true. The reuse-TTL
# cache + max_panels_per_day budget bound the spend against
# this process's own DeepSeek cap (a persisting M5 signal
# re-serves its cached verdict instead of re-running every
# bar); a fresh panel adds ≤~25 s before this TF publishes.
attach_panel(report, surface="dashboard")
self.snapshots[tf.value] = {
"status": "ok",
"scanned_at": datetime.now(timezone.utc).isoformat(),
"scan_seconds": round(time.time() - started, 2),
"error": None,
"error_at": None,
"report": report_to_webapp_dict(report),
}
logger.info(f"{tf.value}: {report.final_signal.name} "
f"q={report.signal_quality or '-'} "
f"({time.time() - started:.1f}s)")
except Exception as e:
# Keep the last good report; the page shows it with an
# error badge instead of going blank.
logger.exception(f"{tf.value} scan failed")
entry = self.snapshots.get(tf.value) or _empty_tf_entry()
entry["status"] = "error"
entry["error"] = f"{type(e).__name__}: {e}"
entry["error_at"] = datetime.now(timezone.utc).isoformat()
self.snapshots[tf.value] = entry
def refresh_news(self) -> None:
try:
ne = self._news()
context = ne.get_fundamental_context()
week = ne.get_week_events()
self.news_payload = build_news_payload(
context, week, datetime.now(timezone.utc))
except Exception:
logger.exception("news refresh failed — keeping last payload")
def publish_snapshot(self) -> None:
publish(build_snapshot_payload(
self.snapshots, datetime.now(timezone.utc)),
os.path.join(self.out_dir, SNAPSHOT_FILE))
def publish_news(self) -> None:
if self.news_payload is not None:
publish(self.news_payload, os.path.join(self.out_dir, NEWS_FILE))
def publish_all(self) -> None:
self.publish_snapshot()
self.publish_news()
def run_cycle(self, tfs: List[Timeframe]) -> None:
for tf in tfs: # sequential — see module docstring (cache dedup)
self.scan_tf(tf)
# Snapshot lands BEFORE the news refresh: when the news TTL has
# expired, refresh_news does FF + 4 RSS fetches (and possibly
# DeepSeek calls) — 20-30 s that must not keep fresh signals off
# the page.
self.publish_snapshot()
self.refresh_news()
self.publish_news()
def run_forever(self) -> None:
self.run_cycle(DASHBOARD_TFS) # populate the page at boot
while True:
delay = seconds_until_boundary(5, buffer=SCAN_BUFFER_SECONDS)
logger.info(f"next M5 boundary in {delay:.0f}s")
time.sleep(delay)
try:
due = due_timeframes(datetime.now(timezone.utc))
logger.info(f"boundary wake — scanning {[t.value for t in due]}")
self.run_cycle(due)
except Exception:
logger.exception("cycle failed")
def main(argv=None) -> None:
ap = argparse.ArgumentParser(description="XAU/USD static dashboard publisher")
ap.add_argument("--once", action="store_true",
help="one scan+publish cycle, then exit")
ap.add_argument("--out",
default=os.environ.get("DASHBOARD_OUT_DIR", DEFAULT_OUT_DIR),
help="output directory served by Apache "
f"(default: $DASHBOARD_OUT_DIR or {DEFAULT_OUT_DIR})")
args = ap.parse_args(argv)
_setup_logging()
os.makedirs(args.out, exist_ok=True)
pub = DashboardPublisher(args.out)
pub.install_static()
if args.once:
pub.run_cycle(DASHBOARD_TFS)
print(f"Published to {args.out}")
return
pub.run_forever()
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()
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@@ -1,157 +0,0 @@
# Deploying the web dashboard (live LAMP server)
The dashboard is a **static publisher**: `dashboard_publisher.py` runs as its
own daemon, scans XAU/USD at candle closes, and atomically writes
`dashboard.html` + `news_summary.php` + `snapshot.json` + `news.json` into a
folder Apache already serves. Apache does all web serving — no new port, no
Python web server, and the telegram bot process is completely unaffected by
anything that happens here (see the module docstring for the independence
rules). The one dynamic piece is `news_summary.php` (§6): an on-demand
DeepSeek summary for a clicked headline, whitelist-gated against news.json.
All steps below run **on the live server** (`/home/Forex/ForexBot2`).
## 1. Get the code
```bash
cd /home/Forex/ForexBot2
git pull
venv/bin/python test_all.py # optional sanity: suite must be green
```
No new Python dependencies are required.
## 2. Make the web folder writable
The dashboard publishes straight into the portal docroot `/var/www/trade/`
(owner decision 2026-08-03) — it adds exactly four files there:
`dashboard.html`, `news_summary.php`, `snapshot.json`, `news.json` (plus the
apache-owned `ai/` cache dir from §6). The daemon user must be able to write
them:
```bash
# if the portal files can be owned by the daemon user:
sudo chown Forex: /var/www/trade
# otherwise grant write without changing ownership:
sudo setfacl -m u:Forex:rwx /var/www/trade
```
(A different path is one edit away: the unit's `Environment=DASHBOARD_OUT_DIR=`
line, or `--out` for one-off runs.)
SELinux (RHEL/Alma/CentOS enforcing): directories under `/var/www` normally
already carry `httpd_sys_content_t`, and new files inherit the parent label, so
no action is usually needed. If Apache 403s despite correct permissions:
```bash
sudo restorecon -R /var/www/trade
```
## 3. Smoke-test once
```bash
venv/bin/python dashboard_publisher.py --once
ls /var/www/trade # dashboard.html snapshot.json news.json added next to the portal
```
Then open `http://<server>/dashboard.html` (path relative to however the
vhost maps `/var/www/trade`) — all four timeframe cards, the calendar, and
the newswire should populate.
## 4. Install the daemon
```bash
sudo cp deploy/gold-dashboard.service /etc/systemd/system/
# edit User= if the repo owner is not "Forex"
sudo systemctl daemon-reload
sudo systemctl enable --now gold-dashboard
systemctl status gold-dashboard
tail -f logs/dashboard.log
```
The daemon scans all four timeframes at boot, then wakes at every M5
boundary (+10 s) and rescans whichever timeframes just closed. Logs rotate
every 3 h (240 backups), same scheme as the bot.
## 5. Optional Apache polish
The page polls its JSON with conditional GETs (`cache: "no-cache"` → Apache
answers unchanged files with 304), so no Apache config is strictly needed. To
be explicit anyway:
```apache
<Directory "/var/www/trade">
<FilesMatch "\.json$">
Header set Cache-Control "no-cache"
</FilesMatch>
</Directory>
```
The page is deliberately public (owner decision 2026-08-03). To restrict it
later, add standard Apache basic auth (`htpasswd` + `Require valid-user`) on
that directory — no code changes needed.
## 6. AI summary endpoint (PHP) — one-time setup
Clicking a newswire headline opens a detail dialog that fetches an on-demand
DeepSeek gold-impact summary from `news_summary.php` (installed next to the
page by the daemon). Owner decision 2026-08-07: a real on-demand endpoint on
the public page, accepted with these guards baked into the PHP — the id must
match a headline in the published news.json (arbitrary text can never reach
the LLM), each headline's summary is cached forever in `ai/` (≤1 API call per
headline, ever), and a file-based daily cap fails **closed** on I/O errors.
Requirements: `php` + the curl extension (`php -m | grep curl`).
```bash
# 1. SELinux: allow httpd outbound HTTPS — WITHOUT this every summary call
# dies as a curl timeout even with perfect perms (RHEL-family default).
sudo setsebool -P httpd_can_network_connect 1
# 2. API key OUTSIDE the docroot, readable by Apache only:
sudo install -d -o root -g root -m 755 /etc/gold-dashboard
sudo sh -c 'umask 137; echo "sk-..." > /etc/gold-dashboard/deepseek.key'
sudo chown root:apache /etc/gold-dashboard/deepseek.key # mode 640
# 3. apache-owned cache dir (the daemon runs as Forex and can't create it):
sudo install -d -o apache -g apache -m 755 /var/www/trade/ai
sudo semanage fcontext -a -t httpd_sys_rw_content_t '/var/www/trade/ai(/.*)?'
sudo restorecon -Rv /var/www/trade/ai
```
Knobs (Apache `SetEnv` in the vhost, both optional):
`AI_SUMMARY_DAILY_CAP` (default 150), `DEEPSEEK_KEY_FILE` (default
`/etc/gold-dashboard/deepseek.key`).
Verify from the shell — expect 400 / 404 / 200 / 200-from-cache:
```bash
curl -s "http://<server>/news_summary.php?id=zzz" # {"error":"bad_id"}
curl -s "http://<server>/news_summary.php?id=$(printf 'a%.0s' {1..40})" # unknown_id
ID=$(python3 -c "import json;print(json.load(open('/var/www/trade/news.json'))['headlines'][0]['id'])")
curl -s "http://<server>/news_summary.php?id=$ID" # real summary (2-12 s)
curl -s "http://<server>/news_summary.php?id=$ID" # instant, from ai/<id>.json
```
## Operational notes
- **Updating**: `git pull` + `systemctl restart gold-dashboard`. The daemon
re-copies `static/dashboard.html` and `static/news_summary.php` into the
web folder at startup.
- **If the daemon dies**, systemd restarts it in 30 s; worst case the page
shows stale data with its own "updated N min ago" evidence. Apache and the
telegram bot are unaffected.
- **DeepSeek**: the publisher process has its own daily request cap
(`deepseek.daily_request_cap`, default 500) separate from the bot's —
expect roughly up to ~430 extra calls/day worst case, V4-Flash pricing.
- **Two independent DeepSeek meters** hit the same API key: the publisher's
in-process cap above, and the PHP endpoint's file cap (`ai/.ht_cap.json`,
default 150/day). They don't communicate — worst-case spend is their sum;
DeepSeek-side spend alerting is the true backstop. Kept separate on
purpose (independence rule: the PHP never imports/reads bot code or
config.json).
- **Restart window**: for the first minutes after a daemon restart the new
page can meet a pre-upgrade news.json without headline ids — those rows
simply render non-clickable until the first news publish.
- **Credentials**: uses the same env/.env/config.json resolution as the rest
of the platform (Oanda candles feed; news needs no key; DeepSeek optional).
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@@ -1,23 +0,0 @@
# systemd unit for the XAU/USD static dashboard publisher.
# Install (as root, on the live server):
# cp deploy/gold-dashboard.service /etc/systemd/system/
# systemctl daemon-reload && systemctl enable --now gold-dashboard
# See deploy/README-dashboard.md for the full checklist.
[Unit]
Description=XAU/USD dashboard publisher (writes static JSON/HTML for Apache)
After=network-online.target
Wants=network-online.target
[Service]
Type=simple
# Adjust to the account that owns /home/Forex/ForexBot2:
User=Forex
WorkingDirectory=/home/Forex/ForexBot2
Environment=DASHBOARD_OUT_DIR=/var/www/trade
ExecStart=/home/Forex/ForexBot2/venv/bin/python dashboard_publisher.py
Restart=always
RestartSec=30
[Install]
WantedBy=multi-user.target
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"""ForexBot2 architecture diagram → docs/architecture.png.
Regenerate after architecture changes: venv/bin/python docs/architecture_diagram.py
(matplotlib only — no graphviz on the dev box)."""
import os
import matplotlib
matplotlib.use("Agg")
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from matplotlib.patches import FancyBboxPatch, FancyArrowPatch
W, H = 100.0, 100.0
fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(16, 11.5))
ax.set_xlim(0, W); ax.set_ylim(0, H); ax.axis("off")
INK = "#263238"; MUT = "#607D8B"; ARR = "#455A64"; HAUL = "#7B8FA1"
def box(x, y, w, h, title, lines, fc, ec, title_fs=8.2, body_fs=6.6, lw=1.3):
ax.add_patch(FancyBboxPatch((x, y), w, h,
boxstyle="round,pad=0.35,rounding_size=0.9",
facecolor=fc, edgecolor=ec, linewidth=lw, zorder=2))
cy = y + h - 1.9
ax.text(x + w / 2, cy, title, ha="center", va="center", fontsize=title_fs,
fontweight="bold", color=INK, zorder=3)
cy -= 2.3
for ln in lines:
ax.text(x + w / 2, cy, ln, ha="center", va="center", fontsize=body_fs,
color=INK, zorder=3)
cy -= 1.85
def band(x, y, w, h, label, color):
ax.add_patch(FancyBboxPatch((x, y), w, h,
boxstyle="round,pad=0.3,rounding_size=1.2",
facecolor="none", edgecolor=color, linewidth=1.0,
linestyle=(0, (4, 3)), zorder=1))
ax.text(x + 0.9, y + h - 1.4, label, ha="left", va="center",
fontsize=7.2, fontweight="bold", color=color, zorder=3)
def arrow(p1, p2, color=ARR, lw=1.5, style="-|>", conn="arc3,rad=0.0",
label=None, lx=0, ly=0, ls="solid", fs=6.4, rot=0):
ax.add_patch(FancyArrowPatch(p1, p2, arrowstyle=style, mutation_scale=11,
color=color, linewidth=lw, linestyle=ls,
connectionstyle=conn, zorder=4))
if label:
mx, my = (p1[0] + p2[0]) / 2 + lx, (p1[1] + p2[1]) / 2 + ly
ax.text(mx, my, label, fontsize=fs, color=MUT, ha="center",
va="center", zorder=5, rotation=rot,
bbox=dict(boxstyle="round,pad=0.15", fc="white", ec="none", alpha=0.9))
# ── title ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
ax.text(2, 98.4, "ForexBot2 — XAU/USD Signal-Intelligence Platform",
fontsize=15, fontweight="bold", color=INK, ha="left")
ax.text(2, 96.0, "one pipeline, four delivery surfaces · closed bars only · live == backtest parity",
fontsize=8.5, color=MUT, ha="left")
EXT_FC, EXT_EC = "#ECEFF1", "#90A4AE"
DAT_FC, DAT_EC = "#E3F2FD", "#5C9BD1"
NWS_FC, NWS_EC = "#E0F2F1", "#3D9C8F"
COR_FC, COR_EC = "#FFFDF5", "#C9A227"
REP_FC, REP_EC = "#FFE9A8", "#B8860B"
DEL_FC, DEL_EC = "#E8F5E9", "#5FAF63"
BTS_FC, BTS_EC = "#EDE7F6", "#8E6BC6"
# ── external services (top band) ─────────────────────────────────────
band(1, 85.0, 98, 9.4, "EXTERNAL SERVICES", "#78909C")
box(2.5, 86.2, 15.5, 6.4, "Oanda v20 API",
["candles (live feed)", "practice orders"], EXT_FC, EXT_EC)
box(19.5, 86.2, 15.5, 6.4, "Twelve Data · Tiingo",
["registered fallbacks", "(Tiingo: tick stream)"], EXT_FC, EXT_EC)
box(36.5, 86.2, 15.5, 6.4, "Forex Factory",
["economic calendar", "MyFXBook RSS fallback"], EXT_FC, EXT_EC)
box(53.5, 86.2, 12.5, 6.4, "News RSS ×4",
["gold / macro", "headlines"], EXT_FC, EXT_EC)
box(67.5, 86.2, 13.5, 6.4, "DeepSeek API",
["V4-Flash LLM", "thinking: disabled"], EXT_FC, EXT_EC)
box(82.5, 86.2, 15, 6.4, "Telegram API",
["owner bot +", "subscriber channel"], EXT_FC, EXT_EC)
# ── data & context layer ─────────────────────────────────────────────
box(2.5, 69.8, 33, 11.0, "providers/ (BaseDataProvider)",
["single-flight fetch · TTL+boundary cache",
"forming-candle DROP · validate/clean",
"paginated fetch_range · optional tick stream",
"active feed knob: data_providers.active = oanda"],
DAT_FC, DAT_EC)
box(38.5, 69.8, 33, 11.0, "news_engine.py + llm_client.py",
["calendar events + keyword sentiment (gold-inverse)",
"DeepSeek enrichment: batch headline scores,",
"event gold-direction, market blurb — display-only,",
"keyword fallback, daily request cap"],
NWS_FC, NWS_EC)
box(74.5, 69.8, 23, 11.0, "app_config.py",
["credentials & deployment:",
"env → config.json → refuse",
"(no hardcoded fallbacks)",
".env loaded at import"],
"#FAFAFA", "#9E9E9E")
# ── signal core container ────────────────────────────────────────────
ax.add_patch(FancyBboxPatch((2.5, 40.5), 95, 26.5,
boxstyle="round,pad=0.35,rounding_size=1.2",
facecolor=COR_FC, edgecolor=COR_EC, linewidth=1.6, zorder=1))
ax.text(50, 65.2, "SIGNAL CORE — runs identically in live scans and backtests (closed bars only)",
ha="center", fontsize=8.4, fontweight="bold", color="#8a6d1a", zorder=3)
box(4.5, 51.8, 28, 12.0, "engine.py — TechnicalEngine",
["9 scored indicators + ATR context:",
"EMA · RSI · MACD · BB · ADX · ROC ·",
"Keltner · divergence · candlestick",
"regime → adaptive weights → composite"],
"white", COR_EC)
box(4.5, 42.0, 28, 8.4, "pair_signals/xauusd.py — factory",
["ALWAYS used: config.json overlay +",
"validated per-TF deltas (hour blocks, trail…)"],
"white", COR_EC)
box(35.5, 42.0, 60, 20.7, "signal_aggregator.py — analyze_pair → analyze_from_dataframes",
["multi-TF agreement (M5→[M15,H1] · M15→[M5,H1] · H1→[M15,H4] · H4→[H1,D1])",
"→ news context (warn-only by default) → diminishing-decay penalties",
"→ exhaustion hard block → quality grade A+…F",
"→ ordered post-grade gate chain (session · XAU SELL vol/hour · regime · M5 noise)",
"→ setup generators: XAU ATR (A+/A) · generic swing · XAU_PB · XAU_CP",
"→ entry · SL · TP1/TP2 · trailing plan"],
"white", COR_EC, body_fs=6.9)
# ── SignalReport hub ─────────────────────────────────────────────────
box(31, 33.2, 38, 5.2, "SignalReport",
["signal (−2…+2) · grade · trade setup · reasons · news summary"],
REP_FC, REP_EC, title_fs=8.8)
# ── delivery surfaces ────────────────────────────────────────────────
band(1, 13.2, 98, 17.2, "DELIVERY SURFACES", "#4C8F50")
box(2.5, 15.0, 12, 12.6, "main.py",
["CLI report", "--detail", "--json"], DEL_FC, DEL_EC)
box(16, 15.0, 24, 12.6, "oanda_daemon.py + executor",
["practice auto-execution",
"book-parity rules: no broker TP,",
"5-bar cooldown, once-per-bar",
"trail, OPEN_ONLY fills,",
"boot reconcile · orders → Oanda"],
DEL_FC, DEL_EC, title_fs=7.8)
box(42.5, 15.0, 31, 12.6, "dashboard_publisher.py → Apache",
["independent daemon · scans at candle closes",
"atomic publish to /var/www/trade:",
"dashboard.html · snapshot.json · news.json",
"+ news_summary.php — on-demand AI",
"gold-impact summary (whitelist · cache · cap)"],
DEL_FC, DEL_EC)
box(76, 15.0, 21.5, 12.6, "telegram_bot.py",
["candle-boundary auto-scans", "quality threshold + dedup",
"alerts + LLM context line", "WS level-breach monitor"],
DEL_FC, DEL_EC)
# ── backtest / QA ────────────────────────────────────────────────────
box(2.5, 3.2, 71.8, 8.0, "backtest/gpu_backtest.py — bar-by-bar replay through the SAME analyze_from_dataframes",
["realism (results-critical): next-open entries · raw-path resolution · spread charged · SL-first ties · close-only trail",
"CuPy GPU / NumPy fallback · parquet cache · fed by providers.fetch_range (news off)"],
BTS_FC, BTS_EC)
box(77.5, 3.2, 20, 8.0, "test_all.py",
["359 tests · 22 modules", "no network (mocked)"], "#FAFAFA", "#9E9E9E")
# ── arrows: short structural hops (solid dark) ───────────────────────
arrow((10, 86.2), (14, 81.2), label="OHLCV", lx=-3.4, ly=0.2) # oanda → providers
arrow((27, 86.2), (24, 81.2), ls=(0, (3, 2)), lw=1.1) # fallbacks → providers
arrow((44, 86.2), (48, 81.2)) # FF → news
arrow((59.5, 86.2), (56, 81.2)) # RSS → news
arrow((72, 86.2), (62, 81.2), label="LLM", lx=3.4, ly=0.6) # deepseek → news
arrow((19, 69.8), (19, 64.2), label="DataFrames (UTC, closed bars)", lx=0.2, ly=0.9)
arrow((33.5, 57.5), (35.5, 55.5)) # engine → aggregator
arrow((32.5, 46.0), (35.5, 48.0)) # factory → aggregator
arrow((55, 69.8), (55, 63.1), label="warn-only context", lx=0, ly=1.0)
arrow((86, 69.8), (86, 67.3), ls=(0, (3, 2)), lw=1.1) # config → core
arrow((50, 40.5), (50, 38.8)) # core → report
arrow((36, 34.5), (8.5, 27.95), conn="arc3,rad=0.12") # report → cli
arrow((40, 33.2), (28, 27.95), conn="arc3,rad=0.06") # report → daemon
arrow((60, 33.2), (58, 27.95)) # report → dashboard
arrow((66, 34.5), (86.5, 27.95), conn="arc3,rad=-0.12") # report → telegram
# ── long-haul edges (thin dashed, routed through gutters) ────────────
# telegram bot ↔ Telegram API — right-margin arc, clear of app_config
arrow((95, 86.2), (95, 27.95), conn="arc3,rad=0.15", color=HAUL,
lw=1.2, ls=(0, (4, 2)))
ax.text(99.2, 57, "alerts / commands", fontsize=6.4, color=MUT,
rotation=90, ha="center", va="center")
# browser click → news_summary.php → DeepSeek
# (oanda_daemon's order flow is noted inside its box — no long arc)
arrow((66, 27.95), (73, 86.2), conn="arc3,rad=-0.18", color=HAUL,
lw=1.2, ls=(0, (4, 2)),
label="on-demand AI summary\n(browser click → PHP)", lx=2.5, ly=11.6)
# providers.fetch_range → backtester — far-left margin channel
arrow((1.5, 69.8), (1.5, 11.0), color=BTS_EC, lw=1.1, ls=(0, (3, 2)),
label="fetch_range\n(history)", lx=3.6, ly=-1.2)
# backtester replays the signal core — right gutter between boxes
arrow((74.0, 11.6), (74.9, 40.3), color=HAUL, lw=1.3)
ax.text(81.8, 38.9, "replays the exact signal code", fontsize=6.4,
color=MUT, ha="center", va="center", zorder=5,
bbox=dict(boxstyle="round,pad=0.15", fc="white", ec="none", alpha=0.9))
out = os.path.join(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__)), "architecture.png")
fig.savefig(out, dpi=200, bbox_inches="tight", facecolor="white")
print(f"saved {out}")
+1 -3
View File
@@ -69,9 +69,8 @@
<tr><td><b>Score / confidence</b></td><td>The regime-weighted composite of all nine indicators. Bigger absolute score = stronger consensus.</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>MTF aligned</b></td><td>The two confirmation timeframes agree with the trade direction. Signals without alignment are filtered out on M5.</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Warnings ⚠️</b></td><td>Context, not veto. Backtesting shows warned trades perform about the same — strong momentum often triggers warnings.</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Market context 📰</b></td><td>An AI-written one-liner summarizing today's macro backdrop (headlines + high-impact releases) and its likely pull on gold. Informational only — it never blocks or grades a signal.</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>SL / TP1 / RR</b></td><td>Stop loss sits behind the nearest swing level with an ATR buffer. TP1 is the nearest opposing level. <b>1R</b> = the entry-to-SL distance = the amount you risk.</td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Trail plan 🔄</b></td><td>The real exit. Once price moves +0.6R in your favor, move the stop to trail 0.75R behind the best price and update it at each candle close. <b>TP1 is advisory — let winners run.</b></td></tr>
<tr><td><b>Trail plan 🔄</b></td><td>The real exit. Once price moves +0.6R in your favor (+0.8R for pullback setups), move the stop to trail 0.75R behind the best price and update it at each candle close. <b>TP1 is advisory — let winners run.</b></td></tr>
</table>
<h2>3 · Acting on a signal — step by step</h2>
@@ -130,7 +129,6 @@
<tr><td><code>/scan</code></td><td>Run an immediate analysis of the primary timeframe.</td></tr>
<tr><td><code>/autoscan</code></td><td>Toggle automatic scanning (M5 / M15 / H1 / H4 at each candle close).</td></tr>
<tr><td><code>/status</code></td><td>Uptime, auto-scan state, WebSocket price-monitor state.</td></tr>
<tr><td><code>/news</code></td><td>Net XAU/USD news sentiment score (informational only — never gates signals).</td></tr>
<tr><td><code>/cache</code> · <code>/clearcache</code></td><td>Inspect / reset the market-data cache.</td></tr>
<tr><td><code>/help</code></td><td>Command reference.</td></tr>
</table>
-6
View File
@@ -245,12 +245,6 @@ class TechnicalEngine:
signal = SignalStrength.NEUTRAL
conf = 40
# Partial alignment (plain BUY/SELL, 2-3 of 4 checks) carries no
# edge on M5 — squash to NEUTRAL when the research knob is on.
if c.ema_partial_neutral and signal in (SignalStrength.BUY, SignalStrength.SELL):
signal = SignalStrength.NEUTRAL
conf = 40
crossover_desc = ""
if len(ema_fast) >= 3:
prev_f, prev_m = ema_fast.iloc[-2], ema_medium.iloc[-2]
-195
View File
@@ -1,195 +0,0 @@
"""
ForexBot2 — DeepSeek LLM client
================================
Thin requests-based client for DeepSeek's OpenAI-compatible chat API,
used by `news_engine` for display/warning-only enrichment (headline
sentiment, event surprise direction, market summary). Signals are NEVER
gated on LLM output — every caller has a non-LLM fallback and treats a
`None` return as "use the fallback".
Design constraints:
- One attempt per call, no retries: news runs inside scan cycles; the
news engine's 600 s context cache is the natural retry cadence.
- A UTC-day request cap bounds spend even if a bug causes call storms.
- Cost: DeepSeek caches identical prompt PREFIXES server-side (cache-hit
input is ~50x cheaper), so callers pass a STATIC system prompt (no
timestamps or interpolation) and put all variable content in the user
payload.
This is a module-level singleton (`get_llm_client`) because the daily
cap counter must survive the per-scan reconstruction of `NewsEngine`.
"""
import datetime as _dt
import json
import logging
import threading
import time
from typing import Any, Dict, Optional, Tuple
import requests
from app_config import deepseek_api_key, get_app_config
logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
DEEPSEEK_URL = "https://api.deepseek.com/chat/completions"
DEFAULT_MODEL = "deepseek-v4-flash"
# 8s timed out on a measured cold-prefix-cache headline batch (2026-08-03);
# warm-cache calls come back well under that. 12s buys cold-start headroom
# while still bounding worst-case scan latency (≤3 calls per cache window).
DEFAULT_TIMEOUT = 12.0
DEFAULT_DAILY_CAP = 500
class DeepSeekClient:
"""JSON-in/JSON-out chat wrapper. All failures return None."""
def __init__(
self,
api_key: str,
model: str = DEFAULT_MODEL,
timeout: float = DEFAULT_TIMEOUT,
daily_cap: int = DEFAULT_DAILY_CAP,
enabled: bool = True,
):
self._api_key = api_key or ""
self._model = model
self._timeout = timeout
self._daily_cap = daily_cap
self._enabled = enabled
self._session = requests.Session()
self._session.headers.update({
"Content-Type": "application/json",
"Authorization": f"Bearer {self._api_key}",
})
self._lock = threading.Lock()
self._count_day: Optional[_dt.date] = None
self._count = 0
self._warned: set = set()
# Health stamps for status displays: last successful call and
# last failure (ts, kind). Read-only for consumers.
self.last_ok: float = 0.0
self.last_error: Optional[Tuple[float, str]] = None
@property
def available(self) -> bool:
return self._enabled and bool(self._api_key)
def _warn_once(self, kind: str, msg: str, *args: Any) -> None:
if kind in self._warned:
logger.debug(msg, *args)
else:
self._warned.add(kind)
logger.warning(msg, *args)
def _under_cap(self) -> bool:
"""Count a request against the UTC-day cap; False = don't call."""
today = _dt.datetime.now(_dt.timezone.utc).date()
with self._lock:
if self._count_day != today:
self._count_day = today
self._count = 0
self._warned.discard("cap")
if self._count >= self._daily_cap:
self._warn_once(
"cap", "DeepSeek daily request cap (%d) exhausted — "
"falling back to keyword analysis until UTC midnight",
self._daily_cap)
return False
self._count += 1
return True
def chat_json(self, system_prompt: str,
user_payload: Dict[str, Any]) -> Optional[Dict[str, Any]]:
"""One chat call; returns the model's JSON object or None."""
if not self.available or not self._under_cap():
return None
body = {
"model": self._model,
"messages": [
{"role": "system", "content": system_prompt},
{"role": "user",
"content": json.dumps(user_payload, sort_keys=True)},
],
"response_format": {"type": "json_object"},
"temperature": 0,
# V4-Flash is a hybrid thinking model; without this flag it
# burns hundreds of reasoning tokens per call — measured
# 2026-08-03: a 25-headline batch blew straight through the
# timeout AND could exhaust max_tokens before the answer,
# returning empty content. The doctrine + few-shot examples
# in the system prompts carry the quality instead.
"thinking": {"type": "disabled"},
# Must fit the largest reply: a full sentiment batch is
# ~10 tokens per headline; 1000 truncated mid-JSON on a real
# RSS cycle (2026-08-03).
"max_tokens": 2000,
}
try:
resp = self._session.post(
DEEPSEEK_URL, json=body, timeout=self._timeout)
except requests.RequestException as e:
self.last_error = (time.time(), "network")
self._warn_once("network", "DeepSeek call failed: %s", e)
return None
if resp.status_code != 200:
self.last_error = (time.time(), f"http_{resp.status_code}")
self._warn_once(
f"http_{resp.status_code}",
"DeepSeek HTTP %s: %s", resp.status_code, resp.text[:200])
return None
try:
parsed = self._parse_response(resp.json())
except ValueError:
parsed = None
if parsed is None:
self.last_error = (time.time(), "parse")
self._warn_once("parse", "DeepSeek response was not the "
"expected JSON object — ignoring")
else:
self.last_ok = time.time()
return parsed
@staticmethod
def _parse_response(body: Any) -> Optional[Dict[str, Any]]:
"""Extract the assistant's JSON object from a chat completion."""
try:
content = body["choices"][0]["message"]["content"]
except (KeyError, IndexError, TypeError):
return None
try:
obj = json.loads(content)
except (TypeError, ValueError):
return None
return obj if isinstance(obj, dict) else None
# ── Process-wide singleton ────────────────────────────────────────────
_client: Optional[DeepSeekClient] = None
_client_lock = threading.Lock()
def get_llm_client() -> DeepSeekClient:
global _client
with _client_lock:
if _client is None:
settings = get_app_config().deepseek_settings
_client = DeepSeekClient(
api_key=deepseek_api_key(),
model=str(settings.get("model", DEFAULT_MODEL)),
timeout=float(settings.get("timeout_seconds",
DEFAULT_TIMEOUT)),
daily_cap=int(settings.get("daily_request_cap",
DEFAULT_DAILY_CAP)),
enabled=settings.get("enabled", True) is not False,
)
return _client
def reset_llm_client() -> None:
"""Drop the singleton (tests / config reloads)."""
global _client
with _client_lock:
_client = None
-252
View File
@@ -1,252 +0,0 @@
================================================================================
MULTI-PROVIDER LLM LAYER - PLAN
(DeepSeek for news summary, Anthropic Claude for agent panel)
Written 2026-08-08. Plan only - no code has been changed.
================================================================================
WHY
---
Today every LLM feature (news enrichment + agent panel) goes through one
hardwired client: llm_client.py -> DeepSeekClient, a module singleton reached
via get_llm_client(). This plan describes how to route different features to
different providers - e.g. keep DeepSeek for cheap high-volume news scoring,
put the agent panel on Anthropic Claude for better reasoning.
The repo already solved this problem once for market data: the providers/
package (BaseDataProvider owns shared machinery, subclasses implement only
_fetch_raw, a registry + one config knob selects the provider). This plan
mirrors that proven pattern at the LLM layer, scaled down to a single module.
BLAST RADIUS (verified by grep)
-------------------------------
get_llm_client() call sites:
- news_engine.py ....... 4 sites
- agent_panel.py ....... 3 sites (+1 timeout getattr)
- telegram_bot.py ...... 1 site (/status health; reads private _count,
_count_day, _daily_cap fields)
- test_all.py .......... 41 locations stub via lc._client = _StubLLM(...)
Out of scope: static/news_summary.php (own PHP DeepSeek call + key file,
separate deployment).
DESIGN INVARIANTS (carried over unchanged)
------------------------------------------
1. Fail-safe contract: every call returns Optional[Dict]; any failure -> None;
callers keep their non-LLM fallbacks; LLM output never gates signals.
2. Single attempt, no retries (news cache cadence is the retry); per-provider
UTC daily cap; warn-once logging; health stamps (last_ok, last_error).
3. Static system prompts stay byte-identical constants - provider-neutral,
and they map to prompt caching on BOTH providers (DeepSeek prefix cache;
Anthropic cache_control ephemeral).
4. Test compatibility: all 41 existing lc._client stub sites keep working
with zero edits.
================================================================================
1. llm_client.py REFACTOR (~195 -> ~430 lines, no new files)
================================================================================
1a. BaseLLMClient - shared machinery (extracted from today's DeepSeekClient)
- __init__(api_key, model, timeout, daily_cap, enabled)
- public: name ("deepseek"/"anthropic"), timeout property,
usage() -> (used_today, cap) # so telegram_bot stops reading privates
- owns: available property, _warn_once, _under_cap() (UTC-day counter,
lock), health stamps, and the template method:
def chat_json(self, system_prompt, user_payload):
if not self.available or not self._under_cap():
return None
try:
return self._request(system_prompt, user_payload) # hook
except <provider-agnostic error mapping>:
# stamps last_error, returns None
- subclasses implement ONLY _request(system_prompt, payload) -> dict|None.
1b. DeepSeekClient(BaseLLMClient) - behavior-identical move
Current requests-based logic relocates into _request: same URL,
thinking:disabled, response_format:json_object, temperature 0,
max_tokens 2000, sort_keys=True payload, _parse_response.
Review criterion: Module 19 tests pass UNMODIFIED (they patch
client._session, which stays).
1c. AnthropicClient(BaseLLMClient) - new, official SDK
- Official `anthropic` Python SDK (add to requirements.txt), NOT raw
requests. LAZY IMPORT inside __init__: package missing -> warn-once +
client unavailable, so DeepSeek-only deployments never install it.
- Constructor: anthropic.Anthropic(api_key=..., timeout=<configured>,
max_retries=0) # house rule: single attempt
- _request:
resp = self._client.messages.create(
model=self._model, # default "claude-opus-5"
max_tokens=4000, # covers thinking + JSON reply
output_config={"effort": "low"}, # cheap structured takes
system=[{"type": "text", "text": system_prompt,
"cache_control": {"type": "ephemeral"}}],
messages=[{"role": "user",
"content": json.dumps(user_payload, sort_keys=True)}],
)
if resp.stop_reason == "refusal": # Opus 5: HTTP 200, check first
return None
text = first text block in resp.content
return self._parse_json(text) # tolerant: strip ```json fences,
# json.loads, dict check
- DELIBERATELY ABSENT (would 400 on Claude Opus 5): temperature (removed
on Opus 5 - do NOT copy from the DeepSeek client), budget_tokens,
prefills, response_format.
- Error mapping: APIConnectionError -> "network",
APIStatusError -> "http_<code>", parse fail -> "parse"
(same last_error kinds the /status display already understands).
- Defaults: model claude-opus-5 (config-overridable, e.g. claude-haiku-4-5
for ~5x cheaper), timeout 30s (Claude slower than V4-Flash), own
daily_request_cap 500.
1d. Registry + per-consumer routing
_PROVIDERS = {"deepseek": DeepSeekClient, "anthropic": AnthropicClient}
LLM_CONSUMERS = ("news", "agent_panel")
_clients = {} # keyed by PROVIDER name -> two consumers on the
# same provider share one instance and one cap
_client = None # kept: GLOBAL TEST OVERRIDE
def get_llm_client(consumer="news"):
if _client is not None: # tests: lc._client = stub
return _client # -> shadows ALL consumers
name = get_app_config().llm_routing.get(consumer, "deepseek")
create-once per provider, return _clients[name]
def reset_llm_client(): # clears _client AND _clients
Keeping _client as a documented test-override global is what makes the
41 existing stub sites work untouched.
================================================================================
2. CONFIG (app_config.py + config.json.example)
================================================================================
- New top-level "anthropic" block, mirroring "deepseek":
{api_key, model, enabled, timeout_seconds, daily_request_cap}
plus anthropic_api_key() resolver: ANTHROPIC_API_KEY env -> config.json -> "".
- New top-level "llm" ROUTING block:
{"news": "deepseek", "agent_panel": "deepseek"}
Validation: keys within {news, agent_panel}; values within registered
provider names. Absent block -> {} -> everything on DeepSeek (today's
behavior; zero-migration default). AppConfig.llm_routing: Dict[str, str].
- The target state is then PURE CONFIG - no code changes on switch day:
"llm": { "news": "deepseek", "agent_panel": "anthropic" },
"anthropic": { "api_key": "", "model": "claude-opus-5", "enabled": true,
"timeout_seconds": 30, "daily_request_cap": 500 }
================================================================================
3. CONSUMER EDITS (mechanical, ~10 lines total)
================================================================================
- news_engine.py: 4 call sites -> get_llm_client("news")
- agent_panel.py: 3 call sites -> get_llm_client("agent_panel");
getattr(client, "_timeout", ...) -> public client.timeout
- telegram_bot.py _news_health_lines: iterate the DISTINCT providers actually
routed (news + panel); per provider print "<name>: used/cap calls today"
via the new usage() accessor instead of private fields. DeepSeek keeps its
"headlines scored" extra; cap/error warnings work off base-class stamps.
- NO changes to prompts, payload builders, caches, or the panel's own
max_panels_per_day budget - all provider-agnostic already.
================================================================================
4. TESTS (new "Module 24: LLM provider routing", ~12 tests, ~200 lines)
================================================================================
Reuse _StubLLM; new _FakeAnthropic (fake messages.create returning a stub
response object) injected as client._client.
1. app_config: anthropic block parses/validates/defaults empty.
2. app_config: llm routing block - valid map round-trips; unknown consumer
key, unknown provider name, non-dict -> AppConfigError; absent -> {}.
3. anthropic_api_key resolves env -> config.json -> empty.
4. Base contract on BOTH subclasses (parametrized): keyless/disabled -> no
call; daily cap blocks + UTC-roll reset; failure stamps last_error,
success stamps last_ok.
5. AnthropicClient parse: clean JSON -> dict; ```json-fenced -> dict;
non-JSON -> None; stop_reason "refusal" -> None; no text block -> None.
6. AnthropicClient request shape: NO temperature key, max_retries=0,
cache_control present on system block (assert on captured kwargs).
7. AnthropicClient with `anthropic` package missing (simulated) ->
available False, chat_json None, no crash at import.
8. Routing: no llm block -> both consumers get the SAME DeepSeek singleton
(shared cap); routed config -> news gets DeepSeekClient while
agent_panel gets AnthropicClient; same-provider consumers share one
instance.
9. Global lc._client override shadows BOTH consumers (locks the 41 legacy
stub sites' semantics).
10. reset_llm_client() clears both the override and the per-provider cache.
11. End-to-end: routing agent_panel->anthropic, attach_panel reaches the
anthropic fake (5 calls) while a news call reaches the deepseek stub.
12. telegram _news_health_lines renders per-provider lines from usage()
without touching private fields.
GATE: Modules 19 and 23 must pass UNMODIFIED - the no-regression proof for
the refactor.
================================================================================
5. DOCS
================================================================================
- CLAUDE.md: llm_client bullet -> provider-abstracted (BaseLLMClient;
deepseek + anthropic registered); config.json "llm" block routes consumers;
absent = all-DeepSeek. Add ANTHROPIC_API_KEY to env-var list. Test counts.
- config.json.example: both new blocks.
================================================================================
COMMIT SEQUENCE (each commit green)
================================================================================
1. llm_client: extract BaseLLMClient; DeepSeekClient unchanged behavior
(+ base-contract tests) - pure refactor, Modules 19/23 green untouched.
2. config: anthropic block + llm consumer-routing block (+ config tests).
3. llm_client: AnthropicClient (official SDK, lazy import) + requirements.txt
(+ parse/shape tests).
4. routing: per-consumer get_llm_client + health lines - consumer call-site
edits, telegram usage() lines, routing/e2e tests.
5. docs: CLAUDE.md + example config.
================================================================================
VERIFICATION
================================================================================
- python test_all.py green at every commit (~374 -> ~386).
- Live smoke A (no behavior change): default config, main.py --panel ->
still DeepSeek, /status unchanged.
- Live smoke B (the goal): llm.agent_panel="anthropic" + real
ANTHROPIC_API_KEY, run --panel -> one real Claude panel (5 requests,
validates JSON contract + latency + refusal-free path) while a news
refresh still hits DeepSeek; /status shows two provider lines.
- Backtest untouched by construction (no LLM in replay path); one 30-day
run as a formality.
================================================================================
EFFORT ESTIMATE
================================================================================
0 new files, 8 modified, ~520 lines, est. 3-5 hours.
llm_client.py base class + AnthropicClient + routing +235
test_all.py Module 24 +200
app_config.py anthropic + llm blocks, resolver +55
telegram_bot.py per-provider health lines +15
news_engine.py consumer tags on call sites +4
agent_panel.py consumer tags on call sites +4
config.json.example blocks +14
requirements.txt anthropic +1
CLAUDE.md docs +10
================================================================================
KEY DECISIONS EMBEDDED IN THIS PLAN
================================================================================
- Official Anthropic SDK, not raw requests (current API guidance for Python;
lazy import keeps it optional for DeepSeek-only installs).
- Default Claude model: claude-opus-5 ($5/$25 per MTok; a full 5-call panel
~ 8k in / 500 out ~ $0.05). Config-overridable to claude-haiku-4-5.
- Two Claude gotchas handled: temperature is REMOVED on Opus 5 (sending it
400s - must not be copied from the DeepSeek request body), and refusals
arrive as HTTP 200 with stop_reason "refusal" (checked before parsing,
mapped to the normal None/fallback path).
- Caps are per-provider, not per-consumer: two consumers on one provider
share its cap (today's semantics); splitting across two providers doubles
total headroom naturally.
- The panel's own max_panels_per_day budget is untouched - it sits above
whichever provider serves it.
- Not in scope: static/news_summary.php (own PHP client/key), streaming,
tool use, per-consumer model overrides (add a "model" key per consumer
later if ever needed).
================================================================================
-23
View File
@@ -20,7 +20,6 @@ if hasattr(sys.stdout, "reconfigure"):
if hasattr(sys.stderr, "reconfigure"):
sys.stderr.reconfigure(encoding="utf-8")
from agent_panel import attach_panel
from config import PlatformConfig, Timeframe, SignalStrength, XAUUSD
from pair_signals import PAIR_PRODUCERS
from signal_aggregator import SignalAggregator, SignalReport
@@ -162,15 +161,6 @@ def print_signal_report(report: SignalReport, detail: bool = False):
print(f" {Colors.YELLOW}📅{Colors.RESET} {report.event_description}")
if report.news_description and report.news_description != "Neutral news sentiment":
print(f" {Colors.MAGENTA}📰{Colors.RESET} {report.news_description}")
if report.news_summary:
print(f" {Colors.MAGENTA}🧠{Colors.RESET} {report.news_summary}")
if report.panel_verdict:
print(f" {Colors.CYAN}🤖{Colors.RESET} AI Panel: "
f"{Colors.BOLD}{report.panel_verdict}{Colors.RESET} "
f"({report.panel_confidence:.0f}%) — {report.panel_rationale}")
for t in report.panel_takes:
print(f" {Colors.GRAY}{t['persona']:<11} {t['stance']:<8} "
f"{t['note']}{Colors.RESET}")
# ── 6. DETAIL (only with --detail) ─────────────────────────────
if detail and report.primary_analysis:
@@ -216,11 +206,6 @@ def report_to_dict(report: SignalReport) -> dict:
"event_description": report.event_description,
"news_sentiment": round(report.news_sentiment, 3),
"news_description": report.news_description,
"news_summary": report.news_summary,
"panel_verdict": report.panel_verdict,
"panel_confidence": round(report.panel_confidence, 1),
"panel_rationale": report.panel_rationale,
"panel_takes": report.panel_takes,
"bullish_reasons": report.bullish_reasons,
"bearish_reasons": report.bearish_reasons,
"warnings": report.warnings,
@@ -280,9 +265,6 @@ Examples:
help="Primary analysis timeframe (default: H1)")
parser.add_argument("--detail", action="store_true",
help="Show full indicator breakdown")
parser.add_argument("--panel", action="store_true",
help="Run the LLM agent panel on the result "
"(advisory only; needs a DeepSeek key)")
parser.add_argument("--json", action="store_true",
help="Output as JSON")
parser.add_argument("--verbose", "-v", action="store_true",
@@ -338,11 +320,6 @@ def run_live(args, config: PlatformConfig):
aggregator = SignalAggregator(config)
report = aggregator.analyze_pair(symbol=config.symbol)
# Explicit user intent: force bypasses the enabled/surface/quality
# toggles, but the daily panel budget and LLM cap still apply.
if getattr(args, "panel", False):
attach_panel(report, surface="cli", force=True)
if args.json:
print(json.dumps(report_to_dict(report), indent=2))
return
+4 -382
View File
@@ -8,8 +8,6 @@ Key principle: High-impact news events override technical signals.
A perfect technical setup can be destroyed by an unexpected NFP print.
"""
import hashlib
import html
import logging
import re
import threading
@@ -23,72 +21,10 @@ from typing import Dict, List, Optional, Tuple
import requests
from config import NewsConfig
from llm_client import get_llm_client
logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
# ── DeepSeek prompts ─────────────────────────────────────────────────
# STATIC constants on purpose: DeepSeek prices a repeated byte-identical
# prompt prefix at the cache-hit rate (~50x cheaper), so nothing here may
# be interpolated or timestamped. All variable content travels in the
# user payload. LLM output is display/warning-only — it never gates
# signals (see NewsConfig.sentiment_affects_signals).
_LLM_SENTIMENT_SYSTEM = """\
You are a forex/gold news analyst. You receive JSON:
{"headlines": ["...", ...]}
For EACH headline, in the same order, score:
- "s": overall market sentiment of the headline, -1.0 (very bearish)
to 1.0 (very bullish), 0.0 if irrelevant or neutral.
- "xau": the effect on the GOLD (XAU/USD) price, -1.0 (gold down)
to 1.0 (gold up), 0.0 if irrelevant.
Gold doctrine: hawkish Fed / rate hikes / rising real yields / strong
dollar are gold-bearish; easing / rate cuts / safe-haven flows /
geopolitical stress / weak dollar are gold-bullish.
Handle negation correctly ("no rate hike" is not hawkish).
Reply with ONLY JSON: {"scores": [[s, xau], ...]} — exactly one
[s, xau] pair per input headline, in the same order, nothing else.
Examples:
"Fed signals faster rate hikes as inflation stays hot" -> [0.4, -0.7]
"Gold surges to record high on safe-haven demand" -> [0.8, 0.9]
"Dollar slips after soft jobs report; Treasury yields fall" -> [-0.4, 0.6]
"""
_LLM_EVENT_SYSTEM = """\
You are a forex/gold analyst. You receive one released economic event as
JSON: {"event", "currency", "actual", "forecast", "previous",
"vs_forecast"}. "vs_forecast" states whether the actual print came in
above or below the forecast; it is computed programmatically — trust it
over your own comparison of the numbers. If it is "unknown", compare
actual and forecast yourself.
Decide the likely effect of this RELEASE on the GOLD (XAU/USD) price.
A stronger-than-forecast USD economy or a hawkish implication is usually
gold-bearish; weaker data or a dovish implication is usually
gold-bullish.
Inverted metrics — for unemployment rate and unemployment/jobless
claims a LOWER number means a STRONGER labor market: below forecast =
strong economy = usually gold-bearish; above forecast = weak economy =
usually gold-bullish.
Example: {"event": "Unemployment Claims", "actual": "202K", "forecast":
"217K", "vs_forecast": "below forecast"} ->
{"gold_direction": "bearish", "reason": "fewer claims show strong labor market"}
Reply with ONLY JSON:
{"gold_direction": "bullish"|"bearish"|"neutral", "reason": "<max 10 words>"}
"""
_LLM_SUMMARY_SYSTEM = """\
You are a forex/gold market-context writer. You receive JSON with recent
"headlines" and today's high-impact "events" (released: true means the
number is out). Write a 1-2 sentence plain-English summary of the
current macro backdrop for a GOLD (XAU/USD) trader: the dominant theme
and its likely pull on gold. No advice, no hedging boilerplate, max 45
words.
Reply with ONLY JSON: {"summary": "..."}
"""
_RELEASE_VALUE_RE = re.compile(r"(-?\d+(?:\.\d+)?)\s*([kmbt])?", re.IGNORECASE)
_RELEASE_MULTIPLIERS = {"k": 1e3, "m": 1e6, "b": 1e9, "t": 1e12}
@@ -104,44 +40,6 @@ def _parse_release_value(raw: Optional[str]) -> Optional[float]:
return float(match.group(1)) * multiplier
_DESC_MAX_CHARS = 500
_MAX_LINK_CHARS = 2048
def _clean_html_text(raw: Optional[str],
limit: int = _DESC_MAX_CHARS) -> Optional[str]:
"""RSS <description> → plain text: unescape entities, strip tags,
collapse whitespace, truncate. Unescape and strip both run twice
because feeds routinely double-encode (&amp;lt;p&amp;gt; wrapping
real markup) — the second unescape can reveal fresh tags."""
if not raw:
return None
text = html.unescape(raw)
text = re.sub(r"<[^>]+>", " ", text)
text = html.unescape(text)
text = re.sub(r"<[^>]+>", " ", text)
text = re.sub(r"\s+", " ", text).strip()
if not text:
return None
if len(text) > limit:
text = text[:limit].rstrip() + "…"
return text
def _safe_link(raw: Optional[str]) -> Optional[str]:
"""Article URL for display: http(s) only (an RSS <link> is untrusted
and lands in an href), bounded length (Google News redirect URLs run
1-2 KB; anything past that is bloat, not a link)."""
if not raw:
return None
link = raw.strip()
if not link.lower().startswith(("http://", "https://")):
return None
if len(link) > _MAX_LINK_CHARS:
return None
return link
@dataclass
class EconomicEvent:
"""Single economic calendar event."""
@@ -194,11 +92,6 @@ class NewsSentiment:
# Per-currency score: monetary-policy keywords flip sign for XAU
# (hawkish is dollar-bullish but gold-bearish).
sentiment_by_currency: Dict[str, float] = field(default_factory=dict)
# Display-only enrichment (dashboard detail dialog). Optional with
# defaults so existing constructor calls keep working.
link: Optional[str] = None # article URL (Google News = redirect)
description: Optional[str] = None # plain text, tags stripped, ≤500 chars
publisher: Optional[str] = None # Google News <source> text, else None
@dataclass
@@ -212,7 +105,6 @@ class FundamentalContext:
news_headlines: List[NewsSentiment] = field(default_factory=list)
event_impact_on_pairs: Dict[str, str] = field(default_factory=dict)
calendar_available: bool = False # True if live calendar data was fetched
llm_summary: str = "" # DeepSeek market-context blurb (display-only)
class NewsEngine:
@@ -293,25 +185,6 @@ class NewsEngine:
_headlines_cache: Tuple[float, List[NewsSentiment]] = (0.0, [])
_EMPTY_RESULT_TTL = 60.0 # retry sooner after a failed/empty fetch
# DeepSeek result caches. Headlines and releases are immutable, so a
# scored one never needs re-scoring; bounded by dropping the oldest
# insertion. _llm_sent_cache is only touched under _cache_lock (its
# writer runs inside _cached_fetch); the other two take the lock
# around cache access but keep HTTP calls outside it.
_llm_sent_cache: Dict[str, Tuple[float, float]] = {} # sha1 → (s, xau)
_llm_event_cache: Dict[Tuple[str, str, str], str] = {}
_llm_summary_cache: Tuple[float, str] = (0.0, "")
_LLM_SENT_CACHE_MAX = 400
_LLM_EVENT_CACHE_MAX = 100
# Per-source fetch health for status displays (telegram /status).
# name → {"ok": ts|None, "err": ts|None, "detail": str, "extra": str}.
# All writers run under _cache_lock (fetches happen inside
# _cached_fetch); readers render without the lock — worst case a
# display line is one cycle stale. A source is "failing" when its
# last error is newer than its last success.
_source_health: Dict[str, dict] = {}
def __init__(self, config: NewsConfig):
self.config = config
self._session = requests.Session()
@@ -391,12 +264,6 @@ class NewsEngine:
except Exception as e:
logger.warning(f"News sentiment fetch failed: {e}")
# 3. LLM market-context summary (display-only)
try:
context.llm_summary = self._llm_market_summary(context)
except Exception as e:
logger.debug(f"LLM market summary failed: {e}")
return context
@staticmethod
@@ -444,17 +311,10 @@ class NewsEngine:
)
if event.minutes_until > -window:
if surprised:
desc = (
return "caution", (
f"{event.currency} {event.event} released — {surprise} surprise "
f"(actual {event.actual} vs forecast {event.forecast})"
)
# LLM enrichment touches the DESCRIPTION only —
# `surprise` is numeric-direction and does not know
# whether a beat is gold-bullish; the LLM does.
gold_dir = self._llm_event_direction(event)
if gold_dir:
desc += f" — gold {gold_dir}"
return "caution", desc
return "caution", f"{event.currency} {event.event} just released"
return "clear", "No significant events"
@@ -488,24 +348,6 @@ class NewsEngine:
return net, desc
def get_week_events(
self, currencies: Optional[List[str]] = None
) -> List[EconomicEvent]:
"""Full cached calendar week (past and upcoming), filtered to
`currencies` (default: tracked_currencies), sorted by time.
Read-only accessor for display surfaces (the web dashboard) —
rides the same class-level cache as signal scans, so it adds no
network I/O. No production signal path calls this.
"""
if currencies is None:
currencies = self.config.tracked_currencies
events = self._cached_fetch("_calendar_cache", self._fetch_calendar_raw)
return sorted(
(e for e in events if e.currency in currencies),
key=lambda e: e.time,
)
# ── Private Methods ────────────────────────────────────────────
# Maps country names in MyFXBook titles to currency codes
@@ -515,36 +357,6 @@ class NewsEngine:
"canada": "CAD", "new zealand": "NZD",
}
@classmethod
def _record_source(cls, name: str, ok: bool, detail: str = "",
extra: str = "") -> None:
"""Track one dependency's fetch outcome for status displays.
Logs state TRANSITIONS so the log file carries the story without
a line every 10-min cycle: first failure WARNING (with detail),
repeat failures DEBUG, recovery INFO."""
h = cls._source_health.setdefault(
name, {"ok": None, "err": None, "detail": "", "extra": ""})
was_failing = h["err"] is not None and (
h["ok"] is None or h["err"] > h["ok"])
if ok:
h["ok"] = time.time()
h["extra"] = extra
if was_failing:
logger.info("Source recovered: %s", name)
else:
h["err"] = time.time()
h["detail"] = detail
if was_failing:
logger.debug("Source still failing: %s (%s)", name, detail)
else:
logger.warning("Source failing: %s (%s)", name, detail)
@staticmethod
def source_is_failing(entry: Optional[dict]) -> bool:
"""True when the entry's last error is newer than its last ok."""
return bool(entry and entry["err"] is not None and
(entry["ok"] is None or entry["err"] > entry["ok"]))
def _cached_fetch(self, cache_attr: str, fetch_fn) -> list:
"""Return cached data for `cache_attr` or refetch when the TTL
expired. Successful results live for context_cache_ttl_seconds;
@@ -577,27 +389,14 @@ class NewsEngine:
Returns an empty list (with a log warning) if unavailable —
we never generate fake events since that causes constant false alarms.
"""
sources = (
(self._try_fetch_calendar_api, "calendar:forexfactory",
"ForexFactory"),
(self._try_fetch_myfxbook_rss, "calendar:myfxbook", "MyFXBook"),
)
for fetcher, src, label in sources:
for fetcher in (self._try_fetch_calendar_api, self._try_fetch_myfxbook_rss):
try:
events = fetcher()
if events:
self._record_source(src, True)
self._record_source(
"calendar", True,
extra=f"{len(events)} events via {label}")
return events
self._record_source(src, False, "no events returned")
except Exception as e:
self._record_source(
src, False, f"{type(e).__name__}: {e}")
logger.debug(f"Calendar fetch exception ({fetcher.__name__}): {e}")
self._record_source("calendar", False, "all sources failed")
logger.info(
"Economic calendar data unavailable. "
"Event risk checks will be skipped for this cycle."
@@ -744,16 +543,11 @@ class NewsEngine:
"""Fetch and analyze news headlines for sentiment."""
headlines = []
seen_titles = set()
ok_feeds = 0
for feed_url in self.config.rss_feeds:
host = feed_url.split("/")[2] if "//" in feed_url else feed_url
kept_before = len(headlines)
try:
resp = self._session.get(feed_url, timeout=10)
if resp.status_code != 200:
self._record_source(
f"rss:{host}", False, f"HTTP {resp.status_code}")
continue
root = ET.fromstring(resp.content)
@@ -770,8 +564,8 @@ class NewsEngine:
pub_date_el.text if pub_date_el is not None else None
)
# Only recent headlines (configurable: headline_max_age_seconds)
if pub_date and (datetime.now(timezone.utc) - pub_date).total_seconds() > self.config.headline_max_age_seconds:
# Only recent headlines (last 24h)
if pub_date and (datetime.now(timezone.utc) - pub_date).total_seconds() > 86400:
continue
# Dedup within and across feeds so a syndicated story
@@ -786,21 +580,6 @@ class NewsEngine:
currencies = self._extract_currencies(title)
if currencies:
link_el = item.find("link")
desc_el = item.find("description")
src_el = item.find("source")
# itertext() survives CDATA and stray child
# elements where .text stops at the first child.
desc = _clean_html_text(
"".join(desc_el.itertext())
if desc_el is not None else None)
# Google News descriptions are often just the
# headline again inside an anchor — worthless.
if desc and desc.strip() == title.strip():
desc = None
publisher = None
if src_el is not None:
publisher = (src_el.text or "").strip() or None
headlines.append(NewsSentiment(
headline=title,
source=feed_url,
@@ -812,32 +591,11 @@ class NewsEngine:
cur: self._analyze_headline_sentiment(title, cur)
for cur in currencies
},
link=_safe_link(
link_el.text if link_el is not None else None),
description=desc,
publisher=publisher,
))
ok_feeds += 1
self._record_source(
f"rss:{host}", True,
extra=f"{len(headlines) - kept_before} kept")
except Exception as e:
self._record_source(
f"rss:{host}", False, f"{type(e).__name__}: {e}")
logger.debug(f"Failed to fetch RSS from {feed_url}: {e}")
self._record_source(
"headlines", ok_feeds > 0,
detail="all feeds failed" if ok_feeds == 0 else "",
extra=(f"{len(headlines)} headlines from "
f"{ok_feeds}/{len(self.config.rss_feeds)} feeds"))
try:
self._apply_llm_sentiment(headlines)
except Exception as e:
logger.debug(f"LLM sentiment failed, keyword scores stand: {e}")
return headlines
def _analyze_headline_sentiment(
@@ -879,142 +637,6 @@ class NewsEngine:
return (bullish_score - bearish_score) / total
# ── DeepSeek enrichment (display/warning-only, keyword fallback) ──
def _llm_headline_scores(
self, texts: List[str]
) -> Optional[List[Tuple[float, float]]]:
"""One batched DeepSeek call → [(overall, xau), ...] aligned with
`texts`, or None on any failure/mismatch (caller keeps keyword
scores). Tests stub this method directly."""
result = get_llm_client().chat_json(
_LLM_SENTIMENT_SYSTEM, {"headlines": texts})
if not result:
return None
scores = result.get("scores")
if not isinstance(scores, list) or len(scores) != len(texts):
return None
out = []
for item in scores:
try:
s = max(-1.0, min(1.0, float(item[0])))
x = max(-1.0, min(1.0, float(item[1])))
except (TypeError, KeyError, ValueError, IndexError):
return None
out.append((s, x))
return out
def _apply_llm_sentiment(self, headlines: List[NewsSentiment]) -> None:
"""Overwrite keyword sentiment on `headlines` with LLM scores.
Runs inside _cached_fetch, i.e. UNDER _cache_lock — cache access
is direct and the (rare) HTTP call blocks sibling scans at most
once per cache window, matching the existing shared-fetch design.
Only headlines missing from the cache are sent; a failed batch
changes nothing.
"""
if not headlines or not get_llm_client().available:
return
cache = NewsEngine._llm_sent_cache
keyed = [(hashlib.sha1(h.headline.encode()).hexdigest(), h)
for h in headlines]
# Cap the batch so the reply fits the client's max_tokens — the
# overflow stays keyword-scored this cycle and, still uncached,
# goes out with the next window's batch.
new = [(k, h) for k, h in keyed if k not in cache][:25]
if new:
scores = self._llm_headline_scores([h.headline for _, h in new])
if scores is not None:
for (k, _), sc in zip(new, scores):
cache[k] = sc
while len(cache) > self._LLM_SENT_CACHE_MAX:
cache.pop(next(iter(cache)))
for k, h in keyed:
sc = cache.get(k)
if sc is None:
continue
overall, xau = sc
h.sentiment_score = overall
h.sentiment_by_currency = {
cur: (xau if cur == "XAU" else overall)
for cur in h.currencies_mentioned
}
def _llm_event_direction(self, event: EconomicEvent) -> Optional[str]:
"""Gold direction for a released surprise, e.g. "bearish: strong
jobs lift yields". None → caller keeps the numeric description.
Cached per release; failures are NOT cached (retry next scan).
The actual-vs-forecast comparison is precomputed and sent as
"vs_forecast": the 2026-08-06 validation found the model reads
close K/M-suffixed pairs backwards ~11% of the time (e.g. claims
202K vs 217K called "higher than forecast") when left to compare
the raw numbers itself."""
key = (event.event, event.currency, str(event.actual or ""))
with NewsEngine._cache_lock:
if key in NewsEngine._llm_event_cache:
return NewsEngine._llm_event_cache[key] or None
client = get_llm_client()
if not client.available:
return None
vs_forecast = {
"positive": "above forecast",
"negative": "below forecast",
"inline": "in line with forecast",
}.get(event.surprise or "", "unknown")
result = client.chat_json(_LLM_EVENT_SYSTEM, {
"event": event.event,
"currency": event.currency,
"actual": event.actual,
"forecast": event.forecast,
"previous": event.previous,
"vs_forecast": vs_forecast,
})
if not result:
return None
direction = result.get("gold_direction")
if direction not in ("bullish", "bearish", "neutral"):
return None
reason = str(result.get("reason", "")).strip()[:80]
text = "" if direction == "neutral" else (
f"{direction}: {reason}" if reason else direction)
with NewsEngine._cache_lock:
NewsEngine._llm_event_cache[key] = text
while len(NewsEngine._llm_event_cache) > self._LLM_EVENT_CACHE_MAX:
NewsEngine._llm_event_cache.pop(
next(iter(NewsEngine._llm_event_cache)))
return text or None
def _llm_market_summary(self, context: FundamentalContext) -> str:
"""1-2 sentence macro blurb for alerts; "" when unavailable.
Cached (success OR failure) for the context-cache TTL so at most
one call is made per window."""
with NewsEngine._cache_lock:
ts, cached = NewsEngine._llm_summary_cache
if time.time() - ts < self.config.context_cache_ttl_seconds:
return cached
high_impact = [e for e in context.events_today if e.is_high_impact]
if not context.news_headlines and not high_impact:
return ""
client = get_llm_client()
if not client.available:
return ""
result = client.chat_json(_LLM_SUMMARY_SYSTEM, {
"headlines": [h.headline for h in context.news_headlines[:15]],
"events": [
{"event": e.event, "currency": e.currency,
"actual": e.actual, "forecast": e.forecast,
"released": not e.is_upcoming}
for e in high_impact[:10]
],
})
summary = ""
if result:
summary = str(result.get("summary", "")).strip()[:300]
with NewsEngine._cache_lock:
NewsEngine._llm_summary_cache = (time.time(), summary)
return summary
def _extract_currencies(self, headline: str) -> List[str]:
"""Extract mentioned currencies from a headline."""
headline_lower = headline.lower()
+54 -133
View File
@@ -90,17 +90,8 @@ STATE_FILE = os.path.join(
def _oanda_setting_int(env_key: str, json_key: str, default: int) -> int:
env = os.environ.get(env_key)
if env:
try:
return int(env)
except ValueError:
raise SystemExit(
f"{env_key}={env!r} is not an integer — refusing to start")
try:
return int(get_app_config().oanda_settings.get(json_key, default))
except (TypeError, ValueError):
raise SystemExit(
f"config.json oanda.{json_key} is not an integer — "
f"refusing to start")
return int(env)
return int(get_app_config().oanda_settings.get(json_key, default))
def _oanda_setting_str(env_key: str, json_key: str, default: str) -> str:
@@ -139,11 +130,8 @@ def _seconds_until_boundary(interval_minutes: int, buffer: int = 10) -> float:
elapsed_seconds = elapsed_minutes * 60 + now.second + now.microsecond / 1e6
interval_seconds = interval_minutes * 60
remaining = interval_seconds - elapsed_seconds + buffer
# NOTE: remaining > buffer always (elapsed < interval by construction);
# a call at the exact boundary instant targets the NEXT boundary —
# steady-state loops wake at boundary+buffer, so only a process
# started in the boundary microsecond skips one scan (2026-08-04
# audit I42; the old `remaining <= buffer` guard was unreachable).
if remaining <= buffer:
remaining += interval_seconds
return remaining
# ── Trade state persistence ───────────────────────────────────────────
@@ -177,13 +165,7 @@ class TradingDaemon:
base_url = oanda_base_url()
lot_size = _oanda_setting_int("OANDA_LOT_SIZE", "lot_size", 1)
self._quality_gate = _oanda_setting_str(
"OANDA_QUALITY_GATE", "quality_gate", "C").strip()
if self._quality_gate not in QUALITY_RANK:
# Fail CLOSED: an unrecognized gate must never silently fall
# back to the most permissive rank (QUALITY_RANK.get default).
raise SystemExit(
f"OANDA_QUALITY_GATE/quality_gate {self._quality_gate!r} "
f"is not one of {sorted(QUALITY_RANK)} — refusing to start")
"OANDA_QUALITY_GATE", "quality_gate", "C")
self._max_hold_bars = _oanda_setting_int(
"OANDA_MAX_HOLD_BARS", "max_hold_bars", 300)
self._price_precision = PAIR_INFO[SYMBOL]["price_precision"]
@@ -293,86 +275,60 @@ class TradingDaemon:
# ── Position discovery (restart recovery) ──────────────────────
def _discover_existing_positions(self) -> None:
self._reconcile_positions("boot discovery")
def _reconcile_positions(self, reason: str) -> None:
"""Re-sync tracked state with the broker's open trades. Safe to
call mid-run (lock-guarded); used at boot and whenever a fill or
placement error suggests state and broker may have diverged."""
try:
open_trades = self._executor.get_open_trades(INSTRUMENT)
except OandaAPIError:
logger.exception(
"Failed to query open trades (%s) — reconcile skipped",
reason)
logger.exception("Failed to query open trades at boot")
return
saved = self._state.get("trades", {})
live_ids = {t["id"] for t in open_trades}
with self._state_lock:
saved = self._state.get("trades", {})
stale = [tid for tid in saved if tid not in live_ids]
for tid in stale:
logger.info(
"Stale trade %s in state file (closed on Oanda), removing", tid)
del saved[tid]
stale = [tid for tid in saved if tid not in live_ids]
for tid in stale:
for trade in open_trades:
tid = trade["id"]
if tid in saved:
logger.info(
"Stale trade %s in state file (closed on Oanda), "
"removing", tid)
del saved[tid]
"Recovered trade %s from state: %s %s @ %.2f, SL %.2f",
tid, saved[tid].get("direction"), INSTRUMENT,
saved[tid].get("entry"), saved[tid].get("current_sl"))
continue
for trade in open_trades:
tid = trade["id"]
if tid in saved:
logger.info(
"Recovered trade %s from state: %s %s @ %.2f, SL %.2f",
tid, saved[tid].get("direction"), INSTRUMENT,
saved[tid].get("entry"), saved[tid].get("current_sl"))
continue
direction = "BUY" if float(trade.get("currentUnits", 0)) > 0 else "SELL"
entry = float(trade.get("price", 0))
sl_order = trade.get("stopLossOrder", {})
sl = float(sl_order.get("price", entry))
risk = abs(entry - sl) if sl else 1.0
direction = ("BUY" if float(trade.get("currentUnits", 0)) > 0
else "SELL")
entry = float(trade.get("price", 0))
sl_order = trade.get("stopLossOrder") or {}
sl_price = sl_order.get("price")
if sl_price is None:
# No broker-side stop at all: risk is undefined, so the
# trailing model cannot manage this trade. Scream — a
# naked position needs a human (or a policy) to set a
# stop; fabricating one here would invent trading
# behavior the books never validated.
logger.critical(
"Adopted trade %s (%s @ %.2f) has NO STOP LOSS on "
"the broker — it will NOT be trailed. Set a stop "
"manually or close it.", tid, direction, entry)
sl = entry
risk = 0.0
else:
sl = float(sl_price)
risk = abs(entry - sl)
saved[tid] = {
"tf": "H1",
"direction": direction,
"entry": entry,
"sl_initial": sl,
"current_sl": sl,
"risk": risk,
"peak": entry,
"trail_armed": False,
"trail_arm_r": 0.6,
"trail_dist_r": 0.75,
"bars_held": 0,
"last_bar_ts": None,
"signal_bar_ts": None,
}
logger.info(
"Adopted unknown trade %s: %s @ %.2f, SL %.2f, risk %.2f "
"(conservative defaults)",
tid, direction, entry, sl, risk)
saved[tid] = {
"tf": "H1",
"direction": direction,
"entry": entry,
"sl_initial": sl,
"current_sl": sl,
"risk": risk,
"peak": entry,
"trail_armed": False,
"trail_arm_r": 0.6,
"trail_dist_r": 0.75,
"bars_held": 0,
"last_bar_ts": None,
"signal_bar_ts": None,
}
logger.info(
"Adopted unknown trade %s: %s @ %.2f, SL %.2f, risk %.2f "
"(conservative defaults)",
tid, direction, entry, sl, risk)
self._state["trades"] = saved
_save_state(self._state)
self._state["trades"] = saved
_save_state(self._state)
logger.info(
"Position reconcile (%s): %d active trade(s)", reason, len(saved))
"Position discovery: %d active trade(s)", len(saved))
# ── Candle-boundary loop ───────────────────────────────────────
@@ -565,15 +521,9 @@ class TradingDaemon:
stop_loss=ts.stop_loss,
)
except OandaAPIError:
# The order is never retried (a timeout after a server-side
# fill would double-up on retry), but the server MAY have
# filled before the error reached us — reconcile so a live
# position can't stay untracked until the next restart.
logger.exception(
"Failed to place %s order for %s %s — reconciling "
"broker positions",
"Failed to place %s order for %s %s",
ts.direction, SYMBOL, tf.value)
self._reconcile_positions("order placement error")
return
fill_tx = result.get("orderFillTransaction")
@@ -585,16 +535,7 @@ class TradingDaemon:
trade_opened = fill_tx.get("tradeOpened", {})
trade_id = trade_opened.get("tradeID")
if not trade_id:
# A fill with no tradeOpened means the order interacted
# with an existing broker position (tradesClosed /
# tradeReduced on a netting account) — state and broker
# have diverged. Surface it and re-sync instead of
# silently forgetting a real fill.
logger.critical(
"Order FILLED but opened no trade (netting close/"
"reduce?) — fill: closed=%s reduced=%s. Reconciling.",
fill_tx.get("tradesClosed"), fill_tx.get("tradeReduced"))
self._reconcile_positions("fill without tradeOpened")
logger.warning("No trade ID in fill response")
return
fill_price = float(fill_tx.get("price", ts.entry_price))
@@ -646,12 +587,8 @@ class TradingDaemon:
# ── Trailing stop management ───────────────────────────────────
def _manage_trailing(self, tf: Timeframe) -> None:
# Copy the per-trade dicts too: the loop mutates info (peak,
# bars_held, last_bar_ts) and must not touch live state outside
# the lock — another thread may be serializing it in _save_state.
with self._state_lock:
trades = {tid: dict(info)
for tid, info in self._state.get("trades", {}).items()}
trades = dict(self._state.get("trades", {}))
for trade_id, info in trades.items():
if info.get("tf") != tf.value:
@@ -697,16 +634,13 @@ class TradingDaemon:
self._executor.close_trade(trade_id)
except OandaAPIError:
# Keep tracking — the trade is still live on the
# broker (incl. a 200 whose close order was cancelled,
# e.g. MARKET_HALTED — close_trade raises on no-fill);
# we retry the close at the next bar.
# broker; we retry the close at the next bar.
logger.exception(
"Failed to close timed-out trade %s — will retry",
trade_id)
with self._state_lock:
if trade_id in self._state["trades"]:
self._state["trades"][trade_id] = info
_save_state(self._state)
self._state["trades"][trade_id] = info
_save_state(self._state)
continue
with self._state_lock:
self._state["trades"].pop(trade_id, None)
@@ -717,14 +651,6 @@ class TradingDaemon:
bar_high = float(last_bar["High"])
bar_low = float(last_bar["Low"])
if info.get("risk", 0) <= 0:
# Adopted naked position (no broker SL → risk undefined):
# never manageable by the trailing model — keep it loud
# instead of silently skipping forever.
logger.warning(
"Trade %s has risk<=0 (no stop loss) — trailing "
"skipped; set a stop manually", trade_id)
new_sl = self._compute_trail(info, bar_high, bar_low)
if new_sl is not None:
@@ -741,13 +667,8 @@ class TradingDaemon:
trade_id)
with self._state_lock:
# Write back ONLY if the trade is still tracked — another
# loop's _check_closed_trades may have popped it while we
# iterated (broker-side close). Re-inserting would create
# a ghost that blocks new entries.
if trade_id in self._state["trades"]:
self._state["trades"][trade_id] = info
_save_state(self._state)
self._state["trades"][trade_id] = info
_save_state(self._state)
def _compute_trail(
self, info: Dict, bar_high: float, bar_low: float
+1 -19
View File
@@ -69,13 +69,6 @@ class OandaExecutor:
"instrument": instrument,
"units": signed_units,
"timeInForce": "FOK",
# The book model is one position total; on a netting
# account an opposite-side order would silently CLOSE an
# existing (possibly untracked) position instead of opening
# the signal trade. OPEN_ONLY makes that case fail loudly
# (order cancelled) so the divergence surfaces instead of
# executing an unintended close.
"positionFill": "OPEN_ONLY",
"stopLossOnFill": {
"price": self._fmt_price(stop_loss),
},
@@ -163,18 +156,7 @@ class OandaExecutor:
f"/trades/{trade_id}/close")
resp = self._request_with_retry("PUT", url, json={"units": "ALL"})
data = self._parse_json(resp)
close_tx = data.get("orderFillTransaction")
if not close_tx:
# A 200 whose close order was created but NOT filled (e.g.
# cancelled with MARKET_HALTED during the settlement pause)
# means the position is STILL OPEN. Raising keeps the caller
# tracking it and retrying — silently returning here would
# orphan a live position.
reason = data.get("orderCancelTransaction", {}).get(
"reason", "no orderFillTransaction in response")
raise OandaAPIError(
f"Close of trade {trade_id} did not fill: {reason}",
resp.status_code, str(data)[:300])
close_tx = data.get("orderFillTransaction", {})
close_price = float(close_tx.get("price", 0))
pl = float(close_tx.get("pl", 0))
logger.info(
-61
View File
@@ -117,54 +117,6 @@ campaign: an M5 hour-22 block (+4.8R on 12mo — the burst-heavy
specific); M15 hour-16 unblock (+0.8R/+57 trades 12mo but -18.3R
DD +34% on 5yr); every SELL-gate/vol/TP-size relaxation retested
negative (see memory notes for the full grid).
M5 override 4 — XAU_PB disabled (validated 2026-08-04, Oanda bars,
$0.65 REAL spread — first campaign validated at measured cost on the
live feed, per the 2026-08-04 re-pin baseline): m5_pullback_enabled
False on M5. Loss forensics on the Oanda books identified XAU_PB as
the largest wrong-direction loss source (12mo: -43.5R of the -156.6R
wrong-direction bucket; 5yr: -274.5R). Disabling: 12mo +96.6R/588
PF 1.44 max DD 13.9R halves +51.2/+45.4 vs +82.3R/788 PF 1.26 DD
23.9R shipped (which FAILS the PF>=1.3 clause at real cost); OOS
2024-06-01 -> 2025-03-30 +9.5R PF 1.34; 5yr +123.9R/956 PF 1.35 vs
PF 1.16 with PB. PB's 5yr net contribution (+23.6R) was almost
entirely the 2022 chop year (+36.1R vs -2.2R without) — a regime
earner that has been a drag on trend-regime bars since; its tight
stops are also the most cost-punished at $0.65. PB code and the
pb_trail_* params STAY for future regime-gated experiments (same
pattern as cp_enabled). Rejected in the same campaign (4 candidates
total, N logged): hour-19 block (+3.7R 12mo but -3.3R OOS, -1.5R
5yr — OOS gate, the classic trap); hours-14/15 block (-6.9R 12mo
once PB is removed — their raw negativity WAS the PB losses);
trail_dist_r 0.75 (-2.6R 12mo; the 0.88R average give-back is the
validated price of riding trends, exits confirmed NOT the loss
driver: exit-management accounts for 1-2% of lost R vs 50%
wrong-direction / 49% entry-timing).
M5 override 5 — EMA partial-alignment squash (validated 2026-08-04,
Oanda bars, $0.65 real spread): ema_partial_neutral True on M5 —
partial 4-EMA ribbon alignment (2-3 of 4 checks) scores NEUTRAL
instead of a weak BUY/SELL. Motivated by the indicator audit: partial-
alignment trades averaged -0.008R/84 vs +0.230R/341 fully aligned.
Replay (knob mirrored in the backtester's precomputed EMA scorer in
the same commit — live==backtest parity): 12mo +97.6R/556 PF 1.48
DD 10.7R halves +47.8/+49.8 vs control +96.6R/588 PF 1.44 DD 13.9R;
5yr +127.4R/912 PF 1.38 DD 12.8R vs +123.9R/956 PF 1.35 DD 13.2R,
2022 improves -2.2 -> -1.1; OOS 2024-06-01 -> 2025-03-30 +9.4R
PF 1.33 vs +9.5R PF 1.34 — a one-trade tie, documented as such (the
OOS window holds up; it neither prefers nor punishes). Net effect:
32 fewer marginal trades, every risk-adjusted measure better.
Rejected in the same round (trial-logged): confirmation-TF swap
M5->[M15,H4] (12mo +104.0R PF 1.51 DD 10.3 but OOS +7.8R PF 1.27
vs control +9.5R PF 1.34 and 2022 3x worse — the H4 confirm keeps
endorsing stale direction in chop; OOS-ordering rejection, same
precedent as trail dist 1.0); confirm [H1,H4] (-31.8R 12mo);
triple-confirm [M15,H1,H4] (-4.9R); divergence weight -1/3
(-3.8R 12mo); candlestick weight +50% (-3.0R 12mo). The weight
vector keeps proving calibrated as a system: divergence/candlestick/
bollinger all look mis-weighted in-book and all replay worse when
"fixed" (bollinger weight-0: +80.9R PF 1.29 DD 23.8 — its constant
oppose vote is a load-bearing quality bar, like ROC).
"""
from typing import Optional, List
@@ -197,22 +149,9 @@ def make_config(
config.xau_strategy.blocked_hours_utc = [
h for h in config.xau_strategy.blocked_hours_utc if h != 21
] + [9]
# Deliberately NOT mirrored into config.backtest.blocked_hours_utc:
# that copy is the generic non-XAU fallback carrying the JSON base
# only. Propagating a gold-validated per-TF delta there would leak
# XAU-calibrated hours to a future pair (pair-isolation rule).
# Every XAU consumer branches to the xau_strategy copy. Enforced
# by the Module 13 test "M5 factory appends hour 9 on top of a
# JSON base".
# BUY-only chart patterns on M5 — see module docstring.
config.xau_strategy.cp_enabled = True
config.xau_strategy.cp_patterns = ["inv_hs", "double_bottom", "bull_flag"]
# XAU_PB pullback entries OFF — largest wrong-direction loss
# source at real cost on Oanda bars — see module docstring.
config.xau_strategy.m5_pullback_enabled = False
# Partial EMA-ribbon alignment scores NEUTRAL on M5 — its
# trades carried no edge — see module docstring.
config.technical.ema_partial_neutral = True
# Wider trailing distance on M5 only — see module docstring.
config.signals.trail_arm_r = 0.60
config.signals.trail_dist_r = 0.85
+7 -10
View File
@@ -6,13 +6,12 @@ caching, validation, boundary guarantees, and range pagination — the
behavior the signal pipeline depends on).
Adding a provider = one module implementing `_fetch_raw` + one registry
entry + one config.json `data_providers` block. The live candle feed is
selected by config.json `data_providers.active`; the optional
`data_providers.streaming` scalar selects a different provider for the
tick stream (level-breach monitor). Registration alone changes nothing.
entry + one config.json `data_providers` block. The live feed is selected
by config.json `data_providers.active`; registration alone changes
nothing.
"""
from typing import Dict, Optional
from typing import Dict
from app_config import AppConfigError, get_app_config
from config import PlatformConfig
@@ -30,11 +29,9 @@ PROVIDER_REGISTRY: Dict[str, type] = {
}
def make_data_provider(config: PlatformConfig,
name: Optional[str] = None) -> BaseDataProvider:
"""Build a provider by name (default: config.json data_providers.active)."""
if name is None:
name = get_app_config().active_provider
def make_data_provider(config: PlatformConfig) -> BaseDataProvider:
"""Build the ACTIVE data provider (config.json: data_providers.active)."""
name = get_app_config().active_provider
cls = PROVIDER_REGISTRY.get(name)
if cls is None:
raise AppConfigError(
+70 -179
View File
@@ -24,7 +24,6 @@ import time
from abc import ABC, abstractmethod
from datetime import datetime, timedelta
from typing import AsyncIterator, Callable, Dict, Optional, Sequence, Tuple
from zoneinfo import ZoneInfo
import pandas as pd
@@ -32,36 +31,19 @@ from config import PAIR_INFO, PlatformConfig, Timeframe, XAUUSD
logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
# The gold/FX market week is defined in New York time (see
# _is_forex_weekend); a fixed UTC hour is wrong for half the year.
_NY_TZ = ZoneInfo("America/New_York")
def _is_forex_weekend(now=None) -> bool:
"""Gold/FX market closed for the weekend.
The market week is anchored to NEW YORK time — Friday 17:00 ET →
Sunday 18:00 ET — not a fixed UTC hour. During US DST the feed
actually stops at 21:00 UTC (measured on 5 years of Oanda bars:
159/162 summer Fridays; winter close 22:00, winter reopen Sunday
23:00 UTC). The old hardcoded Fri 22:00→Sun 22:00 UTC rule produced
two false-"STALE DATA/feed lagging" hours every week (2026-08-04
audit I43, fixed per owner decision).
Kept as three deliberate copies (here, signal_aggregator.py,
gpu_backtest._is_xau_blocked_by_calendar) — a Module 21 test asserts
they agree hour-by-hour across DST transitions.
"""
"""Forex market closed: Friday 22:00 UTC → Sunday 22:00 UTC."""
if now is None:
now = pd.Timestamp.now(tz="UTC")
ny = now.astimezone(_NY_TZ)
wd = ny.weekday()
if wd == 4: # Friday
return ny.hour >= 17
if wd == 5: # Saturday
wd = now.weekday()
hour = now.hour
if wd == 4 and hour >= 22:
return True
if wd == 5:
return True
if wd == 6 and hour < 22:
return True
if wd == 6: # Sunday
return ny.hour < 18
return False
@@ -104,15 +86,9 @@ class BaseDataProvider(ABC):
self.config = config
self._cache: Dict[str, pd.DataFrame] = {}
self._cache_timestamps: Dict[str, float] = {}
# Requested fetch depth per key: a cached short frame must not
# satisfy a caller asking for a longer lookback.
self._cache_outputsize: Dict[str, int] = {}
# The bot shares one provider across a thread pool; cache eviction
# is check-then-act and needs locking.
self._cache_lock = threading.Lock()
# Single-flight: one API fetch per (symbol, TF) at a time; other
# threads wait and then read the cache.
self._inflight: Dict[str, threading.Event] = {}
# ── Abstract: the only provider-specific piece ─────────────────
@@ -143,97 +119,68 @@ class BaseDataProvider(ABC):
lookback_days = self.config.data_lookback_days
cache_key = f"{symbol}_{timeframe.value}"
now = time.time()
cache_ttl = self.CANDLE_SECONDS.get(timeframe, self.config.refresh_interval)
with self._cache_lock:
cached = self._cache.get(cache_key)
cached_at = self._cache_timestamps.get(cache_key)
if (
cached is not None
and cached_at is not None
and (now - cached_at) < cache_ttl
and not cached.empty
):
if (self._is_data_fresh(cached, symbol, timeframe)
and self._has_latest_closed_bar(cached, timeframe)):
return cached
logger.warning(f"{symbol} {timeframe.value}: cached data is stale, refetching")
with self._cache_lock:
self._cache.pop(cache_key, None)
self._cache_timestamps.pop(cache_key, None)
outputsize = max(
300,
min(int(lookback_days * self.BARS_PER_DAY[timeframe]) + 20,
self.MAX_BARS_PER_REQUEST),
)
df = self._fetch_raw(symbol, timeframe, outputsize)
df = self._drop_forming_candle(df, timeframe)
df = self._validate_and_clean(df, symbol, timeframe)
while True:
now = time.time()
cache_ttl = self.CANDLE_SECONDS.get(
timeframe, self.config.refresh_interval)
with self._cache_lock:
cached = self._cache.get(cache_key)
cached_at = self._cache_timestamps.get(cache_key)
cached_size = self._cache_outputsize.get(cache_key, 0)
if (
cached is not None
and cached_at is not None
and (now - cached_at) < cache_ttl
and not cached.empty
# A caller asking for MORE history than the cached fetch
# requested must not be served the short frame silently.
and cached_size >= outputsize
):
if (self._is_data_fresh(cached, symbol, timeframe)
and self._has_latest_closed_bar(cached, timeframe)):
return cached
logger.warning(f"{symbol} {timeframe.value}: cached data is stale, refetching")
with self._cache_lock:
self._cache.pop(cache_key, None)
self._cache_timestamps.pop(cache_key, None)
self._cache_outputsize.pop(cache_key, None)
# Single-flight: concurrent scans for the same (symbol, TF)
# must not each hit the API (the four TF loops fire together
# at aligned boundaries and Oanda has no client throttle).
# First caller claims the key and fetches; the rest wait,
# then re-check the cache.
with self._cache_lock:
inflight = self._inflight.get(cache_key)
if inflight is None:
self._inflight[cache_key] = threading.Event()
break
inflight.wait(timeout=90)
try:
df = self._fetch_raw(symbol, timeframe, outputsize)
df = self._drop_forming_candle(df, timeframe)
df = self._validate_and_clean(df, symbol, timeframe)
# The closed-bar guarantee must hold for FRESH responses too,
# not just cache hits: the scanner fires seconds after the
# boundary, and a lagging feed can answer without the
# just-closed bar — the scan would silently analyze (and
# session-check) the previous bar. Give the feed one short
# grace retry, then proceed loudly.
if not df.empty and not self._has_latest_closed_bar(df, timeframe):
time.sleep(self.FRESH_FETCH_RETRY_SECONDS)
try:
retry = self._fetch_raw(symbol, timeframe, outputsize)
retry = self._drop_forming_candle(retry, timeframe)
retry = self._validate_and_clean(retry, symbol, timeframe)
if retry is not None and not retry.empty:
df = retry
except DataIntegrityError as e:
logger.warning(
f"{symbol} {timeframe.value}: boundary retry refetch "
f"failed ({e}) — keeping original data")
if not self._has_latest_closed_bar(df, timeframe):
logger.warning(
f"{symbol} {timeframe.value}: feed lagging — just-closed bar "
f"still missing after retry; this scan may run one bar behind"
)
if not self._is_data_fresh(df, symbol, timeframe):
# The closed-bar guarantee must hold for FRESH responses too, not
# just cache hits: the scanner fires seconds after the boundary,
# and a lagging feed can answer without the just-closed bar — the
# scan would silently analyze (and session-check) the previous
# bar. Give the feed one short grace retry, then proceed loudly.
if not df.empty and not self._has_latest_closed_bar(df, timeframe):
time.sleep(self.FRESH_FETCH_RETRY_SECONDS)
try:
retry = self._fetch_raw(symbol, timeframe, outputsize)
retry = self._drop_forming_candle(retry, timeframe)
retry = self._validate_and_clean(retry, symbol, timeframe)
if retry is not None and not retry.empty:
df = retry
except DataIntegrityError as e:
logger.warning(
f"STALE DATA from API: {symbol} {timeframe.value} — "
f"last bar {df.index[-1]} is too old. Signal quality may be degraded."
f"{symbol} {timeframe.value}: boundary retry refetch "
f"failed ({e}) — keeping original data")
if not self._has_latest_closed_bar(df, timeframe):
logger.warning(
f"{symbol} {timeframe.value}: feed lagging — just-closed bar "
f"still missing after retry; this scan may run one bar behind"
)
with self._cache_lock:
self._cache[cache_key] = df
self._cache_timestamps[cache_key] = now
self._cache_outputsize[cache_key] = outputsize
return df
finally:
# Release waiters even when the fetch raised — they re-check
# the cache and (on a miss) claim the key themselves.
with self._cache_lock:
ev = self._inflight.pop(cache_key, None)
if ev is not None:
ev.set()
if not self._is_data_fresh(df, symbol, timeframe):
logger.warning(
f"STALE DATA from API: {symbol} {timeframe.value} — "
f"last bar {df.index[-1]} is too old. Signal quality may be degraded."
)
with self._cache_lock:
self._cache[cache_key] = df
self._cache_timestamps[cache_key] = now
return df
def fetch_range(
self,
@@ -252,7 +199,6 @@ class BaseDataProvider(ABC):
chunks = []
cursor_end = end
empty_streak = 0
error_streak = 0
while cursor_end > start:
cursor_start = max(start, cursor_end - timedelta(days=days_per_chunk))
try:
@@ -261,27 +207,19 @@ class BaseDataProvider(ABC):
start=cursor_start, end=cursor_end,
)
except Exception as e:
# A raising chunk is a PROVIDER ERROR (auth, 429, 5xx,
# malformed payload) — not "no data". Three in a row means
# the rest of the history is unreachable: raise instead of
# returning a silently truncated frame (the backtester
# would treat it as complete).
# Providers raise for windows with no data (weekends,
# holidays, asset gaps). Skip the window, step back, retry
# — but bail after a few consecutive empties.
logger.warning(
f"Chunk {cursor_start.date()}–{cursor_end.date()} failed: {e}"
)
error_streak += 1
if error_streak >= 3:
raise self.DATA_ERROR(
f"{symbol} {timeframe.value}: {error_streak} "
f"consecutive chunk failures walking back from "
f"{cursor_end.date()} — refusing to return "
f"truncated history (last error: {e})") from e
empty_streak += 1
if empty_streak >= 3:
break
cursor_end = cursor_start - timedelta(seconds=1)
continue
if chunk is None or chunk.empty:
# Genuinely empty windows (weekends/holidays/asset gaps)
# are normal; several in a row = start of history.
empty_streak += 1
if empty_streak >= 3:
break
@@ -289,18 +227,9 @@ class BaseDataProvider(ABC):
continue
empty_streak = 0
error_streak = 0
chunks.append(chunk)
# Step back; dedup on concat.
new_cursor = chunk.index[0] - timedelta(seconds=1)
if new_cursor >= cursor_end:
# A provider ignoring start/end would pin the cursor and
# loop forever — refuse to spin.
logger.warning(
f"{symbol} {timeframe.value}: pagination made no "
f"progress at {cursor_end} — stopping")
break
cursor_end = new_cursor
cursor_end = chunk.index[0] - timedelta(seconds=1)
if len(chunk) < 2:
break
@@ -314,17 +243,7 @@ class BaseDataProvider(ABC):
df = self._drop_forming_candle(df, timeframe)
start_ts = pd.Timestamp(start)
end_ts = pd.Timestamp(end)
df = df[(df.index >= start_ts) & (df.index <= end_ts)]
# Coverage sanity: a head materially later than the requested
# start means history was truncated (empty-streak bail or provider
# depth limit). Loud, not fatal — some assets genuinely start late.
if not df.empty and (df.index[0] - start_ts) > pd.Timedelta(days=7):
logger.error(
f"{symbol} {timeframe.value}: fetched history starts "
f"{df.index[0]} but {start_ts} was requested — "
f"~{(df.index[0] - start_ts).days} days missing from the "
f"head; treat downstream results accordingly")
return df
return df[(df.index >= start_ts) & (df.index <= end_ts)]
def is_data_fresh(
self, df: pd.DataFrame, symbol: str, timeframe: Timeframe
@@ -404,19 +323,8 @@ class BaseDataProvider(ABC):
return df
candle_seconds = self.CANDLE_SECONDS.get(timeframe, 3600)
now = pd.Timestamp.now(tz="UTC")
# Loop, not a single slice: a misbehaving feed can return MORE
# than one not-yet-closed bar, and a single iloc[:-1] would let
# the residual forming bar through cleaning (future-tolerance is
# +5 min) straight into the signal engine.
dropped = 0
while (not df.empty
and df.index[-1] + pd.Timedelta(seconds=candle_seconds) > now):
if df.index[-1] + pd.Timedelta(seconds=candle_seconds) > now:
df = df.iloc[:-1]
dropped += 1
if dropped > 1:
logger.warning(
"%s: feed returned %d forming/future bars — all dropped",
timeframe.value, dropped)
return df
def _is_data_fresh(self, df: pd.DataFrame, symbol: str, timeframe: Timeframe) -> bool:
@@ -464,20 +372,6 @@ class BaseDataProvider(ABC):
logger.warning(f"{symbol}: Dropping {future_mask.sum()} future timestamps")
df = df[~future_mask]
# Non-positive prices are corrupt, never real gold quotes. Reject
# the row BEFORE the consistency repair below — repairing High/Low
# from a corrupt 0.0 Open/Close would propagate the zero into
# previously-valid fields (2026-08-04 audit, I45).
nonpositive = (df[["Open", "High", "Low", "Close"]] <= 0).any(axis=1)
if nonpositive.any():
logger.warning(
f"{symbol}: Dropping {nonpositive.sum()} bars with "
f"non-positive prices (corrupt feed data)")
df = df[~nonpositive]
if df.empty:
raise self.DATA_ERROR(
f"{symbol}: all bars had non-positive prices")
invalid_ohlc = (
(df["High"] < df["Low"]) |
(df["High"] < df["Open"]) |
@@ -492,10 +386,7 @@ class BaseDataProvider(ABC):
df.loc[idx, "High"] = max(vals + [df.loc[idx, "High"]])
df.loc[idx, "Low"] = min(vals + [df.loc[idx, "Low"]])
# inf returns (division by a zero/na Close) would NaN the std and
# silently disarm the whole 10σ pass — neutralize them first.
returns = df["Close"].pct_change()
returns = returns.replace([float("inf"), float("-inf")], float("nan"))
std_ret = returns.std()
if std_ret > 0:
dev = returns - returns.mean()
+9 -49
View File
@@ -8,7 +8,6 @@ Oanda's candle JSON, and exposes the real bid/ask spread from MBA candles.
"""
import logging
import time
from datetime import datetime
from typing import Dict, Optional
@@ -32,7 +31,6 @@ class OandaDataProvider(BaseDataProvider):
name = "oanda"
DATA_ERROR = OandaDataError
RETRY_DELAY_S = 2.0
OANDA_GRANULARITY = {
Timeframe.M1: "M1",
@@ -126,35 +124,11 @@ class OandaDataProvider(BaseDataProvider):
else:
params["count"] = min(count, self.MAX_BARS_PER_REQUEST)
# One retry absorbs Oanda's sporadic spurious 401s (~15-20/day on
# the practice API — the same token succeeds on adjacent requests)
# plus transient 5xx/network faults. A real credential problem
# fails both attempts and raises exactly as before. Other 4xx
# (bad request, 429) are never retried.
last_err: Optional[OandaDataError] = None
for attempt in range(2):
if attempt:
time.sleep(self.RETRY_DELAY_S)
try:
resp = self._session.get(url, params=params, timeout=30)
except requests.RequestException as e:
last_err = OandaDataError(
f"Oanda candle fetch failed for {instrument}: {e}")
last_err.__cause__ = e
continue
if resp.status_code == 401 or resp.status_code >= 500:
last_err = OandaDataError(
f"Oanda candle fetch failed for {instrument}: "
f"HTTP {resp.status_code}: {resp.text[:300]}")
if attempt == 0:
logger.warning(
f"Oanda fetch for {instrument} got HTTP "
f"{resp.status_code}; retrying in "
f"{self.RETRY_DELAY_S}s")
continue
break
else:
raise last_err
try:
resp = self._session.get(url, params=params, timeout=30)
except requests.RequestException as e:
raise OandaDataError(
f"Oanda candle fetch failed for {instrument}: {e}") from e
if resp.status_code != 200:
raise OandaDataError(
@@ -175,37 +149,23 @@ class OandaDataProvider(BaseDataProvider):
rows = []
last_bid_close = None
last_ask_close = None
skipped_malformed = 0
for c in candles:
if not c.get("complete", False):
continue
mid = c.get("mid", {})
bid = c.get("bid", {})
ask = c.get("ask", {})
# A candle missing any OHLC field must be SKIPPED, never
# defaulted to 0.0: a zero price flows through cleaning as a
# "legit" bar and poisons ATR/Keltner/SL math — and a
# mid-frame zero Close makes pct_change() emit inf, which
# NaNs the std and disarms the 10σ outlier filter for the
# whole frame (2026-08-04 audit, I45).
if any(mid.get(k) is None for k in ("o", "h", "l", "c")):
skipped_malformed += 1
continue
rows.append({
"Datetime": pd.Timestamp(c["time"]).tz_convert("UTC"),
"Open": float(mid["o"]),
"High": float(mid["h"]),
"Low": float(mid["l"]),
"Close": float(mid["c"]),
"Open": float(mid.get("o", 0)),
"High": float(mid.get("h", 0)),
"Low": float(mid.get("l", 0)),
"Close": float(mid.get("c", 0)),
"Volume": int(c.get("volume", 0)),
})
if bid and ask:
last_bid_close = float(bid.get("c", 0))
last_ask_close = float(ask.get("c", 0))
if skipped_malformed:
logger.warning(
"Oanda returned %d malformed candle(s) for %s (missing "
"OHLC fields) — skipped", skipped_malformed, instrument)
if not rows:
raise OandaDataError(
+3 -109
View File
@@ -10,18 +10,15 @@ Tiingo's JSON into the normalized frame.
Every failure mode raises `TiingoDataError` (a `DataIntegrityError`)
with a specific message — the scan loops log it and carry on; nothing
fails silently. NOTE: candles and mid-price ticks only. Tiingo's free
fails silently. NOTE: this is the CANDLE feed only. Tiingo's free
`/tiingo/fx/top` quote endpoint publishes indicative two-tier spreads
and must not be used for spread display (removed 2026-07-23) —
`get_spread` deliberately stays on the base-class default, and the
WebSocket stream (`iter_ticks`) exposes the mid price only, never
bid/ask or a derived spread.
`get_spread` deliberately stays on the base-class default.
"""
import json
import logging
from datetime import datetime
from typing import AsyncIterator, Callable, Optional, Sequence, Tuple
from typing import Optional
import pandas as pd
import requests
@@ -201,106 +198,3 @@ class TiingoDataProvider(BaseDataProvider):
"Fetched %d bars for %s @ %s from Tiingo",
len(df), ticker, resample)
return df
# ── Streaming quotes ───────────────────────────────────────────
supports_streaming = True
WS_URL = "wss://api.tiingo.com/fx"
@staticmethod
def _parse_ws_message(raw: str) -> Optional[Tuple[str, float]]:
"""Parse one WS message; return (tiingo_ticker, mid_price) for
quote updates, None for heartbeats ("H"), subscription acks
("I"), malformed JSON, or quotes without a usable price.
Server error messages ("E", e.g. bad token) RAISE TiingoDataError:
Tiingo authenticates inside the socket via the subscribe message,
so an auth failure arrives as a data message followed by a clean
close — swallowing it would make the caller's reconnect loop
hammer the endpoint with no backoff (backoff only grows on
exceptions).
"""
try:
msg = json.loads(raw)
except json.JSONDecodeError:
logger.warning("Tiingo WS: malformed JSON, skipping")
return None
mtype = msg.get("messageType")
if mtype == "H":
return None
if mtype == "I":
logger.info("Tiingo WS: subscription acknowledged")
return None
if mtype == "E":
raise TiingoDataError(
f"Tiingo WS server error: {str(msg.get('response'))[:200]}")
if mtype != "A":
return None
data = msg.get("data")
if not isinstance(data, list) or len(data) < 8 or data[0] != "Q":
return None
# Live-verified field order (2026-08-03): ["Q", ticker, timestamp,
# bidSize, bid, mid, askSize, ask] — ask is index 7, NOT 6 as the
# docs' table suggests (index 6 is askSize).
ticker = data[1]
bid, mid, ask = data[4], data[5], data[7]
if mid is None and bid is not None and ask is not None:
mid = (bid + ask) / 2
try:
return ticker, float(mid)
except (TypeError, ValueError):
logger.warning("Tiingo WS: quote for %s has no usable price",
ticker)
return None
async def iter_ticks(
self,
symbols: Sequence[str],
on_connect: Optional[Callable[[], None]] = None,
) -> AsyncIterator[Tuple[str, float]]:
"""One connection's lifetime of (canonical_symbol, mid) ticks.
The caller owns the reconnect/backoff loop around this generator.
Divergences from the Twelve Data reference implementation, both
deliberate: `on_connect` fires on the FIRST RECEIVED message (the
"I" ack in practice) rather than after the subscribe send, so a
rejected token cannot reset the caller's backoff; and there is no
client heartbeat task — Tiingo sends "H" frames itself and the
websockets library's built-in ping keepalive detects dead sockets.
"""
import websockets
if self._api_key is None:
raise TiingoDataError(
"No Tiingo API key. Set the TIINGO_API_KEY env var or "
"data_providers.tiingo.api_key in config.json.")
ws_to_pair = {self._to_tiingo_ticker(s): s for s in symbols}
async with websockets.connect(self.WS_URL) as ws:
await ws.send(json.dumps({
"eventName": "subscribe",
"authorization": self._api_key,
"eventData": {
"thresholdLevel": 5,
"tickers": sorted(ws_to_pair),
},
}))
logger.info(
"Tiingo WS connected, subscribing to %d tickers",
len(ws_to_pair))
connected = False
async for raw in ws:
parsed = self._parse_ws_message(raw)
if not connected:
connected = True
if on_connect is not None:
on_connect()
if parsed is None:
continue
pair_symbol = ws_to_pair.get(parsed[0])
if pair_symbol is None:
continue
yield pair_symbol, parsed[1]
+2 -11
View File
@@ -210,12 +210,6 @@ class TwelveDataProvider(BaseDataProvider):
The TD WS speaks display symbols ("XAU/USD"); ticks are mapped back
to the canonical pair symbols passed in. The caller owns the
reconnect/backoff loop around this generator.
`on_connect` fires on the FIRST RECEIVED frame, not after the
subscribe send (2026-08-04 audit H38b, mirroring the Tiingo
provider) — firing pre-receive let a rejected API key reset the
caller's reconnect backoff on every attempt, pinning it at the
minimum forever.
"""
import websockets
@@ -228,14 +222,11 @@ class TwelveDataProvider(BaseDataProvider):
}
await ws.send(json.dumps(subscribe))
logger.info(f"WebSocket connected, subscribed to {len(ws_to_pair)} symbols")
if on_connect is not None:
on_connect()
hb_task = asyncio.create_task(self._ws_heartbeat(ws))
connected = False
try:
async for raw in ws:
if not connected:
connected = True
if on_connect is not None:
on_connect()
parsed = self._parse_ws_price(raw)
if parsed is None:
continue
+9 -38
View File
@@ -10,12 +10,9 @@ import os
from dataclasses import dataclass, field
from datetime import datetime, timezone
from typing import Dict, List, Optional
from zoneinfo import ZoneInfo
import pandas as pd
_NY_TZ = ZoneInfo("America/New_York")
from chart_patterns import detect_chart_pattern
from config import PlatformConfig, SignalStrength, Timeframe
from providers import BaseDataProvider, make_data_provider
@@ -26,19 +23,15 @@ logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
def _is_forex_weekend(now_utc: datetime) -> bool:
"""Gold/FX market closed for the weekend: Friday 17:00 → Sunday 18:00
NEW YORK time (= Fri 21:00 UTC in US summer, 22:00 in winter —
matches measured Oanda feed behavior; 2026-08-04 audit I43).
Deliberate copy of providers.base._is_forex_weekend — a Module 21
test asserts the copies agree across DST transitions."""
ny = now_utc.astimezone(_NY_TZ)
wd = ny.weekday()
if wd == 4: # Friday
return ny.hour >= 17
if wd == 5: # Saturday
"""Forex market closed: Friday 22:00 UTC → Sunday 22:00 UTC (Sydney open)."""
wd = now_utc.weekday()
hour = now_utc.hour
if wd == 4 and hour >= 22: # Friday after 22:00
return True
if wd == 5: # All Saturday
return True
if wd == 6 and hour < 22: # Sunday before 22:00
return True
if wd == 6: # Sunday
return ny.hour < 18
return False
@@ -86,16 +79,6 @@ class SignalReport:
event_description: str = ""
news_sentiment: float = 0.0
news_description: str = ""
news_summary: str = "" # LLM market-context blurb (display-only)
# LLM agent-panel consensus (advisory/DISPLAY-ONLY). Populated
# post-hoc by consumers via agent_panel.attach_panel — NEVER inside
# analyze_from_dataframes (backtest parity) and never read by any
# gate or scoring path.
panel_verdict: str = "" # "AGREE" / "NEUTRAL" / "OPPOSE" / ""
panel_confidence: float = 0.0
panel_rationale: str = ""
panel_takes: List[Dict] = field(default_factory=list)
final_signal: SignalStrength = SignalStrength.NEUTRAL
final_score: float = 0.0
@@ -849,13 +832,11 @@ class SignalAggregator:
sentiment, sent_desc = news.get_pair_sentiment(symbol, context)
report.news_sentiment = sentiment
report.news_description = sent_desc
report.news_summary = context.llm_summary
else:
report.event_risk = "clear"
report.event_description = ""
report.news_sentiment = 0.0
report.news_description = ""
report.news_summary = ""
# ── 5. Spread estimate from primary data (avoids extra API call) ─
try:
@@ -1269,17 +1250,7 @@ class SignalAggregator:
ema200 = primary.key_levels.get("ema_trend")
if ema200 and ema200 > 0 and report.current_price > 0:
ema_dist_pct = abs(report.current_price - ema200) / ema200 * 100.0
# FB2_EMA_LO: research override for the EMA200-proximity
# penalty band; the tuned default is 0.5. An unparseable
# value must degrade to the default, never crash the scan
# (2026-08-04 audit; hardened per owner delegation).
try:
_lo = float(os.environ.get("FB2_EMA_LO", "0.5"))
except (TypeError, ValueError):
logger.warning(
"FB2_EMA_LO=%r is not a number — using tuned "
"default 0.5", os.environ.get("FB2_EMA_LO"))
_lo = 0.5
_lo = float(os.environ.get("FB2_EMA_LO", "0.5"))
if ema_dist_pct < _lo:
report.warnings.append(f"NEAR EMA200 ({ema_dist_pct:.2f}%) — chop risk")
penalties.append(("ema200_near", 5))
File diff suppressed because it is too large Load Diff
-245
View File
@@ -1,245 +0,0 @@
<?php
/**
* On-demand gold-impact AI summary for one published headline.
*
* The ONLY dynamic piece of the otherwise-static dashboard. Serves
* GET ?id=<sha1-of-headline> and returns {"summary": ..., "generated_at": ...}.
*
* Abuse model (the page is public):
* - WHITELIST: the id must match a headline in the local news.json —
* arbitrary text can never reach the LLM through this endpoint.
* - CACHE FOREVER: headlines are immutable, so each id costs at most
* one DeepSeek call, ever (ai/<id>.json). Cache is checked BEFORE
* the whitelist on purpose: summaries stay reachable after the
* headline ages out of the 24 h feed window.
* - DAILY CAP: file-based UTC-day counter, FAIL CLOSED on counter I/O
* errors (a perms mistake must not mean unmetered spend).
*
* DeepSeek doctrine (mirrors llm_client.py — deliberate local copy, the
* dashboard never imports bot code and this file never reads the repo's
* config.json):
* - STATIC byte-identical system prompt (prefix-cache pricing).
* - "thinking": disabled is MANDATORY for V4-Flash (else it burns the
* timeout reasoning), temperature 0, json response_format.
* - One attempt, no retries; every failure returns a JSON error the
* page renders as a graceful fallback.
*
* Key file lives OUTSIDE the docroot: /etc/gold-dashboard/deepseek.key
* (root:apache 640). Override paths/caps via Apache SetEnv:
* DEEPSEEK_KEY_FILE, AI_SUMMARY_DAILY_CAP.
*/
const NEWS_FILE = __DIR__ . '/news.json';
const CACHE_DIR = __DIR__ . '/ai'; // apache-owned; created at deploy time
const API_URL = 'https://api.deepseek.com/chat/completions';
const MODEL = 'deepseek-v4-flash';
const TIMEOUT = 12;
const MAX_TOKENS = 200;
const SUMMARY_MAX_CHARS = 400;
// .ht_ prefix: Apache's default <Files ".ht*"> rule denies these even
// though they sit in the public docroot.
const CAP_FILE = CACHE_DIR . '/.ht_cap.json';
const SYSTEM_PROMPT = <<<'PROMPT'
You are a forex/gold news analyst. You receive one news item as JSON:
{"headline", "description", "score", "xau_score", "keywords", "currencies"}.
"xau_score" is the platform's automated gold-effect score for this item,
-1.0 (gold down) to 1.0 (gold up); "score" is overall market sentiment.
Both are automated and can be wrong — judge the news yourself.
In 1-2 plain-English sentences (max 45 words) explain what this news
means for the GOLD (XAU/USD) price and WHY it is bullish, bearish, or
neutral. If your reading clearly contradicts xau_score, add "(the
automated score disagrees)". Never write the words "xau_score" or
"score" — a general reader sees this text.
Gold doctrine: hawkish Fed / rate hikes / rising real yields / strong
dollar are gold-bearish; easing / rate cuts / safe-haven flows /
geopolitical stress / weak dollar are gold-bullish.
Reply with ONLY JSON: {"summary": "..."}
PROMPT;
function respond(int $status, array $obj, string $cache = 'no-store'): void
{
http_response_code($status);
header('Content-Type: application/json; charset=utf-8');
header('Cache-Control: ' . $cache);
echo json_encode($obj, JSON_UNESCAPED_SLASHES | JSON_UNESCAPED_UNICODE);
exit;
}
function atomic_write(string $path, string $data): bool
{
$tmp = $path . '.tmp.' . getmypid();
if (@file_put_contents($tmp, $data) === false) {
return false;
}
if (!@rename($tmp, $path)) {
@unlink($tmp);
return false;
}
return true;
}
// ── 1. id validation ────────────────────────────────────────────────
$id = $_GET['id'] ?? '';
if (!preg_match('/^[a-f0-9]{40}$/', $id)) {
respond(400, ['error' => 'bad_id']);
}
// ── 2. cache first (immutable headlines → summaries never change) ───
$cachePath = CACHE_DIR . '/' . $id . '.json';
$cached = @file_get_contents($cachePath);
if ($cached !== false && $cached !== '') {
http_response_code(200);
header('Content-Type: application/json; charset=utf-8');
header('Cache-Control: max-age=3600');
echo $cached;
exit;
}
// ── 3. whitelist against the published feed ─────────────────────────
$news = json_decode((string)@file_get_contents(NEWS_FILE), true);
if (!is_array($news)) {
respond(503, ['error' => 'no_feed']);
}
$hit = null;
foreach ($news['headlines'] ?? [] as $h) {
// Fallback sha1(): a publisher that predates the id field still
// serves a valid whitelist during the restart window.
$hid = $h['id'] ?? sha1($h['headline'] ?? '');
if ($hid === $id) {
$hit = $h;
break;
}
}
if ($hit === null) {
respond(404, ['error' => 'unknown_id',
'message' => 'Headline is no longer in the feed.']);
}
// ── 4. daily cap (fail closed) ──────────────────────────────────────
$dailyCap = (int)(getenv('AI_SUMMARY_DAILY_CAP') ?: 150);
$capFh = @fopen(CAP_FILE, 'c+');
if ($capFh === false || !flock($capFh, LOCK_EX)) {
respond(503, ['error' => 'cap_io']);
}
$today = gmdate('Y-m-d');
$cap = json_decode((string)stream_get_contents($capFh), true);
if (!is_array($cap) || ($cap['day'] ?? '') !== $today) {
$cap = ['day' => $today, 'count' => 0];
}
if ($cap['count'] >= $dailyCap) {
flock($capFh, LOCK_UN);
fclose($capFh);
respond(429, ['error' => 'cap_exceeded']);
}
// Increment BEFORE the LLM call — attempts count against the cap
// (same semantics as llm_client._under_cap).
$cap['count']++;
rewind($capFh);
if (ftruncate($capFh, 0) === false
|| fwrite($capFh, json_encode($cap)) === false) {
flock($capFh, LOCK_UN);
fclose($capFh);
respond(503, ['error' => 'cap_io']);
}
fflush($capFh);
flock($capFh, LOCK_UN);
fclose($capFh);
// ── 5. API key ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────
$keyFile = getenv('DEEPSEEK_KEY_FILE') ?: '/etc/gold-dashboard/deepseek.key';
$apiKey = trim((string)@file_get_contents($keyFile));
if ($apiKey === '') {
respond(503, ['error' => 'no_key']);
}
// ── 6. per-id stampede lock, then re-check the cache ────────────────
$lockFh = @fopen(CACHE_DIR . '/.ht_lock_' . $id, 'c');
if ($lockFh !== false) {
flock($lockFh, LOCK_EX); // blocks while a concurrent winner generates
$cached = @file_get_contents($cachePath);
if ($cached !== false && $cached !== '') {
flock($lockFh, LOCK_UN);
fclose($lockFh);
http_response_code(200);
header('Content-Type: application/json; charset=utf-8');
header('Cache-Control: max-age=3600');
echo $cached;
exit;
}
}
// ── 7. DeepSeek call (exact chat_json body shape) ───────────────────
$userPayload = json_encode([
'headline' => $hit['headline'] ?? '',
'description' => $hit['description'] ?? null,
'score' => $hit['score'] ?? null,
'xau_score' => $hit['score_by_currency']['XAU'] ?? null,
'keywords' => $hit['keywords'] ?? [],
'currencies' => $hit['currencies'] ?? [],
], JSON_UNESCAPED_UNICODE);
$body = json_encode([
'model' => MODEL,
'messages' => [
['role' => 'system', 'content' => SYSTEM_PROMPT],
['role' => 'user', 'content' => $userPayload],
],
'response_format' => ['type' => 'json_object'],
'temperature' => 0,
'thinking' => ['type' => 'disabled'],
'max_tokens' => MAX_TOKENS,
]);
$ch = curl_init(API_URL);
curl_setopt_array($ch, [
CURLOPT_POST => true,
CURLOPT_POSTFIELDS => $body,
CURLOPT_HTTPHEADER => ['Content-Type: application/json',
'Authorization: Bearer ' . $apiKey],
CURLOPT_RETURNTRANSFER => true,
CURLOPT_TIMEOUT => TIMEOUT,
]);
$raw = curl_exec($ch);
$httpCode = curl_getinfo($ch, CURLINFO_RESPONSE_CODE);
curl_close($ch);
// ── 8. parse (any failure → 502, never cached) ──────────────────────
$summary = null;
if ($raw !== false && $httpCode === 200) {
$resp = json_decode($raw, true);
$content = $resp['choices'][0]['message']['content'] ?? '';
$parsed = json_decode((string)$content, true);
if (is_array($parsed) && is_string($parsed['summary'] ?? null)
&& trim($parsed['summary']) !== '') {
$summary = trim($parsed['summary']);
if (mb_strlen($summary) > SUMMARY_MAX_CHARS) {
$summary = mb_substr($summary, 0, SUMMARY_MAX_CHARS) . '…';
}
}
}
if ($lockFh !== false && $summary === null) {
flock($lockFh, LOCK_UN);
fclose($lockFh);
}
if ($summary === null) {
respond(502, ['error' => 'llm_failed']);
}
// ── 9. cache + respond ──────────────────────────────────────────────
$out = json_encode(['summary' => $summary, 'generated_at' => gmdate('c')],
JSON_UNESCAPED_SLASHES | JSON_UNESCAPED_UNICODE);
if (!atomic_write($cachePath, $out)) {
// Degrade to per-click generation rather than a broken feature —
// the daily cap still bounds spend.
error_log('news_summary.php: cache write failed for ' . $cachePath);
}
if ($lockFh !== false) {
flock($lockFh, LOCK_UN);
fclose($lockFh);
}
http_response_code(200);
header('Content-Type: application/json; charset=utf-8');
header('Cache-Control: max-age=3600');
echo $out;
+66 -400
View File
@@ -12,15 +12,11 @@ Auto-scan: Starts automatically on boot if TELEGRAM_CHAT_ID is set.
M15 fires at :00/:15/:30/:45 + 10s buffer.
H1 fires at :00 + 10s buffer.
H4 fires at :00 every 4 hours + 10s buffer.
WebSocket: Streams live ticks from the streaming provider — config.json
`data_providers.streaming` when set (e.g. tiingo), else the
active provider if it streams; auto-disabled otherwise.
WebSocket: Streams live ticks from TwelveData for XAU/USD.
When price crosses a key structure level (swing S/R, BB,
EMA200) cached from the last boundary scan, triggers an
immediate M15 scan and sends a Level Break Alert.
5-minute cooldown prevents spam.
News: /news replies with the net XAU/USD news sentiment score
(display-only — news never gates signals).
Owner lock: All commands and buttons only respond to TELEGRAM_CHAT_ID
(the owner). Everyone else gets a polite refusal — the bot
@@ -71,9 +67,6 @@ from app_config import (
telegram_channel_id,
)
from providers import BaseDataProvider, make_data_provider
from agent_panel import attach_panel, panel_health
from llm_client import get_llm_client
from news_engine import FundamentalContext, NewsEngine
from pair_signals import PAIR_PRODUCERS
from signal_aggregator import SignalAggregator, SignalReport
@@ -105,12 +98,6 @@ logging.basicConfig(level=getattr(logging, _APP.log_level, logging.INFO),
force=True)
logging.getLogger("httpx").setLevel(logging.WARNING)
logging.getLogger("httpcore").setLevel(logging.WARNING)
# Never let DEBUG runs write credentials into the 30-day rotating log:
# the websockets client logger emits the connect URI (Twelve Data puts
# the API key in the query string) and frame contents (Tiingo's auth
# frame carries the key) — 2026-08-04 audit, finding K47.
logging.getLogger("websockets").setLevel(logging.INFO)
logging.getLogger("websockets.client").setLevel(logging.INFO)
logger = logging.getLogger("telegram_bot")
TOKEN = telegram_token()
@@ -216,27 +203,6 @@ def _get_shared_dp() -> BaseDataProvider:
return _shared_dp
_streaming_dp: Optional[BaseDataProvider] = None
def _get_streaming_dp() -> BaseDataProvider:
"""Provider for the tick stream: config.json data_providers.streaming
when set (a SEPARATE instance — the candle cache stays on the active
provider), else the shared active provider. Reads app config at call
time, not the import-time _APP snapshot, so tests can swap it via
set_app_config()."""
global _streaming_dp
if _streaming_dp is None:
app = get_app_config()
if app.streaming_provider is None or \
app.streaming_provider == app.active_provider:
_streaming_dp = _get_shared_dp()
else:
_streaming_dp = make_data_provider(
PlatformConfig(), app.streaming_provider)
return _streaming_dp
# ── Signal formatting ─────────────────────────────────────────────────
_SIGNAL_EMOJI = {
@@ -406,19 +372,6 @@ def format_signal_message(report: SignalReport) -> str:
extra.append(f"📋 {ind_summary}")
for w in report.warnings:
extra.append(f"⚠️ {_escape_md(w)}")
if report.news_summary:
extra.append(f"📰 {_escape_md(report.news_summary)}")
if report.panel_verdict:
mark = {"AGREE": "✅", "OPPOSE": "⛔", "NEUTRAL": "➖"}.get(
report.panel_verdict, "")
extra.append(
f"🤖 AI Panel {mark} *{_escape_md(report.panel_verdict)}* "
f"({report.panel_confidence:.0f}%) — "
f"{_escape_md(report.panel_rationale)}")
if report.panel_takes:
votes = " · ".join(
f"{t['persona']}: {t['stance']}" for t in report.panel_takes)
extra.append(f" _{_escape_md(votes)}_")
if extra:
lines += [""] + extra
@@ -619,45 +572,6 @@ def _commit_alert(key: str, report: SignalReport) -> None:
_last_alert_setup.pop(key, None)
# Per-key locks serializing the _should_alert → send → _commit_alert
# window. The auto-scan loop and a concurrent breach handler share the
# "XAU/USD_15min" dedup key; without the lock both pass _should_alert
# while the other's send is still awaiting Telegram, and the same signal
# goes out twice (2026-08-04 audit H36). Per-key rather than one global
# lock so a slow send on one timeframe cannot head-of-line-block another
# timeframe's alert. Keys are symbol × TF, so the dict stays tiny.
_alert_locks: Dict[str, asyncio.Lock] = {}
def _alert_lock(key: str) -> asyncio.Lock:
lock = _alert_locks.get(key)
if lock is None:
lock = _alert_locks[key] = asyncio.Lock()
return lock
async def _send_alert(bot, chat_id: int, text: str) -> bool:
"""Markdown alert send with a plain-text fallback on parse failures,
mirroring _safe_edit (2026-08-04 audit H35 — alert paths previously
dropped the message on a BadRequest with only a warning logged).
Returns True when a message reached the chat by either attempt."""
try:
await bot.send_message(chat_id, text, parse_mode=ParseMode.MARKDOWN)
return True
except BadRequest as exc:
logger.warning(f"Markdown alert failed for chat {chat_id} ({exc}); "
f"retrying as plain text")
try:
await bot.send_message(chat_id, text)
return True
except Exception as exc2:
logger.warning(f"Failed to send alert to chat {chat_id}: {exc2}")
return False
except Exception as exc:
logger.warning(f"Failed to send alert to chat {chat_id}: {exc}")
return False
# ── Candle-boundary scheduler ────────────────────────────────────────
_autoscan_chats: Set[int] = set()
@@ -686,11 +600,8 @@ def _seconds_until_boundary(interval_minutes: int, buffer: int = 10) -> float:
elapsed_seconds = elapsed_minutes * 60 + now.second + now.microsecond / 1e6
interval_seconds = interval_minutes * 60
remaining = interval_seconds - elapsed_seconds + buffer
# NOTE: remaining > buffer always (elapsed < interval by construction);
# a call at the exact boundary instant targets the NEXT boundary —
# steady-state loops wake at boundary+buffer, so only a process
# started in the boundary microsecond skips one scan (2026-08-04
# audit I42; the old `remaining <= buffer` guard was unreachable).
if remaining <= buffer:
remaining += interval_seconds
return remaining
@@ -705,13 +616,7 @@ async def _scan_timeframe(
reports: List[SignalReport] = []
for i, result in enumerate(results):
if isinstance(result, Exception):
# gather(return_exceptions=True) means there is no active
# exception here — logger.exception would log "NoneType: None"
# instead of the real stack; pass the instance explicitly.
logger.error(
f"Auto-scan failed for {SCAN_PAIRS[i]} {tf.value}: {result}",
exc_info=result,
)
logger.exception(f"Auto-scan failed for {SCAN_PAIRS[i]} {tf.value}: {result}")
else:
reports.append(result)
@@ -720,58 +625,36 @@ async def _scan_timeframe(
_update_level_cache(reports)
candidates = [
actionable = [
r for r in reports
if r.final_signal != SignalStrength.NEUTRAL # same gate as breach path
and _passes_quality(r.signal_quality)
and _should_alert(f"{r.symbol}_{tf.value}", r)
]
for report in candidates:
key = f"{report.symbol}_{tf.value}"
# The lock spans check → send → commit so a concurrent breach
# handler on the same key cannot double-alert (H36).
async with _alert_lock(key):
if not _should_alert(key, report):
continue
# Panel AFTER the quality gate + dedup decision so no LLM
# spend on suppressed alerts. Runs on the scan executor to
# keep the event loop free; this key's alert lock is held
# for the panel's wall time (≤~25 s), which only delays a
# same-key duplicate that _should_alert would drop anyway.
await asyncio.get_running_loop().run_in_executor(
_executor, attach_panel, report)
sent_ok: Set[int] = set()
for chat_id in _signal_targets():
for i, report in enumerate(actionable):
detail = format_signal_message(report)
delivered = False
for chat_id in _signal_targets():
if await _send_alert(bot, chat_id, detail):
delivered = True
# Commit only when the alert reached at least one target;
# a fully failed send stays eligible for the next scan.
if delivered:
_commit_alert(key, report)
try:
await bot.send_message(chat_id, detail, parse_mode=ParseMode.MARKDOWN)
sent_ok.add(i)
except Exception as exc:
logger.warning(f"Failed to send signal for chat {chat_id}: {exc}")
# Commit fingerprints only for alerts that reached at least one target;
# a fully failed send stays eligible for the next scan.
for i, report in enumerate(actionable):
if i in sent_ok:
_commit_alert(f"{report.symbol}_{tf.value}", report)
# ── WebSocket level-breach monitor ──────────────────────────────────
# Level cache keyed symbol → timeframe → {level_name: price}, with a
# matching per-TF write timestamp. Keyed per TF (2026-08-04 audit H34)
# because every scan path writes here — the M5/M15/H1/H4 boundary loops,
# the breach rescan, the manual Scan-All button — and a single flat dict
# meant the last writer wiped the other timeframes' swing/EMA levels
# within minutes. Breach checks scan the union of all fresh TF entries.
_level_cache: Dict[str, Dict[str, Dict[str, float]]] = {}
_level_cache_ts: Dict[str, Dict[str, float]] = {}
_level_cache: Dict[str, Dict[str, float]] = {}
_level_cache_ts: Dict[str, float] = {}
_LEVEL_CACHE_TTL = 3600
_last_prices: Dict[str, float] = {}
_last_price_ts: Dict[str, float] = {}
_scan_cooldowns: Dict[str, float] = {}
# Breaches are edge-triggered (only the crossing tick fires), so one that
# lands while the symbol is inside the rescan cooldown would otherwise be
# dropped forever (H33b). Park it here; the tick loop fires it once the
# cooldown expires. symbol → (price, level_name, recorded_at).
_pending_breach: Dict[str, tuple] = {}
# A failed breach rescan shrinks the just-set cooldown to this retry
# window instead of silencing the symbol for the full cooldown (H33a).
_BREACH_RETRY_SECONDS = 30
_cfg = PlatformConfig()
_WS_COOLDOWN = _cfg.ws_cooldown_seconds
@@ -780,8 +663,6 @@ _breach_tasks: Set[asyncio.Task] = set()
def _update_level_cache(reports: List[SignalReport]) -> None:
"""Each report updates only its own timeframe's slot — an M5 scan can
no longer overwrite the H1/H4 swing levels (H34)."""
now = time.time()
for r in reports:
if r.primary_analysis and r.primary_analysis.key_levels:
@@ -790,31 +671,26 @@ def _update_level_cache(reports: List[SignalReport]) -> None:
if k in _LEVEL_KEYS
}
if levels:
tf = r.primary_analysis.timeframe
_level_cache.setdefault(r.symbol, {})[tf] = levels
_level_cache_ts.setdefault(r.symbol, {})[tf] = now
_level_cache[r.symbol] = levels
_level_cache_ts[r.symbol] = now
def _check_level_breach(symbol: str, price: float) -> Optional[str]:
"""Scan the union of every fresh timeframe's levels; returns
'<tf> <level_name>' (e.g. '15min swing_high_1') on a crossing so the
alert label says which timeframe's level broke."""
per_tf = _level_cache.get(symbol)
if not per_tf:
levels = _level_cache.get(symbol)
if not levels:
return None
cache_age = time.time() - _level_cache_ts.get(symbol, 0)
if cache_age > _LEVEL_CACHE_TTL:
return None
last = _last_prices.get(symbol)
if last is None:
return None
now = time.time()
ts_map = _level_cache_ts.get(symbol, {})
for tf, levels in per_tf.items():
if now - ts_map.get(tf, 0) > _LEVEL_CACHE_TTL:
continue # stale TF entry — skip, fresher TFs still count
for name, level in levels.items():
if (last < level <= price) or (last > level >= price):
return f"{tf} {name}"
for name, level in levels.items():
if (last < level <= price) or (last > level >= price):
return name
return None
@@ -829,17 +705,9 @@ def _cleanup_cooldowns() -> None:
async def _handle_breach(bot, pair_symbol: str, price: float, level_name: str) -> None:
now = time.time()
if now - _scan_cooldowns.get(pair_symbol, 0) < _WS_COOLDOWN:
# Park the crossing instead of dropping it — price holding beyond
# the level never re-fires the edge trigger, so without this the
# breach would be lost forever (H33b). The tick loop fires it
# once the cooldown expires; a newer crossing overwrites it.
_pending_breach[pair_symbol] = (price, level_name, now)
return
# Early-set on purpose: this is what stops concurrent breach tasks
# from stacking rescans. The failure path below rolls it back.
_scan_cooldowns[pair_symbol] = now
_pending_breach.pop(pair_symbol, None) # this crossing is being handled
display = PAIR_INFO.get(pair_symbol, {}).get("display", pair_symbol)
label = level_name.replace("_", " ").title()
logger.info(f"Level breach: {display} crossed {label} at {price} — rescanning M15")
@@ -849,46 +717,29 @@ async def _handle_breach(bot, pair_symbol: str, price: float, level_name: str) -
_update_level_cache([report])
except Exception:
logger.exception(f"Breach scan failed for {display}")
# Shrink the just-set cooldown to a short retry window so a
# transient fetch error doesn't silence the symbol for the full
# cooldown (H33a); the floor bounds the retry rate while the
# provider stays down. Re-park the breach so the tick loop
# retries it (setdefault: a newer crossing recorded meanwhile
# wins over this stale one).
retry = min(_BREACH_RETRY_SECONDS, _WS_COOLDOWN)
_scan_cooldowns[pair_symbol] = now - _WS_COOLDOWN + retry
_pending_breach.setdefault(pair_symbol, (price, level_name, now))
return
# Alert only when the rescan produced an actionable, changed signal —
# same gates as the auto-scanner, so a breach can't spam the channel.
if (report.final_signal == SignalStrength.NEUTRAL
or not _passes_quality(report.signal_quality)):
or not _passes_quality(report.signal_quality)
or not _should_alert(f"{pair_symbol}_{Timeframe.M15.value}", report)):
return
key = f"{pair_symbol}_{Timeframe.M15.value}"
# Lock spans check → send → commit; without it this handler and an
# in-flight M15 auto-scan both pass _should_alert and double-alert
# the same signal (H36).
async with _alert_lock(key):
if not _should_alert(key, report):
return
# Same post-gate panel attach as the auto-scan path (see
# _scan_timeframe for the spend/lock rationale).
await asyncio.get_running_loop().run_in_executor(
_executor, attach_panel, report)
header = (
f"⚡ *LEVEL BREAK* — {_escape_md(display)} crossed "
f"*{_escape_md(label)}* @ `{_fmt_price(price)}`\n\n"
)
header = (
f"⚡ *LEVEL BREAK* — {_escape_md(display)} crossed "
f"*{_escape_md(label)}* @ `{_fmt_price(price)}`\n\n"
)
sent = False
for chat_id in _signal_targets():
detail = header + format_signal_message(report)
sent = False
for chat_id in _signal_targets():
if await _send_alert(bot, chat_id, detail):
sent = True
if sent:
_commit_alert(key, report)
try:
await bot.send_message(chat_id, detail, parse_mode=ParseMode.MARKDOWN)
sent = True
except Exception as exc:
logger.warning(f"Failed to send breach alert to chat {chat_id}: {exc}")
if sent:
_commit_alert(f"{pair_symbol}_{Timeframe.M15.value}", report)
def _breach_task_done(task: asyncio.Task) -> None:
@@ -904,32 +755,22 @@ async def _ws_monitor(bot) -> None:
"""Level-breach tick monitor. The provider owns the connection and
protocol (`iter_ticks`); this loop owns reconnect/backoff and breach
dispatch. Providers without streaming quotes simply disable it."""
dp = _get_streaming_dp()
dp = _get_shared_dp()
if not dp.supports_streaming:
logger.info(
"Data provider %r has no streaming quotes — "
"level-breach monitor disabled", dp.name)
return
if getattr(dp, "_api_key", "unused") is None:
# Guard, not a traceback loop: without a key every connect
# attempt would raise and re-log a full traceback every ≤60s.
logger.warning(
"Streaming provider %r has no API key — "
"level-breach monitor disabled", dp.name)
return
backoff = 1
while _feed_active():
got_tick = False
try:
async for pair_symbol, price in dp.iter_ticks(SCAN_PAIRS):
if not got_tick:
# Reset backoff only once the connection actually
# produced data — resetting on connect let a
# rejected key or accept-then-close server pin the
# backoff at minimum forever (H38a/H38b).
got_tick = True
backoff = 1
def _on_connect() -> None:
nonlocal backoff
backoff = 1
async for pair_symbol, price in dp.iter_ticks(
SCAN_PAIRS, on_connect=_on_connect):
if not _feed_active():
break
@@ -938,32 +779,11 @@ async def _ws_monitor(bot) -> None:
_last_price_ts[pair_symbol] = time.time()
if breached:
# A fresh crossing supersedes any parked one.
_pending_breach.pop(pair_symbol, None)
task = asyncio.create_task(
_handle_breach(bot, pair_symbol, price, breached)
)
_breach_tasks.add(task)
task.add_done_callback(_breach_task_done)
elif pair_symbol in _pending_breach:
pend = _pending_breach[pair_symbol]
if time.time() - pend[2] > _LEVEL_CACHE_TTL:
# Ancient parked breach (feed gap/weekend) — an
# alert about an hours-old crossing would only
# mislead; the level cache it came from is stale
# anyway.
_pending_breach.pop(pair_symbol)
elif (time.time() - _scan_cooldowns.get(pair_symbol, 0)
>= _WS_COOLDOWN):
# Crossing parked during the cooldown: fire it now
# that the window expired — the edge trigger alone
# would have dropped it forever (H33b).
_pending_breach.pop(pair_symbol)
task = asyncio.create_task(
_handle_breach(bot, pair_symbol, pend[0], pend[1])
)
_breach_tasks.add(task)
task.add_done_callback(_breach_task_done)
_cleanup_cooldowns()
@@ -973,16 +793,6 @@ async def _ws_monitor(bot) -> None:
logger.exception(f"WebSocket error, reconnecting in {backoff}s")
await asyncio.sleep(backoff)
backoff = min(backoff * 2, 60)
else:
# Clean server close: the async-for ended without raising.
# This must back off and log like the error path — silently
# reconnecting with zero delay hot-loops against a server
# that accepts and immediately closes (H38a).
if _feed_active():
logger.warning(
f"WebSocket closed cleanly, reconnecting in {backoff}s")
await asyncio.sleep(backoff)
backoff = min(backoff * 2, 60)
logger.info("WebSocket monitor stopped")
@@ -1025,25 +835,15 @@ _ws_task: Optional[asyncio.Task] = None
def _start_scheduler(bot) -> None:
global _ws_task
# Per-TF respawn (2026-08-04 audit H37): drop finished loop tasks and
# recreate only the missing ones. The old all-or-nothing alive check
# left a single dead TF loop unmonitored forever while its siblings
# lived — and with the channel feed active, /autoscan never reaches
# _stop_scheduler, so nothing short of a process restart recovered it.
_autoscan_tasks[:] = [t for t in _autoscan_tasks if not t.done()]
alive_names = {t.get_name() for t in _autoscan_tasks}
started = []
for tf, interval in _AUTOSCAN_LOOPS:
name = f"candle_loop_{tf.name}"
if name in alive_names:
continue
_autoscan_tasks.append(
asyncio.create_task(_candle_loop(bot, tf, interval), name=name)
)
started.append(tf.name)
if started:
alive = [t for t in _autoscan_tasks if not t.done()]
if not alive:
_autoscan_tasks.clear()
for tf, interval in _AUTOSCAN_LOOPS:
_autoscan_tasks.append(
asyncio.create_task(_candle_loop(bot, tf, interval))
)
logger.info("Candle-boundary scheduler started (%s)",
"/".join(started))
"/".join(tf.name for tf, _ in _AUTOSCAN_LOOPS))
if _ws_task is None or _ws_task.done():
_ws_task = asyncio.create_task(_ws_monitor(bot))
@@ -1119,7 +919,6 @@ _HELP_TEXT = (
"/scan — Quick scan menu\n"
"/autoscan — Toggle auto-scan on/off\n"
"/status — Bot status, WS connection, live prices\n"
"/news — Net news sentiment score for XAU/USD\n"
"/cache — Show data cache age per pair/TF\n"
"/clearcache — Wipe data cache, force fresh fetch\n"
"/help — This message\n\n"
@@ -1138,91 +937,6 @@ async def cmd_help(update: Update, context: ContextTypes.DEFAULT_TYPE) -> None:
await update.message.reply_text(_HELP_TEXT, parse_mode=ParseMode.MARKDOWN)
def _fmt_age(ts: Optional[float]) -> str:
"""Compact age like '45s', '12m', '3.2h' for status lines."""
if not ts:
return "?"
s = time.time() - ts
if s < 90:
return f"{s:.0f}s"
if s < 5400:
return f"{s / 60:.0f}m"
return f"{s / 3600:.1f}h"
def _news_health_lines() -> List[str]:
"""News / calendar / DeepSeek source health for /status.
Reads the class-level `NewsEngine._source_health` written by the
scan-path fetches plus the LLM client's health stamps — display
only, never triggers a fetch. ⚠️ marks a degraded dependency;
details live in the rotating log (transition-logged WARNINGs)."""
lines = ["\n*News & AI:*"]
# Snapshot: a scan thread may insert a source's FIRST entry while we
# iterate (dict-changed-size RuntimeError); entry mutation is safe.
for _ in range(3):
try:
sh = dict(NewsEngine._source_health)
break
except RuntimeError:
continue
else:
sh = {}
if not sh:
lines.append(" _no news cycle yet (fills after first scan)_")
else:
cal = sh.get("calendar")
ff = sh.get("calendar:forexfactory")
if cal:
if NewsEngine.source_is_failing(cal):
lines.append(f" ⚠️ Calendar: unavailable — {cal['detail']}"
f" ({_fmt_age(cal['err'])})")
elif NewsEngine.source_is_failing(ff):
lines.append(f" ⚠️ Calendar: {cal['extra']} — ForexFactory"
f" down: {ff['detail']} ({_fmt_age(ff['err'])})")
else:
lines.append(f" ✅ Calendar: {cal['extra']}"
f" ({_fmt_age(cal['ok'])} ago)")
heads = sh.get("headlines")
if heads:
failing = NewsEngine.source_is_failing(heads)
mark = "⚠️" if failing else "✅"
detail = f" — {heads['detail']}" if failing else ""
ts = heads["err"] if failing else heads["ok"]
lines.append(f" {mark} Headlines: {heads['extra']}{detail}"
f" ({_fmt_age(ts)} ago)")
for name, entry in sorted(sh.items()):
if name.startswith("rss:") and NewsEngine.source_is_failing(entry):
lines.append(f" ⚠️ {name[4:]}: {entry['detail']}"
f" ({_fmt_age(entry['err'])})")
client = get_llm_client()
if not client.available:
lines.append(" DeepSeek: off — keyword scoring only")
else:
# The client's counter only resets on the first call of a new
# UTC day — show 0 (not yesterday's total, or a phantom
# cap-exhausted warning) until that reset happens.
today = datetime.now(timezone.utc).date()
used = client._count if client._count_day == today else 0
cap = client._daily_cap
scored = len(NewsEngine._llm_sent_cache)
err = client.last_error
if used >= cap:
lines.append(f" ⚠️ DeepSeek: daily cap {cap} exhausted —"
" keyword fallback until UTC midnight")
elif err and err[0] > client.last_ok:
lines.append(f" ⚠️ DeepSeek: last call failed ({err[1]},"
f" {_fmt_age(err[0])}) — keyword fallback")
else:
lines.append(f" ✅ DeepSeek: {used}/{cap} calls today,"
f" {scored} headlines scored")
if get_app_config().agent_panel_settings.get("enabled", False):
ph = panel_health()
lines.append(f" 🤖 AI panel: {ph['used_today']}/{ph['cap']}"
" panels today")
return lines
def _status_text() -> str:
lines = ["📊 *ForexBot2 Status*\n"]
@@ -1237,8 +951,7 @@ def _status_text() -> str:
lines.append(f"📢 Channel feed: *on* (`{CHANNEL_ID}`)")
if _ws_task and not _ws_task.done():
provider = _streaming_dp.name if _streaming_dp else "?"
lines.append(f"📡 WebSocket: *connected* ({provider})")
lines.append("📡 WebSocket: *connected*")
else:
lines.append("❌ WebSocket: *disconnected*")
@@ -1256,16 +969,9 @@ def _status_text() -> str:
lines.append("\n_No live prices yet (WS not streaming)_")
cached_pairs = len(_level_cache)
cached_levels = sum(
len(levels) for per_tf in _level_cache.values()
for levels in per_tf.values()
)
cached_levels = sum(len(v) for v in _level_cache.values())
if cached_levels:
all_ts = [
ts for per_tf in _level_cache_ts.values()
for ts in per_tf.values()
]
oldest_age = time.time() - min(all_ts) if all_ts else 0
oldest_age = time.time() - min(_level_cache_ts.values()) if _level_cache_ts else 0
lines.append(f"\n*Level Cache:* {cached_levels} levels across {cached_pairs} pairs (oldest {oldest_age:.0f}s)")
else:
lines.append("\n*Level Cache:* empty — breach alerts start after first candle scan")
@@ -1281,8 +987,6 @@ def _status_text() -> str:
if active_breach:
lines.append(f"*Breach tasks:* {active_breach} running")
lines.extend(_news_health_lines())
lines.append(f"\n*Alert quality:* {_alert_min_quality}+ "
f"| re-arm {_ALERT_REARM_SECONDS // 60}m")
return "\n".join(lines)
@@ -1293,38 +997,6 @@ async def cmd_status(update: Update, context: ContextTypes.DEFAULT_TYPE) -> None
await update.message.reply_text(_status_text(), parse_mode=ParseMode.MARKDOWN)
def _news_text(context: FundamentalContext, engine: NewsEngine) -> str:
net, desc = engine.get_pair_sentiment(XAUUSD, context)
if round(net, 2) == 0:
net = 0.0 # a tiny negative mean would render as "-0.00"
lines = [
"📰 *XAU/USD News Score*\n",
f"*Net score:* `{net:+.2f}` — {desc}",
]
# A cold/failed feed yields 0.00 "Neutral" — flag it so a data outage
# can't be mistaken for a genuinely neutral read.
if not context.news_sentiment:
lines.append("_no scored headlines yet — score defaults to 0_")
return "\n".join(lines)
def _news_report_sync() -> str:
engine = NewsEngine(PlatformConfig().news)
return _news_text(engine.get_fundamental_context(), engine)
@_owner_only
async def cmd_news(update: Update, context: ContextTypes.DEFAULT_TYPE) -> None:
msg = await update.message.reply_text("⏳ Fetching news…")
loop = asyncio.get_running_loop()
try:
text = await loop.run_in_executor(_executor, _news_report_sync)
except Exception as exc:
logger.exception("News fetch failed")
text = f"❌ News fetch failed: {_escape_md(str(exc))}"
await msg.edit_text(text, parse_mode=ParseMode.MARKDOWN)
@_owner_only
async def cmd_cache(update: Update, context: ContextTypes.DEFAULT_TYPE) -> None:
dp = _get_shared_dp()
@@ -1540,7 +1212,6 @@ async def _post_init(app: Application) -> None:
("scan", "Quick scan buttons"),
("autoscan", "Toggle auto-scan on/off"),
("status", "Bot status, WS connection, live prices"),
("news", "XAU/USD net news sentiment score"),
("cache", "Show data cache age per pair/TF"),
("clearcache", "Wipe data cache, force fresh fetch"),
("help", "All commands"),
@@ -1570,11 +1241,7 @@ async def _post_init(app: Application) -> None:
logger.error(f"Initial scan failed for {SCAN_PAIRS[i]}: {r}")
if init_reports:
_update_level_cache(init_reports)
n_levels = sum(
len(levels) for per_tf in _level_cache.values()
for levels in per_tf.values()
)
logger.info(f"Level cache populated: {n_levels} levels")
logger.info(f"Level cache populated: {sum(len(v) for v in _level_cache.values())} levels")
except Exception:
logger.exception("Initial scan failed — WS will wait for first candle scan")
@@ -1674,7 +1341,6 @@ def main() -> None:
app.add_handler(CommandHandler("scan", cmd_scan))
app.add_handler(CommandHandler("help", cmd_help))
app.add_handler(CommandHandler("status", cmd_status))
app.add_handler(CommandHandler("news", cmd_news))
app.add_handler(CommandHandler("autoscan", cmd_autoscan))
app.add_handler(CommandHandler("cache", cmd_cache))
app.add_handler(CommandHandler("clearcache", cmd_clearcache))
+15 -2818
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